Spectral indicators of economic risk

Abstract

Subject. The article addresses issues of efficient risk management and regulation of economic process as a whole. Objectives. The purpose of this work is to improve the methodology and methods for measuring economic risk, increase the reliability and accuracy of its assessment, solve the problem of risk measurement with limited statistical information and unknown law of distribution of the studied economic value. Methods. The study employs the apparatus of the spectral theory of random processes. Results. I developed spectral indicators enabling to measure risk in real time, assess possible deviations of the economic value from the expected value and the quality of the economic process model. The spectral analysis made it possible to move from the study of the statistical model of economic risk to the study of its image in the integral Fourier transform. The spectral approach to risk assessment is verified on the innovation project case. Conclusions. Spectral risk indicators take into account the dynamics of the economic process. They do not require an expert assessment of the probability and knowledge of the law of distribution of the risk-related economic value. They also enable improved accuracy of risk measurement.