Price Forecasting Models Research Articles

Developing a hybrid forecasting system for agricultural commodity prices (case study: Thailand rice free on board price)

ABSTRACT: Forecast the price of agricultural goods is a beneficial action for farmers, marketing agents, consumers, and policymakers. Today, managing this product security requires price forecasting models that are both efficient and reliable for a country’s import and export. In the last few decades, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been widely used in economics time series forecasting. Recently, many of the time series observations presented in economics have been clearly shown to be nonlinear, Machine learning (ML) modelling, conversely, offers a potential price forecasting technique that is more flexible given the limited data available in most countries’ economies. In this research, a hybrid price forecasting model has been used, through a novel clustering technique, a new cluster selection algorithm and a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN), which had many advantages and using monthly time series of Thai rice FOB price form November 1987 to October 2017. The empirical results of this study showed that the value of root mean square error (RMSE) equals 14.37 and the Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) equals 4.09% for the hybrid model. The evaluation results of proposed method and comparison its performance with four benchmark models, by monthly time series of Thailand rice FOB price from November 1987 to October 2017 showed the outperform of proposed method.

Improved CEEMDAN, GA, and SVR Model for Oil Price Forecasting.

Accurate prediction of crude oil prices (COPs) is a challenge for academia and industry. Therefore, the present research developed a new CEEMDAN-GA-SVR hybrid model to predict COPs, incorporating complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), a genetic algorithm (GA), and support vector regression machine (SVR). First, our team utilized CEEMDAN to realize the decomposition of a raw series of COPs into a group of comparatively simpler subseries. Second, SVR was utilized to predict values for every decomposed subseries separately. Owing to the intricate parametric settings of SVR, GA was employed to achieve the parametric optimisation of SVR during forecast. Then, our team assembled the forecasted values of the entire subseries as the forecasted values of the CEEMDAN-GA-SVR model. After a series of experiments and comparison of the results, we discovered that the CEEMDAN-GA-SVR model remarkably outperformed single and ensemble benchmark models, as displayed by a case study finished based on a time series of weekly Brent COPs.

Research on Stock Price Forecasting Model based on BiLSTM-SVR-based Hybrid Model

Research on Stock Price Forecasting Model based on BiLSTM-SVR-based Hybrid Model

A Multiscale Electricity Price Forecasting Model Based on Tensor Fusion and Deep Learning

The price of electricity is an important factor in the electricity market. Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is very important to all competing electricity market parties. Decision-making in the electricity market is highly dependent on electricity prices, making an EPF model an important part of the orderly and efficient operation of the electricity market. Especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, the prices of raw materials for electricity production, such as coal, have risen sharply. Forecasting electricity prices has become particularly important. Currently, existing EPF prediction models face two main challenges: First, how to integrate multiscale electricity price data to obtain a higher prediction accuracy. Second, how to solve the problem of data noise caused by the fusion of EPF samples and multiscale data. To solve the above problems, we innovatively propose a tensor decomposition method to integrate multiscale electricity price data and use L1 regularization and wavelet transform to remove data noise. In general, this paper proposes a deep learning EPF prediction model, named the WT_TDLSTM model, based on tensor decomposition, a wavelet transform, and long short-term memory (LSTM). Among them, the LSTM method is used to predict electricity prices. We conducted experiments on three datasets. The experimental results of three data prove that the WT_TDLSTM model is better than the compared EPF model. The indicators of MSE and RMSE are 33.65–99.97% better than the comparison model. We believe that the WT_TDLSTM model is a good supplement to the EPF model.

A hybrid model for multi-step coal price forecasting using decomposition technique and deep learning algorithms

Accurate and reliable coal price prediction is of great significance to enhance the stability of the coal market. Numerous methods have been developed to improve the prediction performance. However, most of the studies adopt single model for coal price forecasting, and their accuracy and applicability are usually restricted. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid VMD-A-LSTM-SVR model to achieve accurate multi-step ahead prediction of coal price. The proposed model consists of three valuable strategies. First, variational mode decomposition (VMD) decomposes the original coal price into several relatively regular sub modes to reduce the non-stationarity and uncertainty of the data. Second, the long short-term memory (LSTM) integrated with attention mechanism trains and predicts the decomposed modes individually to better capture the temporal information of historical data. Lastly, a support vector regression (SVR) model ensembles the predicted results of each mode into the final forecasted coal price. The experimental results of three typical coal price datasets demonstrate that the proposed strategies are all valuable for improving the forecasting performance. Moreover, the proposed model outperforms all state-of-the-art baseline models in terms of both model accuracy and stability. Extensive cross-comparisons of performance between models clearly indicate that the proposed hybrid algorithm is more effective and practical for coal price forecasting.

Exploring Time-Series Forecasting Models for Dynamic Pricing in Digital Signage Advertising

Audience attention is vital in Digital Signage Advertising (DSA), as it has a significant impact on the pricing decision to advertise on those media. Various environmental factors affect the audience attention level toward advertising signage. Fixed-price strategies, which have been applied in DSA for pricing decisions, are generally inefficient at maximizing the potential profit of the service provider, as the environmental factors that could affect the audience attention are changing fast and are generally not considered in the current pricing solutions in a timely manner. Therefore, the time-series forecasting method is a suitable pricing solution for DSA, as it improves the pricing decision by modeling the changes in the environmental factors and audience attention level toward signage for optimal pricing. However, it is difficult to determine an optimal price forecasting model for DSA with the increasing number of available time-series forecasting models in recent years. Based on the 84 research articles reviewed, the data characteristics analysis in terms of linearity, stationarity, volatility, and dataset size is helpful in determining the optimal model for time-series price forecasting. This paper has reviewed the widely used time-series forecasting models and identified the related data characteristics of each model. A framework is proposed to demonstrate the model selection process for dynamic pricing in DSA based on its data characteristics analysis, paving the way for future research of pricing solutions for DSA.

A multi-factor integrated model for carbon price forecasting: Market interaction promoting carbon emission reduction

Reasonable carbon price can effectively promote the low-carbon transformation of economy. The future carbon price has an important guiding significance for enterprises and the country. However, the nonlinear and high noise characteristics inherent in carbon price make them challenging to predict accurately. A hybrid decomposition and integration prediction model is proposed using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, an improved grey model and an extreme learning machine to solve this problem. First, a large number of factors that influence carbon price are collected by meta-analysis. The final input is selected through a two-stage feature selection process. Second, the HP filter is used to decompose the input into long-term trends and short-term fluctuations predicted by the improved GM and ELM, respectively. Finally, the two prediction sequences are compared to obtain the final result. European Union Allowances futures price data are applied for empirical analysis. The results show that the prediction performance of this model is better than the other 10 benchmark models, the T-bill, Stoxx50, S&P clean energy index and Brent oil price in the financial and energy markets are helpful in the carbon price's prediction. T-bill affects carbon price frequently, Stoxx50 has a negative correlation with the carbon price in the influence period. Under normal circumstances, the S&P clean energy index is positively correlated with the carbon price. However, when the economic situation is depressed, resulting in a short-term negative correlation between them. In general, carbon market is significantly affected by cross spill over between different markets. The method not only improves the accuracy of carbon price forecast, but also the application of the improved GM explains the reasons for the change of carbon price, which is helpful to promote the realization of carbon neutralization by market-oriented means.

Electricity demand and price forecasting model for sustainable smart grid using comprehensive long short term memory

ABSTRACT This paper proposes an electricity demand and price forecast model of the smart city large datasets using a single comprehensive Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based on a sequence-to-sequence network. Real electricity market data from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Several simulations with different configurations are executed on actual data to produce reliable results. The validation results indicate that the devised model is a better option to forecast the electricity demand and price with an acceptably smaller error. A comparison of the proposed model is also provided with a few existing models, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Regression Tree (RT), and Neural Nonlinear Autoregressive network with Exogenous variables (NARX). Compared to SVM, RT, and NARX, the performance indices, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the proposed forecasting model has been improved by 11.25%, 20%, and 33.5% respectively considering demand, and by 12.8%, 14.5%, and 47% respectively considering the price; similarly, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) has been improved by 14%, 22.5%, and 32.5% respectively considering demand, and by 8.4%, 21% and 61% respectively considering price. Additionally, the proposed model can produce reliable forecast results without large historical datasets.

THE EFFECT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON STOCK PRICES WITH THE EVENT WINDOW APPROACH: A CASE STUDY OF STATE GAS COMPANIES, IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

Stock price data at State Gas Company is defined as the time-series data comprising varying volatility and heteroscedasticity. One of the best models used to solve the problem of heteroscedasticity is the GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) model. Therefore, this study aims to build the most suitable model for predicting the 186 days before and 176 days after the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as to provide recommendations to reduce the impact of daily stock price movements. Data were obtained by examining the daily stock price data in Indonesian National Gas Companies from 2019 to 2020. The study also discusses the Event Window, with the best model identified as AR (1) -GARCH (1,1). The result showed that an error of less than 0.0015 is AR (1) - GARCH (1,1), provided the best model for price forecasting of Indonesian National Gas Companies.Keywords: Stock Price, Heteroscedasticity, GARCH Model, Event WindowJEL Classifications: C5, O42, Q4, Q47DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10999

Danish partnership sets out to build world's first commercial scale green ammonia plant

Electricity price forecasting is essential for the market participants in their decision making. Nevertheless, the accuracy of such forecasting cannot be guaranteed due to the high variability of the price data. For this reason, in many cases, rather than merely point forecasting results, market participants are more interested in the probabilistic price forecasting results, i.e., the prediction intervals of the electricity price. Focusing on this issue, this paper proposes a new model for the probabilistic electricity price forecasting. This model is based on the active learning technique and the variational heteroscedastic Gaussian process (VHGP). It provides the heteroscedastic Gaussian prediction intervals, which effectively quantify the heteroscedastic uncertainties associated with the price data. Because the high computational effort of VHGP hinders its application to the large-scale electricity price forecasting tasks, we design an active learning algorithm to select a most informative training subset from the whole available training set. By constructing the forecasting model on this smaller subset, the computational efforts can be significantly reduced. In this way, the practical applicability of the proposed model is enhanced. The forecasting performance and the computational time of the proposed model are evaluated using the real-world electricity price data, which is obtained from the ANEM, PJM, and New England ISO.

Electricity Price Forecasting in European Day Ahead Markets: A Greedy Consideration of Market Integration

In this manuscript we explore European feature importance in Day Ahead Market (DAM) price forecasting models, and show that model performance can deteriorate when too many features are included due to over-fitting. We propose a greedy algorithm to search over candidate countries for European features to be used in a DAM price forecasting model, that can be applied to several regression and machine learning modelling methodologies. We apply the algorithm to build price forecasting models for the Dutch market, using candidate countries selected through an integrated analysis based on open-source European electricity market data. Feature importance is visualised using an Auto Regressive and Random Forest model. We explain these results using cross-border flow and DAM price data. Two types of models (LEAR and the Deep Neural Network) are considered for the DAM price forecasting with and without European features. We show that in the Dutch case, taking European market integration into account improves the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the best performing DAM price forecasting model by 3.1%, the relative MAE (rMAE) by 3.85%, and the Symmetrical Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE) by 0.31 p.p., compared to the best forecasting model without European features. Through statistical testing we show that European features improve the accuracy of the forecasts with statistical significance.

A Novel Improved Particle Swarm Optimization With Long-Short Term Memory Hybrid Model for Stock Indices Forecast

Stock market volatility has a significant impact on many economic and financial activities in the world. Forecasting stock price movement plays an important role in setting an investment strategy or determining the right timing for trading. However, stock price movements are noisy, nonlinear, and chaotic. It is difficult to forecast stock trends for improving return on investment. Here, we proposed a novel improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) and long-short term memory (LSTM) hybrid model for stock price forecasting. An adaptive mutation factor was used as a parameter for model optimization to avoid premature convergence to a local optimum. Furthermore, we presented a nonlinear approach to improve the inertia weight of the particle swarm optimization and then used the IPSO model to optimize the hyperparameters of LSTM. The experimental results showed that the proposed model outperformed the other related baseline models: support-vector regression, LSTM and PSO-LSTM on the Australian stock market index. These results indicated the proposed model possesses high reliability and good forecasting capability.

Investigation on effect of solar energy generation on electricity price forecasting

Penetration of renewable energy resources into grid is necessary to meet the elevated demand of electricity. In view of this penetration of solar and wind power increasing immensely across the globe. Solar energy is widely expanding in terms of generation and capacity addition due its better predictability over wind energy. Electricity pricing is one of the important aspects for power system planning and it felicitates information for the electricity bidder for accurate electricity generation and resource allocation. The important task is to forecast the electricity price accurately in grid interactive environment. This task is tedious in renewable integrated market due to intermittency issue. In this paper, investigation has been done on the effect of solar energy generation on electricity price forecasting. Different state of the art Machine learning (ML) models have been applied and compared with LSTM model for electricity price forecasting and the evaluation of the impact of solar energy generation on electricity price has been done. During the investigation it was found from the results that the LSTM model outperform all other models and impact of solar energy generation on electricity price is evaluated using forecasting metrics. The forecasted electricity price considering the factor of solar energy generation was lower as compared with the forecast without solar energy generation. The reliability test of the MAPE values has been performed by calculating confidence interval for proposed model.

Stock price forecasting and news sentiment analysis model using artificial neural network

The stock market is highly volatile, and the prediction of stock prices has always been an area of interest to many statisticians and researchers. This study is an attempt to predict the prices of stock using artificial neural network (ANN). Three models have been built, one for the future prediction of stock prices based on previous trends, the second for prediction of next day closing price based on today's opening price, and the third one analyses the sentiment of news articles and gives scores based on the news impact. ANN is trained with the historical data using R-studio platform which is then used to predict the future values. Our experimental results for various stock prices showed that the model is effective using ANN.

Study on the application of LSTM-LightGBM Model in stock rise and fall prediction

This paper proposes a hybrid financial time series forecast model based on LSTM and LightGBM, namely LSTM_LightGBM model. Use the LightGBM model to train the processed stock historical data set, and save the training results. Then the opening price, closing price, highest price, lowest price, trading volume and adjusted closing price are separately input into the LSTM model for prediction. The prediction result of each attribute is used as the test set of the prediction after LightGBM training. Constantly adjust the parameters of each model, and finally get the optimal stock price forecast model. The model is validated with the rise and fall of AAPL stock. Through the comparison of evaluation index root mean square error RMSE, mean absolute error MAE, prediction accuracy Accuracy and f1_score. It is found that the LSTM_LightGBM model exhibits stable and better prediction performance in the stock prediction. That is to say, the LSTM_LightGBM model proposed in this paper is stable and feasible in the stock price fluctuation forecast.

Electricity price forecast model based on machine learning

Prognoza prețului la energie electrică a devenit un subiect foarte important de la liberalizarea pieței de electricitate din România. Participanții la piață au nevoie de un model bun de prognoza a prețurilor pe termen scurt pentru a licita în piață cea mai bună ofertă. Din cauza volatilității ridicate și a creșterilor puternice a prețurilor, este […]

A Gold Futures Price Forecast Model Based on SGRU-AM

As the leading component of the financial market, the price formation mechanism of gold futures has been attracting extra attention of financiers and scholars. However, the data of gold futures price belongs to time series, and its forecast is very challenging owing to its chaotic, noisy, and non-stationary characteristics in data. A new forecast model named SGRU-AM, based on the special gated recurrent unit (SGRU) and attention mechanism (AM) is proposed in this paper to tackle these challenges. SGRU is the rectified model of gated recurrent unit (GRU) though executing the 1-tanh function on the reset gate output of the basic GRU to transform the value range of the reset gate value and adjusting the memory ratio between the current moment and the previous moment. Firstly, SGRU has the advantage of capturing long-distance information and can forecast the closing price of gold futures in the next trading day. Then, AM is introduced to adjust the SGRU time dimension’s feature expression, so that the model can obtain more comprehensive feature information, learn the importance of current local sequence features and improve the forecast accuracy. Taking China’s gold futures as an example, the gold futures data of the Shanghai Futures Exchange are selected from January 9, 2008, to May 31, 2021. Compared with the baseline methods, the experimental results show that SGRU-AM has the best performance among all baseline models in forecast efficiency and forecast accuracy.

Sentiment Aware Stock Price Forecasting using an SA-RNN-LBL Learning Model

Stock market historical information is often utilized in technical analyses for identifying and evaluating patterns that could be utilized to achieve profits in trading. Although technical analysis utilizing various measures has been proven to be helpful for forecasting and predicting price trends, its utilization in formulating trading orders and rules in an automated system is complex due to the indeterminate nature of the rules. Moreover, it is hard to define a specific combination of technical measures that identify better trading rules and points, since stocks might be affected by different external factors. Thus, it is important to incorporate investors’ sentiments in forecasting operations, considering dynamically the varying stock behavior. This paper presents a sentiment aware stock forecasting model using a Log BiLinear (LBL) model for learning short term stock market sentiment patterns, and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for learning long-term stock market sentiment patterns. The Sentiment Aware Stock Price Forecasting (SASPF) model achieves a much superior performance compared to standard deep learning based stock price forecasting models.

The role of text-extracted investor sentiment in Chinese stock price prediction with the enhancement of deep learning

Whether investor sentiment affects stock prices is an issue of long-standing interest for economists. We conduct a comprehensive study of the predictability of investor sentiment, which is measured directly by extracting expectations from online user-generated content (UGC) on the stock message board of Eastmoney.com in the Chinese stock market. We consider the influential factors in prediction, including the selections of different text classification algorithms, price forecasting models, time horizons, and information update schemes. Using comparisons of the long short-term memory (LSTM) model, logistic regression, support vector machine, and Naïve Bayes model, the results show that daily investor sentiment contains predictive information only for open prices, while the hourly sentiment has two hours of leading predictability for closing prices. Investors do update their expectations during trading hours. Moreover, our results reveal that advanced models, such as LSTM, can provide more predictive power with investor sentiment only if the inputs of a model contain predictive information.

Improving strategic management through risk analysis: small palm (Elaeis guineensis) oil industrializers, Central America

Introduction. Palm cultivation allows oil to be obtained for human and industrial consumption. Some of its development has been achieved through associations of agricultural producers, who have had access to financing to build industrial plants for oil extraction and refinement, which is of great importance to the economy developing countries. Objective. To demonstrate how strategic and risk management influence the profitability and value of the small palm oil industrializer business. Materials and methods. Financial, technical, market, and production indicators were used in a price forecast model. The Monte Carlo simulation method was performed and a time series model was fitted to forecast the international price of palm oil. Subsequently, a univariate structural econometric model was adjusted to forecast revenue based on international price and other variables. Finally, a parameterized cash flow was developed that incorporated the results of the previous models to estimate the value of the business. Results. The international oil price forecast showed high volatility that directly affected the organization’s revenue forecasts and conveyed its effect to cash flows. The value of the business and equity was negative, and in the face of debt restructuring scenarios and the elimination of unproductive assets, they improved considerably. Conclusion. Low-diversified palm oil production companies had a high exposure to changes in international prices which, together with high levels of debt for fixed asset investments with long recovery periods, affect their cash flow, the value of the company, and its assets.