Policy Analysis Model Research Articles

Is inflation caused by deteriorating inflation expectations or excessive monetary growth?

AbstractThe near‐universal practice of inflation targeting has strengthened the belief of central banks that all that is needed to control inflation is to anchor expectations with a credible inflation target. The use of Taylor rule augmented DSGE models for policy analysis and forecasting adds credence to the view that, provided inflation expectations remain stable, actual inflation will be driven by expectations. The ultimate drivers of inflation are subsidiary to the central bank operation of acting on inflation expectations for the control of inflation. This article poses the question whether inflation is caused by deteriorating inflation expectations or excessive monetary growth. It takes as its theoretical inspiration Friedman's theory of nominal income determination. We use quarterly data of one‐year‐ahead inflation expectations produced by the Bank of England, and medium‐run inflation expectations backed out of five‐year bond yields as measures of long‐term inflation expectations. To this we add actual inflation, nominal GDP, and M4 to define a four‐variable VAR. The results reveal that M4 Granger causes inflation and inflation expectations, and a variance decomposition of inflation shows that while inflation expectations help to drive inflation, after a period of between five and eight quarters money supply dominates the variance decomposition.

A análise do ciclo das políticas: uma ferramenta para Assistentes Sociais

This article aims to present some theoretical concepts and models of public policy analysis. The aim is to provide social workers with a theoretical analysis of the social policy process with special relevance to the model of analysis of the policy cycle in phases or moments. This option is related to the perspective of the social worker as an implementing agent of public policy, following the perspective of Michael Lipsky (1976, 2010), who considers implementers as active agents with influence on policy, as real "policy makers". Thus, the article presents the three phases of the cycle - formulation, implementation and evaluation - in order to present a general framework that can be operationalised and used as a tool to analyse the policies that these professionals implement. Facing the need to analyse the policy one implements contributes to the politicisation of intervention, through the mobilisation of power in the struggle of forces that characterise the social field, to combat inequality and defend rights and social justice. If this challenge is not taken up, the social services profession may be assumed to be merely executive, abdicating its propositional function and its active role in the formulation, implementation and evaluation of social policies.  

Models and muddles: comment on ‘Calibration of agricultural risk programming models using positive mathematical programming’

There is an emerging strand in the agricultural economics literature which examines the calibration of risk programming models using the principles of Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP). In a recent contribution to this journal, Liu et al. (2020) compare three different PMP approaches and attempt to find the ‘most practical’ method for calibrating risk programming models to be used in policy analysis. In this article, we argue that the comparison design by Liu et al. (2020) is problematic, as it is based on inappropriate metrics and it ignores recent advancements in PMP. This word of caution intends to provide constructive criticism and aims at contributing to the use of risk programming models in policy analysis.

Analysing land policy processes with stages model: Land policy cases of Ethiopia and Rwanda

Land policies are formulated with the goal of addressing land use management challenges. Therefore, a thorough investigation is required to assess effectiveness of land policy processes. The unknown land use policy effectiveness is how and where the formulation and identification of land use problems affect the throughput of policy implementation. The main objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of land policy processes using models of public policy analysis. The study analyses how the stages model could be useful for analysis, and in which areas the advocacy coalition framework (ACF) could enhance the analysis. For comparative insights, land policy cases of Ethiopia and Rwanda were used. Data on land policy processes in the two cases were gathered from literature and data collected from field. The analysis with the two models shows that the effectiveness of executing land use policy processes does not only rely on the conventional cycle and sequence of land use policy implementation steps (i.e. identification of the problem, formulation of the solution, execution of the solution). Instead, during the problem formulation certain dynamics occur which may prevent finding the right and only solution. The stages model is useful for analyzing manifestations as they occur along processes, and the ACF is required as a valuable model to enhance analysis by understanding the cause of manifestations. This study would impact the research method for analyzing effectiveness of land policy processes and improving practices of policy making on the basis of good land governance and public administration perspective.

Large-scale agricultural investment in Ethiopia: Development, challenges and policy responses

In 1991, Ethiopia’s development strategy positioned smallholder farmers in a vital role in increasing agricultural productivity that could serve as a growth engine for the overall economic development of the country. However, the incorporation of agricultural commercialization as a development strategy in 2005 brought an influx of large-scale agricultural investment (LSAI) in Ethiopia and took away the special role that smallholder farmers had previously played. This paper critically analyzes how rural land issues, LSAI, and development challenges are addressed by the agricultural policy and how gaps of institutional capacity with regards to LSAI in Ethiopia are managed and monitored. This qualitative study uses document analysis, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and personal observation methods to explore processes, activities, and events found in society; the study relies on Bacchi’s (2009) model of policy analysis known as ‘What is the Problem Represented to be’ (WPR). On the basis of this approach, failure to address ‘rural land rights’ has been determined as a core problem in the policy, which has resulted in competition for land use rights among smallholder farmers, pointing out the lack of preparedness and inability of the policy and all government institutions to handle socio-economic disruptions related to the expansion and development of LSAI in Ethiopia. Reconsidering constitutional and highly politicized land tenure security will be of paramount importance in bringing about agricultural transformation in Ethiopia.

A brief history of special education policy on the inclusion of students with intellectual disabilities in Saudi Arabia

AbstractBackgroundThe demand for educational and social inclusion of children with intellectual disabilities continues to grow throughout the world. Factors contributing to the increasing demand include family advocacy efforts, shifting views about the nature of disability, and increased international recognition of the rights of children with disabilities. In the 1970s, Saudi Arabia began investing in educational services and supports for students with disabilities in both segregated and mainstream education settings.MethodsPolicies for children with intellectual disabilities were identified and analysed using the disability policy analysis model recommended by Turnbull & Stowe (2014). Then in two subsequent rounds of analysis, two other researchers reviewed, confirmed, and verified the conclusions.FindingsSaudi Arabia's recent policy provisions for children with disabilities have included an emphasis on inclusion in general education schools. However, as with many countries, these policies have not yet been systematically implemented. Many students with more complex learning and behavioural needs continue to be excluded from general education classrooms.ConclusionRecommendations to support the implementation of inclusive educational services for students with intellectual disabilities in Saudi Arabia are provided.

Validation of educational and research policy analysis model model in Gorgan University of Medical Sciences (based on training and research courses of professional technical organization)

Validation of educational and research policy analysis model model in Gorgan University of Medical Sciences (based on training and research courses of professional technical organization)

A Simple Macro-Fiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Cambodia

usiness cycle, Fiscal policy, Cambodia, Forecasting, Simulation, Debt management. Macroeconomic management in many developing countries is often heavily dependent on fiscal policies. This paper develops a semi-structural macro-fiscal model for simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies in Cambodia. The model is calibrated to capture key characteristics of Cambodia’s economy and serves as a tool for scenario analysis. We demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of the macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. The model’s results conform with past empirical analyses of the Cambodian economy and generate intuitive and easy-to-understand policy scenarios. Complemented with near-term forecasting tools and expert judgment, the dynamics of the model help to inform policymakers about medium-term transmission channels and thus guide policy advice. In particular, the results could serve as an input for the country’s medium-term fiscal framework and debt sustainability analysis.

The Climate PoLicy ANalysis (C-PLAN) Model, Version 1.0

This paper documents Version 1.0 of the Climate PoLicy ANalysis (C-PLAN) model and presents results for the model's baseline and a policy scenario. The C-PLAN model is a global, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model tailored to the economic and emissions characteristics of Aotearoa/New Zealand. Distinguishing features in the model include methane-reducing technologies for livestock, bioheat from forestry residues, and explicit representation of output-based allocations of emissions permits. The model was built for the New Zealand Climate Change Commission (CCC) to inform policy advice provided to the government. The computer code for the model and instructions for reproducing results used by the CCC are publicly available. It is hoped that the C-PLAN model will assist transparency in setting climate policies, help build capacity for climate policy analysis, and ultimately set the foundations for future climate policy initiatives in New Zealand and other countries.

A Multisectoral Dynamic Model for Energy, Economic, and Climate Scenario Analysis

The MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model has been widely used in energy, land use, technology, and climate policy studies. Here, we provide details of revisions that form the basis of EPPA7, the current version. Key updates include: 1) using the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-power) database as the core economic data for the world economy; 2) updating regional economic growth projections; 3) separating extant and vintage capital of the previously aggregated fossil generation; 4) using an innovative approach to calculate the costs of backstop (i.e., advanced) power generation options based on engineering data from the Energy Information Administration; 5) identifying base year biofuel output from existing sectors; and 6) re-parameterizing electric vehicles based on recent studies. Our simulations demonstrate that with widespread mitigation policies worldwide, regions relying heavily on fossil fuel imports benefit from lower global fossil fuel prices when their domestic emissions targets are lenient, but the benefits dissipate when deeper emissions cuts are imposed domestically. We also provide an illustration how the model output can be used to calculate the net present values of unrealized fossil fuel production and stranded assets from idling coal power generation under various policy scenarios.

THE CONCEPT OF COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS

This paper contributes to the existing literature on the general concept on use of the Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of importance in developing processes. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are used widely in policy analysis, especially in developed-country academic settings and also for the purpose of sharing these lessons with potential users in developing countries. The range of issues on which CGE models have had an influence is quite wide, and includes structural adjustment policies, international trade, public finance, agriculture, income distribution, and energy and environmental policy. This paper describes how to build multi sector computable general equilibrium models for policy analysis. The article presents the social accounting matrix (SAM) that provides the conceptual framework linking together different components of the model and furnishes much of the data as well.

The future of fish in Africa: Employment and investment opportunities.

One of the most pressing challenges facing food systems in Africa is ensuring availability of a healthy and sustainable diet to 2.4 billion people by 2050. The continent has struggled with development challenges, particularly chronic food insecurity and pervasive poverty. In Africa's food systems, fish and other aquatic foods play a multifaceted role in generating income, and providing a critical source of essential micronutrients. To date, there are no estimates of investment and potential returns for domestic fish production in Africa. To contribute to policy debates about the future of fish in Africa, we applied the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agriculture Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to explore two Pan-African scenarios for fish sector growth: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a high-growth scenario for capture fisheries and aquaculture with accompanying strong gross domestic product growth (HIGH). Post-model analysis was used to estimate employment and aquaculture investment requirements for the sector in Africa. Africa's fish sector is estimated to support 20.7 million jobs in 2030, and 21.6 million by 2050 under the BAU. Approximately 2.6 people will be employed indirectly along fisheries and aquaculture value chains for every person directly employed in the fish production stage. Under the HIGH scenario, total employment in Africa's fish food system will reach 58.0 million jobs, representing 2.4% of total projected population in Africa by 2050. Aquaculture production value is estimated to achieve US$ 3.3 billion and US$ 20.4 billion per year under the BAU and HIGH scenarios by 2050, respectively. Farm-gate investment costs for the three key inputs (fish feeds, farm labor, and fish seed) to achieve the aquaculture volumes projected by 2050 are estimated at US$ 1.8 billion per year under the BAU and US$ 11.6 billion per year under the HIGH scenario. Sustained investments are critical to sustain capture fisheries and support aquaculture growth for food system transformation towards healthier diets.

Applying a ‘Contexts of Influence’ policy analysis model in Nepal

This paper draws upon a wider study deploying a ‘Contexts of Influence’ policy analysis framework applied to a developing nation—Nepal. The specific focus of the investigation was a policy into practice analysis of civics and citizenship educational curriculum goals. Themes around teaching and learning related to national identity, democracy, cultural diversity and global education were explored at the macro, meso and micro policy levels. The paper identifies some gaps and tensions in policy making in Nepal within and between the contexts of influence, text production and practice. The findings of this paper indicate that the relationships between the various contexts of influence in Nepal are not quite as dynamic as in some other studies that have applied the policy cycle model. There is an asymmetry of power with the policymakers in charge. The paper reflects upon how both textbooks and teaching practice might benefit from a greater sense of agency and empowerment in order to stimulate more creative and multi-perspectival classroom practice.

Do foreign direct investments and bank credits affect employment in Uzbekistan?

PurposeThe paper investigates the relationship between credit to the economy, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the unemployment rate in Uzbekistan using macroeconomic time series over 2004–2019.Design/methodology/approachThe study estimates the relationship by applying a vector autoregression model, which is considered a “workhorse” model for policy analysis to capture dynamic relationships in economic time series.FindingsThe results suggest both growth in credit to the economy and FDI Granger cause a change in the unemployment rate. The authors found 1% increase in bank credits to the economy growth decreases the unemployment rate by 0.096 pp. over eight years. On the contrary, 1% positive shock to FDI growth increases the unemployment rate by 0.0036% in the context of Uzbekistan.Practical implicationsUzbekistan should improve FDI absorptive capacity, particularly human capital and financial market development, through growth-enhancing structural reforms in the financial sector to stimulate economic growth and employment. The attracted FDI funds should focus on productive and economic sectors with high labor-absorptive capacity, such as financial and professional services, healthcare and biomedicine, creative industries and media, software sector.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the empirical literature on employment effects of FDIs and credit to the economy of Uzbekistan.

A Study on the High School Free Education Policy Using a Multi-Dimensional Policy Analysis Model

목적 본 연구에서는 고교 무상교육 정책의 도입과 시행 전 과정을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 방법 정책이 공론화된 2012년부터 시행되고 있는 2021년까지의 고교 무상교육정책 관련 선거공약, 국회회의록, 정책연구 보고서, 학술지 및 선행연구, 뉴스 기사 및 여론 조사 등을 수집하였다. 동 정책을 종합적인 관점에서 검토하기 위해 수집된 자료를 다차원 정책분석 모형을 적용하여 각 차원별로 분석하였다. 결과 고교 무상교육 정책은 공평한 교육기회 제공, 교육의 공공성 강화를 추구하고 있으며, 정책의 시행을 위해 국회(법 제정), 교육부(시행방안 강구), 시⋅도 교육청(소요액의 47.5% 부담)이 상호작용하였다. 정책의 시행에 대해 교육수혜자와 정치인 및 정당은 긍정적인 반면에, 교원 및 교원단체는 부정적이었다. 정책의 시행 시기와 시행 학년을 두고 여⋅야 간의 갈등이 있었지만 시행에 대해서는 합의한 것으로 볼 수 있으며, 2025년 이후의 재원 확보 마련이 해결되어야 할 과제로 남아있다. 결론 고교 무상교육 정책의 지속성을 보장하기 위해 재원 확보 방안의 법제화가 이루어져야 하며, 교육 여건 및 질 보장을 위해 효율적인 예산 배분 및 지출이 이루어져야 한다. 또한, 시⋅도 교육청의 재정 부담을 경감할 수 있는 방안이 마련되어야 할 것이다.

ANALISIS ANGGARAN PENDAPATAN BELANJA NEGARA(APBN) TERHADAP PENDANAAN KEBIJAKAN PENDIDIKAN

The State Revenue and Expenditure Budget or APBN is the annual financial plan of the state government approved by the House of Representatives. The purpose of the preparation of the APBN is as a guideline for state expenditures and revenues so that there is a dynamic balance in carrying out state activities to achieve increased production, increased employment opportunities, high economic growth and ultimately aimed at achieving a just and prosperous material and spiritual society based on Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution. “Indonesia is still behind several Asian countries in terms of education, even though 20 percent of the state budget has been spent on education for the last ten years. This is still not satisfactory. It may even be a disappointment because Indonesian education graduates do not reach the desired level. Equitable access to education and inadequate facilities and infrastructure, especially in Eastern Indonesia and the Disadvantaged, Frontier, Outermost (3T) areas. This is one of the challenges that the government will fix. The results of this research are (1) the process of formulating education funding policies reflects the lack of political will commitment from the government and the DPR. (2) Implementation of the education funding policy of 20% of the APBN. (3) Results of the education funding policy analysis. This study aims to determine how to formulate education funding policies, their implementation and analyze them. The method used in this study is a policy analysis method with a retrospective policy analysis model and the type of policy process analysis.

Decarbonizing the Chilean Electric Power System: A Prospective Analysis of Alternative Carbon Emissions Policies

In this paper, we investigate potential pathways for achieving deep reductions in CO2 emissions by 2050 in the Chilean electric power system. We simulate the evolution of the power system using a long-term planning model for policy analysis that identifies investments and operation strategies to meet demand and CO2 emissions reductions at the lowest possible cost. The model considers a simplified representation of the main transmission network and representative days to simulate operations considering the variability of demand and renewable resources at different geographical locations. We perform a scenario analysis assuming different ambitious renewable energy and emission reduction targets by 2050. As observed in other studies, we show that the incremental cost of reducing CO2 emissions without carbon capture or offset alternatives increases significantly as the system approaches zero emissions. Indeed, the carbon tax is multiplied by a factor of 4 to eliminate the last Mt of CO2 emissions, i.e., from 2000 to almost 8500 USD/tCO2 in 2050. This result highlights the importance of implementing technology-neutral mechanisms that help investors identify the most cost-efficient actions to reduce CO2 emissions. Our analysis shows that Carbon Capture and Storage could permit to divide by more than two the total system cost of a 100% renewable scenario. Furthermore, it also illustrates the importance of implementing economy-wide carbon emissions policies that ensure that the incremental costs to reduce CO2 emissions are roughly similar across different sectors of the economy.

Hard-to-Abate Sectors: The role of industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS) in emission mitigation

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is an important option in the portfolio of emission mitigation solutions in scenarios that lead to deep reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We focus on CCS application in hard-to-abate sectors (cement industry, iron and steel, chemicals) and introduce industrial CCS options into the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a global multi-region multi-sector energy-economic model that provides a basis for the analysis of long-term energy deployment. We use the EPPA model to explore the potential for industrial CCS in different parts of the world, under the assumptions that CCS is the only mitigation option for deep GHG emission reductions in industry and that negative emission options are not available for other sectors of the economy. We evaluate CCS deployment in a scenario that limits the increase in average global surface temperature to 2 °C above preindustrial levels. When industrial CCS is not available, global costs of reaching the target are higher by 12% in 2075 and 71% in 2100 relative to the cost of achieving the policy with CCS. Overall, industrial CCS enables continued growth in the use of energy-intensive goods along with large reductions in global and sectoral emissions. We find that in scenarios with stringent climate policy, CCS in the industry sector is a key mitigation option, and our approach provides a path to projecting the deployment of industrial CCS across industries and regions.

A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco

The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. The model focuses on only a few variables that are consistent with the New Keynesian framework. Thanks to its simplicity, it facilitates an initial and intuitive understanding of monetary and fiscal policy transmission channels, and their main impact on economic activity. The model is adapted to Morocco and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of policy responses to a slower-than-expected recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes.

The cost of CO2 transport and storage in global integrated assessment modeling

This paper assesses the range of CO2 transport and storage costs and evaluates their impact on economy-wide modeling results of decarbonization pathways. Much analytic work has been dedicated to evaluating the cost and performance of various CO2 capture technologies, but less attention has been paid to evaluating the cost of CO2 transport and storage. Many integrated assessment modeling studies assume a combined cost for CO2 transport and storage that is uniform in all regions, commonly estimated at $10/tCO2. Realistically, the cost of CO2 transport and storage is not fixed at $10/tCO2 and varies across geographic, geologic, and institutional settings. We surveyed the literature to identify key sources of variability in transport and storage costs and developed a method to quantify and incorporate these elements into a cost range. We find that onshore pipeline transport and storage costs vary from $4 to 45/tCO2 depending on key sources of variability including transport distance, scale (i.e. quantity of CO2 transported and stored), monitoring assumptions, reservoir geology, and transport cost variability such as pipeline capital costs. Using the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, we examined the impact of variability in transport and storage costs by applying a range of uniform costs in all regions in a future where global temperature rise is limited to 2°C. We then developed three modeling cases where transport and storage costs vary regionally. In these latter cases, global cumulative CO2 captured and stored through 2100 ranges from 290 to 377 Gt CO2, compared to 425 Gt CO2 when costs are assumed to be uniformly $10/t CO2 in all regions. We conclude that the widely used assumption of $10/tCO2 for the transport and storage of CO2 is reasonable in some regions, but not in others. Moreover, CCS deployment is more sensitive to transport and storage costs in some regions than others, particularly China. More analysis is needed to further quantify CO2 transport and storage costs at a regional level.