Climate Change Models Research Articles

Thermal response of a sky island lizard to climate change

ABSTRACT Climate change models for lizards assume that changes in its climate envelope (the climatic conditions that define a species’ distribution at a given time) are due to species being unable to withstand temperature increases, but this assumption has not been tested to assess its robustness. Studies on lizards’ preferred temperature in thermal gradients can fill this gap. Our aim is to assess the response to climate change of Liolaemus nigroviridis, a sky island lizard, by (i) assessing its thermal preference in a thermal gradient; and (ii) estimating which localities inhabited by the species would exhibit hours of activity restriction (Hr) implying an increased risk of local extinction. The results of this research and the information obtained from the literature concur on the consequences that climate change will have on the thermal ecology of Liolaemus from specialized habitats; the increase in substrate temperature is indeed a factor determining its presence. We also have information that not all populations of L. nigroviridis will be influenced in the same way; the northern populations will be more affected in terms of thermal restrictions and, in addition, Hr will increase at higher elevations. We propose that this be considered for future management for this species.

Diurnal Variation in Surface Incident Solar Radiation Retrieved by CERES and Himawari-8

The diurnal variation of surface incident solar radiation (Rs) has a significant impact on the Earth’s climate. Satellite-retrieved Rs datasets display good spatial and temporal continuity compared with ground-based observations and, more importantly, have higher accuracy than reanalysis datasets. Facilitated by these advantages, many scholars have evaluated satellite-retrieved Rs, especially based on monthly and annual data. However, there is a lack of evaluation on an hourly scale, which has a profound impact on sea–air interactions, climate change, agriculture, and prognostic models. This study evaluates Himawari-8 and Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System Synoptic (CERES)-retrieved hourly Rs data covering 60°S–60°N and 80°E–160°W based on ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). Hourly Rs were first standardized to remove the diurnal and seasonal cycles. Furthermore, the sensitivities of satellite-retrieved Rs products to clouds, aerosols, and land cover types were explored. It was found that Himawari-8-retrieved Rs was better than CERES-retrieved Rs at 8:00–16:00 and worse at 7:00 and 17:00. Both satellites performed better at continental sites than at island/coastal sites. The diurnal variations of statistical parameters of Himawari-8 satellite-retrieved Rs were stronger than those of CERES. Relatively larger MABs in the case of stratus and stratocumulus were exhibited for both hourly products. Smaller MAB values were found for CERES covered by deep convection and cumulus clouds and for Himawari-8 covered by deep convection and nimbostratus clouds. Larger MAB values at evergreen broadleaf forest sites and smaller MAB values at open shrubland sites were found for both products. In addition, Rs retrieved by Himawari-8 was more sensitive to AOD at 10:00–16:00, while that retrieved by CERES was more sensitive to COD at 9:00–15:00. The CERES product showed larger sensitivity to COD (at 9:00–15:00) and AOD (at 7:00–10:00) than Himawari-8. This work helps data producers know how to improve their future products and helps data users be aware of the uncertainties that exist in hourly satellite-retrieved Rs data.

User-friendly carbon-cycle modelling and aspects of Phanerozoic climate change

Carbon-cycle modelling is essential for testing the main carbon sources and sinks as climate forcings, and we introduce and describe GEOCARB_NET, a graphical user interface for the geologic carbon and sulfur cycle model GEOCARBSULFvolc. The software system is menu-driven, user-friendly, and the user is never far removed from the basic input parameters from which atmospheric CO2 and O2 concentrations can be derived. GEOCARB_NET is supplied with several published models and the user can easily test and refine these models with different parametrizations. GEOCARB_NET also contains libraries of models and proxy data, which easily can be compared with each other. Our examples focus on how to use GEOCARB_NET in the context of Phanerozoic climate change and highlights how certain key input parameters can seriously affect reconstructed CO2 levels.

Warming, stochastic diel thermal fluctuations affect physiological performance and gill plasticity in an amphibious mangrove fish.

Natural temperature variation in many marine ecosystems is stochastic and unpredictable, and climate change models indicate that this thermal irregularity is likely to increase. Temperature acclimation may be more challenging when conditions are highly variable and stochastic, and there is a need for empirical physiological data in these thermal environments. Using the hermaphroditic, amphibious mangrove rivulus (Kryptolebias marmoratus), we hypothesized that compared with regular, warming diel thermal fluctuations, stochastic warm fluctuations would negatively affect physiological performance. To test this, we acclimated fish to: (1) non-stochastic and (2) stochastic thermal fluctuations with a similar thermal load (27-35°C), and (3) a stable/consistent control temperature at the low end of the cycle (27°C). We determined that fecundity was reduced in both cycles, with reproduction ceasing in stochastic thermal environments. Fish acclimated to non-stochastic thermal cycles had growth rates lower than those of control fish. Exposure to warm, fluctuating cycles did not affect emersion temperature, and only regular diel cycles modestly increased critical thermal tolerance. We predicted that warm diel cycling temperatures would increase gill surface area. Notably, fish acclimated to either thermal cycle had a reduced gill surface area and increased intralamellar cell mass when compared with control fish. This decreased gill surface area with warming contrasts with what is observed for exclusively aquatic fish and suggests a preparatory gill response for emersion in these amphibious fish. Collectively, our data reveal the importance of considering stochastic thermal variability when studying the effects of temperature on fishes.

Extreme weather has variable effects on reproductive success of grassland songbirds at the northern extent of their range

Abstract Grassland songbirds breeding in Canada and the United States have experienced significant population declines likely because of habitat loss and degradation. Many climate change models predict an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme precipitation and temperature events that could place further pressures on declining species. We monitored the fate of 1,868 individual nesting attempts of 7 grassland songbird species in response to various precipitation and temperature measures over a 10-yr period (1997 to 2002 and 2004 to 2008) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Daily nest survival rates of 5 species, including 3 at-risk species, were negatively influenced by high levels of precipitation, although the amount of precipitation where declines in daily nest survival occurred varied. Daily nest survival rates of 2 species were negatively correlated with high temperatures. We failed to detect any relationship between precipitation or temperature and the number of fledglings produced from successful nests. Extreme weather events could add additional stressors to declining populations of grassland birds in Canada. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather, specifically extreme precipitation events and short-term high temperatures, will likely lead to lower reproductive success for several species compared to current levels. This may be especially problematic for management of Anthus spragueii (Sprague’s Pipit) and Centronyx bairdii (Baird’s Sparrow), where a large proportion (> 75%) of the breeding population occurs near the northern edge of the Great Plains. The continuing loss and degradation of northern grasslands may limit the ability of these species to disperse and find favorable climate conditions.

Developing an airport resilience assessment model for climate change

Climate change is affecting the stability of all types of transportation systems, including air transport. Ensuring the disaster preparedness capability of an airport has become a crucial issue. Prior studies on assessing airport resilience and risk analysis have failed to consider the impact of the disaster at various stages and the interdependence between the factors or criteria. This study proposes airport resilience model that considers the various stages of disaster response. First, we collect criteria affecting airport resilience through literature review and experts' survey to develop a novel evaluation framework. Second, this study applies the modified DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) which was modified by introducing the concept of heterogeneous impact analysis and combined with the concept of centrality weighting. Then, the modified DEMATEL is further combined with the Dombi Weighted Aggregator method to explore the interdependence relationships among the criteria and effectively integrate expert opinions. Finally, modified VIKOR (VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje) analysis is applied to assess the resilience performance of Taiwan's major international airports and provide suggestions for improvement. The results indicate that pre-disaster preparation, with a weight of 0.338 among four stages, is the most crucial stage for enhancing airport resilience. This can be achieved through the implementation of effective emergency response procedures and evacuation plans in the event of a disaster. Additionally, this study suggests various improvement strategies based on the assessment results to enhance disaster resistance and resilience.

A Systematic Review on Drivers of Water-Use Behaviour among Agricultural Water Users

Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6) is closely linked to the sustainable management of water resources and sanitation worldwide. SDG 6.4, in particular, aims to significantly improve water-use efficiency across all sectors by 2030. It is important to acknowledge the significant role that behavioural aspects of water users in an agricultural context play in contributing to water-use efficiency. This systematic review aims to provide an up-to-date synthesis of the current knowledge of water-use behaviours in agriculture to stay on track in achieving SDG 6. This systematic literature review investigates the factors influencing water-use behaviour among agricultural water users globally. Using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) method, we retrieved a total of 867 records, of which 47 matched the eligibility criteria. The 47 relevant studies were primarily conducted in the United States and China with key themes including sustainable agricultural practices, technology adoption for productivity, climate change adaptation, and modelling and uncertainty in water conservation. Additionally, the review identified six distinct water-use behaviours investigated from 2020 to 2024, which were each driven by its unique set of factors. Overall, the findings from the systematic review indicate that there has been a geographical gap in research efforts over the past five years, and it is important for water-use behaviour-related research to be extended to other countries that are water-stressed. Furthermore, the researchers recommend that future studies should develop comprehensive behavioural models and adopt holistic approaches to better understand and promote sustainable water-use behaviours in agriculture. These efforts are vital for achieving sustainable water management and broader SDGs.

Climate change in edaphic systems – Impact of salinity intrusions in terrestrial invertebrates

Amongst climate change’s impacts a major concern is salinization of soils, for example due to saltwater intrusion. The aim of the present study was to investigate in a standard field soil the impacts of soil salinity increase. The purpose was to study this in two soil invertebrates that are key model ecotoxicology test-species, Enchytraeus crypticus and Folsomia candida as surrogate representatives of the soil ecosystem. The exposure followed the standard ecotoxicity OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) test guidelines, and the assessed endpoints were survival, reproduction and size. Exposure done in LUFA 2.2 soil, spiked with 0,0.6,1,2,3,4,5,6,8 g NaCl/kg soil dry weight (DW) for E. crypticus (21 days) and 0,0.06,0.6,1,2,3,4,5,6 g NaCl/kg soil DW for F. candida (28 days). There was a similar impact for both species in terms of survival (LC50=4.2 g NaCl/kg soil DW), whereas at the reproductive output level of F. candida (EC50=2.1 g NaCl/kg soil DW) was more sensitive than E. crypticus (EC50=2.4 g NaCl/kg soil DW). Further, size was impacted for F. candida in a monotonic dose-response curve for both adults (EC50=3.5 g NaCl/kg soil DW) and juveniles (EC50=2 g NaCl/kg soil DW), whereas for E. crypticus there was an increase in reproductive output at lower concentrations (0.6–1 g NaCl/kg soil DW). This increased reproduction was associated with a larger size of adults within the same concentration range. Considering the prediction from the climate models, the soil invertebrate community will be affected. As upper soils are likely to have the highest salinity increase due to evaporation, soil surface species, such as the collembolan tested here, are at higher risk. Negative population effects were occurring within salinity levels predicted by climate change models.

A mixture of grass-legume cover crop species may ameliorate water stress in a changing climate.

Climate change models predict increasing precipitation variability in the mid-latitude regions of Earth, generating a need to reduce the negative impacts of these changes on crop production. Despite considerable research on how cover crops support agriculture in a changing climate, understanding is limited of how climate change influences the growth of cover crops. We investigated the early development of two common cover crop species-crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum) and rye (Secale cereale)-and hypothesized that growing them in the mixture would ameliorate stress from drought or waterlogging. This hypothesis was tested in a 25-day greenhouse experiment, where the two factors (species number and water stress) were fully crossed in randomized blocks, and plant responses were quantified through survival, growth rate, biomass production and root morphology. Water stress negatively influenced the early growth of these two species in contrasting ways: crimson clover was susceptible to drought while rye performed poorly under waterlogging. Per-plant biomass in rye was always greater in mixture than in monoculture, while per-plant biomass of crimson clover was greater in mixture under drought. Both species grew longer roots in mixture than in monoculture under drought, and total biomass of mixtures did not differ significantly from the more-productive monoculture (rye) in any water condition. In the face of increasingly variable precipitation, growing crimson clover and rye together has potential to ameliorate water stress, a possibility that should be further investigated in field experiments.

Assessment of rural livelihoods, health and wellbeing in Vhembe District Municipality, South Africa and Narok County, Kenya: A water-energy-food nexus perspective

The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus has become an integral component duly suited to enable sustainable development and an important tool to achieve and sustain various socioeconomic and environmental outcomes, including the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals. The WEF nexus has become increasingly important in recent years as it can holistically address humankind's current triple challenges, including resource depletion, environmental degradation, and population growth. Socioeconomic factors such as increased population, economic development, and climate change patterns frequently induce unprecedented pressure on WEF resources. From the various climate change model simulations, the climate is likely to increase in the future, exacerbating the demand of the population to access the WEF resources and services. For effective resource planning and decision-making, the availability of WEF resources must be assessed under ongoing climate change. In this regard, this study assessed rural livelihoods, health, and wellbeing indicators within the WEF nexus framework in Vhembe District Municipality (VDM), South Africa, and Narok County, Kenya. The premise was to determine the drivers of livelihood changes by applying the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making to understand the causal linkages between the WEF nexus resources and the sustainable livelihood indicators. Data collected from the literature review, questionnaire/group discussions, and field visit engagements were used to formulate and develop a matrix of indicators to assess livelihoods, health, and wellbeing. A correlation analysis based on the AHP was used to determine the linkages between WEF resources and sustainable livelihood indicators. The multivariate analysis used the correlation matrix to capture the pairwise degrees of relationship between WEF resources and sustainable livelihood indicators in the two study areas. The results show that the resources for sustainable livelihoods in VDM are more sustainable than those in Narok County. The Consistency Ratio values for Narok County and VDM were 0.046 and 0.067, respectively. The resulting composite index (0.143) classified both study sites under the lowly sustainable category. The results are important for informing policy formulation that guides timely interventions to balance socio-ecological systems.

Potential for mitigating hurricane wind impact on informally-constructed homes in Puerto Rico under current and future climate scenarios

This study investigates the resilience of informally-constructed light-frame timber houses in Puerto Rico, a region where households with limited resources face significant risks from climate hazards, notably hurricanes. This study conducts a component-based, performance-based wind engineering assessment of informally-constructed house typologies, defined based on extensive fieldwork, under both existing and projected future climate conditions. Key findings highlight the effectiveness of certain mitigation strategies, such as reinforcing roof-to-wall connections, in significantly reducing the probability of failure. Fully-mitigated cases, which involve applying mitigation measures to the roof envelope, roof-to-wall connections, and shear walls, exhibited annual probabilities of failure that are much closer to, but do not necessarily meet, the threshold targeted by American building standards (i.e., ASCE 7). The results also show a dramatic increase in probability of failure of these houses projected by the adopted climate change model scenarios, driven by the increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes in Puerto Rico. Results from feedback from those working in the informal construction sector also identify challenges hindering the effective implementation of mitigation measures in Puerto Rican communities, including a lack of knowledge about how to implement the mitigation strategies and barriers related to real and perceived costs. Taken together these results underscore the urgent need for changes in building practices and revising building standards and suggesting potentially feasible mitigation strategies to improve those practices.

Evolution history and the importance of genomic diversity facing climate change. The case of Agave marmorata Roezl., a microendemic agave used for mezcal production

Social Impact StatementFor hundreds of years, Agave marmorata plants have been used in the production of alcoholic beverages in Mexico. This species is very important in small‐scale rural economies because it is a large plant, yielding five liters of mezcal. However, the production of these beverages takes place when it reaches its reproductive stage, which takes up to 35 years. Due to its slow maturation and high demand, it is considered an endangered species. Therefore, as a conservation strategy, this study proposes the creation of nurseries, genetic breeding programs, and demographic monitoring of wild populations to counteract the extraction of wild plants and, the conservation of the genetic diversity.Summary Agave marmorata Roezl., is an endemic species distributed in the states of Oaxaca and Puebla, Mexico, and locally is widely used to produce mezcal. We assessed the genomic diversity and differentiation using the RADseq method and 29,101 high‐quality single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in wild plants and grown under three different management types (cultivated, plants used as live fences, and young plants growing in nurseries). We examined the demographic history and used species distribution modeling to understand the future of A. marmorata under scenarios of climate change. We found high levels of genomic diversity (HS = 0.229) and moderate levels of inbreeding (FIS = 0.106 and Fhat3 = 0.190). The cultivated samples harbored less genetic diversity than the wild plants. Furthermore, we estimated low differentiation between cultivated and wild localities (FST = 0.037). In the wild samples, we identified two main genetic groups, one in the East and another in the West of its distribution area. This genetic structure possibly derived from a population contraction during the Pleistocene (~216,879.75 BP) and the formation of two refugia in small areas with climatic stability. Furthermore, the demographic reconstruction indicated that A. marmorata went through a recent population expansion event, with a large current Ne (Ne = 8,009). The future climate change models indicated contrasting possible changes in its distribution range, from an increase to the reduction of its suitable habitat, differences related to model parametrization, and future levels of CO2 production. We propose conservation measures for the different management types of the species while also considering the biotic and abiotic interactions of Agave marmorata.

Prediction of present and future distribution areas of Juniperus drupacea Labill and determination of ethnobotany properties in Antalya Province, Türkiye.

Ethnobotanical studies revealed the experience and knowledge of people who learned the therapeutic virtues of plants through trials and errors and transferred their knowledge to the next generations. This study determined the ethnobotanical use of Juniperus drupacea (Andiz) in the Antalya province and the current and future potential distribution areas of J. drupacea in Türkiye during 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 according to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios and based on the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate change model. The very suitable areas encompassed 22379.7 km2. However, when the SSP2-4.5 scenario was considered, the areas most suitable for J. drupacea comprised 6215.892 km2 for 2041-2060 and 378.318 km2 for 2081-2100. Based on the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the area most suitable for J. drupacea was 979.082 km2 for 2041-2060. However, no suitable areas were identified with the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2081-2100. Considering the models for the future estimated distribution areas of J. drupacea, serious contractions endangering the species are predicted in its distribution areas. Therefore, scientific research should focus on identifying J. drupacea populations and genotypes that demonstrate resilience to future drought conditions resulting from climate change. This endeavor is crucial as it holds significant ecological and economic values.

Himalayan Buddhism as Human Geological Agency: Rethinking the Novelty of "the Anthropocene"

This article uses a Himalayan Buddhist lens to critically interrogate a fundamental premise of "the Anthropocene"---that the epoch commemorates a "newfound" capacity of humans to mobilise Earth forces. Rather, Himalayan Buddhism has long held that humans wield geological agency, mobilised through relationships with territorial landscape deities, which inflict severe weather in retaliation for human moral infractions. Offering an alternative model of anthropogenic climate change, Buddhist and Indigenous lifeworlds challenge Western convictions that "the Anthropocene" is a novel planetary epoch. Since the term has gained a vibrant discursive life beyond geology, its cultural assumptions---rather than biophysical thresholds---are primarily evaluated, revealing an extension of Eurocentric colonial logic into this new planetary chapter. Alternatively, I suggest the Himalayan Buddhist term "kawa nyampa" (degenerate era) better encapsulates our transition towards environmental breakdown. There was no need to "invent" the Anthropocene as a new epoch of thought---it had long already existed.

Population ecology and habitat suitability modelling of an endangered and endemic medicinal plant Meconopsis aculeata Royle under projected climate change in the Himalaya

The Himalayan region is home to the endangered and endemic medicinal plant, Meconopsis aculeata. Habitat degradation due to overexploitation and unscientific collection of the species in recent years has caused the restricted distribution range of species across its range. Therefore, the present study was conducted in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region (4.5 million km2 area) to study population ecology and identify suitable habitats for the habitat distribution modelling under projected climate change to monitor and restore the dwindling populations. Ten sites/populations (20 × 20 m plot) of M. aculeata have been studied. East aspect (5 sites) and rocky habitat (04 sites) represented the maximum number of sites. The density of M. aculeata has a significant negative correlation with slope and available potassium in soil. The MaxEnt algorithm, species occurrence data and environmental variables were used in the current study. CMIP6 project's MIROC6 and BCC-CSM2-MR climate change models were used to identify the potential distribution area for the future under the SSP245 and SSP370 scenarios for the period 2081–2100. The results showed the satisfactory quality of models based on the True-Skill-Statistic (0.838 ±0.149), Area-Under-Curve values (0.958±0.038), and the Receiver-Operating-Characteristic curves. MaxEnt predicted that 1,78,993 km2 (4.10 %) area is favourable for the occurrence of the species. The precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the coldest quarter and elevation were the most influential variables for habitat suitability prediction. The distribution area with an increase in greenhouse gases shows a decrease in the period 2081–2100 in both SSPs and GCMs. The study predicted highly suitable areas that would play a vital role in in situ conservation and improving the status of species. The predicted distribution maps of the species would help policymakers and decision-makers in developing suitable management plans, which will ultimately help in the conservation of species.

Impacts of land use/land cover and climate change on landscape sensitivity in Tunca River sub-basin: Use in spatial planning and sectoral decision processes

Managing landscape change is increasingly challenging due to rapid anthropogenic shifts. A delicate balance must be struck between the environment and change to ensure landscapes can withstand these impacts. This study conducted in the Tunca River sub-basin of Edirne province, aims to assess landscape sensitivity by examining the influence of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on landscape function processes. For this purpose, a methodology was developed based on ecosystem services to determine landscape sensitivity. The results revealed a LULC transformation that could lead to a 60% reduction in forest areas and a 5% and 20% increase in urban and irrigated agricultural areas, respectively. Water and erosion emerged as the most affected landscape function processes. Future scenarios from 2050 to 2070 indicate noteworthy changes in landscape sensitivity, showing an increase in sensitivity in the upper regions of the basin. The study identified high sensitivity in forested areas, moderate sensitivity in agricultural zones, and low sensitivity in micro-basins near residential areas. Protection and improvement strategies are recommended for areas with high and moderate sensitivity, while use-oriented strategies are suggested for those with low sensitivity. This study also establishes a scientific foundation for guiding the protection and management of ecologically sensitive basin areas, offering insights into the effects of landscape change processes at the micro-basin level in connection with climate change models.

Intrinsic microbial temperature sensitivity and soil organic carbon decomposition in response to climate change.

Soil microbes are essential for regulating carbon stocks under climate change. However, the uncertainty surrounding how microbial temperature responses control carbon losses under warming conditions highlights a significant gap in our climate change models. To address this issue, we conducted a fine-scale analysis of soil organic carbon composition under different temperature gradients and characterized the corresponding microbial growth and physiology across various paddy soils spanning 4000 km in China. Our results showed that warming altered the composition of organic matter, resulting in a reduction in carbohydrates of approximately 0.026% to 0.030% from humid subtropical regions to humid continental regions. These changes were attributed to a decrease in the proportion of cold-preferring bacteria, leading to significant soil carbon losses. Our findings suggest that intrinsic microbial temperature sensitivity plays a crucial role in determining the rate of soil organic carbon decomposition, providing insights into the temperature limitations faced by microbial activities and their impact on soil carbon-climate feedback.

Determining threshold air temperature of snowfall and rainfall in China mainland

AbstractSeparating existing historical precipitation data into solid and liquid precipitation remains a challenge in the study of climate change, extreme precipitation, and hydrological modelling. Based on historical daily air temperature and precipitation data, as well as visual observations of precipitation phase (weather phenomena records) in China mainland, this study proposed a snow‐day direct definition method (SDDM) to determine the threshold air temperature (TAT) of rainfall and snowfall, and analysed the spatial pattern and its influential factors. The main findings include: (1) the TAT based on the SDDM varied from −1.2 to 6.3°C, with a mean value of 2.8°C for the entire study region; (2) TAT was generally higher and more variable in the low‐latitude areas, and the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau was characterized by an abnormally high average TAT of 5.2°C, almost twice as large as that of the eastern monsoon region; (3) TAT exhibited a significant positive correlation with altitude and negative correlation with precipitation and relative humidity. The results presented in this paper have potential application for studies of large‐scale snowfall climatology and climate change, weather forecasting techniques, and hydrological model parameterization in areas with complex and diverse geographical and climatic conditions.

Local adaptation of Pinus leiophylla under climate and land use change models in the Avocado Belt of Michoacán.

Climate change and land use change are two main drivers of global biodiversity decline, decreasing the genetic diversity that populations harbour and altering patterns of local adaptation. Landscape genomics allows measuring the effect of these anthropogenic disturbances on the adaptation of populations. However, both factors have rarely been considered simultaneously. Based on a set of 3660 SNPs from which 130 were identified as outliers by a genome-environment association analysis (LFMM), we modelled the spatial turnover of allele frequencies in 19 localities of Pinus leiophylla across the Avocado Belt in Michoacán state, Mexico. Then, we evaluated the effect of climate change and land use change scenarios, in addition to evaluating assisted gene flow strategies and connectivity metrics across the landscape to identify priority conservation areas for the species. We found that localities in the centre-east of the Avocado Belt would be more vulnerable to climate change, while localities in the western area are more threatened by land conversion to avocado orchards. Assisted gene flow actions could aid in mitigating both threats. Connectivity patterns among forest patches will also be modified by future habitat loss, with central and eastern parts of the Avocado Belt maintaining the highest connectivity. These results suggest that areas with the highest priority for conservation are in the eastern part of the Avocado Belt, including the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve. This work is useful as a framework that incorporates distinct layers of information to provide a more robust representation of the response of tree populations to anthropogenic disturbances.

Towards Multiple Sources for Energy Harvesting in Wireless Sensor Networks in Practical Applications

For wireless sensor networks (WSNs) to continue operating, energy harvesting plays a critical role. This paper explores this topic. WSNs are essential to many applications, from industrial processes to home automation. The difficulty is in giving sensors enough power, particularly in isolated or difficult-to-reach places. A solution is found in energy harvesting, which uses vibration, heat, radio frequency, heat, and solar energy to power sensors. The wide range of uses for energy harvesting in climate change modeling, noise pollution mitigation, and environmental monitoring are examined in this paper. The emphasis now turns to real-world applications of various energy sources to improve WSN performance, with a particular emphasis on the switch from primary to rechargeable batteries. The study emphasizes how battery-free devices can lower maintenance costs and increase application possibilities. The field of energy harvesting, which includes thermal, radiofrequency, vibration, and solar energy, provides access to sustainable and priced WSNs. By elucidating the benefits of battery-free devices, this study underscores the potential to enhance WSN sustainability while simultaneously lowering operational costs. It underscores the transformative impact of energy harvesting, offering a pathway to sustainable and economically viable WSN deployments.