Mixing Of Natural Gases Research Articles

Artificial Intelligence based Leak Detection in Blended Hydrogen and Natural Gas Pipelines

In the transition towards a hydrogen-based energy system, the strategic use of pipelines is crucial for efficient hydrogen distribution. Leveraging existing natural gas pipelines to carry a mix of hydrogen and natural gas offers a cost-effective alternative to building new infrastructure. This study explores the development of a leak detection system compatible with existing pipelines, specifically tailored for the blended hydrogen and natural gas mix. Given the scarcity of leak data for blended hydrogen-natural gas pipelines, the study introduces a Real-Time Transient Model (RTTM) for blended gases, simulating leak dynamics to generate necessary data. Additionally, a leak detection system (LDS) is developed using a fusion of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) through Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS). This LDS framework overcomes the “black box” issue common in AI-driven systems, enabling reliable detection. The integration of Explainable and traditional AI techniques holds promising implications for blended hydrogen pipelines by enhancing the safety and efficiency of hydrogen transportation, thereby mitigating economic and environmental impacts, and addressing public concerns.

Numerical modeling and parameter optimization of the combustion chamber in a tower-type zinc refining furnace

With the implementation of “coal-to-gas” projects, the tower-type zinc refining furnace (TZRF) has encountered a mismatch between high-calorific value fuel and the primary combustion system. To address this issue, this study conducted a full-scale modeling of the combustion and heat transfer processes in the TZRF combustion chamber using computational fluid dynamics. An in-depth analysis and condition diagnosis of the TZRF were performed, elucidating the key causes of deteriorating furnace conditions, reduced efficiency, and decreased production capacity following fuel replacement. This study shows that the flow ratios of gas outlets are unevenly distributed, leading to poor mixing of natural gas and air, resulting in an uneven temperature field in the TZRF. A low-temperature zone is clearly observed below the second-layer burner, where significant accumulation of natural gas fails to combust completely. Although tilting the first-layer burner upward slightly enhances the overall heat transfer performance of the tray, it detrimentally affects the overall combustion of natural gas in the TZRF. The deployment of third-layer air outlets substantially eliminates low-temperature zones, expands the range of high-temperature zones, and significantly improves the furnace condition. The optimal flow ratio of the third-layer air outlets is 29.57%.

Effects of combustion and emission performance of ammonia/natural gas engines ignited by diesel

Ammonia fuel engines face problems such as low combustion efficiency, ammonia escape, and high N2O emissions. However, natural gas reserves are abundant, and the combustion speed is fast. In order to explore whether the mixing of natural gas can promote the combustion of ammonia fuel, this article discusses the combustion and emission performance of ammonia/natural gas hybrid fuel engines through simulation research. The results indicate that mixing ammonia fuel with natural gas can greatly improve the combustion efficiency of ammonia in the cylinder. Appropriate natural gas can greatly improve the power and economic efficiency of engines. Although the N2O emissions of the engine have significantly decreased, the CO2 and NOx emissions of the engine have significantly increased, and the engine's overall emission performance has become worse. Considering the engine's overall performance, this article selects A50/N50 as the optimal mixture ratio for ammonia/natural gas. The article's research results have effectively improved the problems existing in ammonia engines, providing research direction and data support for the development of ammonia fuels.

Effect of ring groove in a heat-insulating insert on efficiency of its work in blast channel of blast furnace tuyere

One of the main disadvantages when supplying natural gas to the air tuyere of a blast furnace is low intensity of its combustion inside the tuyere blast channel. Ring groove on the surface of blast channel improves the mixing of natural gas with blast and increases completeness of gas combustion in it, but reduces the tuyere durability. One of the ways to simultaneously solve these problems is to install a heat-insulating ceramic insert in the tuyere blast channel. The insert significantly reduces heat losses through the tuyere surface, improves natural gas combustion in the blast channel due to its contact with hot walls of the insert instead of cold copper walls in its absence. This increases the temperature of the hot blast at the tuyere outlet. In addition, the insert affects the tuyere durability by reducing the heat flow acting on the tuyere. In this work, we studied influence of the ring groove and its parts in the insert on efficiency of its work. In the Ansys 21.1 software, the processes occurring in the blast channel of a blast furnace tuyere with a ceramic insert installed in it, having a groove of a quadrangular section in the form of a ring or its part in the circumferential direction, were simulated. It was established that improvement of natural gas combustion in the tuyere blast channel is achieved using a ring groove or part of it from the side of gas supply.

Hydrogen–Natural Gas Mix—A Viable Perspective for Environment and Society

The increase in demand, and thus the need to lower its price, has kept C-based fuels as the main source. In this context, the use of oil and gas has led to increased climate change, resulting in greenhouse gases. The high percentage of eissions, over 40%, is due to the production of electricity, heat, or/and energy transport. This is the main reason for global warming and the extreme and increasingly common climate change occurrences, with all of nature being affected. Due to this reason, in more and more countries, there is an increased interest in renewable energies from sustainable sources, with a particular emphasis on decarbonisation. One of the energies analysed for decarbonisation that will play a role in future energy systems is hydrogen. The development of hydrogen–natural gas mixtures is a major challenge in the field of energy and fuel technology. This article aims to highlight the major challenges associated with researching hydrogen–natural gas blends. Meeting this challenge requires a comprehensive research and development effort, including exploring appropriate blending techniques, optimising performance, addressing infrastructure requirements, and considering regulatory considerations. Overcoming this challenge will enable the full potential of hydrogen–natural gas blends to be realised as a clean and sustainable energy source. This will contribute to the global transition to a greener and more sustainable future. Several international, European, and Romanian studies, projects, and legislative problems are being analysed. The mix between H2 and natural gas decreases fugitive emissions. In contrast, using hydrogen increases the risk of fire more than using natural gas because hydrogen is a light gas that easily escapes and ignites at almost any concentration in the air.

Massive enhancement in sensitivity of mixed potential sensors towards methane and natural gas through magnesia stabilized zirconia low ionic conductivity substrate

Monitoring of methane leaks from natural gas (NG) sources during production and transport is vital to combating the threat of greenhouse gases to the global climate. An additive manufacturing route was developed for the printing of a CTE matched, low reactivity and low ionic conductivity magnesia stabilized zirconia (MSZ) substrate for production of a four-electrode (indium tin oxide, lanthanum strontium chromite, and Au sensing electrodes measured against a Pt negative electrode) same-side planar mixed potential electrochemical sensor (MPES) with porous 3 mol% YSZ as electrolyte. The MSZ substrate based MPES achieves a 40 ppm limit of detection for methane in a simulated natural gas mix. Additionally, a 20 times enhanced response in the ITO vs. Pt signal over sensors using yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) substrates at 100 ppm CH4 in simulated natural gas is observed. This research illustrates the importance of a CTE matched, low reactivity, low conductivity substrate for optimal performance of same-side planar MPES devices for NG leak detection while allowing for application of high temperature co-fired ceramic technologies.

Insights into gas mixing: evidence from hydrocarbon geochemical characteristics

The study of mixed natural gas can clarify the specific sources of natural gas accumulation and provide the basis for the exploitation of natural gas resources. Analysis of gas compositions and carbon isotopic ratios of different components of mixed natural gas shows that the carbon isotopic fractionation of methane and ethane from different sources has a small difference after mixing. This conclusion is derived from the experimental data in Table 1, 0.88 is the average of all Ro values. Well DN8 and DN9 produced light oil with a density between 0.75 and 0.82 g/cm3 and viscosity between 1.63 and 3.3 MPa. Generally, in the high maturity stage of organic matter, the carbon isotopic fractionation values of methane and ethane of natural gas from a single source should display a difference of at least 4.0% to 5.0%. The δ13C value of methane and ethane in well DN8 are only 1.6%. It is considered that the mixing of natural gas from different sources causes this phenomenon.

A Comparison of the Geochemical Characteristics of Ultra-Deep Natural Gas in the Kuqa Foreland and Marine Craton Areas in the Tarim Basin, China

This research analyzed the composition and hydrocarbon isotope geochemical characteristics of ultra-deep natural gas (buried deeper than 6000 m) in more than 130 wells in the Tarim Basin. Characteristics of the ultra-deep natural gas components in the Tarim Basin are as follows: natural gas in the Kuqa sandstone reservoir is developed as dry gas, with a high methane content (an average of 95.53%) and a low ethane content (an average of only 1.39%). The ultra-deep gas of the marine craton carbonate reservoirs in the North Tarim-Central Tarim-East Tarim area is developed as wet gas. It is mainly composed of methane ranging from 56.1% to 98.8%, with an average content of 76.36% and also contains a small amount of ethane amounting to 6.74%. CO2 and H2S contents of ultra-deep condensate gas in the Central Tarim area are high, with maximum values of 24.2% and 23.1%, respectively. Isotopic characteristics are as follows: δ13C1 values of Kuqa natural gas are distributed between −36‰ and −25.3‰, with an average of −28.2‰, δ13C2 values are distributed between −26.2‰ and −13.8‰, with an average of −18.3‰. Most gas samples in Kuqa area are developed with the reversal of carbon isotopic series as δ13C2 > δ13C3, and the δ13CCO2 values are distributed between −19.5‰ and −10.3‰. The δ13C1 values of ultra-deep gas in marine craton carbonate rocks are distributed between −54.4‰ and −33.3‰, with an average of −42.6‰. δ13C2 values are distributed between −41.1‰ and −29.4‰, with an average of −33.8‰, and δ13CCO2 values are distributed between −28.2‰–0.6‰. According to the identification chart, it can be seen that the ultra-deep gas in the sandstone reservoir of the Kuqa foreland is mainly coal-derived gas in the high over-mature stage, and the reversal of carbon isotopic series may be caused by the mixing of natural gas of the same type and different sources. The natural gas in carbonate reservoirs of marine craton is mainly oil-type gas with complex sources, including both kerogen cracking gas and oil cracking gas. CO2 can be formed by organic and inorganic genesis. Inorganic CO2 is most likely to be generated by the dissolution of carbonate rocks under acid formation water.

Modeling Conjugate Heat Transfer in an Anode Baking Furnace Using OpenFoam

The operation of large industrial furnaces will continue to rely on hydrocarbon fuels in the near foreseeable future. Mathematical modeling and numerical simulation is expected to deliver key insights to implement measures to further reduce pollutant emissions. These measures include the design optimization of the burners, the dilution of oxidizer with exhaust gasses, and the mixing of natural gas with hydrogen. In this paper, we target the numerical simulation of non-premixed turbulent combustion of natural gas in a single heating section of a ring pit anode baking furnace. In previous work, we performed combustion simulations using a commercial flow simulator combined with an open-source package for the three-dimensional mesh generation. This motivates switching to a fully open-source software stack. In this paper, we develop a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes model for the turbulent flow combined with an infinitely fast mixed-is-burnt model for the non-premixed combustion and a participating media model for the radiative heat transfer in OpenFoam. The heat transfer to the refractory brick lining is taken into account by a conjugate heat transfer model. Numerical simulations provide valuable insight into the heat release and chemical species distribution in the staged combustion process using two burners. Results show that at the operating conditions implemented, higher peak temperatures are formed at the burner closest to the air inlet. This results in a larger thermal nitric-oxide concentration. The inclusion of the heat absorption in the refractory bricks results in a more uniform temperature on the symmetry plane at the center of the section. The peak in thermal nitric-oxides is reduced by a factor of four compared to the model with adiabatic walls.

Investigation of the influence of design parameters on thermal processes in a blast furnace tuyere using ANSYS software

It is known that the maximum heat losses in a water­cooled tuyere of a blast furnace are in the blowing channel. An effective way to reduce them is to install a heat­insulating ceramic insert. Such inserts installed in the inner cup of air tuyeres for the blast furnace no. 5 of PJSC “Severstal” reduce heat losses through the tuyere by 30 %, and inserts, which, in addition, insulate most of the inner surface of the snout part, further reduce heat losses through the tuyere by 26.2 %. The ANSYS software was used to study the effect of design parameters on thermal processes in a blast furnace tuyere with heat­insulating insert. To make the simulation more realistic the entire air tuyere, including water­cooling circuit, was considered as the modeling object. Protrusion of the insert into the blowing channel by 2 mm improves the mixing of natural gas and blast, promotes gas combustion, which leads to an increase in heat losses through the blowing channel and a decrease in resistance of the insert. To increase durability of the insert and reduce heat losses through the blowing channel, it is justified to use an elongated insert with a thickness varying from 13 to 8 mm in the blowing direction, which does not protrude into the blowing channel, having an angle between the normal to the side of the inner cup and the axis of the hole for natural gas supplying about 30°. It is shown that to obtain the maximum heat content of the blast, which is influenced by the combustion of natural gas and heat losses with cooling water in the blowing channel, it is preferable to have an elongated insert of variable thickness, varying from 10 to 8 mm in the blowing direction, and axis of the hole for natural gas supply perpendicular to the wall of the inner cup.

On the climate benefit of a coal-to-gas shift in Germany\u2019s electric power sector

Methane emissions along the natural gas supply chain are critical for the climate benefit achievable by fuel switching from coal to natural gas in the electric power sector. For Germany, one of the world’s largest primary energy consumers, with a coal and natural gas share in the power sector of 35% and 13%, respectively, we conducted fleet-conversion modelling for reference year 2018, taking domestic and export country specific greenhouse gas (GHG)-emissions in the natural gas and coal supply chains into account. Methane leakage rates below 4.9% (GWP20; immediate 4.1%) in the natural gas supply chain lead to overall reduction of CO2-equivalent GHG-emissions by fuel switching. Supply chain methane emissions vary significantly for the import countries Russia, Norway and The Netherlands, yet for Germany’s combined natural gas mix lie with << 1% far below specific break-even leakage rates. Supply chain emission scenarios demonstrate that a complete shift to natural gas would emit 30–55% (GWP20 and GWP100, respectively) less CO2-equivalent GHG than from the coal mix. However, further abating methane emissions in the petroleum sector should remain a prime effort, when considering natural gas as bridge fuel on the path to achieve the Paris climate goals.

Impact of Grid Gas Requirements on Hydrogen Blending Levels

Abstract The aim of the article is to determine what amount of hydrogen in %mol can be transferred/stored in the Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian grid gas networks, based on the limitations of chemical and physical requirements, technical requirements of the gas network, and quality requirements. The main characteristics for the analysis of mixtures of hydrogen and natural gas are the Wobbe Index, relative density, methane number, and calorific value. The calculation of the effects of hydrogen blending on the above main characteristics of a real grid gas is based on the principles described in ISO 6976:2016 and the distribution of the grid gas mole fraction components from the grid gas quality reports. The Wärtsila methane number calculator was used to illustrate the effects of hydrogen blending on the methane number of the grid gas. The calculation results show that the maximum hydrogen content in the grid gas (hydrogen and natural gas mix), depending on the grid gas quality parameters (methane number, gross heat of combustion, specific gravity, and the Wobbe Index), is in the range of 5–23 %mol H2. The minimum hydrogen content (5 %mol H2) is limited by specific gravity (&gt;0.55). The next limitation is at 12 %mol H2 and is related to the gross heat of combustion (&gt;9.69 kWh/m3). It is advisable to explore the readiness of gas grids and consumers in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania before switching to higher hydrogen blend levels. If the applicability and safety of hydrogen blends above 5 %mol is approved, then it is necessary to analyse the possible reduction of the minimum requirements for the quality of the grid gas and evaluate the associated risks (primarily related to specific gravity).

Trace moisture measurement in natural gas mixtures with a single calibration for nitrogen background gas

The measurement and control of trace moisture is an important procedure to maintain and secure the quality and safety of pipeline systems for natural gas. The natural gas mix typically comprises methane, ethane, propane, some higher hydrocarbons, carbon dioxide and nitrogen. It is too impractical to perform additional calibrations of trace moisture measurement every time the combination of gas components in the natural gas mix is changed. This paper proposes a method to separate and compensate for the effect of the background gas composition from the trace moisture measurement by using two different frequencies in a trace moisture analyzer utilizing a ball surface acoustic wave (SAW) sensor. The experiment was performed by connecting the ball SAW trace moisture sensor to supplies of trace moisture in multiple background gases from the National Physical Laboratory (NPL) Multi-gas, Multi-pressure Standard Humidity Generator, and changing the composition of the background gases including N2, air, CH4, 80% CH4/20% C2H6, and 50% CH4/50% C2H6. At the nominal humidity frost-point values of −70 °C, −50 °C, −40 °C and −30 °C, the deviations due to the change of the background gases were within 1 °C in frost point.

Experimental investigation on the effect of natural gas premixed ratio on combustion and emissions in an IDI engine

Usage of natural gas in an internal combustion engine that has different combustion technologies is considered a possible solution to reduce engine outlet emissions and lower fuel consumption. A single-cylinder IDI engine, a variable compression ratio engine equipped with a mechanical pumping diesel fuel that can change the timing of starting a fuel injection from 0° to 45° before TDC, for the empirical study of combustion and pollutants is tested. Computational fluid dynamics simulation with detailed chemical kinetic mechanisms is compared with experimental results. Experimental results are evaluated in two different engines loads of 25%, 60%, and 1100 rpm. Four cases are tested with different natural gas ratio and the same start of diesel fuel injection. Increasing the formation and release of HC and CO pollutant occurs with an increase in premix natural gas due to incomplete combustion. Furthermore, by increasing the percentage of natural gas from case 1 to 4, the reduction of NOx in the engine output occurs by increasing the natural gas ratio and at the end, reducing HC and CO emissions happen by increasing engine loading and combustion improvement. Also, in-cylinder pressure at the compression stage decreases with an increase in natural gas ratio because with the increase in the mixing of natural gas fuel with air, the special heat capacity of the mixture increases.

Improvements to Mixing of Natural Gas and Hot-Air Blast in the Air Tuyeres of Blast Furnaces with Thermal Insulation of the Blast Duct

Using natural gas as an additional fuel in a blast furnace is known to reduce coke consumption during blast-furnace production. In a standard tuyere, the hot blast pushes the natural gas up against the surface of the blast duct, resulting in poor mixing between the natural gas and the hot blast, which in turn leads to incomplete combustion and pyrolysis of the natural gas. One approach for improving mixing between the natural gas and the hot blast is to modify the blast-channel geometry. An engineering design solution was proposed, and the gas dynamics, thermal conditions, and stress/strain state of the air tuyere for this solution were analyzed via ANSYS modeling. Toroidal protrusions on an insert near the outlet of the air tuyere (swirlers) or on the gas inlet nozzle flange (rim) were considered; these protrusions also protect the insert against premature damage in areas subject to the most severe mechanical damage. The following assumptions were made: The model scope includes both the fluid medium within the blast duct and the thermal insulation insert, i.e., this can be thought of as a conjugate heat exchange problem, and heat transfer to the cooling system water was taken into account using the generalized boundary conditions. We show that modifying the insert geometry so that there is a protrusion on the working surface or installing a rim in the area where the insert starts to show damage, will increase mixing of the natural gas into the blast air and during combustion. This then increases the blast temperature at the tuyere outlet, which in turn increases the natural-gas flow rate and reduces coke usage. A similar result was achieved for wear on the insert.

EFFECT OF A CERAMIC INSERT WITH SWIRLER ON GAS DYNAMICS AND HEAT EXCHANGE IN A BLAST FURNACE TUYERE

The use of natural gas can reduce the amount of coke needed to produce cast iron. In a common tuyere natural gas is pressed against the surface of the air passage by a stream of hot blow and mixes poorly with it. It leads to incomplete burning of natural gas and its pyrolysis. One way to improve the mixing of natural gas and hot blow is to install the swirler in the air passage. In this case, however, intensification of natural gas burning inside the tuyere can lead to a burnout of the inner cylinder. In Ansys Fluent 18.2, using insulation insert with a swirler made in the form of a collar step at different places along the length of the insert, simulation of gas dynamics and its thermal state is carried out to solve the problem of mixing natural gas and hot blow in the air passage of tuyere. Simpler assumptions were adopted. Among which the simulation area included not only the fluid medium inside the air passage, but also the insulation insert, i.e. the associated problem of heat exchange was solved, and the processes of transfer of heat to water of the cooling system are taken into account in extended boundary conditions. The simplified calculation area scheme was created in the DesignModeler application, and the calculated grid was created in the AnsysMeshing application. The boundary conditions were set for blow (natural gas), as well as for the border of the insert with an air gap separating it from the internal cylinder and the fluid with the tuyere nose. Taking into account the symmetry of the computation region, the calculations were made for the half of tuyere. It has been found that mixing of natural gas and hot blow improves as the swirler moves along the length of the insert to the exit from the air passage. At the same time, in the swirler place the diameter of air passage is not less than downstream of the tuyere. The swirler`s shift toward the exit from air passage reduces the thermal load on the insert, thereby increasing its service life.

INFLUENCE OF THE METHOD OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLYING ON GAS DYNAMICS AND HEAT TRANSFER IN AIR TUYERE OF BLAST FURNACE

The use of natural gas reduces the amount of coke to produce pig iron. The flow of hot blast pushes natural gas to the surface of blowing channel in the conventional tuyere. Natural gas is poorly mixed with natural gas. This causes incomplete natural gas combustion and pyrolysis. Therefore, the problem of the completeness of combustion of natural gas is relevant. One way to improve the mixing of natural gas and hot blast is the gas pipe in the blow channel. However, dynamics and change of the thermal state of the tuyere are understudied for this option. The possibility of ignition of natural gas inside tuyeres must also be taken into account. The authors have investigated the inf­luence of the method of natural gas supplying on gas dynamics and heat transfer in air tuyere of a blast furnace with the help of modeling in ANSYS Fluent 15.0.7. Simplifying assumptions were adopted. Only fluid inside the blowing channel is considered as the modeling zone, and the processes of heat transfer to the water of cooling system are considered in the extended boundary conditions. A simplified diagram of the computational domain was created in DesignModeler and a computational mesh – in AnsysMeshing. The boundary conditions were set for blowing, natural gas, and also for the border of the fluid with copper walls. The calculations were carried out for half of the tuyere. It is shown that under the given conditions of flow of air and natural gas, combustion inside tuyere with extended to mid-channel gas blowing nozzle does not occur, and natural gas is mixed with the hot air. Improving the mixing of natural gas and hot air, one side, reduces heat flow at the exit of the blowing channel and the average temperature of the gas mixture, on the other side, creates conditions for complete combustion of natural gas outside the tuyere.

Mixing ratios quantitative assessment of source-mixed gas reservoirs by carbon isotope analysis in Dinan Uplift, Junggar Basin, China

ABSTRACTThe mixing of natural gas is common in petroliferous basin, and the quantitative measurement of mixing ratio is important. A mathematical model based on carbon isotope was established to distinguish the mixed origin in Dinan Uplift, Junggar Basin. Our studies showed that the gas from Kelamary field, the northern part of Dinan Uplift, derived from Carboniferous source rock, while the gas in the southern area is of mixed origins, which involves mixing of gas from Carboniferous and Permian source rocks. The mixing proportion of Permian-derived gas increased with Ro, ranging from 8% to 45% and from 0.5% to 1.2%, respectively.

Shale gas: a life-cycle perspective for UK production

PurposeFollowing the boom of shale gas production in the USA and the decrease in the US gas prices, increasing interest in shale gas is developing in many countries holding shale reserves and exploration is already taking place in some EU countries, including the UK. Any commercial development of shale gas in Europe requires a broad environmental assessment, recognizing the different European conditions and legislations.MethodsThis study focuses on the UK situation and estimates the environmental impacts of shale gas using life-cycle assessment (LCA); the burdens of shale gas production in the UK are compared with the burdens of the current UK natural gas mix. The main focus is on the analysis of water impacts, but a broad range of other impact categories are also considered. A sensitivity analysis is performed on the most environmentally criticized operations in shale gas production, including flowback disposal and emission control, by considering a range of possible process options.Results and discussionImproper waste water management and direct disposal or spills of waste water to river can lead to high water and human ecotoxicity. Mining of the sand and withdrawal of the water used in fracking fluids determine the main impacts on water use and degradation. However, the water degradation of the conventional natural gas supply to the UK is shown to be even higher than that of shale gas. For the global warming potential (GWP), the handling methods of the emissions associated with the hydraulic fracturing influence the results only when emissions are vented. Finally, the estimated ultimate recovery of the well has the greatest impact on the results as well as the flowback ratio and flowback disposal method.ConclusionsThis paper provides insights to better understand the future development of shale gas in the UK. Adequate waste water management and emission handling significantly reduce the environmental impacts of shale gas production. Policy makers should consider that shale gas at the same time increases the water consumption and decreases the water degradation when compared with the gas mix supply. Furthermore, the environmental impacts of shale gas should be considered according to the low productivity that force the drilling and exploitation of a high number of wells.

Some future scenarios of Russian natural gas in Europe

This study contains a number of scenario studies to assess the share of Russian natural gas in the European natural gas mix going forward. Scenarios were calculated using the NEXANT world gas model (WGM) integrated in ERIRAS modeling information complex SCANER. The calculations in the WGM are based on demand and potential production forecast in each gas producing and/or gas consuming country of the world up to 2040. The paper continues with a discussion of the (limitations of the) most often debated alternatives to Russian gas. We conclude that remarkable little changes in the European natural gas mix in the scenarios under study, and that absent very drastic policy interventions Russian natural gas will continue to play a prominent role in the EU.