On the climate benefit of a coal-to-gas shift in Germany\u2019s electric power sector

Stefan Ladage,Rüdiger Lutz,Andreas Bahr,Martin Blumenberg,Sandro Schmidt,Dieter Franke

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-90839-7

Stefan Ladage, Rüdiger Lutz + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-90839-7

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Abstract

Methane emissions along the natural gas supply chain are critical for the climate benefit achievable by fuel switching from coal to natural gas in the electric power sector. For Germany, one of the world’s largest primary energy consumers, with a coal and natural gas share in the power sector of 35% and 13%, respectively, we conducted fleet-conversion modelling for reference year 2018, taking domestic and export country specific greenhouse gas (GHG)-emissions in the natural gas and coal supply chains into account. Methane leakage rates below 4.9% (GWP20; immediate 4.1%) in the natural gas supply chain lead to overall reduction of CO2-equivalent GHG-emissions by fuel switching. Supply chain methane emissions vary significantly for the import countries Russia, Norway and The Netherlands, yet for Germany’s combined natural gas mix lie with << 1% far below specific break-even leakage rates. Supply chain emission scenarios demonstrate that a complete shift to natural gas would emit 30–55% (GWP20 and GWP100, respectively) less CO2-equivalent GHG than from the coal mix. However, further abating methane emissions in the petroleum sector should remain a prime effort, when considering natural gas as bridge fuel on the path to achieve the Paris climate goals.

Highlights

Methane emissions along the natural gas supply chain are critical for the climate benefit achievable by fuel switching from coal to natural gas in the electric power sector
We developed several case scenarios for potential leakage rates in the natural gas supply chain for Germany, including a potential liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply from the U.S and examine their greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potentials compared to coal
2018, we modelled the natural gas supply chain methane emissions that would lead to a relative climate benefit from a coal to natural gas fuel switch

Summary

Introduction

Methane emissions along the natural gas supply chain are critical for the climate benefit achievable by fuel switching from coal to natural gas in the electric power sector. Even a coal-togas fuel switch in Germany would provide the opportunity for GHG emissions reductions, since most of these studies show supply chain natural gas leakage rates below our median immediate break-even leakage rate of 4.1% for Germany, even more so for G WP20 and GWP100 scenarios.

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