Comparing Greenhouse Gas Impacts from Domestic Coal and Imported Natural Gas Electricity Generation in China

Abstract

In 2019, coal power accounted for 65% of China’s electricity and coal accounted for 71% of its 10.2 GTpa CO2 emissions. To meet its pledge of peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, China plans to shift away from coal. Fuel switching to natural gas for electrical generation is an interim solution that is in the portfolio of measures for meeting these goals. However, because of variability in emissions from coal and natural gas supply chains, the potential for benefiting from fuel switching also varies. Here, we use a high-resolution basin-to-power plant analysis for estimating methane and CO2 emissions in natural gas and coal supply chains. We illustrate how the variations in supply chains at the level of the sourcing of natural gas and coal from individual production regions can lead to differences in the effectiveness of fuel switching in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The analyses are applied to four switching scenarios from domestic coal to imported natural gas at representative power plants in China. Life cycle emission factors for the natural gas supply chains evaluated in this study range from 650 to 1000 kg carbon dioxide/MWh of electricity generated and from 2.3 to 13 kg methane/MWh, depending on the allocation choice, power generation technology, and production region. For the coal supply chain, emissions range from 850 to 1100 kg carbon dioxide/MWh and from 0.4 to 4.0 kg methane/MWh, depending on the power generation technology and production region. We show that for these scenarios, in the short term fuel switching can increase radiative forcing by a factor of 3 or decrease it by 70%, depending on the supply chains, generation technology, and, in the case of natural gas, co-product allocation choices in the supply chain. We also quantify consumptive losses of natural gas over long supply chains and show that fuel switching results in differences in radiative forcing that evolve over time due to the influence of methane emissions.