Mitigation Costs Research Articles

An assessment of China’s methane mitigation potential and costs and uncertainties through 2060

China, the world’s largest methane emitter, is increasingly focused on methane mitigation in support of its climate goals, but gaps exist in the understanding of key methane sources, as well as mitigation opportunities and their associated uncertainties. We use a bottom-up modeling approach with updated methane emission projections and abatement cost analysis to account for additional sources, uncertainties, and mitigation measures in China’s energy and agricultural sectors. Here we show the significant cost-effective potential for reducing methane emissions in China by 2030, with 660 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent possible with average negative abatement costs of US$6.40 per tonne CO2e. Most of this potential exists in the energy sector, particularly coal mining, but the greater potential will shift towards agriculture by 2060. Aquaculture and biochar applications in rice cultivation have net economic benefits but need greater support for deployment, while new mitigation measures will be needed for remaining emissions from enteric fermentation, rice cultivation, and wastewater.

US land sector mitigation investments and emissions implications

The land sector is anticipated to play an important role in achieving U.S. GHG emissions targets by reducing emissions and increasing sequestration from the atmosphere. This study assesses how much different levels of investment could stimulate land-based mitigation activities in the U.S. By applying a dynamic economic model of the land use sectors, with representation of 26 forestry and agricultural mitigation strategies across 11 U.S. regions, the study shows that annual investments of $2.4 billion could deliver abatement of around 80 MtCO2e annually. Under an optimal allocation of investments, the forestry sector and the Corn Belt are projected to receive the largest share of funds. Restricting land-based activities eligible for funds significantly reduces overall potential mitigation. For instance, if $24 billion investments are allocated only to agricultural activities, mitigation declines by 48% to 54 MtCO2e/yr over the next ten years. Finally, the level of abatement from each policy depends on the timing of implementation as the lowest cost mitigation actions are generally taken by the policy implemented first.

A cost-effective climate mitigation pathway for China with co-benefits for sustainability

Climate mitigation policies have broad environmental and socioeconomic impacts and thus underpin progress towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Through national-scale integrated modeling, we explore the spillover effects of China’s long-term climate mitigation pathways (CMPs) on achieving all 17 SDGs, and then identify a cost-effective CMP for China with co-benefits for sustainability. Our analysis indicates that the 9 original CMPs and 180 bundled CMPs can both substantially boost the SDGs, resulting in an increase of 6.33–8.86 and 5.90–9.33 points in overall SDG score (0=no progress, 100=full achievement) by 2060, compared to the Reference pathway of 70.75 points, respectively. The identified cost-effective CMP deals with the trade-offs among sustainability, CO2 emissions and mitigation cost, and maximizes the synergies between them. This CMP can inform future directions for China’s policy-makers to maximize the potential synergies between carbon neutrality and long-term sustainable development.

Implications of accelerated and delayed climate action for Ireland’s energy transition under carbon budgets

Limiting global warming requires the effective implementation of energy mitigation measures by individual countries. However, the consequences of the timing of these efforts on the technical feasibility of adhering to cumulative carbon budgets—which determines future global warming—are underexplored. Moreover, existing national studies on carbon budgets either overlook integrated sectoral interactions, path dependencies, or comprehensive demand-side strategies. To address this, we analyse Ireland’s mitigation pathways under equal per-capita carbon budgets using an energy systems optimisation model. Our findings reveal that delayed mitigation brings forward the need for a net-zero target by five years, risks carbon lock-in and stranded assets, increase reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies and leads to higher long-term mitigation costs. To keep the Paris Agreement targets, countries must set and meet accelerated mid-term mitigation goals and address energy demand.

Exploring Vessels from the Offshore Oil and Gas Industry in Design of Deep-Sea Mining Vessels

_ In this paper, vessels from the offshore oil and gas industry are explored in the conceptual design of value-robust deep-sea mining vessel solutions. The responsive systems comparison method is applied in a case addressing two hypothetical stakeholders: a mining company and a vessel operator. Their value propositions are outlined and pave the ground for important attributes that consolidate into conceptual vessel design solutions. The cost–benefit trade-offs for various design solutions and technology choices are discussed for different future scenarios. The results indicate that complexity drives high CAPEX generation, yielding so-called gold-plated designs. Lower cost mitigation measures should be taken to ensure future missions of a deep-sea mining vessel. The consequences of design choices on commercial considerations are discussed, such as the vessels’ second-hand value in the market and alternative uses. Keywords deep-sea mining; offshore vessels; ship design; technology transfer; cost–benefit; scenario-testing

Hydrodynamic model-driven evolutionary algorithm-based operation optimization of an experimental drainage pumping station

ABSTRACT The effective operation of pumping stations plays a crucial role in urban flood management. However, challenges persist in optimizing pumping station operations, including inaccuracies in characterizing flood propagation and the high computational costs associated with optimization. This study introduces a novel optimization approach for pumping station operation that integrates a hydrodynamic model with evolutionary algorithms, leveraging data-driven technology. The method iteratively computes operation rules using the adaptive particle swarm optimization (APSO) algorithm to identify optimal solutions. The hydrodynamic model accurately simulates flood propagation and provides hydraulic parameters for the objective function and constraints of the APSO algorithm. With the predictive capability of the Kriging model, the optimization enhances efficiency by reducing the frequency of calls to the hydrodynamic model. A study case of a flood management digital twin experimental platform was then taken for the application. Compared to initial operation rules, the objective function value of the proposed method is reduced by 28.7, 32.5, and 25%, respectively, under varying magnitudes of unsteady flood inflows, demonstrating high performances in both flood mitigation and operation cost control. Moreover, the method only requires 70 calls to the hydrodynamic model to formulate the decision operation rule.

Optimizing green hydrogen strategies in Tunisia: A combined SWOT-MCDM approach

Tunisia's rapid industrial expansion and population growth have created a pressing energy deficit, despite the country's significant, yet largely untapped, renewable energy potential. This study addressed this challenge by developing a comprehensive framework to identify and evaluate strategies for promoting green hydrogen production from renewable energy sources in Tunisia. A Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat (SWOT) analysis, incorporating social, economic, and environmental dimensions, was conducted to formulate potential solutions. The Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) method facilitated the weighting of SWOT factors and sub-factors. Subsequently, a multi-criteria decision-making approach, employing the gray technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS-G) method (validated by gray additive ratio assessment (ARAS-G), gray complex proportional assessment (COPRAS-G), and gray multi-objective optimization by ratio analysis (MOORA-G), was used to rank the identified strategies.The SWOT analysis revealed "Strengths" as the most influential factor with a relative weight of 47.3 %, followed by "Weaknesses" (26.5 %), "Threats" (15.6 %), and "Opportunities" (10.6 %). Specifically, experts emphasized Tunisia's renewable energy potential (21.89 %) and robust power system (12.11 %) as primary strengths. Conversely, high investment costs (11.2 %) and political instability (7.77 %) posed substantial threat. Positive socio-economic impacts represented a key opportunity with a score of 5.2 %. As for the strategies prioritizing criteria, production cost ranked first with a score of 13.5 %, followed by environmental impact (12.8 %), renewable energy potential (12.0 %), and mitigation costs (11.3 %). The gray TOPSIS analysis identified two key strategies: leveraging Tunisia's wind and solar resources and fostering regional cooperation for project implementation. The robustness of these strategies is confirmed by the strong correlation between TOPSIS-G, ARAS-G, COPRAS-G, and MOORA-G results. Overall, the study provides a comprehensive roadmap and expert-informed decision-support tools, offering valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and stakeholders in Tunisia and other emerging economies facing similar energy challenges.

Agricultural Productivity and Climate Mitigation

Agriculture will play a central role in meeting greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets, as the sector currently contributes ∼22% of global emissions. Because emissions are directly tied to resources employed in farm production, such as land, fertilizer, and ruminant animals, the productivity of input use tends to be inversely related to emissions intensity. We review evidence on how productivity gains in agriculture have contributed to historical changes in emissions, how they affect land use emissions both locally and globally, and how investments in research and development (R&D) affect productivity and therefore emissions. The world average agricultural emissions intensity fell by more than half since 1990, with a strong correlation between a region's agricultural productivity growth and reduction in emissions intensity. Additional investment in agricultural R&D offers an opportunity for cost-effective (<US$30 per ton carbon dioxide) and large-scale emissions reductions. Innovations that target specific commodities or inputs could even further reduce the cost of climate mitigation in agriculture.

Decarbonizing urban passenger transportation: Policy effectiveness and interactions

The urban passenger transportation plays a pivotal role in achieving ambitious climate targets. Exploring its opportunities for decarbonization requires a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of different policy designs. This study develops an integrated model for simulating the effectiveness and interactions of various policy designs aimed at decarbonizing urban passenger transportation. It distinguishes itself from previous studies by considering a broad range of criteria, including mitigation effectiveness, cost effectiveness, and transition effectiveness. It also assesses the overall performance of various policy options based on these effectiveness criteria. In an urban case study, we have identified the complementary nature of the majority of policy mixes and also revealed conflicting effects when implementing a supplementary policy, such as carbon tax and fuel economy regulation. The concurrent implementation of multiple policies can yield synergistic effects or trade-offs, with the former being widely acknowledged in the context of energy transition, while the latter is more commonly observed in relation to emissions reductions and cost savings. This study also reveals a trade-off effect across various effectiveness criteria, underscoring the significance of formulating well-balanced policy packages to promote sustainable urban passenger transport.

Radon mitigation in Native communities: A partnership between a tribal health clinic and University of Wisconsin Carbone Cancer Center.

44 Background: Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in the United States, and the Native communities in Wisconsin bear an outsized burden of lung cancer. Radon testing is attainable for these communities, but the cost of one-time mitigation is high and out of reach for many. The University of Wisconsin Carbone Cancer Center (UWCCC) partnered with the Stockbridge-Munsee Band of the Mohican Nation (S-M) Health Center to test homes for radon levels and mitigate (repair) those structures when levels were high to mitigate a structural barrier of health. Prior tests had suggested 10% of homes across Wisconsin test “high” for radon (above 4 pCi/L). The mean radon level among tested homes in Wisconsin is 5.7 pCi/L (American Lung Association, Radon Testing Disparities: Wisconsin, 2022). Methods: The project was co-developed with the UW and S-M. A key partner was the Wisconsin Radon Program, housed at the Wisconsin Department of Health Services. We aimed to educate, test for radon, and mitigate all homes that tested high for radon. Education, promotion of the program and testing were done in collaboration between state, university, and tribal officials. The environmental health and community health coordinators at S-M was the key person for distributing and ensuring the return of kits. Mitigation was performed by a private certified contractor over the project. We used descriptive statistics to evaluate the percentage of Wisconsin homes that tested high for radon in our sample. We also surveyed community members about their satisfaction with the mitigation contractor. Results: This project was done from April 2023 to April 2024. Staff reported educational sessions were successful in improving their knowledge of radon and testing and mitigation procedures. The S-M had 1822 enrolled tribal members at the start of the study. A total of 85 kits were distributed, with 64 returned (75.3% return rate). Of those, 42 of 64 tested positive for high radon in the home (65.6%), much higher than the expected 10% positive rate. The mean radon level among all homes was 14.1 pCi/L (0-111.6pCi/L) and 18.7 pCi/L among homes that tested positive. All homes testing high have completed radon mitigation. All reported their homes could not have been mitigated without this collaboration. The community was satisfied with the services of the certified contractor. Conclusions: Radon levels were much higher than anticipated in Native lands in Wisconsin and may explain higher rates of lung cancer. Cancer centers are key partners in addressing high radon levels and mitigating structural determinants of health among Native communities, such as with housing quality.

Enclosing gases by gas circulation to establish photosynthetic O2-supported algal-bacterial granular system in pseudo-closed sequencing batch reactors for greenhouse gas emission mitigation

Photosynthetic O2-supported algal-bacterial aerobic granular sludge (AGS) presents great potential in carbon emission mitigation and operation cost saving in wastewater treatment processes. This study used gas circulation to enclose the photosynthetic O2 and the emitted CO2 for the development of photosynthetic O2-supported algal-bacterial AGS in a pseudo-closed sequencing batch reactors (SBR), targeting greenhouse gas emission mitigation (including CO2, N2O and CH4). Results showed that photosynthetic O2-supported AGS with abundant Cyanobacteria were achieved in this pseudo-closed SBR under strong light conditions. Although gas circulation enclosed acidic CO2, excessive Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in biomass still led to the increase of pH, followed by the occurrence of CO2 limitation and the loss of functional strains and extracellular polymeric substances, eventually collapsing granular structure. Interestingly, gas circulation can reduce GHG emissions due to prolonged contact time between gases and microorganisms. Chl-a contents showed an inversely proportional relationship with CO2 emission factors (0.04–0.61 kg-CO2/kg-COD), but over-high algae in biomass may induce more N2O emissions (0.45 % to 5.3 %) by affecting nitrification and denitrification processes. Compared to CO2 and N2O, the emission of CH4 was negligible. It was estimated that zero non-CO2 GHG emissions could be achieved when stable granules containing Chl-a content of > 5.8 mg/g-MLVSS. This study proposed that achieving low-carbon photosynthetic O2-supported algal-bacterial AGS requires minimizing the adverse impact of existing algae on denitrification and nitrification.

A framework for cost-effectiveness analysis of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in dairy industry with an application to dairy farms in China

The dairy industry is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Although much effort has been directed to explore the cost-effective measures for many sectors such as electricity, building infrastructure, transportation, research on mitigation measures within dairy industry remains limited. A notable obstacle is the absence of a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) framework to guide decision-makers and practitioners in this sector. In response, we propose a comprehensive CEA framework tailored to mitigate GHG emissions in the dairy industry. Our conceptual framework consists of six steps: defining the system boundary to determine the activities generating GHG emissions; identifying GHG emission sources within the system boundary; identifying potential mitigation measures; determining methods to quantify GHG emissions; collecting data to estimate both GHG emissions and mitigation costs; and applying general econometric methodologies to analyze the cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures. We further conducted a case study focusing on dairy farms in China, analyzing three categories of mitigation measures: feed, energy, and manure management. The results indicate that implementing effective feed and energy measures is a cost-saving strategy, reducing the cost per unit of milk production. Conversely, adopting effective manure management measures may lead to increased costs for dairy farms. The findings offer strategic recommendations for reducing GHG emissions from dairy production in China and provide analytical insights and strategic references applicable to other developing countries.

Climate-driven shifts in freshwater biodiversity will impact mitigation costs for hydropower

Climate change is forecasted to drastically alter freshwater fish and mussel species distribution. Hydropower dam reservoirs, which modify downstream thermal regimes, may interact with climate change's impact on species distribution. This distribution shift may feedback, affecting hydropower operation costs through environmental compliance. We investigated how freshwater species distribution will shift due to climate change and hydropower reservoirs in the conterminous United States (CONUS), and how this will affect biodiversity mitigation costs for privately-owned hydropower plants. In general, using environmental niche modeling, we found that climate change increased the range of both freshwater fish and mussel species on average. For fish, this was mainly due to the expanded habitat for warm-water and cool-water fish species despite the diminish in habitat for cold-water species. Compared to climate change, thermal stratification of hydropower reservoirs had a small impact on the future range changes of these species in the tailwaters but showed an interaction with the effect of climate change on species range. Geographically, we projected an increase of species richness in the west and a decrease in the central and east of CONUS for fish, while projecting uniform increase for mussels. With this shift in species distribution, we estimated that the Northwest region will face the largest increase in mitigation cost, while the majority of plants in the Southeast will experience a decrease in cost.

Enhanced agricultural carbon sinks provide benefits for farmers and the climate

Carbon sequestration on agricultural land, albeit long-time neglected, offers substantial mitigation potential. Here we project, using an economic land-use model, that these options offer cumulative mitigation potentials comparable to afforestation by 2050 at 160 USD2022 tCO2 equivalent (tCO2e−1), with most of it located in the Global South. Carbon sequestration on agricultural land could provide producers around the world with additional revenues of up to 375 billion USD2022 at 160 USD2022 tCO2e−1 and allow achievement of net-zero emissions in the agriculture, forestry and other land-use sectors by 2050 already at economic costs of around 80–120 USD2022 tCO2e−1. This would, in turn, decrease economy-wide mitigation costs and increase gross domestic product (+0.6%) by the mid-century in 1.5 °C no-overshoot climate stabilization scenarios compared with mitigation scenarios that do not consider these options. Unlocking these potentials requires the deployment of highly efficient institutions and monitoring systems over the next 5 years across the whole world, including sub-Saharan Africa, where the largest mitigation potential exists.

Balancing greenwashing risks and forest carbon sequestration benefits: A simulation model linking formal and voluntary carbon markets

Voluntary carbon markets (VCMs) offer energy-intensive firms a cost-effective means to reduce carbon mitigation expenses through promoting forest conservation. However, concerns about greenwashing may deter firms from using these options, which are susceptible to illegal forest harvesting. This study examines whether firms purchasing carbon credits from forestry-based communities can help strengthen forest conservation, mitigate project risks, improve environmental outcomes, and reduce abatement costs. We examine a large Indian steel firm, with an annual production capacity of 4 million tons, issuing green bonds to fund afforestation in Himalayan forest communities. Using industry-level average emissions, abatement costs, and output data for Indian firms, we develop a dynamic optimization model to determine optimal abatement strategies, considering the risk of future forest carbon loss from VCMs. The model, utilizing examples and data from existing carbon sequestration programs in the Himalayan states, offers insights into promoting high-integrity VCMs through formal emission market linkage. Findings suggest that firms' involvement in compliance emissions markets provides an alternative route to accessing affordable carbon credits when abatement costs are high. Additionally, engaging in the VCM reduces expenses related to emission reduction targets. However, with elevated greenwashing risks, firms reduce their use of green bonds in VCMs. Participation in the VCM positively reinforces forest conservation and enhances environmental services when greenwashing risks are absent, further lowering carbon mitigation costs. To enhance VCM integrity, further research is needed on how community conservation norms influence illegal harvesting.

Effects of energy sectors on the emission of carbon dioxide gas and environmental temperature

ABSTRACT In this paper, we have proposed a nonlinear mathematical model to study the dynamics of atmospheric carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) and atmospheric temperature due to energy sectors. Energy sector is a major contributor of atmospheric carbon dioxide. We have studied the effects of energy consumption and human population on CO 2 level and temperature. Burning of fossil fuels results in an increase of CO 2 level and temperature. To curb the CO 2 level and temperature, efficient mitigation options are required. Mitigation options, which reduce emission rate of CO 2 , energy consumption rate and rate of increase in temperature, are considered in this model. By taking the efficiencies of mitigation options as control variables, the optimality system is derived. Numerical simulations are carried out to validate our analytical findings. The optimal profiles of control variables are plotted for different values of emission rate of CO 2 , energy consumption rate and rate of increase in temperature. Maximum efficiencies of mitigation options are also plotted against to reduce emission rate of CO 2 , energy consumption rate and rate of increase in temperature. It is found that mitigation cost of implementation of mitigation options can be minimized by implementing more efficient mitigation options.

Exploring Synergistic GHG Emissions Mitigation Potential and Costs of Room Air Conditioners.

This study explores the potential of synergistically reducing direct (refrigerant) and indirect (electricity) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the global room air conditioning (RAC) sector, based on 80% of global RAC manufactured in China. Three scenarios are evaluated: Business-as-usual (BAU) based on maintaining refrigerant and energy efficiency levels from 2021 China RAC sales shares, Kigali Amendment compliant with 10% energy efficiency improvement by 2025 (KAE), and accelerated refrigerant transition and energy efficiency improvement (ATE). Each scenario considers the costs of refrigerant and efficiency measures for export market groups based on Kigali Amendment classifications. BAU predicts around 1 Gt CO2-eq average annual global RAC emissions (2022-2060). Cumulative emission reductions in China's RAC manufacturing under KAE and ATE are 12.2 and 17.2 Gt CO2-eq A5II and A5I (except China), presenting cost-effective abatement measures, with average costs of -$51.4 and -$68.8/t CO2-eq in KAE and ATE. Cumulative average abatement costs are around $18 and $4/t CO2-eq globally. KAE and ATE scenarios would avoid surface temperature rises of 0.023 (±0.002) °C and 0.027 (±0.003) °C, respectively, versus BAU. Collaboration between China and importing countries is urged to enhance energy efficiency in RACs traded, ensuring sustainable mitigation aligned with the Kigali Amendment.

What counts as climate mitigation costs

What counts as climate mitigation costs

Exploring the machined surface characteristics of Haynes 25 superalloy: Cost mitigation and quality enhancement perspective

The current study investigates the surface characteristics and machining cost of electrical discharge machining (EDM) of Haynes 25 superalloy using tools made by additively manufactured CuCr1Zr, pure copper and graphite. Before assessing machinability, the workpiece and tool materials were characterized using Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray Diffraction (XRD) and evaluations of tensile strength, micro-hardness, density and thermal conductivity. The effects of current (I), voltage (V), pulse duration (Ton), duty cycle (τ) and flushing pressure (Fp) is analyzed on surface characteristics viz. surface roughness (SR), surface crack density (SCD), recast layer thickness (RCT), heat-affected zone (HAZ), micro-hardness (MH) and machining cost (MC). Post machining XRD analysis revealed the formation of cobalt oxides like (CoO and Co3O4) affecting the micro-hardness of the machined surface. Alongside, a field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) is carried out which confirms, the deposition of metal carbides and oxides on the EDMed surface. Current and pulse-on-time significantly influenced performance, with optimal EDM parameters identified and validated through confirmative experiments, resulting in a mean error of ∼2.84 %. It is seen that the use of additively manufactured CuCr1Zr tools resulted in improved machined surface characteristics and a more cost-effective approach for producing intricate profiles with minimal surface defects.

The economic and fiscal transition costs of global climate mitigation in fossil fuel export dependent economies

Global decarbonization has large implications for trade and financial flows, and with few economies likely to be more affected than those relying heavily on exporting fossil fuels. This study first identifies 40 highly fossil fuel dependent economies and then, through several empirical strategies, examines the potential implications for oil rents, public finances and economic growth from global decarbonization. First, it is estimated that as a group, countries would lose more than 60 percent of oil rents alone, or between (present value adjusted) US$12–14 trillion, for the period 2023–2040 under a global ‘net-zero 2050’ versus a ‘business as usual’ scenario, - a loss equivalent in size to between 120 and 142 percent of GDP. Second, local projections model estimates suggest that there are large and persistent adverse growth and fiscal impacts associated with global decarbonization in emerging market and developing economy oil exporters. Here, a 10 percentage point (pp) decrease in (real) oil price inflation is associated with a decline of 1.58 percent in (real) GDP four periods after the shock; a decrease in annual government revenue (as a percentage of GDP) by between 0.6 and 0.8 pp and; an addition of about 0.5 pp to government debt per year. Finally, the study discusses relative vulnerabilities, and the domestic and international policy options needed to mitigate transition cost. Aside from a handful of primarily high-income countries, most countries have little or no savings to help them cushion an inevitable steep fall in demand for their main export and source of revenue, and more than one third of countries are characterized by either low or medium levels of human development. Whereas several countries are relatively well positioned to successfully mitigate the transition cost provided urgently prioritized domestic reforms, a substantial subgroup of countries will need international assistance to avoid potentially large negative socio-economic consequences.