Deployment of carbon removal technologies could reduce the rapid and potentially disruptive pace of decarbonization in South Africa's climate ambitions

Abstract

As a developing country, South Africa faces the risk of having to undertake disruptive actions to meet its internationally pledged emission reduction targets. It has become necessary to find alternative measures for South Africa to meet its climate targets without such a disruptive and aggressive transformation of its energy sector. To truly reach net-zero CO2 emissions, South Africa must ensure that residual emissions from its recalcitrant sectors are equally compensated by carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Given the potential for CDR technologies to delay the need for rapid emissions cuts, we leverage this characteristic to explore their role in helping South Africa achieve its climate targets on time, but through a less disruptive and overly aggressive pace of energy system decarbonization. Using an integrated assessment model, we show that while reaching its emission reduction targets, the presence of novel CDR (nCDR) approaches could significantly reduce South Africa's mitigation costs to $155-240/tCO2 instead of $190–590/tCO2 by 2050 in the absence of nCDR. Furthermore, the availability of nCDR may allow for a more gradual transition towards renewable and nuclear power generation compared to scenarios without nCDR. Importantly, we reveal that nCDR could help avoid asset stranding of up to 4–6 GW and $15–25 billion in associated costs between 2016 and 2050. However, this comes at the cost of higher residual greenhouse gas emissions due to the continued reliance on fossil fuels under nCDR availability. Overall, South Africa's priority must remain on decarbonization, especially in sectors where fuel switching and energy efficiency are feasible. Nonetheless, the complementary role of nCDR must not be underestimated, and South Africa should begin investing in these emerging technologies to support its ambitious climate goals.