Regional carbon emission pathways under central-local coordination: Objective constraints and collaborative incentives

Abstract

The commitment of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China has attracted global attention. In high-emission countries, the coordination between the central and local governments will inevitably influence climate governance. This study establishes the Regional Collaborations Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy, predicting carbon emission pathways and social cost of carbon for regions within China. The design of six scenarios incorporates objective constraints and collaborative incentives to identify the impact of central-local coordination on climate governance. Results indicate that objective constraints will mitigate 0.17–0.60 Gt carbon emissions in all regions, reaching carbon peak 5–10 years earlier. Collaborative incentives will contribute to achieving carbon neutrality for regions in the long term, especially the Yangtze River Economic Belt advancing 7 years. The combination of objective constraints and collaborative incentives will facilitate China reaching carbon peak in 2029 and achieving carbon neutrality in 2057. The social cost of carbon will vary across regions due to socioeconomic conditions, initiative choices, and mitigation efforts. Moreover, the analysis of structural uncertainty can help China to undertake timely climate actions and avoid excessive mitigation costs. Based on these findings, this study proposes policy suggestions to improve climate governance by dynamic objective management, innovative collaborative forms, enhancing synergistic effects.