Mitigation Challenges Research Articles

Incorporating Air Quality Improvement at a Local Level into Climate Policy in the Transport Sector: A Case Study in Bandung City, Indonesia

Climate policy has a strong influence on policy processes at national levels in Indonesia, while other policies with a focus on air quality improvement are being implemented at local levels. Indonesia as a developing country has committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 29 percent by the year 2030. This calls into question the extent to which cities and local governments can cope with the challenges of climate change mitigation. The purpose of the research is to find out the extent to which local air pollution reduction policies can contribute to the climate change mitigation program. The research design involved an empirical case study on governance and policy relevant to climate change efforts to lower GHG in Bandung City, Indonesia. The study evaluated the air quality improvement and the climate change mitigation programs using the actor-based framework of the Contextual Interaction Theory (CIT). The governance and stakeholder characteristic of climate change mitigation were also analysed using the structural context part of the CIT framework. The result shows that air quality improvement policy is implemented separately from climate policy; the latter operates at the national level and the former at the local level. By looking at the actor interaction analysis, the study concludes that a more holistic environmental policy approach would be more efficient at reducing local air pollution and contributing to the mitigation of climate change.

Vapor intrusion mitigation challenges posed by a classic urban setting

AbstractAECOM's Environmental Remediation Services Group, under a Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PADEP) remediation contract, was tasked with assessing potential vapor intrusion risks and mitigating identified risks at an active commercial property affected by a former adjacent laundry and dry cleaning operation. The former dry cleaning operation was positioned in the center of row‐buildings containing various commercial businesses. The neighboring active commercial property is an antiquated building that operates as a coffee shop. The coffee shop building contains a service area, a kitchen, and a rear conference room on the first floor, a storage area on the second floor, and a partial basement. The basement has been observed to periodically flood. Adjacent to the coffee shop building is an operating hair and nail salon that formerly functioned as one of the dry cleaning operations buildings with known soil, groundwater, and soil gas impacts. Due to the disposition of the coffee shop building, a methodical approach was implemented to characterize the potential vapor intrusion risk and included a diagnostic building inspection that identified required management of basement apertures and abatement of periodic flooding prior to vapor intrusion mitigation system design and installation.

Beyond the tragedy of the commons: Reframing effective climate change governance

The tragedy of the commons provides a powerful narrative for a class of environmental problems, and serves to frame them in a way that allows people to identify effective solution strategies. But the problem frame also rests on a set of factual and value-based assumptions, and is inappropriate to guide decision-making when these assumptions are violated. The climate change mitigation challenge – reducing greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from the energy sector, to limit global warming to less than 1.5 or 2°C – violates these assumptions. Climate change requires us not to reduce, but to completely prohibit greenhouse gas emissions. Before any such prohibition is feasible, it is first essential to develop a clean energy system that can meet our basic needs. The main barriers to this are not economic, but rather are associated with evolving knowledge, networks, and institutions. Framing climate change in evolutionary terms can help us to appraise policy options more effectively, and ultimate identify those that get us where we need to go.

Mitigating cetacean bycatch in coastal Ecuador: Governance challenges for small-scale fisheries

Bycatch of marine fauna by small-scale (artisanal) fisheries is an important anthropogenic mortality source to several species of cetaceans, including humpback whales and odontocetes, in Ecuador's marine waters. Long-term monitoring actions and varied conservation efforts have been conducted by non-governmental organizations along the Ecuadorian coast, pointing toward the need for a concerted mitigation plan and actions to hamper cetaceans’ bycatch. Nevertheless, little has currently been done by the government and regional authorities to address marine mammal interactions with fisheries in eastern Pacific Ocean artisanal fisheries. This study provides a review of Ecuador's current status concerning cetacean bycatch, and explores the strengths and weaknesses of past and current programs aiming to tackle the challenges of bycatch mitigation. To bolster our appraisal of the policies, a synthesis of fishers’ perceptions of the bycatch problem is presented in concert with recommendations for fostering fishing community-based conservation practices integrated with policies to mitigate cetacean bycatch. Our appraisal, based upon the existing literature, indicates a situation of increasing urgency. Taking into consideration the fishers’ perceptions and attitudes, fisheries governance in Ecuador should draw inspiration from a truly bottom-up, participatory framework based on stakeholder engagement processes; if it is based on a top-down, regulatory approach, it is less likely to succeed. To carry out this process, a community-based conservation programs to provide conditions for empowering fishing communities is recommend. This would serve as an initial governance framework for fishery policy for conserving marine mammals while maximizing the economic benefits from sustainable small-scale fisheries in Ecuador.

AGRICULTURAL BIODIVERSITY IN CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLANNING

Abstract Climate change is one of the biggest threats to food production worldwide. Recently, an increasing number of initiatives have embraced the concept of climate smart agriculture to respond to climate change adaptation and mitigation challenges. A central component of this approach is the use of agricultural biodiversity at the genetic, species and ecosystem levels for increasing productivity, adaptability and resilience of agricultural production systems. This paper analyses the extent to which the use of agricultural biodiversity is included in the National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) developed by 50 least developed countries to guide their actions in relation to climate adaptation. The results of the analyses indicate that in the majority of the NAPAs, agricultural biodiversity has not been incorporated in a comprehensive manner and that increased efforts can be done at national and international levels for effectively making agricultural biodiversity work for most vulnerable countries’ adaptation to climate change. Key words: agrobiodiversity, NAPAs, smallholder farmers, developing countries, climate change adaptation

The role of CO2 capture and utilization in mitigating climate change

This Perspective considers the potential mitigation contribution of carbon capture and utilization, such as chemical conversation or to enhance oil recovery. The authors find it will account for a small amount of the required total mitigation effort. To offset the cost associated with CO2 capture and storage (CCS), there is growing interest in finding commercially viable end-use opportunities for the captured CO2. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential contribution of carbon capture and utilization (CCU). Owing to the scale and rate of CO2 production compared to that of utilization allowing long-term sequestration, it is highly improbable the chemical conversion of CO2 will account for more than 1% of the mitigation challenge, and even a scaled-up enhanced oil recovery (EOR)-CCS industry will likely only account for 4–8%. Therefore, whilst CO2-EOR may be an important economic incentive for some early CCS projects, CCU may prove to be a costly distraction, financially and politically, from the real task of mitigation.

We are losing the climate change mitigation challenge; Is it too late to recover?

ABSTRACT

Special Issue on Disaster and Big Data Part 2

6 years have passed since the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. Many new findings, insights and suggestions have been made and were implemented in disaster observation, sensing, simulation, and damage determination. The challenges for disaster mitigation against future catastrophic natural disasters, such as the Tokyo metropolitan earthquake and Nankai Trough earthquake, are how we share the visions of the possible impacts and prepare for mitigating the losses and damages, and how we enhance society’s disaster resilience. A huge amount of information called “disaster big data” obtained, which are related to the dynamic flow of a large number of people, vehicles and goods inside and outside the affected areas. This has dramatically facilitated our understanding of how our society has responded to the unprecedented catastrophes. The key question is how we use big data in establishing the social systems that respond promptly, sensibly and effectively to natural disasters, and in withstanding the adversities with resilience. Researchers with various expertise are working together under the collaborative project called JST CREST “Establishing the most advanced disaster reduction management system by fusion of real-time disaster simulation and big data assimilation.” The project aims to identify possible disaster scenarios caused by earthquake and tsunami that occur and progress in a chained or compound manner and to create new technologies to lead responses and disaster mitigation measures that encourages the society to get over the disaster. This special issue titled “Disaster and Big Data Part 2,” including 13 papers, aims to share the recent progress of the project as the sequel of Part 1 published in March 2016. As an editor of this issue, I would like to express our deep gratitude for the insightful comments and suggestions made by the reviewers and the members of the editorial committee.

Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets

Carbon budgets, which define the total allowable CO2 emissions associated with a given global climate target, are a useful way of framing the climate mitigation challenge. In this paper, we review the geophysical basis for the idea of a carbon budget, showing how this concept emerges from a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions. We then discuss the difference between a “CO2-only carbon budget” associated with a given level of CO2-induced warming and an “effective carbon budget” associated with a given level of warming caused by all human emissions. We present estimates for the CO2-only and effective carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C, based on both model simulations and updated observational data. Finally, we discuss the key contributors to uncertainty in carbon budget estimates and suggest some implications of this uncertainty for decision-making. Based on the analysis presented here, we argue that while the CO2-only carbon budget is a robust upper bound on allowable emissions for a given climate target, the size of the effective carbon budget is dependent on the how quickly we are able to mitigate non-CO2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. This suggests that climate mitigation efforts could benefit from being responsive to a changing effective carbon budget over time, as well as to potential new information that could narrow uncertainty associated with the climate response to CO2 emissions.

Conditions influencing the adoption of effective anti-deforestation policies in South America’s commodity frontiers

Abstract Reducing large-scale deforestation in commodity frontiers remains a key challenge for climate change mitigation and the conservation of biodiversity. Public and private anti-deforestation policies have been shown to effectively reduce forest loss, but the conditions under which such policies get adopted are rarely examined. Here we propose a set of conditions that we expect to be associated with the adoption of effective anti-deforestation policies in commodity frontiers. We then examine whether these conditions have influenced policy adoption in South America’s major soy-and-cattle frontiers: the Brazilian Amazon, the Cerrado, the Chaco, the Chiquitano, and Paraguay’s Atlantic Forest. By collating empirical data from diverse sources, including literature review, extensive expert interviews, and analysis of primary and secondary data, we show that the Cerrado, the Chaco, and the Chiquitano differ from the Brazilian Amazon in multiple ways that might have inhibited adoptions of effective anti-deforestation instruments. These conditions include: a higher importance of the agricultural sector within the respective countries, lower carbon stocks and species richness, higher prevalence of private land tenure, and higher baseline compliance with forest reserve regulations on private lands. We also observe that the adoption of the most effective private anti-deforestation instrument, commodity moratoria, may respond to similar conditions as those influencing the adoption of public instruments. Incentivizing public and private actors to adopt effective anti-deforestation policies in the Cerrado, Chaco, and the Chiquitano will likely be more challenging than it has been in the Brazilian Amazon.

Air quality policy and fire management responses addressing smoke from wildland fires in the United States and Australia

Wildland fire emissions degrade air quality and visibility, having adverse economic, health and visibility impacts at large spatial scales globally. Air quality regulations can constrain the goals of landscape resilience and management of fire-dependent ecosystems. Here, we review the air quality regulatory framework in the United States, comparing this framework with that of Australia. In the United States, wildland fire management and air quality policies have evolved independently, yet interact to meet diverse public needs. Australian policy development is more recent and decentralised. We find that (1) for maxiumum effectiveness, smoke and fire regulatory frameworks must keep pace with scientific evidence, environmental and social change, and be accompanied by clear regulatory guidance; (2) episodic, non-stationary qualities of fire, and its role in ecosystems, pose specific challenges to regulators and policy-makers; and (3) the complexity of industry-focused air quality policies often leads to unintended consequences for fire management. More research is needed to create and implement more effective fire and air policies and better prepare social-ecological systems to address the challenges of climate change mitigation. These insights may be helpful for countries initially developing complementary fire and air policies, especially as the role of fire becomes more important geopolitically and globally.

Assessment of the mainshock-aftershock collapse vulnerability of RC structures considering the infills in-plane and out-of-plane behaviour

One major challenge of earthquake risk mitigation is the assessment of existing buildings not designed with modern codes and the development of effective strengthening techniques. Particular attention should be given to reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures with infill masonry (IM) panels, as proved by their poor performance in recent earthquakes. From surveys on damaged and collapsed RC buildings, many buildings suffered severe damage or collapse due to the IM panels presence. It is observed that in-plane (IP) behaviour of IM can prevent the development of out-of-plane (OOP) strength mechanisms by arching effect. By contrast, in most cases the major damages were found in non-structural elements, particularly in clay IM, including diagonal cracking, OOP collapse or detachment of surrounding RC frames (the latter taking place in early earthquake instants) due to absence of or deficient connection to that frames. In a seismically active region, structures are subjected to multiple earthquakes, due to mainshock–aftershock phenomena or other sequences, leaving no time for rehabilitation of the buildings or rescue of the injured people between the events. This research pretends to assess the mainshock-aftershocks effects on an eight storey RC building. For this, different numerical models (considering different IM walls modelling strategies) were subjected to several non-linear dynamic analyses. The structure damage level was evaluated for different intensity levels of the aftershock-mainshock by the comparison between the maximum inter-storey drifts with drift limits suggested by international codes.

China Confronts Climate Change: A Bottom-Up Perspective, by Peter H. Koehn. London: Routledge, 2016. xxii+209 pp. US$47.50 (paper).

Previous articleNext article FreeReviewsChina Confronts Climate Change: A Bottom-Up Perspective, by Peter H. Koehn. London: Routledge, 2016. xxii+209 pp. US$47.50 (paper).Maria Francesch-HuidobroMaria Francesch-HuidobroThe University of Hong Kong Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreThis book is based on Peter H. Koehn’s analysis of his own and published research on climate change governance in China. The book offers general and expert readers alike a broad and comprehensive view of the conceptualizations, origins, critiques, and implementation challenges of climate mitigation in China. The narrative is fluid and, despite a large volume of information, makes for fascinating reading. Each chapter contains didactic boxes of supporting cases and policy initiatives. The bibliography is extensive and up-to-date to 2015. Koehn’s compilation and insightful analysis of the burgeoning theoretical and empirical literature on China’s climate governance is to be commended for its depth and accessibility.Koehn cautiously acknowledges that China is on course to transit to a low-carbon economy. This is not only due to policy commitments at the top national leadership level but also to a sustained quest at subnational levels to implement—often in precarious conditions—policies initiated by both local governments and nongovernmental actors (NGOs, corporations, multilateral agencies, etc.) that collaborate domestically and internationally. Beyond the contributions of organized civil society, Koehn makes a compelling case—in my view the most significant contribution in this book—that carbon-reduction initiatives by an increasingly aware citizenry that seeks an alternative to the “American dream (house, car, yard and throughway economy” (173) ought to be grounded in existing Chinese cultural predispositions (121–22).The introduction and subsequent eight chapters present a logical, robust argument. From presenting China’s position on climate change (chap. 1) to providing a framework that is contextually and conceptually sensitive to explaining climate governance in China (chap. 2), the author moves on to argue that while top-down national commitments are a sine qua non (chap. 3), subnational initiatives and actions framed within the Chinese traditional value system constitutes the best recipe for sustained and successful climate mitigation (chaps. 4 and 5). Chapters 6 and 7 have a highly innovative focus, identifying domestic and transnational collaborations for carbon reduction and the impact these can potentially have. An important aspect is Koehn’s argument about “the local power” (164) and identification of movers and shakers across the Chinese diaspora who can potentially be important catalysts for change to a low-carbon economy and lifestyle, given their interconnectivity and highly mobile access to carbon-reduction policies and practices around the world (chap. 7).Koehn acknowledges that while China is at the vanguard in the national, subnational, nongovernmental, and public mitigation fronts, its ability to make further inroads in climate policy is challenged by its growing population and consumption of natural resources. But he quickly identifies key elements to confront these twin challenges: normative leadership, political capital, and beefed up organizational and financial capital.In summary, the book is, as Koehn affirms, cautiously optimistic about China’s capacity to contribute to the curbing of climate change, and it identifies compelling and innovative actions, such as taking responsibility for consumption, focusing governance capacity at the subnational level, pursuing subnational pathways that not only include low carbon development but also make the connection between reduction in emissions and consumption with improved health, and acknowledging that a return to the “foot and pedal tradition” of old also contributes to the nexus between carbon reduction, air quality, and health. Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by The China Journal Volume 77January 2017 Published on behalf of the Australian Centre on China in the World at the Australian National University Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/689233 For permission to reuse, please contact [email protected]PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Transport adaptation policies in Europe: from incremental actions to long-term visions

Abstract This research describes the current state of adaptation in the transport sector in Europe and explores their potential, lessons learnt and limits. The objective is to establish a typology of current approaches and assess their impact in terms of both, short term feasibility and long-term sustainability. As a result, some follow-up actions are suggested for policy making in terms of promoting better integrated consideration of mitigation and adaptation challenges, developing new technical tools and expertise to forecast potential climate change impacts, and expanding adaptation from the current operational focus to the planning and policy making fields. Data & Methodology (150 words). This research is based on extensive data collection of stakeholders’ views and case studies conducted in 2013 and 2014 in the framework of the European Topic Centre on Climate Change Adaptation (ETC/CCA) of the European Environment Agency (EEA), as summarized in report EEA 8/2014 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/adaptation-of-transport-to-climate). The research makes a systematic assessment of the evidence gathered from the perspective of (1) technical base, (2) implicit causality chains and their relevance, (3) short term expected impacts, (4) integration with long-term policies and priorities. The assessment serves to categorize current actions in accordance with their expected impact, compatibility with a long-term low-carbon paradigm, and capacity to build up consensus among stakeholders (at the planning, infrastructure, operations and use levels). Expected results (100 words): Based on the evidence gathered, it is claimed that there is a risk for incremental adaptation approaches to involuntarily consolidate already-prevailing unsustainable transport practices, so that transition efforts towards low-carbon transport would become more difficult to undertake. A number of innovative adaptive approaches in Europe, based on medium and long-term strategies, which address mitigation and adaptation in an integrated way are described, and ways to mainstream these integrated approaches are discussed.

A risk assessment for the introduction of invasive fish for Kejimkujik National Park and National Historic Site, Canada

Recent research has highlighted the need for invasive species risk assessments that consider multiple factors, such as habitat suitability and life history. With invasive species encroaching on the boundary of Kejimkujik National Park and National Historic Site (Kejimkujik), Canada, there is concern surrounding the potential ecological effects on the Park’s freshwater ecosystems. Herein we present a multifactor risk analysis for the risks of introduction of two invasive species, smallmouth bass and chain pickerel. Methods included computer-based analysis of cost–distance and habitat suitability, and a literature-based review of management techniques. Smallmouth bass were found to have a high risk of establishment and consequent ecological effects in Kejimkujik. Although chain pickerel can also negatively affect aquatic communities, their separation from the Park’s primary watershed and low dispersal ability resulted in lower levels of risk. Four recommendations were developed following a review of management techniques: (1) containment of the source population for smallmouth bass; (2) public education, outreach and communication; (3) monitoring and rapid response upon detection; and (4) collaboration with other parties. Although the present study focused on Kejimkujik, similar challenges for invasive freshwater fish assessment and mitigation exist elsewhere, and our methods may prove illustrative for researchers and managers working under similar conditions.

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Abstract This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).

Highly Sensitive and Selective Method for Detecting Ultratrace Levels of Aqueous Uranyl Ions by Strongly Photoluminescent-Responsive Amine-Modified Cadmium Sulfide Quantum Dots.

Detection of ultratrace levels of aqueous uranyl ions without using sophisticated analytical instrumentation and a tedious sample preparation method is a challenge for environmental monitoring and mitigation. Here we present a novel yet simple analytical method for highly sensitive and specific detection of uranyl ions via photoluminescence quenching of CdS quantum dots. We have demonstrated a new approach for synthesizing highly water-soluble and strong photoluminescence-emitting CdS quantum dots (i.e., CdS-MAA and CdS-MAA-TU) of sizes less than 3 nm. The structural, morphological, and optical properties of both the batches of CdS quantum dots were thoroughly characterized by XRD, high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), zeta potential, UV-visible absorption, and photoluminescence spectroscopy. Compared to the batch of CdS quantum dots prepared by capping with only mercaptoacetic acid (CdS-MAA), the batch prepared by capping with mercaptoacetic acid and thiourea in tandem (CdS-MAA-TU) exhibited higher quantum yield= 16.64 ± 1.02%, and more importantly, CdS-MAA-TU exhibited significantly a higher order of photoluminescence quenching responses when treated with ultratrace concentrations of uranyl ions. Under the optimized conditions, the sensitivity of detecting uranyl ion by CdS-MAA-TU was several folds better (0.316 L/ μg) than that of CdS-MAA (0.0053 (L/μg/), as determined from their respective Stern-Volmer plots. Qualitatively, CdS-MAA-TU probe can be used for visual detection of uranyl ions of concentration greater than 5 μg/L. However, the instrumental method of analysis based on photoluminescence spectroscopy confirmed the feasibility for quantitative analysis of ultratrace concentrations of uranyl ions as implied from a very low limit of detection (LoD = 0.07 μg/L) and limit of quantification (LoQ = and 0.231 μg/L). Systematic studies revealed very high selectivity for uranyl ion detection, though minor interference from Cu(2+), Pb(2+), Hg(2+), CO3(2-), and SO4(2-) was found. The recovery analysis performed by spiking uranyl ions (0.5 μg/L to 10.0 μg/L) in groundwater and river water samples, confirmed the robustness of the as-developed CdS-MAA-TU QDs for detecting ultratrace levels of uranyl ions in real water sample matrix. The very simple and effective strategy reported here should facilitate developing reliable sensors for detecting uranyl ion contamination in drinking water.

Mortality, Morbidity and Health-Seeking Behaviour during the Ebola Epidemic 2014-2015 in Monrovia Results from a Mobile Phone Survey.

Between March 2014 and July 2015 at least 10,500 Ebola cases including more than 4,800 deaths occurred in Liberia, the majority in Monrovia. However, official numbers may have underestimated the size of the outbreak. Closure of health facilities and mistrust in existing structures may have additionally impacted on all-cause morbidity and mortality. To quantify mortality and morbidity and describe health-seeking behaviour in Monrovia, Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) conducted a mobile phone survey from December 2014 to March 2015. We drew a random sample of households in Monrovia and conducted structured mobile phone interviews, covering morbidity, mortality and health-seeking behaviour from 14 May 2014 until the day of the survey. We defined an Ebola-related death as any death meeting the Liberian Ebola case definition. We calculated all-cause and Ebola-specific mortality rates. The sample consisted of 6,813 household members in 905 households. We estimated a crude mortality rate (CMR) of 0.33/10,000 persons/day (95%CI:0.25–0.43) and an Ebola-specific mortality rate of 0.06/10,000 persons/day (95%-CI:0.03–0.11). During the recall period, 17 Ebola cases were reported including those who died. In the 30 days prior to the survey 277 household members were reported sick; malaria accounted for 54% (150/277). Of the sick household members, 43% (122/276) did not visit any health care facility. The mobile phone-based survey was found to be a feasible and acceptable alternative method when data collection in the community is impossible. CMR was estimated well below the emergency threshold of 1/10,000 persons/day. Non-Ebola-related mortality in Monrovia was not higher than previous national estimates of mortality for Liberia. However, excess mortality directly resulting from Ebola did occur in the population. Importantly, the small proportion of sick household members presenting to official health facilities when sick might pose a challenge for future outbreak detection and mitigation. Substantial reported health-seeking behaviour outside of health facilities may also suggest the need for adapted health messaging and improved access to health care.

Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives

Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO2-emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.

The contributions to long-term health-relevant particulate matter at the UK EMEP supersites between 2010 and 2013: Quantifying the mitigation challenge

Human health burdens associated with long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) are substantial. The metrics currently recommended by the World Health Organization for quantification of long-term health-relevant PM are the annual average PM10 and PM2.5 mass concentrations, with no low concentration threshold. However, within an annual average, there is substantial variation in the composition of PM associated with different sources. To inform effective mitigation strategies, therefore, it is necessary to quantify the conditions that contribute to annual average PM10 and PM2.5 (rather than just short-term episodic concentrations). PM10, PM2.5, and speciated water-soluble inorganic, carbonaceous, heavy metal and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon components are concurrently measured at the two UK European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) ‘supersites’ at Harwell (SE England) and Auchencorth Moss (SE Scotland). In this work, statistical analyses of these measurements are integrated with air-mass back trajectory data to characterise the ‘chemical climate’ associated with the long-term health-relevant PM metrics at these sites. Specifically, the contributions from different PM concentrations, months, components and geographic regions are detailed. The analyses at these sites provide policy-relevant conclusions on mitigation of (i) long-term health-relevant PM in the spatial domain for which these sites are representative, and (ii) the contribution of regional background PM to long-term health-relevant PM.At Harwell the mean (±1 sd) 2010–2013 annual average concentrations were PM10=16.4±1.4μgm−3 and PM2.5=11.9±1.1μgm−3 and at Auchencorth PM10=7.4±0.4μgm−3 and PM2.5=4.1±0.2μgm−3. The chemical climate state at each site showed that frequent, moderate hourly PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations (defined as approximately 5–15μgm−3 for PM10 and PM2.5 at Harwell and 5–10μgm−3 for PM10 at Auchencorth) determined the magnitude of annual average PM10 and PM2.5 to a greater extent than the relatively infrequent high, episodic PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations. These moderate PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were derived across the range of chemical components, seasons and air-mass pathways, in contrast to the highest PM concentrations which tended to associate with specific conditions. For example, the largest contribution to moderate PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations – the secondary inorganic aerosol components, specifically NO3− – were accumulated during the arrival of trajectories traversing the spectrum of marine, UK, and continental Europe areas. Mitigation of the long-term health-relevant PM impact in the regions characterised by these two sites requires multilateral action, across species (and hence source sectors), both nationally and internationally; there is no dominant determinant of the long-term PM metrics to target.