Strategic Defense Initiative Research Articles

До розроблення методології побудови систем протиповітряної та протиракетної оборони. Обґрунтування апарата дослідження

Substantiation of the research tools has been performed as a part of methodology development for the air and missile defense system. The problem under consideration is very complex due to the multifactorial nature of the research object, its qualitative variety and manifold structure, incomplete definition of the problem statement. Furthermore, the ability of modern technologies to produce different arms systems, which are capable of carrying out same class tasks, considerably increases the risk of making not the best decisions. Based on this, as well as taking into account the sharp increase in the cost of weaponry, the considered problem is classified as an optimization one that should be solved through the theory of operations research. In this theory, such task is viewed as a mathematical problem, and mathematical simulation is the basic method of research. The main types of mathematical models, their areas of application have been considered as a part of the analysis. The classification of mathematical models has been indicated according to the scale of reproduced operations, purpose, and goal orientation. Quantitative and qualitative correlation of forces has been accepted as the efficiency criterion, which determines a goal orientation of the model. The problems related to this have been shown. In particular, searching for the compromise between simplicity of the mathematical model and its adequacy to the research object is among these problems. Two of the basic approaches to principles of the military operation model construction and its assessment have been considered. The first is implemented through modeling of the combat operations. The second approach is based on the assumption that different armament types can be compared based on their contribution to the outcome of the operation, and on the possibility to assign «a weighting coefficient» named as a combat potential to each of these types. The modern level of problem solving related to this method has been shown. The reasonability of its application in the considered task, including the definition of forces correlation of the opposing parties, has been substantiated. The basic regulations of the construction concept of the required mathematical model and tools for its research have been formulated based on the analysis results: the assigned problem should be solved by analytical methods through the theory of operations research; the analytical model is the most acceptable conception of the analyzed level of the military operation; the synthesis of the model should be based on the idea of a combat potential. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the known approach to the definition of forces correlation, which uses the combat potential method, has a number of essential limitations, including the methodological ones. Therefore, within the bounds of further research, this approach requires the development both in terms of improving the reliability of the single assessment and in terms of giving the system qualities to the synthesized mathematical model. Key words: multifunctional system, mathematical model, military unit, combat potential, correlation of forces, defensive sufficiency.

Методологія вибору проектних параметрів маршових двигунів на твердому паливі. Математичне та програмне забезпечення

Substantiation of the research tools has been performed as a part of methodology development for the air and missile defense system. The problem under consideration is very complex due to the multifactorial nature of the research object, its qualitative variety and manifold structure, incomplete definition of the problem statement. Furthermore, the ability of modern technologies to produce different arms systems, which are capable of carrying out same class tasks, considerably increases the risk of making not the best decisions. Based on this, as well as taking into account the sharp increase in the cost of weaponry, the considered problem is classified as an optimization one that should be solved through the theory of operations research. In this theory, such task is viewed as a mathematical problem, and mathematical simulation is the basic method of research. The main types of mathematical models, their areas of application have been considered as a part of the analysis. The classification of mathematical models has been indicated according to the scale of reproduced operations, purpose, and goal orientation. Quantitative and qualitative correlation of forces has been accepted as the efficiency criterion, which determines a goal orientation of the model. The problems related to this have been shown. In particular, searching for the compromise between simplicity of the mathematical model and its adequacy to the research object is among these problems. Two of the basic approaches to principles of the military operation model construction and its assessment have been considered. The first is implemented through modeling of the combat operations. The second approach is based on the assumption that different armament types can be compared based on their contribution to the outcome of the operation, and on the possibility to assign «a weighting coefficient» named as a combat potential to each of these types. The modern level of problem solving related to this method has been shown. The reasonability of its application in the considered task, including the definition of forces correlation of the opposing parties, has been substantiated. The basic regulations of the construction concept of the required mathematical model and tools for its research have been formulated based on the analysis results: the assigned problem should be solved by analytical methods through the theory of operations research; the analytical model is the most acceptable conception of the analyzed level of the military operation; the synthesis of the model should be based on the idea of a combat potential. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the known approach to the definition of forces correlation, which uses the combat potential method, has a number of essential limitations, including the methodological ones. Therefore, within the bounds of further research, this approach requires the development both in terms of improving the reliability of the single assessment and in terms of giving the system qualities to the synthesized mathematical model. Key words: multifunctional system, mathematical model, military unit, combat potential, correlation of forces, defensive sufficiency.

Mobilizing patriotic consumers: China’s new strategy of economic coercion

ABSTRACT This article develops the concept of ‘patriotic consumer mobilization’ to explain how China uses informal boycotts as economic coercion. Patriotic consumer mobilization employs citizens as the unit of action, facilitating manipulability, uncertainty, and plausible deniability. It manages public sentiment for domestic legitimacy and foreign policy goals. Citizens are mobilized via propaganda that underscores national humiliation, frames boycotts as grassroots patriotism, and signals resolve to foreign countries. After outlining conditions for use and a case comparison with Taiwan, we draw on Chinese-language sources to examine Beijing’s coercion of South Korea over a missile defense system.

Development Status and Trend of Stealth Technology of Tactical Missiles

In modern warfare, precision guided munitions have become one of the major equipment to attack and hit the enemy’s crucial value targets. In addition, they are the critical targets of the missile defense and anti-aircraft interceptor system of varying countries during interception and destruction, and the world has increased investment in missile defense. Therefore, the penetration and countermeasures capacities of missiles holds the key to the victory, and the stealth technology of tactical missiles provides a vital orientation for the future advancement of weapons and equipment technology. Based on the current military requirements, this paper summarizes the application of stealth technology in varying tactical missiles and analyzes the development trend of such technology in the future, which is expected to have great implications for further research and application of both stealth and anti-stealth technology.

Trajectory prediction in pipeline form for intercepting hypersonic gliding vehicles based on LSTM

The interception problem of Hypersonic Gliding Vehicles (HGVs) has been an important aspect of missile defense systems. In order to provide interceptors with accurate information of target trajectory, a model based on an improved Long Short-Time Memory (LSTM) network for trajectory prediction pipeline is proposed for the interception of a skip gliding hypersonic target. Firstly, for trajectory prediction required by intercepting guidance laws, the altitude, velocity and velocity direction of the target are formulated in the form of analytic functions, consisting of linear decay terms and amplitude decay sinusoidal terms. Then, the dynamic characteristics of the model parameters are analyzed, and the target trajectory prediction pipeline is proposed with the prediction error considered. Finally, an improved LSTM network is designed to estimate parameters in a dynamically-updated manner, and estimation results are used for the calculation of the final trajectory prediction pipeline. The proposed prediction algorithm provides information on the velocity vector for midcourse guidance with the effect of prediction errors on interception taken into account. Simulation is conducted and the results show the high accuracy of the algorithm in HGVs’ trajectory prediction which is conducive to increasing the interception success rate.

A Reconfigurable Integration Test and Simulation Bed for Engagement Control Using Virtualization

Modeling and Simulation(M&S) technology has been widely used to solve constraints such as time, space, safety, and cost when we implement the same development and test environments as real warfare environments to develop, test, and evaluate weapon systems for the last several decades. The integration and test environments employed for development and test & evaluation are required to provide Live Virtual Construction(LVC) simulation environments for carrying out requirement analysis, design, integration, test and verification. Additionally, they are needed to provide computing environments which are possible to reconfigure computing resources and software components easily according to test configuration changes, and to run legacy software components independently on specific hardware and software environments. In this paper, an Integration Test and Simulation for Engagement Control(ITSEC) bed using a bare-metal virtualization mechanism is proposed to meet the above test and simulation requirements, and it is applied and implemented for an air missile defense system. The engagement simulation experiment results conducted on air and missile defense environments demonstrate that the proposed bed is a sufficiently cost-effective and feasible solution to reconfigure and expand application software and computing resources in accordance with various integration and test environments.

Kurt Gottfried

Kurt Gottfried

Противоракетная оборона США: от защиты национальной территории к обороне НАТО

The 1972 ABM Treaty between the USSR and the USA allowed for the deployment of a limited strategic missile defense system, but established a strict ban on the deployment of anti-missile systems outside their national territory. The agreement was the first turn in the U.S. policy in this area, determining the direction and content of missile defense development programs for many years to come. Once every ten years, the United States revised its policy, for instance, R. Reagan’s intention in 1983 to build a large-scale space-based missile defense system was seen as an attempt to move away from the concept of mutual nuclear deterrence, enshrined in the ABM Treaty. However, only after its withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2002, the United States set a course for the deployment of a missile defense system in Europe, as stated, to protect the region from nuclear missile threats from “rogue states”. At the present stage, the growing degradation of relations between Russia and Western countries, especially against the backdrop of hostilities in Ukraine, has led NATO states to put forward new approaches to the integration of missile defense and air defense systems, providing for the functional interface of information management systems and strike components for the successful interception of different classes of targets. The experience of providing Ukraine with integrated defense and its functioning on the basis of modern Western air defense systems will allow the U.S. / NATO to evaluate the effectiveness of the chosen approach and apply the knowledge gained to improve Europe’s “anti-missile umbrella”. The article proposes the author’s periodization of American policy in the field of missile defense, as well as considers each of the identified stages with special emphasis on the last one, which is directly related to the current political situation.

Spatial management of air and missile defence operations

This paper relates to the accepted presentation presented at the international Air and Missile Defence Technology Conference, held on November 16–17, 2022, in London, the UK, (day two), reflecting the contents of the presentation slides. It describes applications of the patented and internationally tested Spatial Grasp Technology (SGT) and its Spatial Grasp Language (SGL) for integrated air and missile defense (IAMD). Based on holistic space navigation and processing by recursive mobile code self-spreading in distributed words, SGT differs radically from the traditional management of large systems since it consists of parts exchanging messages. The dynamic network of SGL interpreters can be arbitrarily large and cover terrestrial and celestial environments as powerful spatial engines. The paper contains an example of tracking and destruction of multiple cruise missiles by self-evolving spatial intelligence in SGL using networks of radar stations. It also briefs the growing multiple satellite constellation in low Earth orbits (LEO) for potential IAMD applications. Starting from the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) of the past and then briefing the latest project of the Space Development Agency, the paper shows SGL solutions for discovery, tracking, and destroying ballistic missiles and hypersonic gliders with the use of collectively behaving constellations of LEO satellites. It also shows how to organize higher levels of supervision of groups of mobile chasers fighting multiple targets (potentially both missiles and drones), by providing global awareness and even consciousness in SGL which can drastically improve their performance. The latest version of SGT can be implemented on any platform and put into operation in a short time, similar to its previous versions in different countries.

About the New Concept of National Security of Japan

The article analyzes new moments in Japan's national security policy introduced by the documents which have been adopted by the Japanese cabinet in December 2022 — National Security Strategy, National Defense Program Guidelines and Medium Term Defense Program. The main attention is paid to the depiction of the external security environment, and above all to the assessment of China and Russia as the countries of greatest concern from the point of view of security policy. Noting that the documents do not use the term "threat" in China's assessment, the author concludes that Japan takes a more cautious position than the United States, trying not to be drawn into a confrontation between superpowers. As for Russia, the greatest alarmism is expressed not in relation to its policy as such, but in relation to its potential blocking with China on an anti—Japanese basis — the main "nightmare" for Tokyo. The article considers the issue of the "counter-offensive" missile potential provided for by the new strategy, which would allow Japan to strike at the enemy from a remote distance in the event of a direct threat to its security. The acquisition of such a potential has become particularly relevant for Japan in connection with the development of missile technologies of neighboring "hostile" countries — the DPRK and the PRC, as well as the general progress of missile weapons in the world, including the hypersonic ones. As part of the new approach, it is planned to create an integrated air and missile defense system that combines the capabilities of intercepting enemy missiles and counterattacking on strategic and military enemy targets. An important change in the security policy will also be the acute increase in defense spending declared by the documents under review. The biggest problem lies in the unresolved issue of the financial sources of the defense budget, which must ensure the implementation of the adopted strategy.

Трансформация политики безопасности Государства Израиль: новые тренды на фоне традиционных приоритетов

Importance. The article discusses the development of the national security course of the State of Israel in the period 2021–2023. This issue is of particular interest due to the existence of two trends in the security sector: its transformation on the one hand and continuity on the other. Research methods. The study is based on the defense of historicism, objectivity and systemic ownership. Along with general scientific methods, such as analysis and comparison, historical-comparative, retrospective, synchronous methods, as well as the method of critical geopolitics, are used. Result and Discussion. It is noted that during the tenures of Prime Ministers N. Bennett and J. Lapid, there is a further development of “the Iron Dome” missile defense system and the laser weapons’ development to strengthen this system. Several operations are carried out, the purpose of which is to prevent the technical and offensive development of the opponents of the State of Israel in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. In military operations, the emphasis is on the remote destruction of military installations in the depths of Palestinian territory and the prevention of militant access to Israel territory through underground tunnels, which in fact is a new trend. With the return of B. Netanyahu to the post of Prime Minister of the country in the end of 2022, there is a commitment to this military strategy, as evidenced by the continuation of Operation Breakwater. At the same time, B. Netanyahu is pursuing a policy of strengthening the strategic advantage of the State of Israel in the direction of the Gaza Strip, where Israel’s advantages are gradually leveled. Conclusion. It is noted that in the period 2021–2022 the military strategy of the state developed largely in line with and on the basis of the groundwork that is created by B. Netanyahu during his previous term as prime minister. At the same time, the old security doctrine is changed in order to prevent the technological development of the enemy and maintain the strategic advantage of the State of Israel. A general conclusion is made about the effectiveness of the adopted strategy and its long-term nature.

Сhina and the states of the Korean peninsula in 2022 – before and after Yoon Seok Yeol

China’s relations with the DPRK have been steadily developing since 2018: at every opportunity, PRC & DPRK emphasize the unbreakable friendship based on an alliance of socialist parties. North Korean diplomats and the media constantly speak out in support of Beijing’s course, criticizing the US’ accusations, and China calls for taking into account the North Korean position on the nuclear issue. Conducting a nuclear test may cool down the relations between the two countries, but Beijing’s specific reaction will depend on the foreign policy situation and will not necessarily be reduced to condemnation, similar to the situation in 2017. Relations between China and the Republic of Korea have not yet undergone any significant changes, despite the change of power in Seoul. China is the country’s leading economic partner, but the United States remains the main security ally and ideological sovereign, which forces the Republic of Korea to maneuver. President Yoon Suk-yeol, representing the conservatives, despite his pro-American rhetoric, is trying to continue the policy of “balancing” and avoid spoiling relations with Beijing, except for the separation on the issue of so-called “three NO’s” (no additional deployment of THAAD in South Korea beyond the existing one, no participation in the US regional missile defense system and no participation in a trilateral military alliance with the US and Japan). However, President Yoon is under strong political pressure, both internal & external, and against the backdrop of increased confrontation between the United States and China, his reversal from China seems quite inevitable in the medium term.

U.S. missile defense policy in the context of great power competition

American missile defense in the late 1990s began to develop as a protection against the DPRK and Iran. Washington's official approach has evolved over twenty years. Currently, certain segments of the U.S. missile defense policy are officially linked with the confrontation against Russia and China. Even if the Russian or Chinese strategic nuclear forces, due to their size, will never be the main target for U.S. missile defense, the air components of the Chinese and Russian nuclear triads are already in the ‘crosshairs’ of U.S. missile defense. The overall strategy for the use of integrated air and missile defense is evolving. There are a number of features of the qualitative and quantitative development of regional missile defense systems to protect U.S. troops and their allies. The space component of missile defense, even without the creation of orbital missile defenses, is developing in a direction that can threaten strategic stability. The confrontation with North Korea and Iran because of the size of their missile arsenals makes it necessary to integrate offensive and defensive systems with each other. But it is precisely the confrontation with the Russia and China that makes the U.S. to unite offensive missiles, missile defense, air defense, and, in the long term, measures to protect their space assets through architecture of sensors of various types and battle management systems.

핵의 관점에서 본 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁

When we approach Russia-Ukraine War with the perspective of nuclear competition, relentless competition, driven by typical security dilemma, to achieve nuclear superiority is found to be strongly implicated before, during, and after the war. After the post-Cold War order emerged, the U.S. attempted to gain nuclear superiority over Russia by establishing theater missile defense system across Europe. Threat perception coming from the fear of its nuclear deterrence being undermined by America’s damage limitation strategy forced Russia to modernize its nuclear forces and extend the scope of nuclear deterrence to include the possible use of nuclear weapons even against conventional attacks. While Putin raising the prospect of using nuclear weapons invaded Ukraine, the U.S. response seemed to be constrained by the fear of nuclear escalation. Russia-Ukraine War has found 1994 Budapest Memorandum to be nothing more than empty statements and has awakened the world to the reality that nuclear threats are actively being used as a tool of intimation and escalation management. As such, Russia-Ukraine War has ushered us into “New Nuclear World” characterized by (1) the nuclear paradigm shift from non-proliferation to nuclear competition, (2) retreat of nuclear arms control regime, (3) and tripolar (U.S., Russia, and China) nuclear dynamics.

기동모델이 변침기동 탄도탄 추적에 미치는 영향에 대한 고찰

This paper addresses the maneuvering ballistic target tracking problem for advanced missile defense systems. Based on the fact that the performance degradation of the existing tracking filters is mainly caused by the uncertainties in motion model of a ballistic target, an explicit maneuver model is introduced by utilizing a prior knowledge on the lift-induced drag characteristics. This model exploits the constraints among the ballistic coefficients, which enables us to design a tracking filter with more reliable target tracking performance in practice. Moreover, since the mismatch between our explicit ballistic target maneuver model and the real target motion leads to the bias of the residual sequence of the tracking filter, this property can also be used for target classification or recognition. Through simulation using a typical ballistic target tracking scenario, it is demonstrated that the proposed filter provides superior and reliable maneuvering ballistic target tracking performance.

Challenges for the Conventional Deterrence of Pakistan in the Post 2019 Security Situations: Options and Choices

The study aims at discussing the changing dynamics of conventional deterrence in South Asia especially after the Pulwama-Balakot incident of 2019. The study is evaluated through Descriptive, Exploratory and Predictive data analysis approach. For elaborating different aspects of the study, both primary and secondary data was used. The study conducted in-depth interviews of the experts on the strategic and nuclear environment of the South Asian region. The study is divided in to three parts. In first part of the study, India-Pakistan relations since their independence in 1947 have been discussed. It was followed by discussing how Indian military strategic thinking against Pakistan has been changed from being defensive in Sunderji Doctrine (SD) of 1987 to offensive in the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) of 2004 and then to the Land Warfare Doctrine (LWD) of 2018. The study then continues on discussing how India has crossed the international border line and conducted so-called surgical strikes inside Pakistani territory after a militant attack on the Indian paramilitary troops in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IoK) in 2019 and how Pakistan responded to the Indian aggression with a military operation codenamed “Operation Swift Retort”. The second part of the study is related to the Indian acquisition of modern sophisticated weaponry from the great powers like US, Israel, Russia etc. and the possible impacts of these weapons systems on the strategic stability of Pakistan. How the weapon systems like Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system, Rafale fighter jets, Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM), Nuclear Submarine, P8-I Antisubmarine aircraft, Apache attack helicopter, Spy satellites and the armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) will pose threats to Pakistan, was main theme of the second part of the study. The possibility of any future war between India and Pakistan was also discussed in this section. Third section of the study was related to the possible options for Pakistan to counter the growing Indian conventional superiority. It was discussed that Pakistan should improve its long-range air defense system, improve the speed, lethality and range of its missiles, acquire or develop nuclear submarine and fifth generation aircrafts, improve Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities along with the acquisition of attack helicopters and enhancing the endurance and range of armed UAVs to counter any future Indian aggression. Overall the Indian military modernization, the acquisition and procurement of modern sophisticated weaponry was discussed in the study. How negatively it will impact Pakistan and what options and choices are available with Pakistan to counter it, was the basic theme of the study. It was also thoroughly examined that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are not for wars, but it’s the guarantor of peace in South Asia. It was also examined that Pakistan will never allow any aggression to disturb its strategic stability and will never hesitate to ensure its strategic stability and the basic sovereignty as a state at any cost, even by using its nuclear weapons as a last resort in case of failure of its conventional weapons.

THE DEPLOYMENT OF THE U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM IN POLAND (2001-2008): NEGOTIATION STAGE

Poland has traditionally been considered one of the European states most supportive of U.S. foreign policy, including the security policy. Therefore, it seemed natural to establish a long-term partnership with the United States in the development of missile defense capabilities on the continent. This article examines U.S.-Polish relations in the politico-military sphere, specifically the problem of the deployment of the U.S. missile defense system on the territory of the Republic of Poland.

A Diplomatic Meeting: Reagan, Thatcher, and the Art of Summitry by James Cooper

<i>A Diplomatic Meeting: Reagan, Thatcher, and the Art of Summitry</i> by James Cooper

Is Nuclear Anarchy Sustainable? A Temporal Approach

The article develops a novel temporal approach to the sustainability of nuclear anarchy. The extant literature offers two opposite perspectives on the topic: some scholars argue that nuclear anarchy is unsustainable, since it will inevitably either lead to a catastrophic nuclear war or evolve into a hierarchical world order. Their opponents doubt the inevitability of nuclear war in a system of sovereign states and/or its catastrophic nature. However, the debate, as it stands now, ignores the fact that both technology and social structures are embedded in – and mediated by – cultures and worldviews. In particular, both nuclear weapons and interstate anarchy are embedded in specific temporalities.Taking this fact into account, we identify and compare perceptions of time that are interrelated with nuclear weapons, on one hand, and international anarchy, on the other. The article reveals a temporal contradiction of nuclear anarchy: while nuclear weapons imply a potential finitude of humanity, the system of sovereign states is intrinsically connected with an indefinite temporality. We derive two theoretical implications form the concept of temporal contradiction. First, a realization of finite temporality should subvert the legitimacy of an anarchic world order and encourage limitations on national sovereignty. Second, international anarchy should ‘eternalize’ nuclear weapons, i.e., reinterpret them as compatible with the eternity of human civilization. Familiar events of nuclear history including early attempts to establish international control of nuclear energy, the Strategic Defense Initiative, and the evolution of the anti-nuclear movement are interpreted here as empirical evidence in favor of the theoretical implications described above.Thus, the concept of temporal contradiction provides another argument in favor of the idea that nuclear anarchy is unsustainable in the long run, since the proliferation of the finite temporality leads to international hierarchy, whereas persistent indefinite temporality masks the severity of the nuclear threat, making nuclear war more conceivable and probable.

Ballistic Target Recognition Based on 4-D Point Cloud Using Randomized Stepped Frequency Radar

Ballistic target recognition (BTR) is critical to the ballistic missile defense system. The challenge of this task is to distinguish warheads from numerous unknown confusing targets within a short observing time. The micromotion feature is proved to be effective for this task. However, traditional methods need a long observing time to acquire enough information for the recognition because of using low-dimensional features. In addition, these model-driven methods cannot handle irregular ballistic targets, such as debris. In this article, we propose a BTR scheme, which characterizes the micromotion features with a higher dimensional representation, i.e., the time–range–velocity–power 4-D point cloud, using the randomized stepped frequency radar. The higher dimensional information contained in the 4-D point cloud can reduce the required observing time. Besides, this scheme combines the model-driven method with a data-driven deep neural network to meet the challenge of model mismatch caused by irregular targets. As a result, the proposed BTR scheme is time efficient and robust, which has been proved on an electromagnetic simulation dataset.