Сhina and the states of the Korean peninsula in 2022 – before and after Yoon Seok Yeol

Abstract

China’s relations with the DPRK have been steadily developing since 2018: at every opportunity, PRC & DPRK emphasize the unbreakable friendship based on an alliance of socialist parties. North Korean diplomats and the media constantly speak out in support of Beijing’s course, criticizing the US’ accusations, and China calls for taking into account the North Korean position on the nuclear issue. Conducting a nuclear test may cool down the relations between the two countries, but Beijing’s specific reaction will depend on the foreign policy situation and will not necessarily be reduced to condemnation, similar to the situation in 2017. Relations between China and the Republic of Korea have not yet undergone any significant changes, despite the change of power in Seoul. China is the country’s leading economic partner, but the United States remains the main security ally and ideological sovereign, which forces the Republic of Korea to maneuver. President Yoon Suk-yeol, representing the conservatives, despite his pro-American rhetoric, is trying to continue the policy of “balancing” and avoid spoiling relations with Beijing, except for the separation on the issue of so-called “three NO’s” (no additional deployment of THAAD in South Korea beyond the existing one, no participation in the US regional missile defense system and no participation in a trilateral military alliance with the US and Japan). However, President Yoon is under strong political pressure, both internal & external, and against the backdrop of increased confrontation between the United States and China, his reversal from China seems quite inevitable in the medium term.