Misleading Effects Research Articles

Corporate financial communication and the internet: manipulating investor audiences?

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of how the internet interacts with businesses and markets. The authors aims to focus on the internet press releases of annual results to illustrate how corporate communication is used and managed strategically online.Design/methodology/approachThe authors describe the increasing importance of the internet for communicating firms' performance to investors, financial media and the stock market, then identify and discuss a number of techniques that might be used to potentially manipulate the online presentation of financial results. Thus the authors conducted a content analysis of the internet press releases in two consecutive years (2008 and 2009) by a wide range of companies listed in the IBEX 35 share index.FindingsThis paper provides in‐depth insights into content analysis techniques by providing examples of how potentially misleading disclosure practices are included in press releases. Moreover the paper investigates the use of seven potentially misleading disclosure practices appearing in press releases that optimise the way in which company results are presented.Practical implicationsRegulators may consider the normalisation of the content of internet press releases to avoid or reduce opportunistic disclosure practices. Moreover, investors should be aware of the use of these practices to reduce the misleading effect when processing corporate information.Originality/valueThis pioneering study analyses and provides evidence of potentially misleading internet‐based disclosure strategies. Furthermore the paper proposes a set of measures for corporate information presentation.

Comparative Study of Methane Activation Process by Different Plasma Sources

In this paper, we compare the characteristics of methane activation by diverse plasma sources. The test conditions of reactant flow rate and composition are fixed for each plasma source to eliminate any possible misleading effects from varying test conditions. Among the diverse characteristics of each plasma source, we focus on the electron energy and degree of thermal activation in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of methane decomposition. The reaction is evaluated based on the selectivity of specific products, including H2, C2H6, and C2H2. Among the tested plasma sources, those that provide a somewhat thermal environment have a rather high degree of warmness, resulting in higher methane conversion and lower operational costs. As the non-thermal characteristics of the plasma sources become stronger, the selectivity of C2H6 increases. This reflects C2H6 formation from the direct collision of CH4 with high-energy electrons. On the other hand, as the degree of warmness increases, the selectivity of H2 and C2H2 increase. The results give an insight into possible tools for process control or selectivity control by varying the degree of warmness in the plasma source. The process optimization and cost reduction of methane activation should be based on this concept of selectivity control.

Individual participant data meta-analyses should not ignore clustering

ObjectivesIndividual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses often analyze their IPD as if coming from a single study. We compare this approach with analyses that rather account for clustering of patients within studies. Study Design and SettingComparison of effect estimates from logistic regression models in real and simulated examples. ResultsThe estimated prognostic effect of age in patients with traumatic brain injury is similar, regardless of whether clustering is accounted for. However, a family history of thrombophilia is found to be a diagnostic marker of deep vein thrombosis [odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.70; P = 0.05] when clustering is accounted for but not when it is ignored (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% CI: 0.83, 1.37; P = 0.64). Similarly, the treatment effect of nicotine gum on smoking cessation is severely attenuated when clustering is ignored (odds ratio, 1.40; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.92) rather than accounted for (odds ratio, 1.80; 95% CI: 1.29, 2.52). Simulations show models accounting for clustering perform consistently well, but downwardly biased effect estimates and low coverage can occur when ignoring clustering. ConclusionResearchers must routinely account for clustering in IPD meta-analyses; otherwise, misleading effect estimates and conclusions may arise.

Abstract 3135: In vitro and in vivo synthetic lethal screens to identify novel targets in the context of PTEN deficiency.

Abstract Functional genomic screens have been employed by many groups to identify novel targets for cancer therapeutics. However, translation of these data sets into new drug discovery programs has proved challenging, in part due to difficulties in obtaining strong on-target knockdown, coupled with misleading off-target effects. Most commercially available pooled shRNA screening libraries provide 5-6 shRNAs per gene, with little knowledge of knock-down efficiency. In an effort to overcome these issues, we designed a custom shRNA library targeting 580 human genes, including key nodes in signal transduction pathways and genes of interest for oncology drug development. This pathway-centric design allows us to determine critical pathways for cancer cell growth in addition to individual gene phenotypes. For each gene, we have total of 11 shRNAs, a subset of which have been previously shown high efficiency knock-down. In particular, we emphasized genes where tool or lead compounds were available for rapid follow-up. Both in size and scope, this library was designed to quickly identify important signaling pathways that are essential on their own or when perturbed in the presence of small molecule drugs in our pipeline. With this focused library, we performed functional genomic shRNA screens in PTEN mutant or null lines across cancer types in vitro, including four cell lines that are PTEN deficient (UACC62, MDA-MB-468, U87-MG and PC3), and one cell line, (HCT-116) that is PTEN wild type. Meanwhile, we performed in vivo screens with PC3 cells. To identify hits from our screens, we used an internally developed algorithm, c-FOLD, to calculate p-value and fold changes for each shRNA. As confirmation that our library and methods can identify essential genes in a context specific manner, we observe BRAF as the top essential gene hit in the cell line which contains an activated BRAF allele, UACC62, but not in other lines tested. We then examined the concordance of hits in our in vitro and in vivo experiments with PC3 cells. In general, individual shRNAs were highly correlated between in vitro and in vivo assays, but a subset is specific to one setting, and may present particularly interesting targets. To discover synthetic lethal partners to PTEN deficiency, we required that a gene is essential in all four PTEN deficient lines in vitro, as well as in PC3 in vivo, but not essential in HCT-116. Among the top hits are multiple shRNAs against ENTPD5, an ER enzyme hydrolyzing UDP to UMP. In addition, using our pathway approach, we identified components in JNK pathways as synthetic lethal partners to PTEN deficiency. The results obtained from these studies established a strong platform for in vivo and in vitro identification of novel targets and novel combination partners. These approaches can also be integrated with other Omics data, such as mutation and expression, to ultimately find promising targets to develop novel cancer therapeutics. Citation Format: Jing-xin Zhang, Joshua Murtie, Oleg Iartchouk, Hui Cao, Gary Shapiro, Zhifang Li, Hongyun Wang, Zhihu Ding, Yu-an Zhang, Madelyn Light, Dietmar Hoffman, May Cindhuchao, Saurin Jani, Richard Newcombe, Eva Bric-Furlong, Bin Wu, Angela Virone-Oddos, Stephan Reiling, Joachim Theihaber, Christoph Lengauer, Jack Pollard, James Watters, Serena Silver, Venkat Reddy. In vitro and in vivo synthetic lethal screens to identify novel targets in the context of PTEN deficiency. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 104th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2013 Apr 6-10; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2013;73(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 3135. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2013-3135

Do small schools improve performance in large, urban districts? Causal evidence from New York City

We evaluate the effectiveness of small high school reform in the country’s largest school district, New York City. Using a rich administrative dataset for multiple cohorts of students and distance between student residence and school to instrument for endogenous school selection, we find substantial heterogeneity in school effects: newly created small schools have positive effects on graduation and some other education outcomes while older small schools do not. Importantly, we show that ignoring this source of treatment effect heterogeneity by assuming a common small school effect yields a misleading zero effect of small school attendance.

Monetary Policy Statements, Treasury Yields, and Private Yields: Before and After the Zero Lower Bound

Monetary policy actions since 2008 have influenced long-term interest rates through forward guidance and quantitative easing - both "unconventional" strategies. We examine whether the effect of such actions on Treasury yields have passed through to private yields to a degree comparable to experience before 2008. In order to perform this examination, we propose a strategy to identify the comovement between Treasury yields and private yields induced by monetary policy when an observable representing policy changes, such as changes in the interbank rate, is not available, or when other systematic factors may be important. Our strategy implies that least squares regressions, even within an event window, can be misleading, and our empirical results find evidence for such misleading effects. Implementation of our instrumental variables strategy suggests that the movements in Treasury yields induced by monetary policy statements have passed through to private yields, but to a smaller degree t

Evaluating phylogenetic informativeness as a predictor of phylogenetic signal for metazoan, fungal, and mammalian phylogenomic data sets.

Phylogenetic research is often stymied by selection of a marker that leads to poor phylogenetic resolution despite considerable cost and effort. Profiles of phylogenetic informativeness provide a quantitative measure for prioritizing gene sampling to resolve branching order in a particular epoch. To evaluate the utility of these profiles, we analyzed phylogenomic data sets from metazoans, fungi, and mammals, thus encompassing diverse time scales and taxonomic groups. We also evaluated the utility of profiles created based on simulated data sets. We found that genes selected via their informativeness dramatically outperformed haphazard sampling of markers. Furthermore, our analyses demonstrate that the original phylogenetic informativeness method can be extended to trees with more than four taxa. Thus, although the method currently predicts phylogenetic signal without specifically accounting for the misleading effects of stochastic noise, it is robust to the effects of homoplasy. The phylogenetic informativeness rankings obtained will allow other researchers to select advantageous genes for future studies within these clades, maximizing return on effort and investment. Genes identified might also yield efficient experimental designs for phylogenetic inference for many sister clades and outgroup taxa that are closely related to the diverse groups of organisms analyzed.

Pattern recognition after image processing of low-contrast images, the case of the Shroud of Turin

We discuss the potentially misleading effect of software techniques for elaborating low-contrast images. In particular, we present the example of the stains embedded into one of the most studied archeological objects in history, the Shroud of Turin. We show for the first time that image processing of both old and recent photographs of the Shroud may lead some researchers to perceive inscriptions and patterns that do not actually exist, confirming that there is a narrow boundary between image enhancement and manipulation.

The impact of red noise in radial velocity planet searches: only three planets orbiting GJ 581?

We perform a detailed analysis of the latest HARPS and Keck radial velocity data for the planet-hosting red dwarf GJ581, which attracted a lot of attention in recent time. We show that these data contain important correlated noise component ("red noise") with the correlation timescale of the order of 10 days. This red noise imposes a lot of misleading effects while we work in the traditional white-noise model. To eliminate these misleading effects, we propose a maximum-likelihood algorithm equipped by an extended model of the noise structure. We treat the red noise as a Gaussian random process with exponentially decaying correlation function. Using this method we prove that: (i) planets b and c do exist in this system, since they can be independently detected in the HARPS and Keck data, and regardless of the assumed noise models; (ii) planet e can also be confirmed independently by the both datasets, although to reveal it in the Keck data it is mandatory to take the red noise into account; (iii) the recently announced putative planets f and g are likely just illusions of the red noise; (iv) the reality of the planet candidate GJ581 d is questionable, because it cannot be detected from the Keck data, and its statistical significance in the HARPS data (as well as in the combined dataset) drops to a marginal level of $\sim 2\sigma$, when the red noise is taken into account. Therefore, the current data for GJ581 really support existence of no more than four (or maybe even only three) orbiting exoplanets. The planet candidate GJ581 d requests serious observational verification.

Influence de la variabilité de la pression artérielle en consultation sur le diagnostic du contrôle tensionnel chez des hypertendus traités

ObjectiveTo evaluate the variability in blood pressure observed during office visit in treated hypertensive patients and its consequences on the diagnosis of controlled hypertension. MethodThe medical records of 144 subjects seen consecutively in a hypertension excellence center were extracted from a computerized medical database including hypertension subjects treated and followed-up for at least one year. BP measured with an automatic device (four consecutives measurements at 2min intervals) where compared to BP values of home BP performed in the previous week's visit. Thresholds were 140/90mmHg for office BP and 135/85mmHg for HBP. ResultsThe population has the following characteristics: age 62 years with 26% over 70 years, treated with a monotherapy (33%), bitherapy (35%), triple therapy (17%), quadri-therapy or more (8%). A white coat effect SBP above 20mmHg was noted in 32% of patients when BP at 2min is taken and in 2% when BP at 8min is taken (P<0.01). After 8min, a masked effect is noted in 16% for SBP above 20mmHg and in 44% for DBP above 10mmHg. White coat hypertension or masked hypertension was noted in 40% or 16% respectively (BP 2min) and in 5% or 29% (BP 8min) in treated hypertensive. ConclusionIn treated hypertensive, office BP measured by an automatic device shows significant variability. When the BP is taken with an automatic device, measures taken after 8minutes of rest avoid the misleading effects of white coat effect, but the masked hypertension is present in nearly one third of the subjects. The use of AMT for monitoring hypertensive patients is the best way to monitor treatment efficacy.

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Do Small Schools Improve Performance in Large, Urban Districts? Causal Evidence from New York City

We evaluate the effectiveness of small high school reform in the country’s largest school district, New York City. Using a rich administrative dataset for multiple cohorts of students, we estimate a model of school outcomes using instrumental variables with multiple types of endogenous school interventions. Using student residence to instrument for endogenous school selection, we find substantial heterogeneity in school effects as newly created small schools have positive effects on education outcomes while older small schools do not. Importantly, we show that ignoring this source of treatment effect heterogeneity yields a misleading zero effect of small school attendance.

Mistaking the recent past for the present: False seeing by older adults.

Results of three experiments revealed that older, as compared to young, adults are more reliant on context when "seeing" a briefly flashed word that was preceded by a prime. In a congruent condition, the prime was the same word as flashed (e.g., DIRT dirt) whereas in an incongruent condition, the prime differed in a single letter from the word that was flashed (DART dirt). Following their attempt to identify the flashed word, participants were asked to report whether they had "seen" the flashed word or, instead, had responded on some other basis (knowing or guessing). Older adults showed dramatically higher false seeing by reporting the prime on incongruent trials and claiming to have seen it flashed. This was true even though a titration procedure was used to equate the performance of young and older adults on baseline trials which did not provide a biasing context. Results of Experiment 3 related age differences in false seeing to willingness to respond when given the option to withhold responses. Convergence of results with those showing higher false memory and false hearing are interpreted as evidence that older adults are less able to avoid misleading effects of context. That lessened ability may be associated with decline in frontal lobe functioning.

Pattern and timing of diversification of Cetartiodactyla (Mammalia, Laurasiatheria), as revealed by a comprehensive analysis of mitochondrial genomes

The order Cetartiodactyla includes cetaceans (whales, dolphins and porpoises) that are found in all oceans and seas, as well as in some rivers, and artiodactyls (ruminants, pigs, peccaries, hippos, camels and llamas) that are present on all continents, except Antarctica and until recent invasions, Australia. There are currently 332 recognized cetartiodactyl species, which are classified into 132 genera and 22 families. Most phylogenetic studies have focused on deep relationships, and no comprehensive time-calibrated tree for the group has been published yet. In this study, 128 new complete mitochondrial genomes of Cetartiodactyla were sequenced and aligned with those extracted from nucleotide databases. Our alignment includes 14,902 unambiguously aligned nucleotide characters for 210 taxa, representing 183 species, 107 genera, and all cetartiodactyl families. Our mtDNA data produced a statistically robust tree, which is largely consistent with previous classifications. However, a few taxa were found to be para- or polyphyletic, including the family Balaenopteridae, as well as several genera and species. Accordingly, we propose several taxonomic changes in order to render the classification compatible with our molecular phylogeny. In some cases, the results can be interpreted as possible taxonomic misidentification or evidence for mtDNA introgression. The existence of three new cryptic species of Ruminantia should therefore be confirmed by further analyses using nuclear data. We estimate divergence times using Bayesian relaxed molecular clock models. The deepest nodes appeared very sensitive to prior assumptions leading to unreliable estimates, primarily because of the misleading effects of rate heterogeneity, saturation and divergent outgroups. In addition, we detected that Whippomorpha contains slow-evolving taxa, such as large whales and hippos, as well as fast-evolving taxa, such as river dolphins. Our results nevertheless indicate that the evolutionary history of cetartiodactyls was punctuated by four main phases of rapid radiation during the Cenozoic era: the sudden occurrence of the three extant lineages within Cetartiodactyla (Cetruminantia, Suina and Tylopoda); the basal diversification of Cetacea during the Early Oligocene; and two radiations that involve Cetacea and Pecora, one at the Oligocene/Miocene boundary and the other in the Middle Miocene. In addition, we show that the high species diversity now observed in the families Bovidae and Cervidae accumulated mainly during the Late Miocene and Plio-Pleistocene.

HOW TO CHOOSE A NORMALIZATION STRATEGY FOR MIRNA QUANTITATIVE REAL-TIME (QPCR) ARRAYS

Low-density arrays for quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) are increasingly being used as an experimental technique for miRNA expression profiling. As with gene expression profiling using microarrays, data from such experiments needs effective analysis methods to produce reliable and high-quality results. In the pre-processing of the data, one crucial analysis step is normalization, which aims to reduce measurement errors and technical variability among arrays that might have arisen during the execution of the experiments. However, there are currently a number of different approaches to choose among and an unsuitable applied method may induce misleading effects, which could affect the subsequent analysis steps and thereby any conclusions drawn from the results. The choice of normalization method is hence an important issue to consider. In this study we present the comparison of a number of data-driven normalization methods for TaqMan low-density arrays for qPCR and different descriptive statistical techniques that can facilitate the choice of normalization method. The performance of the normalization methods was assessed and compared against each other as well as against standard normalization using endogenous controls. The results clearly show that the data-driven methods reduce variation and represent robust alternatives to using endogenous controls.

Mean Age of First Sex: Do They Know What We Mean?

Mean Age of First Sex: Do They Know What We Mean?

The Problem of Subgroup Analyses: An Example from a Trial on Ruptured Intracranial Aneurysms

The randomized ISAT demonstrated the superiority of endovascular treatment in patients with ruptured intracranial aneurysms considered suitable for either clipping or coiling. A later publication proposed a second look at the results, demonstrating that older patients with ruptured MCA aneurysms appeared to benefit from clipping, in disagreement with the general findings of the trial. Subgroup analyses in randomized trials and observational studies examine whether effects of interventions differ between subgroups according to the characteristics of patients. However, many apparent subgroup effects have been shown to be spurious. Misleading subgroup effects can result in withholding efficacious treatment from patients who would benefit or can encourage ineffective or potentially harmful treatments for patients who would fare better without. Some guidelines for the prudent interpretation of subgroup findings are reviewed.

Predicting hospital mortality among frequently readmitted patients: HSMR biased by readmission

BackgroundCasemix adjusted in-hospital mortality is one of the measures used to improve quality of care. The adjustment currently used does not take into account the effects of readmission, because reliable data on readmission is not readily available through routinely collected databases. We have studied the impact of readmissions by linking admissions of the same patient, and as a result were able to compare hospital mortality among frequently, as opposed to, non-frequently readmitted patients. We also formulated a method to adjust for readmission for the calculation of hospital standardised mortality ratios (HSMRs).MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal retrospective analysis of routinely collected hospital data of six large non-university teaching hospitals in the Netherlands with casemix adjusted standardised mortality ratios ranging from 65 to 114 and a combined value of 93 over a five-year period. Participants concerned 240662 patients admitted 418566 times in total during the years 2003 - 2007. Predicted deaths by the HSMR model 2008 over a five-year period were compared with observed deaths.ResultsNumbers of readmissions per patient differ substantially between the six hospitals, up to a factor of 2. A large interaction was found between numbers of admissions per patient and HSMR-predicted risks. Observed deaths for frequently admitted patients were significantly lower than HSMR-predicted deaths, which could be explained by uncorrected factors surrounding readmissions.ConclusionsPatients admitted more frequently show lower risks of dying on average per admission. This decline in risk is only partly detected by the current HSMR. Comparing frequently admitted patients to non-frequently admitted patients commits the constant risk fallacy and potentially lowers HSMRs of hospitals treating many frequently admitted patients and increases HSMRs of hospitals treating many non-frequently admitted patients. This misleading effect can only be demonstrated by an analysis over a prolonged period, but occurs, in effect, every day of the year. This finding is relevant for all countries where hospitals use HSMR for monitoring and improving hospital performance. The use of 'admission frequency' as additional adjustment variable may provide a more accurate HSMR.

Norman Rockwell vs. Richard Serra: Cultural Populism and Its Vicissitudes at the End of the Twentieth Century

In 1939, Clement Greenberg resoundingly criticised Norman Rockwell (that painter of charming small-town Americana) and kitsch in order to praise the values of a leftist avant-garde. For Greenberg, kitsch represented a rear-guard of cultural production, a symptom of industrialisation and urbanisation. Presenting itself as a substitute for both high and folk culture, it pandered to the nostalgia of the working classes for an organic sense of cultural diversion. By 1999, kitsch had few critics and many admirers,1 with Greenberg's critical legacy repudiated by the most cutting-edge art theorists (indeed, the journal October framed itself as a negation of Greenbergian aesthetics). Greenberg's critique of kitsch was based on his understanding of the avant-garde's political significance; it had to protect the values of aesthetic autonomy and critical negativity. Greenberg identified kitsch with totalitarianism, especially with the personal and political philistinism of Hitler, Mussolini, and Stalin. Because kitsch produced deceptive and misleading sensational effects, avant-garde art became a line of defence against propaganda.

Context Effects in Judicial Decision Making

In this paper, we present five sets of studies of how lawyers can induce judges to make erroneous judgments and how judges seem to respond. In the first, we demonstrate that a simple contrast effect can influence judges by showing that adding a worthless expert witness who lacks credibility can boost one's case. In the second, we show that judges' assessments of the probative value of forensic evidence depends upon how the information is presented. But at the same time, we show that judges resist this misleading attempt at misdirection. Similarly, in the third set of studies, we show that judges are vulnerable to the misleading effects of the conjunctive logic, but that they seem also able to resist this effect in settings that are more relevant to the kinds of judgments they make. In the fourth set of studies, we identify how it is that judges avoid the influence of the hindsight bias on judgments of probable cause by altering the target of the judgment that they make. (In this study, the natural setting, rather than tricky lawyering, provides the potential source of misdirection, but judges seem to navigate it well.) In the final set of studies we show how judges attempt to ignore inadmissible evidence in ways that make them vulnerable to further undesirable extra-legal influences. Taken together, these studies show that misdirection is a two-way streets in the courtroom. Laywers can try to misdirected judges to induce erroneous judgments, but judges might well respond by changing their own focus to more stable targets that make them less vulnerable to untoward influences. These efforts, however, can also backfire, as judges can make themselves more vulnerable to error.