Minds Of Voters Research Articles

Risk, Government and Globalization: International Survey Evidence

This paper uses international survey data to document two stylized facts. First, risk aversion is associated with anti-trade attitudes. Second, this effect is smaller in countries with greater levels of government expenditure. The paper thus provides evidence for the microeconomic underpinnings of the argument associated with Ruggie (1982), Rodrik (1998) and others that government spending can bolster support for globalization by reducing the risk associated with it in the minds of voters.

Indecision Theory: Weight of Evidence and Voting Behavior

AbstractIn this paper, we show how to incorporate weight of evidence, or ambiguity, into a model of voting behavior. We do so in the context of the turnout decision of instrumentally rational voters who differ in their perception of the ambiguity of the candidates' policy positions. Ambiguity is reflected by the fact that the voter's beliefs are given by a set of probabilities, each of which represents in the voter's mind a different possible scenario. We show that a voter who is averse to ambiguity considers abstention strictly optimal when the candidates' policy positions are both ambiguous and they are “ambiguity complements.” Abstaining is preferred since it is tantamount to mixing the prospects embodied by the two candidates, thus enabling the voter to “hedge” the candidates' ambiguity.

Campaigning for hearts and minds: how emotional appeals in political ads work

It is common knowledge that televised political are meant to appeal to voters' emotions, yet little is known about how or if these tactics actually work. Ted Brader's innovative book is the first scientific study to examine the effects that these emotional appeals in political advertising have on voter decision-making. At the heart of this book are ingenious experiments, conducted by Brader during an election, with truly eye-opening results that upset conventional wisdom. They show, for example, that simply changing the music or imagery of while retaining the same text provokes completely different responses. He reveals that politically informed citizens are more easily manipulated by emotional appeals than less-involved citizens and that positive ads are in fact more polarizing than negative Black-and-white video images are ten times more likely to signal an appeal to fear or anger than one to enthusiasm or pride, and the emotional appeal triumphs over the logical appeal in nearly three-quarters of all political ads. Brader backs up these surprising findings with an unprecedented survey of emotional appeals in contemporary political campaigns. Politicians do set out to campaign for the hearts and minds of voters, and, for better or for worse, it is primarily through hearts that minds are won. Campaigning for Hearts and Minds will be indispensable for anyone wishing to understand how American politics is influenced by advertising today.

Purple America

America, we are told, is a nation divided. The cartographers who draw up the maps of U.S. election results have branded a new division in American politics: Republican red versus Democratic blue. What is the source of this division? Most observers point not to the bread-and-butter economic issues of the New Deal alignment but to a “culture war.” In this paper, we draw on data from three decades of survey research to see how the electorate divides along economic and moral issues. While showing that moral values are not irrelevant, the survey data roundly reject the basic claims of the culture war thesis: that voters are polarized over moral issues, and this division maps onto important demographic categories like religious affiliation; that moral issues have more salience or weight in the minds of voters than economic issues; and that this division accounts for red and blue cartography (because red-state voters are moral conservatives who vote on moral issues without regard for their economic interests or preferences.) We put issue cleavages and electoral maps into historical perspective and demonstrate that over the course of the twentieth century there has been a noteworthy political convergence between the states. Compared to the past, the political geography of the United States today is purple.

Branding in Politics—Manifestations, Relevance and Identity-Oriented Management

ABSTRACT In contrast to classical marketing, previous research on political marketing has barely considered the branding aspect. This is all the more surprising, given that on the one hand, political parties and their key representatives presumably fulfil the main criteria of an impact-oriented brand as a firmly anchored, consistent perceptual image in the minds of voters. On the other hand, there are many indicators that political brands are of considerable significance for voting decisions. In essence, the importance of brands for voting decisions on the part of the consumers derives from their branding functions, such as orientation aid in the form of an “information chunk” or risk-reduction function in the sense of a confidence surrogate. Based on the hypothesis that brand management thus constitutes a central challenge for the marketing of political parties, it is appropriate to investigate what approach seems best suited to managing political brands and how these should be formulated.

Indecision Theory: Quality of Information and Voting Behavior

In this paper we show how to incorporate quality of information into a model of voting behavior. We do so in the context of the turnout decision of instrumentally rational voters who differ in their quality of information, which we refer to as ambiguity. Ambiguity is reflected by the fact that the voter's beliefs are given by a set of probabilities, each of which represents in the voter's mind a different possible scenario. We show that in most elections voters who satisfy the Bayesian model do not strictly prefer abstaining over voting for one of the candidates. In contrast, a voter who is averse to ambiguity considers abstention strictly optimal when the candidates' policy positions are both ambiguous and they are “ambiguity complements. Abstaining is preferred since it is tantamount to mixing the prospects embodied by the two candidates, thus enabling the voter to “hedge the candidates' ambiguity.

Midterm Elections and Divided Government:An Information-Driven Theory of Electoral Volatility

Divided government affects individual choices over how to vote in midterm elections because it increases uncertainty in the minds of voters. Particularly, divided control of government makes blame attribution more difficult by obscuring causal connections and reducing the overall amount of usable information. As a result, we argue that under divided government, voters are less likely to vote for the House candidate not of the President's party. Using both NES and election-specific contextual data, we examine divided government's effect on the voters' political knowledge and candidate preferences in all midterm elections from 1978 to 1994, controlling for well identified factors that shape outcomes in House elections. We find, first, that divided government reduces the amount of political information held by voters. Second, divided govern ment helps the President's party by lowering the probability that an indi vidual votes for the out-party candidate.

Jersey: exercising executive power in a non-party system

Four features of Jersey's system of government may be distinguished: the conflation of legislative and executive powers in a single institution, the States; the high degree of internal autonomy secured by what is nominally a Crown dependency; the absence of political parties or permanent factions; and the tenacity of tradition. This article reviews the evolution of the Island's governing institutions under the immediate influence of local authorities and the distant but occasionally decisive influence of developments in Britain. It identifies the source of institutional stress in the dilemmas posed by Jersey's development as a leading purveyor of financial services. The article demonstrates the tension in the minds of voters, politicians and officials between tenacious conventions and growing pressures for change and adaptation. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Effect of Partisan Information on Voters in Nonpartisan Elections

How does partisan information affect individual voting behavior in nonpartisan elections? Using data from a 1982 California Poll survey on state supreme court confirmation elections we demonstrate that nonpartisan elections are easily turned into partisan contests in the minds of voters. Partisan information increases the probability of an individual holding an opinion on the elections, and results in votes which are based on the respondent's partisan identification and opinion of the governor who appointed the justice. The implications of these results for nonpartisan elections in general and merit retention contests in particular are also discussed.

Ideology, Issues, and the Spatial Theory of Elections

The purpose of this article is to explore the connection between ideology and issues in the minds of voters and the relationship between this connection and the electoral prospects of candidates engaged in two-candidate competition. Toward this end we examine the effects on electoral competition of either magnifying or collapsing the expected policy difference that voters associate with a fixed ideological difference. We find that magnifying this difference aids the incumbent, whereas collapsing it aids the challenger. We go on to point out how this second result provides an explanation for the electoral appeal of extremist candidates and an important insight into the question of state stability.

Ideology, Issues, and the Spatial Theory of Elections

The purpose of this article is to explore the connection between ideology and issues in the minds of voters and the relationship between this connection and the electoral prospects of candidates engaged in two-candidate competition. Toward this end we examine the effects on electoral competition of either magnifying or collapsing the expected policy difference that voters associate with a fixed ideological difference. We find that magnifying this difference aids the incumbent, whereas collapsing it aids the challenger. We go on to point out how this second result provides an explanation for the electoral appeal of extremist candidates and an important insight into the question of state stability.

Aspects of Recruitment to Civil Office in a Mexican Community

Mesoamerican community studies frequently identify the traditional civil-religious hierarchy or the power of a political boss as a central factor in the recruitment of political authorities. However, some villages in the Oaxaca Valley of southern Mexico recruit to office via open elections. Formal criteria established by the state are of minor importance, but family resources, competence, and character weigh heavily in the minds of voters. Efforts to facilitate recruitment by reducing the burdens of officeholding may have negative impact on local government effectiveness.

The Mass Media and Campaign Strategy in a Mayoralty Election

The roles played by television, radio and community newspapers in the bitter Yorty-Poulson race for mayor of Los Angeles are analyzed in detail. Television proved to be most influential in the minds of voters.

Trends of the Voter's Mind

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Résumé Avec la coopération des membres de la Ligue Nationale des Femmes qui Votent on a obtenu au mois d'octobre, 1932, des réactions de 8419 hommes et femmes aux principaux candidats à la Présidence et aux principales questions de la lutte. Les “votants” ont représenté cinq groupes d'occupations et 37 états des Etats-Unis. Le principal but de l'étude a été de comparer les attitudes politiques des partisane de Hoover, de Roosevelt, et de Thomas. Ceux de Roosevelt n'ont jamais composé un seul groupe au point de vue d'accepter ou de rejeter une question politique. Ils ont adopté la position de Hoover, celle de Thomas, ou sont restés entre les deux, selon la question. Ils offrent probablement un bon tableau statistique d'un mouvement libéral. Les partisans de Hoover ont eu des opinions plus prononcées et plus uniques que ceux de Roosevelt, et ceux de Thomas ont montré les attitudes les plus prononcées et les plus uniques. L'étude montre aussi de certaines différ ences associées au sexe et au niveau de l'occupation. Referat Unter Mitwirkung der Mitgleider des Nationalvereins der weiblichen Wahler [National League of Women Voters] wurden im Oktober 1932 die Reaktionen von 8419 Mannern und Frauen auf die wichtigsten Kanditaten für das Präsidententum und auf die wichtigsten Streitfragen [issues of the campaign] erhalten. Die “Wahler” stammten aus fünf verschiedenen Berufsgruppen und aus 37 Staaten der Vereinigten Staaten. Das Hauptziel der Untersuchung war, die politischen Einstellungen der Parteigängner für Hoover, Roosevelt, und Thomas zu vergleichen. Die Rooseveltanhanger standen in ihrer Annahme oder Zurückweisung einer politischen Behauptung nie allein. Je nach der Frage gingen sie zur Hoover'schen oder zur Thomas'schen Einstellung über oder nahmen eine mittlere Stellung ein. Sie bieten wahrscheinlich ein gutes statistisches Bild einer liberalen Bewegung dar. Die Hooververtreter waren in ihren Einstellungen etwas ausgeprägter und individueller, als die Rooseveltvertreter, und die Thomasvertreter nahmen die ausgeprägtesten und individuellesten Einstellen ein. Durch die Untersuchung werden auch gewisse, mit Geschlecht und Berufsstand in Beziehung stehende Unterschiede hervorgehoben.