Military Capabilities Research Articles

Russia–China Strategic Alignment: Are They Headed Towards a Military Alliance?

In a short span, Moscow and Beijing have transformed their ties from Cold War hostility to a remarkably cordial and dynamic partnership. This transition enables them to expand their regional influence, resist Western pressure and play a dominant role in the Global South. Together, they possess resources, demonstrate determination and have military capability to challenge the superiority of the West. However, their growing strategic cooperation has fuelled speculations about a potential military alliance. This article addresses the following questions: first, how deep is the partnership between the two states? Second, how has US policy contributed to closer ties between the two states? Third, what is the extent of military co-operation between the two states? Are they headed towards a formal military alliance? And finally, how has this partnership fared during the Russia–Ukraine war? This article critically examines policy documents, statements of important leaders and views of experts from Russia, China and the United States. It draws inferences from data on Russia–China economic exchanges, defence agreements and declarations at bilateral and multilateral forums.

Security-Diplomacy Nexus: Nature of Bilateral Cooperation in Kenya - India Military Diplomatic Relations Since 1963

Bilateral and multilateral agreements have been one of the mechanisms through which growth and development have taken place. The newly created independent states of the Cold War period presented a major paradigm shift in international cooperation to include military diplomacy. Kenya and India being among these newly created states have had their cooperation where by the two countries have used their good diplomatic relations to bolster one another's military capabilities. The current study sought to put into perspective the conduct of bilateral relations between Kenya and India. The objective of this study was to examine the nature of bilateral cooperation in enhancing Kenya-India military-diplomatic relations since 1963. The study was anchored on power theory. The study adopted a descriptive research design. The study was carried out in Nairobi County, Kenya with a specific focus on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Defence Ministry, and Indian High Commission. The target population was 2500. The sample size for the study was determined using Yamane's (1967) formula to calculate the sample size, which was 250 Qualitative data obtained from interviews were analysed using narrative reports using thematic techniques. Quantitative data from the questionnaires was edited, coded, and entered into a computer spreadsheet in a standard format to allow descriptive statistics analysis. Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS) edition 24 and Microsoft Office Excel 2013 were used for the quantitative data. The findings of the study revealed that the nature of Kenya-India military diplomatic relations manifested in various forms including through High-profile visits by Kenyan and Indian officials to both states as a way of strengthening bilateral relations. Technological transfer was another way through which these two nations shaped their diplomatic relationship, particularly in information and communication technology (ICT). Additionally, Defense trade and trade agreements, Security Partnerships, Counterterrorism activities, Maritime Safety, and Peacekeeping missions were common areas of cooperation between Kenya and India. The study concludes that bilateral cooperation between Kenya and India has been instrumental in enhancing their military-diplomatic relations since 1963. The study recommends that, to better understand the nature of bilateral cooperation, Kenya and India should establish a permanent joint military commission to oversee and coordinate defense initiatives.

Effectiveness of military spending in reducing the intensity of armed conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract This study empirically examines the effectiveness of military spending in reducing the intensity of armed conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. We use a dynamic probit model, and the results show that military spending reduces the intensity of conflict. It significantly reduces low-intensity conflicts more than high-intensity conflicts. Additionally, the effectiveness of military spending depends on its level and the quality of institutions. Finally, the analysis of transmission channels shows that military spending affects conflict intensity mainly through the channel of military capabilities. We conducted several tests and robustness checks to ensure the validity of our results.

Methodological Concepts of Appling AI into Military and Economic Capabilities Data Analysis

Methodological Concepts of Appling AI into Military and Economic Capabilities Data Analysis

Resource supply and demand model of military settlements in the cold weapon era: case of Zhenbao Town, Ming Great Wall

As an important military defense project in Chinese history, the Ming Dynasty Great Wall and its associated military settlements played a crucial role in maintaining border security. A systematic analysis of how military settlements allocated resources based on external threats and geo-strategic needs is essential to understanding their settlements defense systems. However, this aspect has been relatively under-explored in existing research. Therefore, a resource allocation assessment model for Great Wall military settlements during the Cold Weapon era is established to facilitate a more scientific analysis and quantitative assessment of Military Defense Capabilities(MDC) and Military Requirements(MR). This study employs a combined Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) approach to determine the weight of each indicator for both military defense capability and military requirement. Spatial clustering using K-means is conducted to visualize the distribution of these strengths and weaknesses. An Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model links military requirements with defense capabilities, assessing the relationship between settlement locations and historical battle sites. Residual analysis is utilized to identify areas of resource over-allocation or under-allocation. The study reveals that the regional differences in military defense capabilities and requirements within the Zhenbao Town area during the Ming Dynasty correspond closely with the locations of frequent conflicts. This finding suggests that the distribution of defensive capabilities were strengthened in areas with challenging terrain, while the effectiveness and allocation of defense capabilities were determined by logistical support and transportation conditions. This study enhances our understanding of historical military strategies from a historical geography perspective and offers innovative insights for analyzing Great Wall settlement, moving beyond mere sensory intuition and historical experience.

Strategic Localization for Ukraine's Defense Industry

Purpose: to evaluate the options for strategic localization for the defence industrial sector of Ukraine and to provide practical recommendations for the implementation of the policy. Method: comparative analysis, synthesis, and case studies. Findings: Rebuilding Ukraine’s degraded defence industry is vital for its long-term security and strategic interests, and a robust Ukrainian defence industry supports partner nation security interests as well. While continued foreign assistance remains essential in the short term, Ukraine needs to progressively localize repair, assembly, and repair capabilities for its most critical military equipment. Theoretical implications: The paper enhances our understanding of key concepts relating to the contributions of the local defence industry to the security of Ukraine, and how those industries can be developed to support the capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine war serves as a contemporary case study to explore these theories in practice. The paper provides new insights for understanding the practical application of the policy of localization. Value: Examining the practical implications of the policy of localization in Ukraine’s defence industry in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war involves understanding how these theories translate into real-world recommendations, both for Ukraine and for its international partners. that can contribute to the development and sustainment of Ukraine’s military capabilities. Research limitations: The classification of much information relating to Ukraine’s defence industry and defence capabilities, along with the contributions of international partners, forms a limitation on the scope and depth of the study.

What we mean

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

The future

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

The strategic utility of cyber operations

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

The cyber dimension of the Russia–Ukraine war

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

Responsible cyber power

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

A short history of cyber operations

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

Strategic risks

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

Maintaining balance

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

The UK model

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

Attacking the issue

In the twenty-first century, cyberspace and the ‘real world’ have become inseparable. The stability and security of cyberspace therefore affect, in increasingly profound ways, the economies, international reputations, national security, military capabilities and global influence of states. In their short history, operations in cyberspace have already been used extensively by states and their non-state supporters for many purposes. They are an inevitable aspect of contemporary international affairs while carrying significant risk. In this Adelphi book, Marcus Willett, a former deputy head of GCHQ, argues that there is no coherent or widely shared understanding of what cyber operations really are, how they are used and what they can do; or of their implications for strategic affairs and international law; or what their ‘responsible’ use really entails. The myths and misunderstandings that abound tend to dull the conceptual clarity needed by strategic policymakers and overseers, and they complicate the essential task in a liberal democracy of maintaining public consent for, and legitimisation of, the development and use of such capabilities. The book sheds light on these issues, exposing myths and clarifying misunderstandings.

Germany’s approach to the functioning of NATO standing force groups in the mid-2010s and early 2020s

Western democracies have endowed NATO with the functions of “containment” of Russia and influential non-Western powers in general. This process is accompanied by a spasmodic growth of the Alliance’s military capabilities and changes in its internal structure. The principal responsibility for the implementation of the aforementioned measures falls upon the European member states, particularly those which have been members of the Alliance for a considerable length of time. Of these, Germany has demonstrated the most considerable commitment. Although some studies have examined the evolution of the Alliance’s military structures, there is a dearth of literature on Germany’s role in the Alliance within the field of Russian historiography. Nevertheless, an analysis of this topic is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of Berlin’s strategic intentions. The objective of this article is to examine the role of the FRG in relation to the functioning of permanent NATO troops. In order to achieve this, the author employs two distinct theoretical frameworks, namely those of alliance theory and military capability building, in combination with a comparative analysis approach. The author illustrates the distinctive features of the evolution of permanent NATO force groups and elucidates the challenges, including a shortage of military personnel, and opportunities, including limited activity by other NATO member states, that have influenced the utilisation of the Bundeswehr in the functioning of the groups. In light of the aforementioned conceptual and operational documents, which serve as the foundation for Germany’s foreign policy, the article posits that the Federal Republic of Germany is prepared to assume a leading role within the European NATO member state contingent with regard to the operationalisation of multilateral troop groupings.

AI-driven adaptive analysis for finding emergent behavior in military capability design

This article introduces and demonstrates a new methodology for searching for emergent behavior in simulation-based analysis as rare, extreme events using adaptive techniques enabled by recent advances in Bayesian machine learning (ML). The new methodology, Low-cost Adaptive exploratioN to Track down Extreme, Rare events using Numerical optimization (LANTERN), supports analysis activities in defense planning that iteratively build up the understanding of new technology and concept alternatives in complex military scenarios. Central to this process is emergent behavior—hard-to-predict but highly important behaviors that present problems or opportunities. These unexpected behaviors can be generated in complex military scenarios and are crucial to decision-making, but are often difficult to find and work with due to the expense and cost of the existing approaches for working with high-fidelity military simulation. To address this challenge, LANTERN is formulated to accelerate the discovery of emergent behavior as rare, extreme events by combining human expert understanding with new artificial intelligence (AI)-driven adaptive experimentation techniques in iterative analysis. A demonstration of the methodology is presented using military agent-based simulation scenarios developed in the Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration, and Modeling (AFSIM). The demonstration highlights how analysis can focus directly on searching for emergent behavior and shows substantial improvements over brute-force Monte Carlo approaches.

The interplay of capability and complexity in military context: definitions, challenges, and implications

ABSTRACT This paper explores the interplay between capability and complexity within the context of military forces. The findings here describe how these two concepts intersect and highlight the capability definitions, themes, challenges, opportunities, and applications. By running a thorough review of 314 articles, 10 key research themes have been identified, including: 1) Capability Development and Assessment, 2) Regional Defence Studies, 3) Technological Advancements in Military, 4) Strategic Analysis, 5) Operational Tactics, 6) Defence Industry Dynamics, 7) Organisational and Management Aspects, 8) Cybersecurity and Network Capabilities, 9) Military Training and Exercises, and 10) Policy and Political Implications. Among these themes, the literature highlights the importance of a subtle understanding of capability and complexity for well-informed decision-making in military and defence domains. Moreover, this study identifies gaps in existing research and emphasises the need for a coherent theoretical framework to guide decision-makers for military capability acquisitions. The findings have implications for enhancing national security, defence capability planning and resource allocation strategies.

Maverick or Front-runner? Army Modernization in Hungary in the Light of the Other Visegrad Countries

This article compares Hungary's defence modernisation policy with that of the other Visegrad countries and finds that Poland has invested the most in developing its military capabilities and, together with the Czech Republic, has benefited considerably from rising international demand stimulated by the war. Both combined the purchase of modern equipment with the award of government contracts to local suppliers. Slovakia followed the same pattern, but without significant export capacity. Hungary, on the other hand, was unable to prevent the collapse of its former defence industry. As a result, its current development programme uniquely integrates the goals of army modernisation with the plan for rebuilding the sector, which relies heavily on the participation of large European companies, whose role is less important in the other countries. Two other distinctive features of the Hungarian modernisation policy are its embeddedness in broader economic and regional policies, and the creation of six distinct territorial clusters where the reorganisation of the sector is taking place.