Military Action Research Articles

Самобытные (неутвержденные) дворянские гербы М.И. Платова на гравированных портретах

For the first time, engraved coat of arms portraits of the cavalry general, military Ataman of the Don Army, Count M.I. Platov, are studied, their origin and role in visualizing the image of the Don Ataman among the highest generals and dignitaries, the population of the Russian Empire, the royal and imperial families of Europe are considered. The article analyzes the noble coats of arms of M.I. Platov, their construction and forms, accompaniment, content, heraldic and non-heraldic symbols. It is proved that the coats of arms depicted on the engraved portraits are not approved, independent, and spiritually go back to the Don coat of arms tradition of the second half of the 18th century. There is a close relationship with the processes of formation of the South Russian nobility, on the one hand, and the imperfection of the regulatory framework and its enforcement to Don elders and officials, on the other. The ideological dependence of the coat of arms symbols on the military service activities of the Don Cossacks and M.I. Platov is traced. The reasons, conditions, and time of writing engraved portraits are clarified, judgments are made about the initiators of their writing. Based on the historical and subject method of attribution of a military portrait, the content and accompaniment of the engraved portraits of M.I. Platov are considered, the connection of images with real events and facts of the biography of the Don chieftain is shown. A description of the personalities of the coat of arms portraits is proposed, the main identification markers are noted - in the uniform, faleristics, military fittings, artistic accompaniment, their role in revealing the image of M.I. Platov is emphasized. The influence of the content of the armorial portraits and original coats of arms on the Highly approved coat of arms of M.I. Platov on the dignity of the count of the Russian Empire is noted. At the same time, it is emphasized that not a single original coat of arms became the prototype of the count's coat of arms of the Don Ataman. They are independent armorial and artistic works.

Effects of 34 Weeks of Military Service on Body Composition and Physical Fitness in Military Cadets of Angola.

Military personnel need physical fitness to effectively carry out operational military activities within their specific field of operation. This research investigates the effects of a 34-week training program on Angolan cadets' body composition, muscle strength, and cardiorespiratory fitness. Seventy-four volunteer recruits, aged 18 to 26 years, were monitored during their eight-month military service, following an exercise program protocol comprising 12 weeks of strength training followed by 24 weeks of endurance training. Anthropometric variables, including body mass, body mass index, and fat mass, were assessed, along with cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2max), sprint performance, countermovement jump (CMJ), medicine ball throw, push-ups, and curl-ups. The physical training protocol encompassed running sessions, strength exercises, agility drills, and flexibility exercises. The initial assessment revealed gender differences in various parameters such as body mass, body fat percentage, VO2max, sprinting, countermovement jump (CMJ), medicine ball throw, and push-ups. Following the training program, changes were observed in all variables (effect size between 0.48 and 2.33, p < 0.01) for the participants. Significant interactions (sex × time) were found in body mass (F = 5.18, p = 0.03, ηp2 = 0.06), body fat percentage (F = 5.31, p < 0.01, ηp2 = 0.14), and medicine ball throw (F = 10.84, p < 0.01, ηp2 = 0.13). Specifically, males exhibited a greater reduction in body mass (females: 2.70%, males: 3.47%, p < 0.05) and a substantial improvement in ball throwing performance (females: 7.74%, males: 11.47%, p < 0.01), while females experienced a greater reduction in fat mass (females: 5.34%, males: 3.15%, p < 0.01). The physical training regimen effectively influenced body composition, particularly in enhancing strength performance among males. The integration of exercise programs with military service led to a notable reduction in fat tissue and an increase in lean tissue. Hence, the development of tailored training protocols is imperative to enhance the physical capacity and overall health of military recruits, considering sex-specific characteristics and physical attributes.

Проблемы укрепления безопасности российского Севера в условиях военной активности НАТО

Актуальность проблемы обусловлена тем, что основные причины и предпосылки расширения военной активности Арктических стран вызваны обострением международной обстановки в мире, возникновением новой архитектуры международных отношений. Подчеркивается, что возрастающая роль РФ на мировом энергетическом и продовольственном рынках, а также в мировой морской логистике блокирует США и их союзников по НАТО, заставляет их проводить агрессивный курс и милитаризировать Арктику. Россия вынуждена принимать ответные меры, укрепляя свою оборону в этом регионе. Статья нацелена на авторскую в современных условиях оценку процессов милитаризации Арктики. Используются следующие исследовательские методы: структурно-функциональный, логистический, историко-сравнительный. Задача исследования – изучение усиления роли Арктики в современных условиях. В статье использованы элементы экспертности. Укрепляя арктическую безопасность, Россия надеется на здравый подход и независимую от США арктическую политику небольших государств членов Арктического Совета, таких как Исландия, Дания, Норвегия, Швеция, которым Вашингтон пытается «выкручивать руки» и принуждает усиливать военное присутствие в регионе. В освоении Арктики, укреплении региональной безопасности в этом открывающемся регионе Москва рассчитывает и на поддержку таких дружественных стран, как Индия и Китай. С КНР уже налажены неплохой диалог и совместная практическая деятельность в Арктике. Его экономика, экономическая мощь, растущий политический вес как ядерной державы, как постоянного члена СБ ООН несомненны. Китай все больше превращается в мировую сверхдержаву, способную реально противостоять США.

UAWC: An intelligent underwater acoustic target recognition system for working conditions mismatching

Underwater acoustic target recognition (UATR) systems are crucial to both military and civilian activities. However, the complex ship working conditions will largely affect the performance of recognition systems, especially in the case of working conditions mismatching (WCMM). For WCMM problems, an intelligent UATR system for working condition mismatching (UAWC) is proposed. UAWC uses auditory features as input to the system and uses knowledge distillation to learn the intrinsic connections of target features under different working conditions. In the proposed approach, the teacher network obtains initial knowledge by utilizing a large amount of existing working condition data. Next, the student network uses a small amount of target working data for training, and extracts incremental knowledge in teacher network through knowledge distillation technology to enhance the accuracy of its classification of target working data, so as to effectively deal with the WCMM problem.The tests make use of datasets for ship-radiated noise under various working conditions.The results showed that UAWC performs better than other methods on a wide range of WCMM problems.

IMPACT OF THE WAR ON UKRAINE'S INVESTMENT CLIMATE: RISK ASSESSMENT AND PROSPECTS FOR FOREIGN INVESTORS

The article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the investment climate in Ukraine. Based on current statistical data and expert assessments, the main risks for foreign investors caused by military actions on the country's territory are identified. Among them are: large-scale destruction of critical infrastructure, disruption of established logistics chains, a rapid decline in the purchasing power of the population, as well as a high level of uncertainty regarding the further course and duration of the armed conflict. At the same time, the author considers the potential prospects for restoring the investment attractiveness of Ukraine in the conditions of post-war reconstruction. Special emphasis is placed on forecasting the likely dynamics and sectoral structure of foreign investment in the Ukrainian economy starting from 2025, based on the assumption of the completion of the active phase of hostilities. Based on the identified competitive advantages of Ukraine, a set of measures is proposed to improve the national investment environment in the medium and long term. They include ensuring macroeconomic stability, carrying out structural reforms of the regulatory and judicial systems, strengthening the institutional protection of investors' rights, as well as attracting large-scale financial and technical assistance from international partners. At the same time, the author emphasizes the critical importance of forming a holistic strategic vision for the development of Ukraine as a competitive and investment-attractive state in the long-term horizon, which requires the implementation of a targeted policy to stimulate innovation, build modern infrastructure and integrate into global value chains. The article also analyzes the experience of other countries that have suffered significant economic losses due to military conflicts, and highlights the most effective strategies for restoring investment attractiveness in post-war reconstruction. In particular, successful examples of attracting foreign investment in the countries of the Balkan region and Southeast Asia, which managed to quickly overcome the consequences of armed confrontations and ensure sustainable economic growth, are considered. Based on this experience, the author proposes to adapt best practices to Ukrainian realities, taking into account the specifics of the national institutional environment and geopolitical context. Special attention is paid to the role of international financial institutions, in particular the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, in supporting investment processes in Ukraine in the context of post-war recovery. The importance of aligning their financial and technical assistance programs with national development priorities and ensuring effective coordination of efforts of all stakeholders is emphasized. In summary, the author concludes that restoring the investment attractiveness of Ukraine in the conditions of post-war reconstruction will require a comprehensive approach that combines urgent measures to overcome the devastating consequences of the war with strategic initiatives aimed at ensuring the long-term competitiveness of the national economy. Only under such conditions will Ukraine be able to fully realize its investment potential and become an attractive destination for international capital in the post-war world.

SWOT ANALYSIS OF THE ACTIVITIES OF ADIDAS-UKRAINE DURING THE ESCALATION OF MILITARY ACTIONS IN UKRAINE

The topicality of the topic lies in determining the perspective of adaptation of enterprises to the challenges dictated by military actions, including the annexation of business territories, destruction of fixed assets, migration of workers, constant risk to life and health. The main idea of the work is to develop recommendations for the private sector to continue working in Ukraine after a full-scale invasion, in order to provide the population with jobs, high-quality goods and services, and faith in the bright future of the state. The war caused troubles and cataclysms in the domestic economy as a whole and in the market of consumer goods, in particular, because a large part of trading points, shops, pavilions was destroyed and cannot be restored. Significant minus factors of the profitable activity of the private sector are the annexation of territories led to the usurpation of the fixed assets of trade enterprises, including; decrease in the number of the workforce – personnel of organizations; decrease in demand for clothes and accessories of popular brands, due to changes in values and financial capabilities; mass migration of potential consumers of the sports goods and services market; the lack of profits causes the predominance of the expense part of the balance sheet and, accordingly, the unprofitability of the activity; withdrawal from the consumer goods market of companies with a higher level of prices and product quality. The war also necessitated the reorientation of production to military lines, and therefore goods and services for civilians are not a priority; forced closure of shops, warehouses, sales points in the aggressor country; growing consumer sensitivity to the enterprise's business policy, the level of its assistance in achieving victory; and increased the global need to help the population, even in the face of the prospect of bankruptcy and withdrawal from the country's consumer market and increased tax pressure. And, in the end, it led to a decrease in the possibilities of receiving state orders, grants, subsidies, quotas.

ANALYSIS OF FUNCTIONAL SPEECH ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN MILITARY TRANSLATION

The research is focused on the aspect of functional speech adaptation of language interpreters who are gaining practical experience at the initial stage in the sphere of foreign-language military-professional communication and paying special attention to the search for original speech strategies to achieve the targets of the translation process in the most efficient way. The critical objective of the article is to theorize the functional speech adaptation and underscore the need and importance to develop interpreters’ unique creative strategies in the process of their adaptive professional maturation for the due carrying out of normal and special translation tasks under the conditions of operational military activities abroad. A detailed review of the scientific sources is carried out concerning research into definitions of linguistic terms such as: “adaptation,” “speech adaptation,” “speech strategies.” The author’s definition of the core of the term “Functional speech adaptation” is given and its main differences are outlined versus the definitions of the linguistic categories “adaptation” and “pragmatic adaptation” proposed by Russian linguistic theorists earlier. The most effective strategies for interpreting are reviewed, viz.: implementation of an interpreter’s anticipation, a strategy for target text forming from the ground of precision information, and a strategy for source text segmentation into minimal translation cells. The study applies the methods of definitional analysis, comparative analysis of theoretical principles with their generalization, theoretical synthesis of the concepts’ definitions, linguistic description method and linguistic modeling. The results of the conducted research make a significant contribution to studying functional speech adaptation of military interpreters in the implementation of interpreting and translation tasks on the foreign military sub-languages material. Moreover, the results of the study can be used for future research purposes of translation studies, theoretical and applied linguistics.

Current State, Needs, and Opportunities for Wearable Robots in Military Medical Rehabilitation and Force Protection.

Despite advances in wearable robots across various fields, there is no consensus definition or design framework for the application of this technology in rehabilitation or musculoskeletal (MSK) injury prevention. This paper aims to define wearable robots and explore their applications and challenges for military rehabilitation and force protection for MSK injury prevention. We conducted a modified Delphi method, including a steering group and 14 panelists with 10+ years of expertise in wearable robots. Panelists presented current wearable robots currently in use or in development for rehabilitation or assistance use in the military workforce and healthcare. The steering group and panelists met to obtain a consensus on the wearable robot definition applicable for rehabilitation or primary injury prevention. Panelists unanimously agreed that wearable robots can be grouped into three main applications, as follows: (1) primary and secondary MSK injury prevention, (2) enhancement of military activities and tasks, and (3) rehabilitation and reintegration. Each application was presented within the context of its target population and state-of-the-art technology currently in use or under development. Capturing expert opinions, this study defines wearable robots for military rehabilitation and MSK injury prevention, identifies health outcomes and assessment tools, and outlines design requirements for future advancements.

The state of scientific research of militia activity in Ukraine during the period of partial liberalisation of the political regime in the USSR (1953–1962)

The state of scientific research of militia activity in Ukraine during the period of partial liberalisation of the political regime in the USSR (1953–1962)

GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY RESOURCES: RECONSIDERING SECURITY AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL

The article analyses the impact of the russian-Ukrainian war on global energy markets as a trigger for rethinking the general context of energy security. Based on the latest scientific research, the author considers energy security issues' shifting from isolated aspects such as supply chain stability to an integrated geoeconomic approach. The article presents the factors that caused the national subjects' volatility regarding energy security depending on the energy market structure, relations between consumers and producers, supply and demand trends, technological changes, and readiness for potential energy supply crises or price shocks. The author's special attention is focused on the ties between energy resources and the military dimension, namely: 1) energy militarization as a cause of military actions; 2) energy resources as a secondary element of war; 3) energy profits as a source of financing armed conflicts. Against the background of increased strategic competition, most countries are leaning towards alternative spaces for developing joint political decisions, such as the friend-shoring concept, which signals a new form of protectionism for geopolitical reasons and the formation of potential chokepoints in supply chains. However, a transnational energy platform can catalyse the synergistic potential of allies, reduce security risks, and minimize supply disruptions due to political and economic influences. The success of a full-fledged launch of a transnational platform on energy security will depend on attractiveness strategies for "resourceful" but politically neutral countries; unification of production standards between participants; and the degree of reducing supply chain vulnerability relative to the participation costs.

A Military Audio Dataset for Situational Awareness and Surveillance

Audio classification related to military activities is a challenging task due to the high levels of background noise and the lack of suitable and publicly available datasets. To bridge this gap, this paper constructs and introduces a new military audio dataset, named MAD, which is suitable for training and evaluating audio classification systems. The proposed MAD dataset is extracted from various military videos and contains 8,075 sound samples from 7 classes corresponding to approximately 12 hours, exhibiting distinctive characteristics not presented in academic datasets typically used for machine learning research. We present a comprehensive description of the dataset, including its acoustic statistics and examples. We further conduct a comprehensive sound classification study of various deep learning algorithms on the MAD dataset. We are also releasing the source code to make it easy to build these systems. The presented dataset will be a valuable resource for evaluating the performance of existing algorithms and for advancing research in the field of acoustic-based hazardous situation surveillance systems.

THE ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF SMALL RIVERS IN UKRAINE UNDER CONDITIONS OF INTENSIVE WAR IMPACT

Aquatic ecosystems are perpetually exposed to anthropogenic sources of pollution, wherein the quality of subterranean and surface waters undergoes influence from both natural and anthropogenic processes. This interaction results in environmental predicaments and, occasionally, environmental crises. Small rivers, in particular, bear a pronounced impact from human interventions on the environment. The investigation undertaken by the researchers commenced in 2021 with the primary objective of scrutinizing the ecological condition of the Irsha River. Regrettably, due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation, the regions through which the river courses were temporarily occupied, subjecting it to considerable anthropogenic disturbances. Specifically, two bridges spanning the Irsha River in the Malyn area were demolished, and military operations transpired along the riverbanks, leading to the accumulation of damaged military equipment. Consequently, it was deemed imperative during the course of our study to conduct an analysis of the natural water in the Irsha River subsequent to the military activities. The outcomes of a comprehensive assessment of surface water quality, employing a graphical method, revealed that, during the period of 2021-2022, the river waters within the Irsha River exhibited an overall failure to meet quality standards in both monitoring locations. Elevated values of Maximum Permissible Concentration (MPC) exceeding the norm were noted for the Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) indicator, the dissolved oxygen indicator, as well as the general iron and iron of permanganate oxidizability parameters in both samples. The highest degree of pollution was discerned in the Malyn Reservoir, whereas the Irsha Reservoir manifested comparatively lower pollution levels in the aquatic environment.

The Perception of the “Migrant Threat” in Croatian Gorski Kotar by the Locals and Migrants through the Prism of Visibility and Invisibility

Focused on the aftermath of the so-called migrant crisis of 2014 in the Croatian region of Gorski Kotar, this paper presents an analysis of the processes involved in constructing the idea of the “migrant threat” both among the locals whose settlements, towns and villages lie on the path of the people on the move, as well as among the migrants themselves traversing that area. More specifically, we analyze juxtaposed perceptions of threat. For the locals, the threat seems to stem from the visibility of migrants (their presence in a sparsely populated region) layered with the perception of their own invisibility as a result of economic and infrastructural disregard by the state, as well as of the lack of greater military activities at the border. For the migrants, the threat comes from the possibly highly dangerous visibility enforced by different kinds of surveillance technologies, making them vulnerable to documented strategies of expulsion. The paper employs ethnographic fieldwork and a visual analysis of migrant self-representation online to underline the importance of studying migration from an integrated point of view which includes both local and migrant visual and narrative articulation of the same (border) space between the Schengen area and “the other space”. Based on interviews, a review of the socio-political, economic, and cultural aspects of migration today, and a visual analysis of migrant self-representation practices, we show that different spheres of migration (in)visibility cannot be separated.

European security and Finland’s policy during the Russian aggression against Ukraine

The purpose of this article is to analyze the influence of Finland on regional policy of NATO and the Russo-Ukrainian war. The article explores political, economic and military aspects of Finland and Ukraine in the light of the Russian aggression while considering their relationships and foreign policy goals on a regional level. The author draws attention to various aspects of Helsinki domestic and foreign policy that is directed to set a balance in the region and, at the same time, to support Kyiv militarily and economically in confrontation with Moscow. Finland’s active policy of promoting stability can be described as a two-track policy, whereby EU membership and intensified military cooperation with Western partners provide a basis for the maintenance and development of relations with Russia. The author focused on energy resources and its importance for Finland that has a long history of energy trade with Russia. The trade is practically one-directional, as Finland lacks domestic fossil fuel reserves in comparison with its substantial demand for energy, whereas Russia has significant export volumes. Along with the above-mentioned issues, the author is observing aggressive Russian military activities in the Baltic Sea region. Despite peaceful relationships with Finland, Moscow does not mind to remind neighboring countries who calls the tune in the region. Pursuing this purpose, Russia increases military activity in the Baltic Sea region with relatively frequent airspace and territorial water violations. As a result, there is a risk that collisions or provocations might lead to a rapid and uncontrolled escalation. So, Finland finds its important to keep open channels for political dialogue and to seek ways to re-activate existing confidence-building measures. Finland-NATO relationships are taken into consideration as well. The author described the process of Finland’s accession to the alliance. After almost 30 years of close partnership with NATO, Finland joined the Alliance on April 4, 2023. Its partnership with NATO was historically based on its policy of military non-alignment, which changed following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Following Russia’s aggression, Ukraine has requested materiel assistance from the EU and NATO member countries. To date, Finland has donated 23 defence materiel packages to Ukraine. The combined value of all defence materiel packages submitted so far is now over EUR 2 billion.

Computer Simulators - Modern Tools For Training Future Officers And Sergets

The purpose of this article was to consider the prerequisites for the emergence, stages and prospects for the development of military computer games in the Republic of Kazakhstan, used in combat training of the armed forces of a number of states, as well as an attempt to conduct a comparative assessment of various military simulators using developed military computer programs. Simulators of military weapons at the present stage play an important role in preparing future reserve officers and sergeants in the Republic of Kazakhstan for real combat operations. They are computer programs or physical devices that help simulate various aspects of military combat activities. One of the main advantages of using computer simulations is the ability to create realistic combat conditions without having to risk lives and resources. Future officers and NCOs can enhance their professional skills through simulations to develop strategic and tactical skills, make real-time decisions and coordinate the actions of their units. In our opinion, the use of military weapons simulators provides an opportunity to gain excellent skills in working with military weapons, reduces training time for beginners, improves reactions and quick decision-making, and of course reduces the risk of injury during training. So, simulators of weapons and military equipment will contribute to the training of future reserve officers and sergeants, helping to develop their skills, leadership qualities and make effective decisions in combat situations. A modern approach effectively complements traditional military training.

The environment as the first victim: The impacts of the war on the preservation areas in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has had a devastating impact on the environment. Military actions have caused the release of hazardous substances into the environment, such as pollutants and toxic chemicals, that have contaminated the water, soil, and air, posing a threat to both human health and the environment. This has resulted in widespread destruction and contamination of natural habitats and resources and has disrupted wildlife populations and ecosystems. The impacts of military activity on the soils of protected areas are particularly critical, as they are the basis of biotic and landscape diversity and require special management and scientifically based monitoring measures even in peaceful conditions. In this context, this communication paper aims to provide an overview of the impacts of the war on the soils in four Ukrainian protected areas, namely Chornobyl Radiation and Ecological Biosphere Reserve; Desniansko-Starohutskyi National Nature Park; Holosiivskyi National Nature Park, and Hetmanskyi National Nature Park. To address these aspects, this paper combined GIS analysis and secondary data including soil samples obtained during field expeditions, to provide evidence of how ground battles, occupation, terrestrial land mines, and explosions can severely impact the soils. Practical and theoretical implications of the military actions are also discussed.

Enmity then empathy: How militarisation facilitated collaborative but exclusive exchange in Sierra Leone's Ebola response.

In the autumn of 2014, with the 2013-16 West Africa Ebola epidemic spiralling out of control, the United Kingdom announced a bespoke military mission to support-and in some ways lead-numerous Ebola response functions in Sierra Leone. This study examines the nature and effect of the civil-military relationships that subsequently developed between civilian and military Ebola response workers (ERWs). In total, 110 interviews were conducted with key involved actors, and the findings were analysed by drawing on the neo-Durkheimian theory of organisations. This paper finds that stereotypical opposition between humanitarian and military actors helps to explain how and why there was initial cooperative and collaborative challenges. However, all actors were found to have similar hierarchical structures and operations, which explains how and why they were later able to cooperate and collaborate effectively. It also explains how and why civilian ERWs might have served to exclude and further marginalise some local actors.

CURRENT STATE AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF THE SOY MARKET IN UKRAINE

The growth of the population in the world provides increased demand for soy and its processing products. Because in low-income countries, soy and its processing products are used as a cheap vegetable protein for human nutrition, and in developed countries - as a valuable protein raw material in animal feed. The article calculates the cost of 1 kg of raw protein in protein feeds of plant and animal origin. The cost of vegetable feed per 1 kg of protein is 1.5-3.5 times lower than the cost of animal feed. The dynamics of global soybean production are shown, which indicates that in 2023/24 it was about 395 million tons. The main soybeanproducing countries are Brazil, the USA, and Argentina, whose share in the total world production is more than 80%. The dynamics of soybean production and processing in Ukraine is presented. The largest soybean processors in Ukraine are such companies as Bunge, AdamPolSoya, Cargill, Kreativ OEP, Kyiv-Atlantic, Royal Taste, Vinnytsia OEP and others. The soybean market in Ukraine demonstrates significant success both in cultivation and in export and processing. Despite the difficult conditions caused by military actions and economic challenges, Ukrainian farmers were able to reach historical highs in the production and export of soybeans, ensuring high product quality and competitive prices on the world market. Soy is an export-oriented crop, about ? of which is delivered abroad in the form of raw materials or processed products. The largest importers of Ukrainian soybeans are the European Union, Egypt and Turkey. In connection with the innovations in the supply of soybeans to the EU, soybean producers must not only grow (use of high-quality, certified seed material, mineral fertilizers, general production and administrative costs), but also have a certificate of traceability and confirmation of the absence of deforestation throughout the production chain. Since the violation of EUDR provisions can lead to serious consequences and sanctions, namely fines of up to 4% of the total annual turnover of the enterprise for the previous financial year, confiscation of products, temporary exclusion from procurement procedures and access to public funding, including tender procedures and subsidies

The Impact of Commercial Military Actors on Armed Conflict Termination, 1990–2010

Abstract For several decades, the rate of civil war onset has outpaced the rate of conflict termination leading to a “relentless accumulation of ongoing civil wars” (Brandt). The deployment of commercial military actors (CMAs), i.e., private military and security companies and mercenaries, has been considered by some observers as an opportunity to put a halt to this trend, and end a war by writing a cheque. Others are more skeptical and consider CMAs to rather aggravate crises. The argument put forward in this investigation is that a cheque issued early in the conflict facilitates termination, while a later one does not. In the initial state of the conflict, contestants are unprepared to fight, lack capability, and are vulnerable to defeat. However, due to their own weakness, contestants are frequently unable to exploit the opportunity. A CMA intervention early in the conflict can remedy a client's weakness and enable exploitation of the opponent's weakness, and, in turn, conflict termination becomes more likely. The overall results show that CMA intervention within the first year of the conflict is associated with an increased risk of termination as opposed to later or no intervention. The investigation employs Cox proportional hazard models to test the influence of CMAs on conflict termination, and draws on our newly developed Commercial Military Actor Database, which includes PMSC and mercenary deployments in all civil wars between 1980 and 2016.

The Role of the Supreme Defense Council of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in the Aggression against the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina

In this paper, we analyze the role and activities of the Supreme Defense Council (SDC) of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) according to the Constitution of FRY from 1992. The decision to establish the FRY, encompassing Serbia and Montenegro, as well as the provinces of Kosovo and Vojvodina, represented a continuation of the political and territorial restructuring of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRJ), as well as a basis for further military and political actions aimed at realizing expansionist project. Through the establishment of the SDC and its role in managing the military, especially during the period of aggression, it is evident how political decisions directly influenced military operations, as well as the international position and sanctions that followed in response to the aggressive policy of the FRY. SDC sessions were important for making decisions on military issues, including the appointment, promotion, and dismissal of officers, as well as decisions on military activities. Analysis of SDC session transcripts reveals details about FRY's military involvement in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the formation of the so-called Army of Republika Srpska (VRS). SDC members, the President of FRY, and the Presidents of Serbia and Montenegro, along with other attendees including the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff of the Yugoslav Army (VJ), actively participated in military matters and decision-making. This paper also explores the role of FRY in the wars in the former Yugoslavia during the early 1990s, with a particular focus on its relationship with the self-proclaimed Republika Srpska (RS) and participation in the aggression against the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Through the lens of logistical, military, and comprehensive support provided by FRY, including attempts to conceal the involvement of military personnel through the 30th Personnel Center, we shed light on its direct involvement in military operations that had a decisive impact on the course of the war. Despite efforts to conceal the role of FRY and its structures in the aggression against the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, documents and SDC transcripts reveal enough evidence confirming FRY's crucial role in the preparation, support, and execution of aggression against the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina through RS. The SDC organized and supported activities aimed at supporting the VRS and other military formations, often with a conspiratorial approach. Discussions at SDC sessions covered funding for the VRS, logistics, organization of soldier training, and defense strategy. Military operations, as well as political and military relations within Bosnia and Herzegovina, were particularly analyzed. „Controversial topics“ such as arming the population in Serbia and crimes committed against Bosniaks in Sandžak and Bosnia and Herzegovina were also discussed at the sessions. Relations with the political leaderships of RS and the Republic of Serbian Krajina (RSK), as well as reactions to losses and defeats, were also important topics at SDC sessions. The sessions also included analysis of political and military events and presentations of the views of FRY President Slobodan Milošević on peace negotiations, military operations, and territorial goals achieved. SDC transcripts provide insight into Slobodan Milošević's acknowledgment of the involvement of the State Security Service (SDB) in the formation, arming, and support of „paramilitary units“ sent to Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In addition to the direct involvement of VJ in the aggression, plans for joint military operations were extensively documented, aiming to create a „united state of the Serbian people“. Key figures, such as Ratko Mladić, who were in VRS, remained members of VJ even after the aggression. The SDC continued to exist until 2001 but lost its significance compared to the period from its establishment to the end of 1995.