Mild Climate Change Research Articles

Contrasting Responses of Spring and Summer Potato to Climate Change in South Korea

This paper assessed the effects of climate change and planting date adjustment on spring and summer potato in South Korea for the period 2061–2090. The study applied the SUBSTOR-Potato model and outputs of 24 general circulation models to capture future variability in climate conditions for four shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway scenarios. Without planting date adjustment, tuber yield was projected to increase by approximately 20% for spring and summer potato, indicating that the CO2 fertilization effect would offset the adverse effect of rising temperature. The effect of planting date adjustment was significant only for spring potato, where overall climate change impact with the optimized planting date was approximately +60%. For spring potato, the effects of rising temperature were bidirectional: temperature increases early in the year extended the growing season, whereas the higher temperature increases in June under the most severe climate change condition accelerated leaf senescence and reduced tuber bulking rate. Based on these results, different adaptation strategies could be established for spring potato for different climate change conditions. For example, developing frost-tolerant cultivars would continue to be recommended to plant earlier under the mild climate change conditions, whereas breeding mid-late maturity cultivars with high-temperature tolerance would be needed to delay senescence and enhance late tuber growth under the severe climate change conditions. Unlike spring potato, the breeding goal for summer potato of increasing high-temperature tolerance holds across all climate change conditions. Finally, these optimistic results should be interpreted with caution as the current model does not fully capture the effect of high-temperature episodes and the interactive effect between CO2 and temperature, which may reduce beneficial projected climate change impacts.

Impact of climate change on coastal water quality and its interaction with pollution prevention efforts

The impact of climate change on nearshore coastal water quality and its interaction with pollution prevention efforts (e.g., the development of green and gray water infrastructure) still lack systematic investigation. This study performed a holistic analysis of the impact of climate change on the salinity and concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll a (Chl.a) in Shenzhen Bay between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, the two most developed megacities in South China, based on three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality modeling. The major study findings were as follows. First, Chl.a was the most sensitive parameter, and its bay-wide average concentration in 2100 was predicted to be approximately 13% and 46% higher than those in 2015 under mild and rapid climate change scenarios, respectively. Second, sea level rise was found to be a major driver of all four water quality parameters, while temperature and radiation mainly influenced Chl.a and precipitation mainly influenced nutrients. Third, water quality responses to climate change were highly heterogeneous over the bay. Even under a mild climate change scenario, the highest location-specific changes (2100 vs. 2015) in salinity and TN, TP and Chl.a concentrations were projected to be approximately 21%, 19%, 25%, and 65%, respectively. Fourth, changes in seasonal variation due to climate change may lead to an enhanced ecological risk of algal blooms. Finally, the effect of reducing TN and TP concentrations by proposed water infrastructure development was found to be significantly weakened (nearly 40% and 20% for TN and TP, respectively, under a mild climate change scenario), while the negative effect (i.e., increase in the Chl.a concentration) was notably accelerated. Regional cooperation is critical for protecting the water quality of the bay, particularly under climate change. The insights obtained in this study are applicable to other coastal water zones around the world with similar socioeconomic backgrounds and climatic conditions.

A Review Paper on Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change

The urgency of tackling agricultural adaptation is heightened by the significant trends in climate change currently visible, the probability of additional changes, and the growing magnitude of possible climatic effects more logically. There are many possibilities for adaption accessible for minor alterations to current agricultural systems, frequently; current climate risk management is modified. We demonstrate that putting these ideas into action is likely to affect some agricultural systems that will benefit from mild climate change. However, their efficacy is limited in situations that are more complex. Climate change is becoming more severe. As a result, additional systemic resource adjustments are required. Targeted diversification, for example, must be addressed when allocating resources of lives and production systems. We believe that obtaining increased adaptation activity will require climate change integration climate change-related problems with additional risk factors with other policy domains, such as variability and market risk, and other policy domains, such as long-term development. Dealing with the numerous obstacles to effective adaptation will require a multifaceted and dynamic approach.

Projected impacts of climate change on snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province, China.

Assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate‐related threats. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt model) to assess potential changes in suitable snow leopard (Panthera uncia) habitat in Qinghai Province, China, under a mild climate change scenario. Our results showed that the area of suitable snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province was 302,821 km2 under current conditions and 228,997 km2 under the 2050s climatic scenario, with a mean upward shift in elevation of 90 m. At present, nature reserves protect 38.78% of currently suitable habitat and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitat. Current areas of climate refugia amounted to 212,341 km2 and are mainly distributed in the Sanjiangyuan region, Qilian mountains, and surrounding areas. Our results provide valuable information for formulating strategies to meet future conservation challenges brought on by climate stress. We suggest that conservation efforts in Qinghai Province should focus on protecting areas of climate refugia and on maintaining or building corridors when planning for future species management.

Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Four Closely Related Orchis (Orchidaceae) Species

Long-term monitoring programs and population demographic models have shown that the population dynamics of orchids are to a large extent dependent on prevailing weather conditions, suggesting that the changes in climatic conditions can have far reaching effects on the population dynamics and hence the distribution of orchids. Although a better understanding of the effects of climate change on the distribution of plants has become increasingly important during the final years, only a few studies have investigated the effects of changing temperature and precipitation on the distribution of orchids. In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on the distribution of four terrestrial orchid species (Orchis anthropophora, Orchis militaris, Orchis purpurea and Orchis simia). Using bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios, habitat suitability, range shifts and the impact of different abiotic factors on the range of each species were modelled using Maxent. The results revealed an increase in suitable habitat area for O. anthropophora, O. purpurea and O. simia under each RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario, while a decrease was observed for O. militaris. Furthermore, all four of the orchids showed a shift to higher latitudes under the three RCPs leading to a significant range extension under mild climate change. Under severe climate change, a significant decline in the distribution area at the warm edge of their distributions was observed. Overall, these results show that mild climate change may be beneficial for the studied orchid species and lead to range expansion. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as all species also showed pronounced declines at lower latitudes when temperature increases were larger than 4 °C.

Modeling the species distribution of Caucasian pit viper (Gloydius halys caucasicus) (Viperidae: Crotalinae) under the influence of climate change

During recent years, the effects of climate change on various biological and ecological aspects of the species have been discussed in several litterateurs. The aim of this study was to reveal the effect of climate change on the extent and suitability of the Gloydius halys caucasicus habitats at present time and future. So that, 50 presence points and 19 bioclimatic variables were used. To compare the effects of global warming and climate change over the extent andsuitability of habitats, future bioclimatic variables were used in two mild climate change (PCR2.6) and severe (PCR8.5) scenarios in species distribution modeling. The results show that due to warming process of the planet and its growing trend in the future, the extent of suitable habitats of Caucasian pit viper is declining. Due to the fact that most of the suitable habitats of Caucasian pit viper are outside the protected areas, comprehensive studies are needed to plan and introduce new protected areasin future.

Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and ‘attractiveness’ across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century

In the past, human migrations have been associated with climate change. As our civilizations developed, humans depended less on the environment, in particular on climate, because technological and economic development in the span of human history allowed us to adapt to and overcome environmental discomfort. Asian Russia (east of the Urals to the Pacific) is known to be sparsely populated. The population is concentrated along the forest-steppe in the south, with its comfortable climate and thriving agriculture on fertile soils. We use current and predicted climate scenarios to evaluate the climate comfort of various landscapes to determine the potential for human settlers throughout the 21st century. Climate change scenarios are taken from 20 CMIP5 general circulation models. Two CO2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP 2.6 representing mild climate change and RCP 8.5 representing more extreme changes, are applied to the large subcontinental territory of Asian Russia. The ensemble January and July temperature anomaly means and annual precipitation are calculated with respect to the baseline 1961–1990 climate. Three climate indices, which are important for human livelihood and well-being, are calculated based on January and July temperatures and annual precipitation: Ecological Landscape Potential, winter severity, and permafrost coverage. Climates predicted by the 2080s over Asian Russia would be much warmer and milder. Ensemble means do not show extreme aridity. The permafrost zone is predicted to significantly shift to the northeast. Ecological Landscape Potential would increase 1–2 categories from ‘low’ to ‘relatively high’ which would result in a higher capacity for population density across Asian Russia. Socio-economic processes and policy choices will compel the development that will lead to attracting people to migrate throughout the century. Therefore, understanding ecological landscape potential is crucial information for developing viable strategies for long-term economic and social development in preparation for climate migration and strategic adaptation planning.

Predicted 2100 climate scenarios affects growth and skeletal development of tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum) larvae.

Climate changes driven by greenhouse gas emissions have been occurring in an accelerated degree, affecting environmental dynamics and living beings. Among all affected biomes, the Amazon is particularly subjected to adverse impacts, such as temperature rises and water acidification. This study aimed to evaluate the impacts of predicted climate change on initial growth and development of an important Amazonian food fish, the tambaqui. We analyzed growth performance, and monitored the initial osteogenic process and the emergence of skeletal anomalies, when larvae were exposed to three climate change scenarios: mild (B1, increase of 1.8°C, 200 ppm of CO2); moderate (A1B, 2.8°C, 400 ppm of CO2); and drastic (A2, 3.4°C, 850 ppm of CO2), in addition to a control room that simulated the current climatic conditions of a pristine tropical forest. The exposure to climate change scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) resulted in low survival, especially for the animals exposed to A2, (24.7 ± 1.0%). Zootechnical performance under the B1 and A1B scenarios was higher when compared to current and A2, except for condition factor, which was higher in current (2.64 ± 0.09) and A1B (2.41 ± 0.14) scenarios. However, skeletal analysis revealed higher incidences of abnormalities in larvae exposed to A1B (34.82%) and A2 (39.91%) scenarios when compared to current (15.38%). Furthermore, the bone‐staining process revealed that after 16 days posthatch (7.8 ± 0.01 mm total length), skeletal structures were still cartilaginous, showing no mineralization in all scenarios. We concluded that tambaqui larvae are well‐adapted to high temperatures and may survive mild climate change. However, facing more severe climate conditions, its initial development may be compromised, resulting in high mortality rates and increased incidence of skeletal anomalies, giving evidence that global climate change will hamper tambaqui larvae growth and skeletal ontogeny.

Sustainability of culturally important teepee poles on Mescalero Apache Tribal Lands: Characteristics and climate change effects

Integrating traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) with western science and modeling tools can enhance not only the delivery of culturally important species, but also community support and overall effectiveness of management. This paper presents a case study of co-producing usable science integrating TEK on a culturally important species with a modeling tool, Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (C-FVS). The Mescalero Apache tribe (southwestern USA) conduct a coming of age ceremony for young women who follow a traditional way of life. In order to conduct this ceremony, tall, thin teepee poles made from Douglas-fir trees are needed. Douglas-fir trees capable of producing teepee poles are a culturally important resource for the Mescalero Apache tribe. We interacted with medicine people, tribal members, and forest managers to gain insight on characteristics of teepee pole stands. We established thirty, 400 m2 circular plots with nested 100 m2 regeneration plots in teepee pole producing stands to characterize composition, structure, age, growth rates, and fuels. Teepee pole producing stands occupy an elevation range from 2012 to 2561 m, slopes of 3–43%, and aspects from NW to NE. The stands consist of dense, relatively old trees dominated by Douglas-fir, with other species of trees usually present as a minor component. Douglas-firs in teepee pole producing stands averaged 1255 ± 99 trees per ha (TPH), basal area 31.7 ± 1.5 m2/ha, and 18.5 ± 0.5 cm quadratic mean diameters (QMD). Douglas-fir trees in teepee pole producing stands were most commonly 75–100 years old with diameters at breast height (DBH) ranging from 5.1 to 25.4 cm. In order to assess future trajectories of teepee pole stands, we applied C-FVS which incorporates the effects of climate change scenarios over the next 100 years. We compared three standard scenarios ranging from moderate to severe climate change: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. Simulated future forests at the current plot locations even under the most mild climate change scenario (RCP 4.5) did not contain Douglas-fir after a century of modeling. Complete forest mortality was predicted under RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. Comparing bioclimatic niche modeling of Douglas-fir with downscaled future climate scenarios indicated that the species would have to be planted at least 305 m higher to maintain 21st century viability under RCP 4.5 and 6.0, or at least 610 m higher under RCP 8.0. The characterization of current teepee pole producing stands and simulations of future effects of climate change provide useful information to the Mescalero Apache Tribe to support management decisions on how they would like to preserve this cultural important resource.

Assessing the need and potential of assisted migration using species distribution models

Assisted migration (AM) has been suggested as a management strategy for aiding species in reaching newly suitable locations as climate changes. Species distribution models (SDMs) can provide important insights for decisions on whether to assist a species in its migration; however, their application includes uncertainties. In this study, we use consensus SDMs to model the future suitable areas for 13 vascular plant species with poor dispersal capacity. Based on the outputs of SDMs under different climate change scenarios and future times, we quantify the predicted changes in suitable area by calculating metrics that describe the need and potential for migration. We find that, by the end of the 21st century, one of the species would benefit from AM under mild climate change, seven under moderate change, and for 12 out of 13 species studied AM appears to be a relevant conservation method under strong climate change. We also test the effect of different modeling attributes on the metrics and find little variation between SDMs constructed using different combinations of modeling methods and variable sets. However, the choice of climate variables had a larger influence on the level of the metrics than did the modeling method. We therefore suggest that the choice of climate variables should receive ample attention when measuring climate change threat using SDMs and that experiments aiming to uncover critical environmental factors for individual species should be extensively conducted. This study illustrates that dispersal assistance may be needed for many species under a wide range of possible future climates.

Is green infrastructure an effective climate adaptation strategy for conserving biodiversity? A case study with the great crested newt

Increasing the amount of green infrastructure, defined as small-scale natural landscape elements, has been named as a climate adaptation measure for biodiversity. While green infrastructure strengthened ecological networks in some studies, it is not known whether this effect also holds under climate change, and how it compares to other landscape adaptation options. We assessed landscape adaptation options under scenarios of climate change for a dispersal-limited and climate-sensitive species: great crested newt, Triturus cristatus. A spatially-explicit modelling framework was used to simulate newt metapopulation dynamics in a case study area in the Netherlands, under alternative spatial configurations of 500 ha to-be-restored habitat. The framework incorporated weather-related effects on newt recruitment, following current and changing climate conditions. Mild climate change resulted in slightly higher metapopulation viability, while more severe climate change (i.e. more frequent mild winters and summer droughts) had detrimental effects on metapopulation viability. The modelling framework revealed interactions between climate and landscape configuration on newt viability. Restoration of ponds and terrestrial habitat may reduce the negative effects of climate change, but only when certain spatial requirements (habitat density, connectivity) as well as abiotic requirements (high ground water level) are met. Landscape scenarios where habitat was added in the form of green infrastructure were not able to meet these multiple conditions, as was the case for a scenario that enlarged core areas. The approach allowed a deduction of landscape design rules that incorporated both spatial and abiotic requirements resulting in more effective climate adaptation options.

Is Forest Restoration in the Southwest China Karst Promoted Mainly by Climate Change or Human-Induced Factors?

The Southwest China Karst, the largest continuous karst zone in the world, has suffered serious rock desertification due to the large population pressure in the area. Recent trend analyses have indicated general greening trends in this region. The region has experienced mild climate change, and yet significant land use changes, such as afforestation and reforestation. In addition, out-migration has occurred. Whether climate change or human-induced factors, i.e., ecological afforestation projects and out-migration have primarily promoted forest restoration in this region was investigated in this study, using Guizhou Province as the study area. Based on Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, we found general greening trends of the forest from 2000 to 2010. About 89% of the forests have experienced an increase in the annual NDVI, and among which, about 41% is statistically significant. For the summer season, more than 65% of the forests have increases in summer NDVI, and about 16% of the increases are significant. The strongest greening trends mainly occurred in the karst areas. Meanwhile, annual average and summer average temperature in this region have increased and the precipitation in most of the region has decreased, although most of these changes were not statistically significant (p > 0.1). A site-based regression analysis using 19 climate stations with minimum land use changes showed that a warming climate coupled with a decrease in precipitation explained some of the changes in the forest NDVI, but the results were not conclusive. The major changes were attributed to human-induced factors, especially in the karst areas. The implications of an ecological afforestation project and out-migration for forest restoration were also discussed, and the need for further investigations at the household level to better understand the out-migration–environment relationship was identified.

Cooperative Extension and Climate Change: Successful Program Delivery

The politically charged debate surrounding climate change poses a challenge to outreach and education. A 2011 survey revealed that NC Extension professionals have approached climate change programming cautiously, citing lack of audience interest as the primary barrier—perhaps because the Southeast region has experienced relatively mild climate change impacts, to date. We propose a tiered approach to effectively communicate climate change adaptation strategies to agriculture and natural resource Extension clients: Extension should provide climate science information to early adopters and emphasize risk management of specific threats to clients not convinced about climate change, focusing on local solutions and familiar management tools.

Mercury uptake within an ice algal community during the spring bloom in first‐year Arctic sea ice

In this study, we examine mercury bioaccumulation by a first‐year sea‐ice (FYI) algal community in the western Canadian Arctic during the spring of 2008. Total mercury concentration in bottom sea‐ice particulate ([PHg]T) ranged 0.004–0.022 µg/g dw and was limited by the amount of mercury available for uptake when the spring bloom commenced. Mercury in ice algae originated from a combination of brine and seawater as sources, while atmospheric mercury depletion events did not appear to significantly contribute as a source in a coupled manner. We show that the bottom sea‐ice brine presents a chemically and biologically unique niche from which inorganic Hg makes its way into the food web. Once incorporated into algae, mercury can be transported spatially and trophically within the ecosystem by a range of processes including grazing, resuspension, remineralization, and sedimentation. Ice algae contribute 10–60% of the annual primary production in the Arctic and are thought to become even more productive and abundant under a mild climate change scenario. Replacement of multiyear ice with FYI in the Beaufort Sea alone could result in an additional influx of ∼48 kg/yr of particle bound Hg. Further studies are thus warranted to elucidate mechanisms by which mercury transformation processes and transfer into the Arctic marine food web are impacted by the interaction between sea ice, brine, and seawater.

Process studies on the ecological coupling between sea ice algae and phytoplankton

The seasonal dynamics of pelagic and sea ice communities are closely related in ice-covered waters, however, modelling works that analyse such interactions are scarce. We use the Biogeochemical Flux Model in Sea Ice (BFM-SI) coupled to the pelagic Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) in a study area in Greenland to quantitatively investigate: (1) the significance of photoacclimation/photoadaptation strategies of autotrophs, (2) the fate of the sea ice biomass in case of algae seeding, algae aggregation and at different mixed layer depths and (3) the changes in community production under a climate change scenario. The results show that sea ice algae need to be both photoacclimated and photoadapted to the sea ice environment in order to grow, while phytoplankton may adopt different strategies for optimising their growth. The seeding of the phytoplankton bloom shows to be driven, both in timing and magnitude, by the viability of sea ice algae and by the degree of aggregation of algae released from the ice, which also affects the sinking rate to the sea floor. Under a mild climate change scenario (SRES B2, 2071–2090) the sea ice community is projected to be generally more productive, whereas phytoplankton growth will be reduced because the melt of sea ice will occur earlier in the season when light is less favourable to sustain the growth. While it is generally anticipated that the melting of multi-year ice in the Arctic Ocean will cause an increase in marine production, this study shows that seasonal ice-covered seas in the Northern hemisphere may actually be less productive and may shift to more oligotrophic conditions within the next 100 years.