Abstract
Long-term monitoring programs and population demographic models have shown that the population dynamics of orchids are to a large extent dependent on prevailing weather conditions, suggesting that the changes in climatic conditions can have far reaching effects on the population dynamics and hence the distribution of orchids. Although a better understanding of the effects of climate change on the distribution of plants has become increasingly important during the final years, only a few studies have investigated the effects of changing temperature and precipitation on the distribution of orchids. In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on the distribution of four terrestrial orchid species (Orchis anthropophora, Orchis militaris, Orchis purpurea and Orchis simia). Using bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios, habitat suitability, range shifts and the impact of different abiotic factors on the range of each species were modelled using Maxent. The results revealed an increase in suitable habitat area for O. anthropophora, O. purpurea and O. simia under each RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario, while a decrease was observed for O. militaris. Furthermore, all four of the orchids showed a shift to higher latitudes under the three RCPs leading to a significant range extension under mild climate change. Under severe climate change, a significant decline in the distribution area at the warm edge of their distributions was observed. Overall, these results show that mild climate change may be beneficial for the studied orchid species and lead to range expansion. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as all species also showed pronounced declines at lower latitudes when temperature increases were larger than 4 °C.
Highlights
Understanding the various factors that limit the distribution of plant and animal species is a central theme in ecology and evolutionary biology [1,2]
A significant decline in the distribution area at the warm edge of their distributions was observed. These results show that mild climate change may be beneficial for the studied orchid species and lead to range expansion
It is hard to generalize from these case studies, these results suggest that climate warming may have beneficial effects on the population dynamics of orchids at the cold edge of their distribution ranges
Summary
Understanding the various factors that limit the distribution of plant and animal species is a central theme in ecology and evolutionary biology [1,2]. The topic has gained momentum as predicted changes in climatic conditions will most likely shift species’ distributions and ecology [3,4]. The shifts in distribution are not necessarily associated with range contractions, because not all species will immediately show declines at rear edges [5,6,7,8], suggesting that mild climate change may be favorable for many species. Understanding the processes governing population demography can help to forecast which species can resist range shifts, Diversity 2020, 12, 312; doi:10.3390/d12080312 www.mdpi.com/journal/diversity
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