MIKE SHE Research Articles

On the sensitivity of modelled groundwater recharge estimates to rain gauge network scale

Rainfall is often the largest component of the water budget and even a small uncertainty percentage may lead to challenges for accurately estimating groundwater recharge as a calculated residual within a water budget approach. Watersheds are a common scale for water budget assessment, and rainfall monitoring networks typically have widely spaced gauges that are frequently outside the watershed of interest. The effects of rainfall spatial variability and uncertainty on groundwater recharge estimates have received little attention and may influence water budget-derived recharge estimations. In the present study, the influence of spatial density in rainfall measurement on the numerical estimation of groundwater recharge was investigated through a series of modelling scenarios utilizing field data obtained from progressively denser rain gauge networks associated with a typical watershed in southern Ontario. The uncertainty of the recharge component of the water budget was used as a metric to aid interpretation of results. The scenarios employed networks composed of: 1) one nearby national weather station (within 3 km), 2) a regional network of six stations (within 30 km), and 3) a local network of six stations, five of which were within the selected watershed. A coupled and fully distributed hydrologic model (MIKE SHE) was used in the scenario analysis and applied to the Alder Creek watershed on the Waterloo Moraine near Kitchener-Waterloo, Ontario. Rainfall showed poor spatial correlation, even at the daily time scale. Average annual results over a three-year period showed that recharge rates varied up to 140 mm per year (~40% of previously estimated annual recharge) among scenarios, with differences between scenarios greater than the water budget uncertainty during one of the years. These findings suggest that the availability of local rainfall measurements has the potential to influence the calibration of transient watershed hydrogeological models.

Suitability of a Coupled Hydrologic and Hydraulic Model to Simulate Surface Water and Groundwater Hydrology in a Typical North-Eastern Germany Lowland Catchment

Lowland river basins are characterised by complex hydrologic and hydraulic interactions between the different subsystems (aerated zone, groundwater, surface water), which may require physically-based dynamically-coupled surface water and groundwater hydrological models to reliably describe these processes. Exemplarily, for a typical north-eastern Germany lowland catchment (Tollense river with about 400 km²), an integrated hydrological model, MIKE SHE, coupled with a hydrodynamic model, MIKE 11, was developed and assessed. Hydrological and hydraulic processes were simulated from 2010 to 2018, covering strongly varying meteorological conditions. To achieve a highly reliable model, the calibration was performed in parallel for groundwater levels and river flows at the available monitoring sites in the defined catchment. Based on sensitivity analysis, saturated hydraulic conductivity, leakage coefficients, Manning’s roughness, and boundary conditions (BCs) were used as main calibration parameters. Despite the extreme soil heterogeneity of the glacial terrain, the model performance was quite reasonable in the different sub-catchments with an error of less than 2% for water balance estimation. The resulted water balance showed a strong dependency on land use intensity and meteorological conditions. During relatively dry hydrological years, actual evapotranspiration (ETa) becomes the main water loss component, with an average of 60%–65% of total precipitation and decreases to 55%–60% during comparatively wet hydrological years during the simulation period. Base flow via subsurface and drainage flow accounts for an approximate average of 30%–35% during wet years and rises up to 35%–45% of the total water budget during the dry hydrological years. This means, groundwater is in lowland river systems the decisive compensator of varying meteorological conditions. The coupled hydrologic and hydraulic model is valuable for detailed water balance estimation and seasonal dynamics of groundwater levels and surface water discharges, and, due to its physical foundation, can be extrapolated to analyse meteorological and land use scenarios. Future work will focus on coupling with nutrient transport and river water quality models.

Catchment-Scale Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Hydrologic Modelling Using Conceptual and Physically Based Models: A Model Comparison Study

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the use of an externally linked (MOBIDIC-MODFLOW) and a physically based (MIKE SHE) surface water-groundwater model to capture the integrated hydrologic responses of the Thomas Brook catchment, in Canada. The main objective of the study is to investigate the effect of simplification in representation of the hydrological processes in MOBIDIC-MODFLOW on its simulation accuracy. To this aim, MOBIDIC and MODFLOW were coupled in order to sequentially exchange the groundwater recharge and baseflow discharges within each computation time step. Using identical sets of hydrogeological properties for the two models, the coefficients of the gravity and capillary reservoirs in MOBIDIC were calibrated so as to closely predict the hydrological budget of the catchment simulated with MIKE SHE. The simulated results show that the two models can closely replicate the observed water table responses at two monitoring wells. However, in very shallow water table locations, the instantaneous response of the water table was not precisely captured in MOBIDIC-MODFLOW. Additionally, the simplified conceptualization of the unsaturated flow in MOBIDIC-MODFLOW resulted in overestimated groundwater recharge during spring and underestimation during summer. Moreover, the computational efficiency of MOBIDIC-MODFLOW, as compared to MIKE SHE, along with less required input data, confirms its potential for regional scale groundwater-surface water interaction modelling applications.

Groundwater Zoning for the North-West Region of Bangladesh

For proper planning and management of groundwater of an area, zoning of groundwater is essential which can be done by using modeling tool. Groundwater zoning is very important, especially for irrigation project as well as drinking needs. So, the present study aims to assess the zoning of groundwater at the Joypurhat district located in the north-west region of Bangladesh. MIKE SHE modelling tool has been used for this study. A groundwater flow model has been developed with calibrating for the period of 2001 to 2006 and validating for 1995 to 2000. As Hand Tube Well (HTW) and Shallow Tube Well (STW) operate under suction mode and they can operate with full efficiency when groundwater table remains within 6m from ground surface, this depth has been considered as the safe yield criteria. Groundwater zoning has been done based on the safe yield criteria. At the end of April groundwater level goes below 6m from the ground surface in Kali, Khetlal, Akkelpur and Panchbibi upazila. These areas are considered as deep zone. On the contrary, Joypurhat Sadarupazila is considered as the shallow zone because groundwater level remains within the 6 m from the ground surface in this upazila.

Modeling the Effects of Anthropogenic Land Cover Changes to the Main Hydrometeorological Factors in a Regional Watershed, Central Greece

In this study, the physically-based hydrological model MIKE SHE was employed to investigate the effects of anthropogenic land cover changes to the hydrological cycle components of a regional watershed in Central Greece. Three case studies based on the land cover of the years 1960, 1990, and 2018 were examined. Copernicus Climate Change Service E-OBS gridded meteorological data for 45 hydrological years were used as forcing for the model. Evaluation against observational data yielded sufficient quality for daily air temperature and precipitation. Simulation results demonstrated that the climatic variabilities primarily in precipitation and secondarily in air temperature affected basin-averaged annual actual evapotranspiration and average annual river discharge. Nevertheless, land cover effects can locally outflank the impact of climatic variability as indicated by the low interannual variabilities of differences in annual actual evapotranspiration among case studies. The transition from forest to pastures or agricultural land reduced annual actual evapotranspiration and increased average annual river discharge while intensifying the vulnerability to hydrometeorological-related hazards such as droughts or floods. Hence, the quantitative assessment of land cover effects presented in this study can contribute to the design and implementation of successful land cover and climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.

Urban drainage models for green areas: Structural differences and their effects on simulated runoff

Mathematical stormwater models are often used as tools for planning and analysing urban drainage systems. However, the inherent uncertainties of the models must be properly understood in order to make optimal use of them. One source of uncertainty that has received relatively little attention, particularly for increasingly popular green areas as part of urban drainage systems, is the mathematical model structure. This paper analyses the differences between three different widely-used models (SWMM, MOUSE and Mike SHE) when simulating rainfall runoff from green areas over a 26-year period. Eleven different soil types and six different soil depths were used to investigate the sensitivity of the models to changes in both. Important hydrological factors such as seasonal runoff and evapotranspiration, the number of events that generated runoff, and the initial conditions for rainfall events, varied significantly between the three models. MOUSE generated the highest runoff volumes, while it was rather insensitive to changes in soil type and depth. Mike SHE was mainly sensitive to changes in soil type. SWMM, which generated the least runoff, was sensitive to changes in both soil type and depth. Explanations for the observed differences were found in the descriptions of the mathematical models. The differences in model outputs could significantly impact the conclusions from studies on the design or analysis of urban drainage systems. The amount and frequency of runoff from green areas in all three models indicates that green areas cannot be simply ignored in urban drainage modelling studies.

Analysis of Water Management Scenarios Using Coupled Hydrological and System Dynamics Modeling

The North China Plain (NCP) has been affected by severe water scarcity over the past several decades. To address this issue, several water management plans have already been launched. Among them, the new South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) draws the most attention. However, the effectiveness of the SNWDP is yet to be evaluated. In the present study, we developed a coupled hydrological and system dynamics (SD) model to analyze water management scenarios for the NCP: S1: business as usual, S2: less agricultural water, S3: more domestic and industrial water reuse, S4: SNWDP, and S5: combined efforts. The impact of climate change has been accounted for in all scenarios. The SD model was based on VENSIM, and the hydrological model was based on the MIKE SHE code. The results indicated that the groundwater development in the NCP will not be sustainable without exploiting the full potential of the SNWDP resource. However, the SNWDP alone can only lessen the water crisis, it is not able to stop the groundwater storage from further declining. Solving the water scarcity problem in the NCP will require a combination of highly reduced water use and a continued water supply from the SNWDP. Our results also indicated that innovative water saving technologies are urgently needed in the restructuring of the industrial sector. Furthermore, the study illustrated an added challenge to water management since the uncertainty range on climate change impacts are shown to be of the same magnitude as the impacts of combined management measures. Therefore, it requires great caution when making the future water management strategies in the NCP.

Study on availability of groundwater resources in Selangor state of Malaysia for an efficient planning and management of water resources

Abstract Groundwater has become an important source of water to meet the increasing requirement for domestic, industrial, and agricultural needs. The study was formulated to assess the availability of groundwater resources in Selangor State, Malaysia. An integrated MIKE SHE and MIKE 11-based surface water–groundwater interaction model was developed to fulfill the study objectives. Model results illustrated that groundwater flows from the eastern part of the hilly region to the western part and ultimately discharges into the sea. The study also revealed that Sungai Langat, Sungai Klang, and Sungai Selangor receive water from groundwater and do not feed the groundwater. Approximate potential groundwater resources based on water balance study varies from 860–960 million liter per day (MLD), 630–690 MLD, 810–870 MLD to 630–690 MLD for Langat basin, Klang basin, Selangor basin, and Bernam basin, respectively. Impacts due to extreme dry condition showed that groundwater table declined about 0.5–3 m in most of the area. However, groundwater level for the major portion of Selangor State will drop to about 0–1 m for increased abstraction due to changed land-use pattern. Study findings may be used for a holistic and comprehensive management of groundwater resources for sustainable development in Selangor State, Malaysia.

Nitrate leaching losses from two Baltic Sea catchments under scenarios of changes in land use, land management and climate.

Pollution with excess nutrients deteriorate the water quality of the Baltic Sea. The effect of combined land use and climate scenarios on nitrate leaching and nitrogen (N) loads to surface waters from two Baltic Sea catchments (Norsminde in Denmark and Kocinka in Poland) was explored using different models; the NLES and Daisy models for nitrate leaching, and MIKE SHE or MODFLOW/MT3DMS for N transport. Three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5) defined change in land use and agricultural activities. The climate change scenarios covered 2041-2060 compared with 1991-2010 under RCP8.5, applying four different climate models. Increases in predicted N-load from climate change vary from 20 to 60% depending on climate model. SSPs moderate these N-load changes with small changes for SSP1 to large increases for SSP5, with greater increases for Norsminde than Kocinka due to land use differences. This stresses needs for new measures and governing schemes to meet sustainability targets.

Preliminary Research and Application of MIKE SHE Model in Jialingjiang River Basin

Introduce the model structure, principle and characteristic of MIKE SHE hydrological model. Advances in research and application of MIKE SHE model are summarized in 3 aspects: applicability study of the model, basic process research of the model and further application research of the model. Probes into the modelling and application process of MIKE SHE model in Jialingjiang river basin. The development direction of MIKE SHE model in the future is analysed and forecasted, according to the research progress of MIKE SHE model in China.

Impacts of environmental stressors on nonpoint source pollution in intensively managed hydrologic systems

Agricultural practices intended to increase productivity can adversely affect our soil and water resources. Expected changes in climate and other social pressure are anticipated to exacerbate these impacts jeopardizing the sustainability of the agro-ecosystems. Watershed Management Practices (WMPs) are meant to achieve a rational use of resources as well as enhance ecosystem resilience to climate change. However, the effectiveness of WMPs depends on the complex interactions between processes occurring across the watershed. The objective of this study was to simulate the impacts of WMPs and projected climate on the sediment and nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) stream loads in an intensively managed watershed. The modeling framework was developed with the physically-based distributed model Mike SHE for the Upper Sangamon River Basin (USRB), an agricultural watershed in central Illinois. The fate and transport of sediment and NO3-N in the watershed and rivers was simulated using a generic advection-dispersion equation (ADE) with NO3-N and sediment as the main species. Results showed that non-structural WMPs, such as crop rotation and cover crops, presented the highest reductions of simulated NO3-N and sediment load, respectively, while structural WMPs had higher area-efficiency performance. On the other hand, climate conditions had a strong impact on the transport of both pollutants due to water fluxes alterations especially for a future dry climate scenario. Sediment transport was shown to be more sensitive to climate given that rainfall is one of the main drivers of the erosion processes. Outcomes from this research will give a more comprehensive approach toward understanding the impacts of environmental stressors at a watershed scale, and how they may be propagated to ecological systems.

Integrated hydrological modelling of surface water and groundwater under climate change: the case of the Mygdonia basin in Greece

Abstract Lakes Volvi and Koronia are located in the Mygdonia basin and constitute the second and fifth largest natural lakes in Greece, respectively. The lakes along with the Mygdonia basin aquifer have undergone severe quantitative and qualitative degradation, while Lake Koronia has been totally depleted in recent years. In this study, a fully integrated hydrological analysis of the Mygdonia basin for historical and future periods is carried out. Future climatic data were derived and analyzed from a Regional Climate Model, while the implications of climate change on the water balance of both lakes and the Mygdonia basin aquifer until 2100 were projected by developing a modelling system which includes coupled hydrological and hydraulic models, such as UTHBAL, MIKE SHE, MIKE HYDRO River and the MIKE HYDRO Basin. The results indicated that the precipitation is expected to decrease by 17%, the temperature to increase by 2.90 °C and as a result, the surface runoff is projected to decrease by 21% and the groundwater recharge to decrease by 38% in the Mygdonia basin at the end of the century. The above changes would have a direct negative impact on the Lakes Koronia and Volvi and the Mygdonia basin aquifer future water balance necessitating adaptation measures.

Assessment of regional inter-basin groundwater flow using both simple and highly parameterized optimization schemes

The need for regional-scale integrated hydrological models for the purpose of water resource management is increasing. Distributed physically based coupled surface-subsurface models are usually complex and contain a large amount of spatio-temporal information that leads to a relatively long forward runtime. One of the main challenges with regard to regional-scale inverse modeling relates to parameterization and how to adequately exploit the information embedded in the existing observational data while avoiding parameter identifiability issues. This study examined and compared the calibration of a “highly parameterized” model with a “classical” unit-based parameterization scheme in which the dominant geological features were assumed to be known. The physically based coupled surface-subsurface model MIKE SHE was used for conducting the study of five river basins (4,900 km2) in central Jutland in Denmark, characterized by heterogeneous geology and a considerable amount of groundwater flux across topographical catchment boundaries. The results indicated that introducing more flexibility in the parameter estimation process through a regularized approach significantly improved the model performance, in particular head and water balance errors. The highly parameterized calibration results additionally provided very useful insights into the model deficiencies in terms of conceptual model structure and incorrectly imposed boundary conditions. Furthermore, the results from data-worth analysis indicated that the highly parameterized model has more effectively utilized the information in the dataset compared to a traditional unit-based calibration approach.

Modelling of shallow water table dynamics using conceptual and physically based integrated surface-water–groundwater hydrologic models

Abstract. We present a new conceptual scheme of the interaction between unsaturated and saturated zones of the MOBIDIC (MOdello Bilancio Idrologico DIstributo e Continuo) hydrological model which is applicable to shallow water table conditions. First, MODFLOW was coupled to MOBIDIC as the physically based alternative to the conceptual groundwater component of the MOBIDIC–MODFLOW. Then, assuming a hydrostatic equilibrium moisture profile in the unsaturated zone, a dynamic specific yield that is dependent on the water table level was added to MOBIDIC–MODFLOW, and calculation of the groundwater recharge in MOBIDIC was revisited using a power-type equation based on the infiltration rate, soil moisture deficit, and a calibration parameter linked to the initial water table depth, soil type, and rainfall intensity. Using the water table fluctuation (WTF) method for a homogeneous soil column, the parameter of the proposed groundwater recharge equation was determined for four soil types, i.e. sand, loamy sand, sandy loam, and loam under a pulse of rain with different intensities. The fidelity of the introduced modifications in MOBIDIC–MODFLOW was assessed by comparison of the simulated water tables against those of MIKE SHE, a physically based integrated hydrological modelling system simulating surface and groundwater flow, in two numerical experiments: a two-dimensional case of a hypothetical watershed in a vertical plane (constant slope) under a 1 cm d−1 uniform rainfall rate and a quasi-real three-dimensional watershed under 1 month of a measured daily rainfall hyetograph. The comparative analysis confirmed that the simplified approach can mimic simple and complex groundwater systems with an acceptable level of accuracy. In addition, the computational efficiency of the proposed approach (MIKE SHE took 180 times longer to solve the three-dimensional case than the MOBIDIC–MODFLOW framework) demonstrates its applicability to real catchment case studies.

Spatial and temporal variability of groundwater recharge in a sandstone aquifer in a semiarid region

Abstract. With the aim to understand the spatial and temporal variability of groundwater recharge, a high-resolution, spatially distributed numerical model (MIKE SHE) representing surface water and groundwater was used to simulate responses to precipitation in a 2.16 km2 upland catchment on fractured sandstone near Los Angeles, California. Exceptionally high temporal and spatial resolution was used for this catchment modeling: hourly climate data, a 20 m×20 m grid in the horizontal plane, and 240 numerical layers distributed vertically within the thick vadose zone and in the upper part of the groundwater zone. The finest practical spatial and temporal resolutions were selected to accommodate the large degree of surface and subsurface variability of catchment features. Physical property values for the different lithologies were assigned based on previous on-site investigations, whereas the parameters controlling streamflow and evapotranspiration were derived from calibration to continuous streamflow at the outfall and to average hydraulic heads from 17 wells. Confidence in the calibrated model was enhanced by validation through (i) comparison of simulated average recharge to estimates based on the applications of the chloride mass-balance method to data from the groundwater and vadose zones within and beyond the catchment, (ii) comparison of the water isotope signature (18O and 2H) in shallow groundwater to the variability of isotope signatures for precipitation events over an annual cycle, and (iii) comparison of simulated recharge time series and observed fluctuation of water levels. The average simulated recharge across the catchment for the period 1995–2014 is 16 mm yr−1 (4 % of the average annual precipitation), which is consistent with previous estimates obtained by using the chloride mass balance method (4.2 % of the average precipitation). However, one of the most unexpected results was that local recharge was simulated to vary from 0 to >1000 mm yr−1 due to episodic precipitation and overland runoff effects. This recharge occurs episodically with the major flux events at the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone, as simulated by MIKE SHE and confirmed by the isotope signatures, occurring only at the end of the rainy season. This is the first study that combines MIKE SHE simulations with the analysis of water isotopes in groundwater and rainfall to determine the timing of recharge in a sedimentary bedrock aquifer in a semiarid region. The study advances the understanding of recharge and unsaturated flow processes and enhances our ability to predict the effects of surface and subsurface features on recharge rates. This is crucial in highly heterogeneous contaminated sites because different contaminant source areas have widely varying recharge and, hence, groundwater fluxes impacting their mobility.

Monitoring and modelling water quality of Loktak Lake catchment

Loktak Lake is an internationally important, Ramsar designated, fresh water wetland system in the state of Manipur, India. The lake has also been listed under Montreux Record on account of the ecological modifications that the lake system has witnessed over time. Discharges from nine rivers namely Khuga, Thongjaorok, Awang Khujairok, Nambol, Nambul, Imphal, Kongba, Iril, and Thoubal have a great impact on the habitats and the overall ecological status of the lake. Monitoring of water quality at the catchment scale can be considered as an essential step towards the eventual goal to design effective conservation and management practices for the entire Loktak Lake ecosystem. This article presents the status of nine rivers draining into the Loktak Lake and correlation with land use patterns which can be used as support for making sound decisions regarding the management of the lake ecosystems. Flows were modelled using a combination of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and MIKE SHE, abbreviated as hybrid SHE-SWAT. Water quality models were established using MIKE 11 ECO Lab. Water quality parameters such as biological oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen and water temperature were simulated. Water quality models were calibrated using available measured water quality data procured from State Pollution Control Board and validated using observed water quality collected during the field study.

Real-time simulation of surface water and groundwater with data assimilation

Data assimilation (DA) has proven to be a useful technique in real-time hydrological modeling and forecasting. Jointly assimilating both surface water and groundwater data has promising application value for hydrological simulations in areas where surface water and groundwater are closely linked; however, such studies have not been intensively reported. In addition, the role of the quality of precipitation forecast has not been fully addressed in real-time forecasting using a coupled surface water - groundwater model, where the model evaluation includes both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. In the present study, we use the MIKE SHE hydrological model code in conjunction with the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter DA technique. The study area is a small urbanized catchment in Denmark. The model is run in simulated real-time using historical numerical weather prediction forecasts. The results show that DA can significantly reduce model bias and thereby improve model performance for both surface water and groundwater simulations. Comparing the impact of DA and rainfall forecast quality, it is found that, for streamflow forecasts, the most important factor is the quality of the rainfall data; whereas for groundwater head forecasts, the initial state at time of forecast is more important. We also find that inclusion of rainfall forecast uncertainty may be important for simulating a single event, however, it is not vital if long-term average model performance is of interest.

Observational and predictive uncertainties for multiple variables in a spatially distributed hydrological model

AbstractIn this study, uncertainty in model input data (precipitation) and parameters is propagated through a physically based, spatially distributed hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE code. Precipitation uncertainty is accounted for using an ensemble of daily rainfall fields that incorporate four different sources of uncertainty, whereas parameter uncertainty is considered using Latin hypercube sampling. Model predictive uncertainty is assessed for multiple simulated hydrological variables (discharge, groundwater head, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture). Utilizing an extensive set of observational data, effective observational uncertainties for each hydrological variable are assessed. Considering not only model predictive uncertainty but also effective observational uncertainty leads to a notable increase in the number of instances, for which model simulation and observations are in good agreement (e.g., 47% vs. 91% for discharge and 0% vs. 98% for soil moisture). Effective observational uncertainty is in several cases larger than model predictive uncertainty. We conclude that the use of precipitation uncertainty with a realistic spatio‐temporal correlation structure, analyses of multiple variables with different spatial support, and the consideration of observational uncertainty are crucial for adequately evaluating the performance of physically based, spatially distributed hydrological models.

Impacts of future climate variability on hydrological processes in the upstream catchment of Kase River basin, Japan

The purpose of this study is to predict the hydrological responses to climate change in the upstream catchment of Kase River basin having an area of 225 km2 by using MIKE SHE model and GIS. Meteorological and hydrological data for the period of 5 years were available in Kase River basin. Average daily discharge data from 5-year period (1991–1995) were used for the calibration effort, and average daily discharge was measured at Kawakami station. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE = 0.588, suggests that the model can predict the runoff mechanism for different periods satisfactorily. To assess the climate change impacts, two scenarios were taken under consideration. The data generated from RCM 20 (Regional Climate Model) were utilized under scenario 1 to predict future period 2081–2100 in the river basin. On the other hand, CC-scenario 2 assumes an increase in average monthly air temperature about 3 °C and no change in precipitation in future at the end of twenty-first century. The results revealed that future climate variability under scenario 1 caused an increase of 408.16 mm in surface flow; 46.77 mm in terms of base flow and interflow; and an increase of 41.74 mm actual ET (evapotranspiration). The increase in surface runoff may be mostly due to increase in precipitation. Future climate variability under scenario 2 caused a decrease of 38.43 mm in surface flow; 2.25 mm in terms of base flow and interflow; and an increase of 46.62 mm actual ET. The decrease in surface runoff may be due to unchanged precipitation and increase in temperature.

Comparison of daily flows simulated for the year 2060 on the Kaczawa River for various scenarios of climate change by simple time series analysis

In this paper a time series analysis for daily flow simulations according three climate change scenario for Kaczawa River a left side tributary of the Odra River in south-west Poland is presented. The flow sequences were simulated using the hydrological model MIKE SHE and the spatial SWGEN meteorological data generator. Meteorological data for the hydrological model were generated based on data from 24 meteorological stations and 35-year daily data from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management of the National Research Institute (IMGW). Data were generated for future climate condition for 2060 according GISS Model E, HadCM3, and GFDL R15 scenarios as well for the present conditions. The year 2000 was used as a reference year. The results obtained on the basis of a simple time series analysis point to small changes in flows for current and simulated conditions for 2060 for the Kaczawa River.