Comparison of daily flows simulated for the year 2060 on the Kaczawa River for various scenarios of climate change by simple time series analysis

Leszek Kuchar,Slawomir Iwanski,Leszek Jelonek,Ewa Broszkiewicz-Suwaj,B Kaźmierczak,M Kutyłowska,U Miller,P Jadwiszczak

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/201910000041

Abstract

In this paper a time series analysis for daily flow simulations according three climate change scenario for Kaczawa River a left side tributary of the Odra River in south-west Poland is presented. The flow sequences were simulated using the hydrological model MIKE SHE and the spatial SWGEN meteorological data generator. Meteorological data for the hydrological model were generated based on data from 24 meteorological stations and 35-year daily data from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management of the National Research Institute (IMGW). Data were generated for future climate condition for 2060 according GISS Model E, HadCM3, and GFDL R15 scenarios as well for the present conditions. The year 2000 was used as a reference year. The results obtained on the basis of a simple time series analysis point to small changes in flows for current and simulated conditions for 2060 for the Kaczawa River.

Highlights

This work is a continuation of earlier studies on changes in the Kaczawa River flows simulated for various scenarios of climate change [14,15,16,17]
Flows were simulated for the year 2060 according to the three most likely scenarios GISS Model E, HadCM3, and GFDL R15 which are considered to comply with the new scenarios of Representative Concentration Routes (RCPs) 4.5 and 6.0
The rainfall-runoff MIKE SHE model was used in each year for the simulation a daily flow at discharge point

Summary

Introduction

This work is a continuation of earlier studies on changes in the Kaczawa River flows simulated for various scenarios of climate change [14,15,16,17]. Three selected SRES scenarios were adopted in the present study due to the extensive experience in generating meteorological data for these scenarios for the condition of Poland, as well as due to their high convergence with the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios [7, 8, 15]. The spatial SWGEN meteorological data generator was used, the MIKE SHE rainfall-outflow hydrological model and the operating scheme were consistent with earlier studies and described in [10, 13, 20, 16, 17]. Simulations were performed for the small tributary of the Odra (south-west region of Poland) due to the high quality of observational data and previous experience in hydrological modelling [17, 18, 25, 31]

Objectives

Results

Conclusion