Abstract
A new simulation of daily flow for Kaczawa River, south-west Poland for extra long series of generated meteorological data (comparing to previous research) and selected climate change scenarios are presented. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios vs. SRES are introduced for simulations. The flow simulation in the river catchment is made using MIKE SHE hydrological model while the multisite data are generated by spatial weather generator SWGEN. Simulations are done for 2040 and 2060 while the simulations for the year 2000 are used as a background. The large number of new simulated series determined by the lead time, three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), and number of generated years (1000 for each case) is equal to 7000 for a single station. Finally, Pdf function for flow is presented as well probability of exceedance of maximum flow.
Highlights
The future climate change may have a significant impact on the forthcoming hydrology in the river catchment, runoff response, and predictions [1, 3, 5, 8, 24, 25, 28, 33]
The simulations of daily runoff in the Kaczawa River catchment were done at discharge point in Piatnica
The number of simulations were determined by the time of horizon (2040, 2060 and 2000 as a background), three averaged climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), and number of generated years (1000) for each case, with total of 7000 (2x3x1000+1000) years
Summary
The future climate change may have a significant impact on the forthcoming hydrology in the river catchment, runoff response, and predictions [1, 3, 5, 8, 24, 25, 28, 33]. The daily flow simulation, seasonal extremes for future climate conditions given by different scenarios are important for the Polish rivers for several reasons [15, 17, 27]. The paper presents an example of new simulation of seasonal flow for the relative small catchment of Kaczawa River a left side tributary of the Odra River (Southwest region of Poland) for selected climate change scenarios is presented. Simulations extended study are compared to the earlier research [15, 16, 17]
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