Migration Outflow Research Articles

Демографические процессы в системе расселения северных районов Дальнего Востока (на материалах Амурской области)

Transformations taking place in the Russian Far East in the recent decades have been accompanied by a significant reduction in the population associated with the migration outflow and excess of the mortality rate over the birth rate, degradation of the existing settlement system. These trends are especially strong in the northern regions, as well as in the northern part of the territories and regions of the south of the region. The purpose of this work is to assess changes in demographic processes occurring in the settlements of municipalities of the Amur region, equated to the regions of the Far North, to determine the transformations taking place in the current settlement system for the period of 1989–2023. Analysis of the features of development of demographic processes in areas equated to the Far North, taking into account the characteristics of municipalities and the system of settlements that has developed during the development of economic activity, allows us to assess the possibilities of implementing program goals and prospects for the transformation of the settlement system. Assessment of the features of migration and natural movement of population in the municipalities of the north of the region, indicate decline of the population, degradation of its structure. The paper describes the dynamics of population change in settlements of various economic specialization, size and distance from the district center. The role of natural and climatic factors, the peculiarities of the organization of production in the extractive industries is determined. It is revealed that the emerging dynamics of demographic processes is determined by a combination of factors, among which. In addition to natural and climatic conditions, a significant role is played by the peculiarities of economic activity, the level of development of the complex of social infrastructure in settlements and settlement centers. Obtained results create informational basis for supplementing the developed programs of socio-economic development of municipalities of the northern territories with the definition of prospects for transformations at the level of individual settlements.

A Comparative Study on Migration Outflows and the Effects of Remittance Inflows Utilizing ArcGIS Mapping and Cluster Analysis

This study’s goal is to determine how remittances affect migration. Data from 45 nations is utilized for this analysis, which is separated into six regions: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), East Africa, South Africa, and West Africa. Utilizing descriptive statistics, significant graphs, and cluster analysis, this investigation is thoroughly and properly completed. The data displayed in ArcGIS maps also demonstrate the emigration and remittance outflows of several Asian and African nations between 1985 and 2017. By considering five clusters, cluster analysis is used to analyze similar nations in terms of how remittances affect migration. Three, eight, thirteen, nineteen, and three of these 45 nations make up Clusters I through V, respectively. Cluster V is made up of Bangladesh, India, and China. As II and III are the most distant clusters and II and III are the closest clusters, the cluster distance between III and V is low and between II and III is very high. The absence of time-series migration data is the key constant in this investigation. To achieve successful outcomes, simulation studies might be used. In order to obtain better results, anyone can also include discrimination analysis in their analysis. ArcGIS is also used to create visually appealing data distribution visualizations, such as maps, charts, and graphs with legends and annotations.

Экономическая конъюнктура в Дальневосточном федеральном округе в 2022 г.

The socio-economic situation in the Far Eastern Federal District in 2022 is analyzed by main types of economic activity and territorial administrative regions on the basis of operative statistical, analytical and expert information. The paper considers the problems of functioning of the real sector of the economy, social sphere, foreign economic activity in conditions of aggravation of the geopolitical situation and imposition of sanctions. The positive dynamics of investment activity was noted, but its growth rate was lower than the level of 2021. The main volume of investment resources is still accumulated in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Amur Oblast, where the implementation of major investment projects in the field of mining, transport, gas chemistry and energy continue. The decline in industrial output in the Far Eastern Federal District was caused by a drop in mining, especially in the Sakhalin Oblast, and a decline in the manufacturing sector. The construction sector of the Far Eastern Federal District demonstrated positive dynamics, connected, among other things, with the expansion of housing construction. But high rates of housing construction in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District cannot yet compensate for the chronic lag in housing commissioning per capita compared with the average Russian parameters. The transport complex of the Far Eastern Federal District has faced an increase in demand for transportation of foreign trade goods. This aggravated competition for access to the export-import infrastructure (railroads, seaports) with limited carrying capacity, increased shippers’ costs and uncertainty of transportation conditions. The negative impact of various restrictive measures did not affect the structure of Far Eastern Federal District foreign trade. A decrease in the physical volume of exports of fuel and energy products was leveled out by high world prices for energy resources. A decrease in economic activity was substantially influenced by a contraction of the domestic demand against the background of a decline in the population’s real income. The decline in the population, both due to natural decrease and migration outflow, remains an acute problem

Socio-economic factors of internal migration processes in the regions of Kazakhstan

The ongoing migration outflow from the regions of Kazakhstan to the cities of republican significance has been the subject of discussion in the scientific community and in the politics of Kazakhstan for many years. Measures taken by the state to create incentives to increase the migration attractiveness of the northern regions of the country have shown insufficient effectiveness. The solution of this urgent problem requires, first of all, the identification of the main causes of the current situation. The idea of this study is based on the assumption that migration is organically linked with socio-economic processes and is a kind of indicator of the socio-economic state of a particular region. The purpose of the study is to identify the determining socio-economic factors that affect the internal migration attractiveness of the regions of Kazakhstan. To achieve this goal, the work carried out a comparative analysis of the internal migration attractiveness of regions, compiled a rating of regions for this indicator, and also classified regions into such groups as attracting, holding and repelling migration. Based on the analysis of socio-economic indicators of the regions, a characteristic is given for each group of regions. The results obtained can be used in the development of policy documents for the region and the state as a whole in the field of migration.

Пенсионные системы государств Центральной Азии

Orientation towards the formation of the Eurasian socio-economic space implies the coordination of social policy, including in the field of pension provision. The harmonization of pension systems involves an analysis of the conditions for the formation and main parameters, the identification of common features and differences, and the determination of development prospects. The key problems of pension systems in the countries of Central Asia are the limited coverage of working people with pension insurance combined with a low basis for calculating pension contributions. The demographic factor plays a dual role in the functioning of pension systems. The countries of the region are characterized by a low proportion of older populations coupled with high rates of aging. At the present stage this can be seen as a demographic bonus, but in the long term it will become a serious challenge for the sustainability of pension systems. The situation is aggravated by the high migration outflow of the able-bodied population. One of the ways to increase the stability of pension systems can be to increase the role of state pensions – the development of the state system of social protection of pensioners as the main link in the pension system supplemented by private insurance and funded payments.

РОЗВИТОК РИНКУ ПРАЦІ УКРАЇНИ: ПРОБЛЕМИ ТА ВИКЛИКИ ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ СОЦІАЛЬНОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ В СУЧАСНИХ УМОВАХ

The challenges of the labour market development during wartime conditions are considered in the context of the need to provide social security in the period of post-war recovery. The main problems of the development of the Ukrainian labour market are analyzed which are associated with a significant migration outflow of the population as a result of the full-scale aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine, a reduction in the opportunities for creating new jobs, a decrease in the level of wages, and an increase in the quality of the country's educational and professional potential. Factors influencing the possibilities of hiring and professional development of the labour force at the enterprises have been identified. The current situation and expected predictions of enterprises regarding wage increases (by industries) are analyzed. It was grounded that the insufficiently high quality of vocational training limits the possibilities of realizing the educational and professional potential of the country. It has been proven that the aggravation of the risks of decrease of the quality of demographic reproduction of the population, the risks of unemployment, the risks of reducing the quality of educational potential, and the risks of poverty make it difficult to ensure the recovery of the country's economy on the basis of modernization and sustainable development in the future. The influence between challenges, risks of labour market development and threats to social security of the country is determined. The significant treats of the worsening of the educational potential's quality were defined. The directions of minimizing the negative impact of the implementation of problems and risks of the development of the labour market on the achievement of stability and stability of the socio-economic development of Ukraine under conditions of war and post-war recovery are substantiated. It was grounded the necessity of the development of the strategic ways of the realization of the employment policy, provision of the structural reconstruction of economy and employment, improvement of the business environment for the creation of the working places on the national and regional levels.

Демографическая динамика в дальневосточных субъектах РФ в 2013–2022 гг.

The article analyzes the indicators of demographic dynamics of the Far Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation for the period 2013–2022. It is shown that, despite the government policy measures taken for the socio-economic development of the Far East, the negative performance of demographic processes remains. Migration remains the main factor in reducing the demographic potential of the macroregion; it accounted for about 93% of the total population decline during the period under study. Only during the years of the COVID-19 pandemic did the scale of losses, due to natural population decline, exceed the balance of migration, but since 2022, migration decline has again taken first place. The negative balance of natural population movement was formed under the influence of the annually declining birth rate, the level of which did not cover the population loss as a result of mortality. Positive trends in reducing population mortality and increasing life expectancy in 2013–2019 were interrupted with the onset of the pandemic. The restoration of pre-pandemic levels of demographic indicators by 2023 has not occurred. It was determined to what extent structural factors influenced the decrease in the total fertility rate. The reduction in the indicator in 2022 relative to 2013 was due to a decrease in the intensity of childbirth and unfavorable changes in the age structure of the female reproductive contingent (reduction in the number of women aged 20–29 years). The structure of causes and age-related characteristics of mortality among the population of the Far Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation was studied. In the macroregion, an increased level of mortality remains as a result of external causes, from respiratory and digestive diseases, as well as tuberculosis. The mortality rates of the working-age population consistently exceed the Russian average, and during the study period the gap between them increased. It has been determined that the decrease in the intensity of migration outflow, and in some years the positive balance of migration in a few regions, is entirely due to the positive performance of migration from the CIS countries while maintaining the negative performance of interregional migration

ЦИФРОВИЗАЦИЯ ГОРОДСКОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ РОССИИ

As countries develop, the proportion of people living in megacities increases, and in the largest ones. Globally, the average proportion of the country’s population living in urban areas is only 34% in low-income countries and 71% in high-income countries. Agglomerations or megacities are large urbanized territories, usually consisting of a core and periphery, characterized by a high population density and a developed transport network. The increase in the burden on the infrastructure of the largest agglomerations is due to the continued influx of the Russian population. As a result of the overload of the transport infrastructure, environmental problems are becoming more acute, which leads to a deterioration in the health of the population and an increase in the costs of the healthcare system, an increase in the burden on the management system of the largest agglomerations. Compression of small and medium-sized cities: reduction of tax revenues while maintaining the burden on the city budget and infrastructure will not allow to qualitatively improve the standard of living of citizens. The growing gap in the quality of life and existing opportunities between the largest agglomerations and small and medium-sized cities may lead to an even greater migration outflow from the latter.

САНКЦИИ И СТРУКТУРНАЯ АДАПТАЦИЯ ЭКОНОМИКИ РОССИИ В ПОСТПАНДЕМИЙНЫЙ ПЕРИОД/Sanctions and structural adaptation of the Russian economy in the post-pandemic period

The author analyzes the features of the structural adaptation of the Russian economy in the context of sanctions restrictions, increasing shocks on the supply and demand side, their crisis imbalance, taking into account the unsus-tainable consumption model. Decisions in the field of monetary policy and regulation of the discount rate are substantiated, which become a complex derivative of the mobility of the commodity market situation, limited availability of imports, the developing process of reassembly of production chains and import substitution, as well as the inhibition of recovery growth due to mobilization shocks, migration outflow of labor resources and the persistent uncertainty of the geopolitical situation in the external contour of the economy. The tightening and expansion of sectoral sanctions against Russia in 2022 will sharply update and sharpen the key messages and conclusions of the author due to the more complex conditions of state support for sectoral import substitution programs, the need for an accelerated restructuring of production chains and a reversal of the commodity supply system of the economy from north to south and from west to east.

Impact of remittance inflows on the migration outflows of African countries: Statistical panel analysis

This article examines the statistical results for several African nations. The country with the highest migration rate in east Africa is Sudan, where there are about 0.24 million migrants every year. Seychelles has the fewest migrants, with only 5,000 people. Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda are the countries that get the most donations. South Africa is the nation in the South African area that receives the highest levels of emigration and remittances, with an emigration rate of 0.13 million and repatriated profits of 489.6 million US dollars. In Botswana, transfers and emigration are at their lowest levels. In our statistical analysis, the Hotelling test statistic shows the population mean vector with migration and remittances for various countries in East Africa, South Africa, and West Africa. It produces statistically significant results at the 5% level in MANOVA analyses for the equality of means test for the nations of all three regions. To construct a panel regression model on the data, the data analysis was assisted by the LM test statistic and a fixed-effect model. Panel data analysis can help identify the yearly average number of migrants and the amount of remittance in different respected regions. Migration has a significant impact on remittances, and the inability of time-series migration data to be time-series migrated is one of the study’s main constants. One can use a simulation study to get fruitful results.

STEAM-EDUCATION AS A MEANS TO ADAPT RUSSIAN ECONOMY TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS

The field of STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts and Mathematics) is one of the most promising in education, and these professionals are employed in high-tech and creative industries that determine the future of global economy. The paper presents a detailed analysis of this sphere based on original approaches, both in the Russian Federation at large and in its regions. In Russia more than half a million people are annually admitted to STEAM training courses for higher education programs. Contrary to the all-Russian trend of reducing the number of students, enrollment for these programs has been steadily growing. According to the latest data, about 36% of university graduates in Russia have a specialty within STEAM. For comparison, this share in South Korea, Singapore, and Germany is above 45%. The largest share of specialists is trained in Tomsk region, St. Petersburg, and Moscow. At the same time, the number of STEAM graduates decreased in 41 Russian regions. In 2022, therisks for STEAM industry in Russia increased markedly: there is a migration outflow of most qualified personnel, with declining domestic demand for them. Over six months from February to August 2022, the total number of vacancies in the Russian labor market decreased by 9%, while STEM - by 23% (IT - by 32.5%). This may affect the long-term scientific and technological development of the country: our calculations show the importance of STEAM for creating start-ups, increasing publication and innovative activity. The article concludeswith some measures for developing STEAM as a tool for long-term development and a way to adapt the country to external shocks.

Микродемографические процессы в аграрной области: точки роста и островки устойчивости. Тамбовская область, конец XX – начало XXI века

Importance. In modern conditions of depopulation and migration outflow of rural population it is important to study the facts of sustainable development of rural population and factors of such stability. Materials and methods. The research is based on the published and Internet statistical materials of the settlement level. A sample of several dozens of urban-type settlements and suburban rural councils located in rural areas is created as an object of study. Sociological materials on the issue of marriage of rural population are also involved. Results and Discussion. The research show that the population dynamics in the selected group of settlements at the beginning of the 21st century developed unevenly. Along with the reduction in the number of residents in most settlements and villages there were facts of the indicator growth due to migration inflow. The cases of population growth and decline in some segments of the last decades indicate the non-linearity of demographic processes. The revealed order of figures in the indicators of natural and migratory movement of residents of the studied settlements indicates the absence of extreme values. The study of the problem of economic employment of residents of suburban rural settlements and urban-type settlements show a considerable number of jobs to retain the population in these settlements. Conclusions. Demographic data at the micro-level do not allow us to speak about widespread depopulation and devastation of the rural population of the Tambov Region. But “islands of stability” and “growth points” should be studied more thoroughly, using interdisciplinary approaches of humanitarian, socio-political, natural and other exact sciences.

Factors Influencing the Increase in Online Purchases by Rural Women after the COVID-19 in Kazakhstan

In rural areas of Kazakhstan, there is a steady decline in the population due first to natural decline, migration outflow associated with a low quality of life, and access to resources, including the Internet. Rural women have similar spiritual values, social experience and lifestyles as urban women. This paper discusses an essential part of the problems associated with limited access to resources, namely digital resources and the Internet. The study was conducted based on structural and functional approaches using a wide range of analysis and evaluation methods. To answer the research questions, female respondents from all regions of Kazakhstan were interviewed. As a result, it got answers from 265 women with different levels of wealth and education. The survey was conducted between September 10 and October 10, 2022, as part of the research on the grant project on rural women's access to resources. Linear regression with categorical predictors will determine the main factors' influence on online shoppers' behaviour. In this paper, the influence of various factors of the respondents of women in Kazakhstan on the change in the number of purchases after the COVID-19 pandemic was investigated. The work used data from a sociological survey conducted on the territory of Kazakhstan among women. The results show that factors such as Internet literacy, family status, working from home, the amount of time to buy online and using recommendations in social networks significantly impact online purchases.

Migration processes in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania since 2018 early 2022

The issues of studying migration processes are particularly relevant at the present time. In this paper, the author tried to explore migration processes and analyze the impact of migration on the socio-demographic situation in the republic. The purpose of this study is to identify migration processes in North Ossetia-Alania from 2018 to early 2022. The author examined the impact of migration on socio-economic processes, statistical data on population migration, population statistics in North Ossetia-Alania and mortality and birth rate statistics, and many others. In this study, the following research methods are used: theoretical analysis of statistics for the Russian Federation and North Ossetia-Alania, the study of recent studies and publications on this topic. Currently, a big problem is the outflow of migrants in North Ossetia-Alania to other cities of the Russian Federation and the country. Young people tend to move to large cities in Russia or go to foreign countries where there are more opportunities for professional development and career growth. In 2022, the unemployment rate in North Ossetia-Alania decreased and 2 700 people were employed. Reduce the unemployment rate in the republic in 2022. succeeded thanks to the program "Promoting employment of the population" and national projects. There is also a difficult demographic situation in the republic. In recent years, the death rate has exceeded the birth rate. Migration processes do not contribute to population growth, since much more people leave the republic than come. In conclusion, the author proposed some measures to solve this problem.

Factors Influencing Post-Study Employment by International Graduates of Regional Universities (Case of Northwestern Federal District of the Russian Federation)

The article explores the factors of career mobility choice by international graduates of regional universities, which directly affect their employment in the regions. As a result of the analysis of foreign experience, the authors come to a conclusion that locally-trained international graduates’ employment is an effective tool for replacing the migration outflow from the periphery to megalopolises. A strong positive correlation is proved between the share of international graduates in the normalized student body and the rate of migration growth for the period 2015–2020 in the peripheral subjects in the Northwestern federal district of the Russian Federation. Eight variants of educational migrants’ migration trajectories are identified and described as a combination of two choices: educational and career mobility. Based on the generalization of Russian and foreign approaches, factors of international graduates’ career mobility choice at national, regional, sectoral, university, and individual levels are systematized. Within the online survey of international graduates of Russian regional universities, influence of factors of each level on the choice of a migration trajectory was determined, the influence of the experience of living in the region and studying at the university on changing the migration trajectory was shown. It has been proved that international graduates from the CIS and Baltic countries can make the greatest contribution to the regional economy of the Russian peripheral regions. Recommendations for executive authorities and universities have been developed to stimulate international graduates’ post-study employment in the region of study. As a direction for further research, it seems expedient to develop a model for determining the needs of regional economy in locally-trained international graduates, as well as to test such a model in the peripheral territorial subjects of the Russian Federation.

Quod vadis? The effect of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration in the MENA region

AbstractRecent trends in international migration reveal increasing migration outflows from Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. This development is accompanied by a massive rise in youth unemployment and a major increase in the young population in this region. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of migration patterns and analyses the interacting effect of the unfavourable combination of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration decisions. Based on an assessment of bilateral migration flows from 19 MENA to 34 OECD countries between 1995 and 2020, we find that youth unemployment plays a significant role in explaining emigration flows from MENA countries. We also find that the migration‐generating effect of youth unemployment is contingent upon demographic pressure in the youth cohorts and increases with an increasing number of youths.

The Impact of Shale Energy on Population Dynamics, Labor Migration, and Employment

This paper is designed to determine whether producing oil and gas via shale has an economically significant effect on population migration dynamics and on the labor market in terms of the number of employed individuals, the number of establishments, total wages, and average annual pay per person in twenty-six counties in Ohio and Pennsylvania, USA. The analysis incorporates migration inflow and outflow between producing and nonproducing counties. The results of the analysis show that the counties that engage in shale gas extraction saw a negative impact on net migration but a much larger positive impact on labor market outcomes. Specifically, the number of jobs is higher by 2.4%, the number of establishments is higher by 1.1%, total wages are 3% more and the average annual pay is 1.5% more in producing counties after shale. The analysis reveals a small but statistically significant negative impact on migration, as shale regions experienced some migration outflows.

Modeling and migration-based control of depopulation

This study deals with the problem of the population shrinking in habitats affected by aging and excessive migration outflows. First, a control-oriented population dynamics model was proposed that catches the effect of depopulation. The model also includes the effect of spatial interaction-driven migration flows on population size. The resulting model is a non-homogeneous ordinary differential equation. It includes such phenomena that are important from the control point of view, such as the influence of migration costs on population dynamics, the impact of aging on population size, or the effect of the habitats’ carrying capacity on migration flows. Based on the model, controllability conditions are formulated and a control strategy was developed that is meant to avoid the depopulation of the habitat. The control method acts on the migration costs to achieve the control goal and requires only population size measurements. Simulation measurements are presented in the paper to show the effectiveness of the proposed modeling and control methods.

Prospects of Integration of the Ukrainian Economy into the European Economic Area

The article examines the prospects for the integration of the Ukrainian economy into the European economic space. It has been established that Ukraine's accession to the EU would be beneficial not only for Ukraine, but also for the European Union itself. One obvious advantage is security: if Ukraine were not currently at war, Russian tanks would probably already be in Warsaw or Tallinn. In peacetime, there are many opportunities for cooperation. Obvious areas are food security and energy production; in addition, Ukraine has a lot of human capital and entrepreneurial talent, and it is quite developed in IT, mechanical engineering and other industries that require a high level of technical skills. Ukrainian culture is rich and original. However, not only Ukraine will change during the accession. The European Union itself will be reformed in response to new challenges.Existing agreements between Ukraine and the European Union have already contributed to significant trade flows. Accession will have greater implications for the free movement of capital and workers – investment inflows and migration outflows. These areas are likely to be the focus of negotiations.A certain accession agreement usually has transition periods, especially for full free movement of labor, and opt-out clauses. The essential difference will be that Ukraine will be granted the status of "member of the EU" and not associated or annexed status.The consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its request for membership in the European Union changed the role of international diplomacy. The European Union realized the need to strengthen its own security and solve internal problems - from the consequences of Brexit to solving the alleged violations of the rule of law by Hungary.The military incursions into Ukraine have become a catalyst for change across Europe, and this may be reflected in how the member states of the European Union and the European Commission deal with Ukraine's accession.

The Essence of Institutional Mechanisms of Population Adaptation and Assessment of their Effectiveness

The purpose of the study is to determine the level of effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation of the region. The relevance of the study is related to the problems of reflecting the essence of the institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation, which affect their effectiveness in the transition to dynamic development. It is assumed that the determination of the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation of the region is evaluated on the basis of characteristics of population reproduction, growth of value added and people’s standard of living. The interaction of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation with six institutional sectors of the economy is considered. The research methods are the theory and methodology of statistics, including the index and tabular method, grouping of data, series of dynamics and comparative estimates. To determine the essence of the institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation of the region, a statistical approach was used. The author gives an assessment of the level of effectiveness of the region according to 9 main quantitative and qualitative indexes that objectively reflect the general state of the economy, the standard of living of the population and the evolution of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation for the period 1990-2020.Research results: the concept of the institutional mechanism of the population adaptation is clarified as a set of consistent actions of socioeconomic institutions, ensuring their effective interaction through the implementation of formal and informal rules, norms and standards in order to improve the level and quality of life of the population. In this regard, a toolkit has been developed to determine the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation in terms of population reproduction, value-added growth, and the standard of living of the population. Over the past 30 years, there have been significant changes in many regions of the country regarding the use of institutional mechanisms for the population adaptation, which have contributed to improving the level of efficiency of business entities and revealing the characteristics of specific territories. However, in a number of regions of the country, including the Kurgan region, there is a significant decrease in the number and migration outflow of the population, real incomes of the population are slowly increasing.Conclusion: the use of the statistical approach makes it possible to determine not only the effectiveness of institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation, but also the effectiveness of the implemented development strategies for the future and the quality of the adopted decisions by management bodies. The interrelations of the used institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation with the level of economic potential of the territory are revealed. It is established that the population adapts faster to improved institutional mechanisms, while reducing social tension and increasing support for people in crisis situations. The main directions of further research on the problems of changes in the institutional mechanisms of the population adaptation and assessment of their effectiveness in the transition to dynamic development are substantiated.