Демографическая динамика в дальневосточных субъектах РФ в 2013–2022 гг.

Abstract

The article analyzes the indicators of demographic dynamics of the Far Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation for the period 2013–2022. It is shown that, despite the government policy measures taken for the socio-economic development of the Far East, the negative performance of demographic processes remains. Migration remains the main factor in reducing the demographic potential of the macroregion; it accounted for about 93% of the total population decline during the period under study. Only during the years of the COVID-19 pandemic did the scale of losses, due to natural population decline, exceed the balance of migration, but since 2022, migration decline has again taken first place. The negative balance of natural population movement was formed under the influence of the annually declining birth rate, the level of which did not cover the population loss as a result of mortality. Positive trends in reducing population mortality and increasing life expectancy in 2013–2019 were interrupted with the onset of the pandemic. The restoration of pre-pandemic levels of demographic indicators by 2023 has not occurred. It was determined to what extent structural factors influenced the decrease in the total fertility rate. The reduction in the indicator in 2022 relative to 2013 was due to a decrease in the intensity of childbirth and unfavorable changes in the age structure of the female reproductive contingent (reduction in the number of women aged 20–29 years). The structure of causes and age-related characteristics of mortality among the population of the Far Eastern subjects of the Russian Federation was studied. In the macroregion, an increased level of mortality remains as a result of external causes, from respiratory and digestive diseases, as well as tuberculosis. The mortality rates of the working-age population consistently exceed the Russian average, and during the study period the gap between them increased. It has been determined that the decrease in the intensity of migration outflow, and in some years the positive balance of migration in a few regions, is entirely due to the positive performance of migration from the CIS countries while maintaining the negative performance of interregional migration