Midtropospheric Ascent Research Articles

Global monsoon: Concept and dynamic response to anthropogenic warming

Monsoon has been studied for centuries, yet only recently have regional monsoons been recognized as a global system. This paper begins with a review of the concept of Global Monsoon and related debating issues. We argue that GM drives annual cycles of Hadley circulation, Intertropical Convergence Zone, and subtropical high and dry climate regions. Land monsoon rainfall (LMR) provides water resources for about 70% of the world’s population. Here we review the climate sensitivity of global and regional LMR to anthropogenic warming projected by models participating in phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), focusing on critical physical processes responsible for projected changes. In theory, regional mean LMR changes can be approximated by the changes in the product of the mid-tropospheric ascent and 850-hPa specific humidity, plus moderate contribution from evaporation. The greenhouse gases (GHGs) forcing increases moisture content but stabilizes the atmosphere; the two thermodynamic effects offset each other, resulting in a moderate thermodynamic impact on LMR. The GHGs-induced horizontally differential warming results in robust ‘‘northern hemisphere (NH)-warmer than- southern hemisphere (SH)’’, ‘‘land-warmer-than-ocean’’, and an El Nino–like warming pattern. The enhanced NH–SH thermal contrast will increase NH monsoon rainfall and reduce SH monsoon rainfall. The enhanced land–ocean thermal contrast will increase monsoon rainfall over the Asian–northern African monsoon regions. The projected eastern Pacific warming will reduce the North American monsoon. The Inter-model spread analysis suggests that the GHGs-induced circulation changes (dynamic effects) are primarily responsible for the regional differences. The last section discusses conceivable ways forward.

Kenyan Long Rains: A Subseasonal Approach to Process-Based Diagnostics

AbstractThe interannual variability, trends, and the mean climatology of East African long rains are difficult for models to simulate. This is in part because long rains do not respond in a simple way to large-scale modes of variability such as ENSO and because of interactions with complex topography. Here we focus on the Kenyan regional climate in the ERA-Interim dataset during the long rains to create a set of atmospheric diagnostics that can be applied to the evaluation of climate models. Subseasonal observed rainfall and reanalysis reveal that very wet seasons and very dry seasons develop differently at the beginning of the season. Subseasonal aggregation periods (days 60–80, 80–100, 90–120, 120–150) highlight local (e.g., midtropospheric ascent, moisture flux convergence in the lower to midtroposphere, and midtropospheric moisture) and large-scale (e.g., midtropospheric zonal winds over central Africa, upper-tropospheric velocity potential) diagnostics that are useful to evaluate model atmospheric circulation affecting Kenyan rainfall in mean and wet or dry extremes.

Future Changes and Controlling Factors of the Eight Regional Monsoons Projected by CMIP6 Models

AbstractAn accurate prediction of land monsoon precipitation (LMP) is critical for the sustainable future of the planet as it provides water resources for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here, we show that the ensemble mean of 24 CMIP6 (phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models projects that, under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP2–4.5) scenario, summer LMP will very likely increase in South Asia (~4.1% °C−1), likely increase in East Asia (~4.6% °C−1) and northern Africa (~2.9% °C−1), and likely decrease in North America (~−2.3% °C−1). The annual mean LMP in three Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions will likely remain unchanged due to significantly decreased winter precipitation. Regional mean LMP changes are dominated by the change in upward moisture transport with moderate contribution from evaporation and can be approximated by the changes of the product of the midtropospheric ascent and 850-hPa specific humidity. Greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced thermodynamic effects increase moisture content and stabilize the atmosphere, tending to offset each other. The spatially uniform increase of humidity cannot explain markedly different regional LMP changes. Intermodel spread analysis demonstrates that the GHG-induced circulation changes (dynamic effects) are primarily responsible for the regional differences. The GHGs induce a warm land–cool ocean pattern that strengthens the Asian monsoon, and a warm North Atlantic and Sahara that enhances the northern African monsoon, as well as an equatorial central Pacific warming that weakens the North American monsoon. CMIP6 models generally capture realistic monsoon rainfall climatology, but commonly overproduce summer rainfall variability. The models’ biases in projected regional SST and land–sea thermal contrast likely contribute to the models’ uncertainties in the projected monsoon rainfall changes.

Net Cloud Thinning, Low-Level Cloud Diminishment, and Hadley Circulation Weakening of Precipitating Clouds with Tropical West Pacific SST Using MISR and Other Satellite and Reanalysis Data

Daily gridded Multi-Angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) satellite data are used in conjunction with CERES, TRMM, and ERA-Interim reanalysis data to investigate horizontal and vertical high cloud structure, top-of-atmosphere (TOA) net cloud forcing and albedo, and dynamics relationships against local SST and precipitation as a function of the mean Tropical West Pacific (TWP; 120°E to 155°W; 30°S–30°N) SST. As the TWP warms, the SST mode (~29.5 °C) is constant, but the area of the mode grows, indicating increased kurtosis of SSTs and decreased SST gradients overall. This is associated with weaker low-level convergence and mid-tropospheric ascent (ω500) over the highest SSTs as the TWP warms, but also a broader area of weak ascent away from the deepest convection, albeit stronger when compared to when the mean TWP is cooler. These associated dynamics changes are collocated with less anvil and thick cloud cover over the highest SSTs and similar thin cold cloud fraction when the TWP is warmer, but broadly more anvil and cirrus clouds over lower local SSTs (SST < 27 °C). For all TWP SST quintiles, anvil cloud fraction, defined as clouds with tops > 9 km and TOA albedos between 0.3–0.6, is closely associated with rain rate, making it an excellent proxy for precipitation; but for a given heavier rain rate, cirrus clouds are more abundant with increasing domain-mean TWP SST. Clouds locally over SSTs between 29–30 °C have a much less negative net cloud forcing, up to 25 W m−2 greater, when the TWP is warm versus cool. When the local rain rate increases, while the net cloud fraction with tops < 9 km decreases, mid-level clouds (4 km < Ztop < 9 km) modestly increase. In contrast, combined low-level and mid-level clouds decrease as the domain-wide SST increases (−10% deg−1). More cirrus clouds for heavily precipitating systems exert a stronger positive TOA effect when the TWP is warmer, and anvil clouds over a higher TWP SST are less reflective and have a weaker cooling effect. For all precipitating systems, total high cloud cover increases modestly with higher TWP SST quintiles, and anvil + cirrus clouds are more expansive, suggesting more detrainment when TWP SSTs are higher. Total-domain anvil cloud fraction scales mostly with domain-mean ω500, but cirrus clouds mostly increase with domain-mean SST, invoking an explanation other than circulation. The overall thinning and greater top-heaviness of clouds over the TWP with warming are possible TWP positive feedbacks not previously identified.

Mesoscale Vertical Motions near Nocturnal Convection Initiation in PECAN

AbstractRadiosonde measurements from the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) 2015 field campaign are used to diagnose mesoscale vertical motions near nocturnal convection initiation (CI). These CI events occur in distinctly different environments including ones with 1) strong forcing for ascent associated with a synoptic cold front and midtropospheric short wave, 2) nocturnal low-level jets interacting with weaker quasi-stationary fronts, or 3) the absence of a surface front or boundary altogether. Radiosonde-derived vertical motion profiles in each of these CI environments are characterized by low- to midtropospheric ascent. The representativeness of these vertical motion profiles is supported by distributions of corresponding mesoscale averages from model-produced 0–6-h ensemble forecasts. Thermodynamic data from radiosondes are then analyzed along with selected model ensemble members to elucidate the role of the vertical motions on subsequent CI. In a case with strong forcing for mesoscale ascent, vertical motions facilitated CI by reducing convection inhibition (CIN). However, in the majority of cases, weaker but persistent vertical motions contributed to the development of elevated, approximately saturated layers with lapse rates greater than moist adiabatic. Such layers have negligible CIN and, thereby, the capacity to support CI even without strong finescale triggering mechanisms in the environment. This aspect may distinguish much central U.S. nocturnal CI from typical daytime CI. The elevated unstable layers occur in disparate large-scale environments, but a common aspect of their development is mesoscale ascent in the presence of warm advection, which results in upward transports of moisture (contributing to local increases of moist static energy) with adiabatic cooling above.

Global Relationship between Fronts and Warm Conveyor Belts and the Impact on Extreme Precipitation*

Abstract Extratropical cyclones are responsible for many extreme precipitation events in the midlatitudes. Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) and fronts are known to be related to the uplift and hence the precipitation within cyclones. The authors have investigated the link between WCBs and fronts and how such a link impacts the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. WCB trajectories have been calculated from the ERA-Interim dataset, and low-level (below 790 hPa) and midlevel (790–600 hPa) WCBs have been considered. These have been matched with objectively identified fronts (i.e., characterized by an overlap of WCB and front somewhere along the front). About 10% of cold fronts, 8% of warm fronts (identified using a thermal criterion), and 15% of wind fronts (identified using a wind shift method) are matched with WCBs, while up to 70% of WCBs are matched with fronts. Some WCBs, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, are not matched with either type of front (up to 70% east of Australia). The relationship between WCBs and fronts does not change much between the low levels and midlevels, indicating that the WCBs are already strongly associated with fronts during the lowest part of their ascent, although in the Southern Hemisphere the WCBs are more often related to warm fronts during their midtropospheric ascent. In parts of the midlatitudes, more than 60% of extreme precipitation events match either cold or warm fronts, and up to 90% of these have matched WCBs. Fronts associated with WCBs are found to be between 2 and 10 times more likely to produce extreme precipitation events than fronts without associated WCBs.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation diversity and Southern Africa teleconnections during Austral Summer

A wide range of sea surface temperature (SST) expressions have been observed during the El Nino–Southern Oscillation events of 1950–2010, which have occurred simultaneously with different global atmospheric circulations. This study examines the atmospheric circulation and precipitation during December–March 1950–2010 over the African Continent south of 15 $$^{\circ }$$ S, a region hereafter known as Southern Africa, associated with eight tropical Pacific SST expressions characteristic of El Nino and La Nina events. The self-organizing map method along with a statistical distinguishability test was used to isolate the SST expressions of El Nino and La Nina. The seasonal precipitation forcing over Southern Africa associated with the eight SST expressions was investigated in terms of the horizontal winds, moisture budget and vertical motion. El Nino events, with warm SST across the east and central Pacific Ocean and warmer than average SST over the Indian Ocean, are associated with precipitation reductions over Southern Africa. The regional precipitation reductions are forced primarily by large-scale mid-tropospheric subsidence associated with anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere. El Nino events with cooler than average SST over the Indian Ocean are associated with precipitation increases over Southern Africa associated with lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation and mid-tropospheric ascent. La Nina events, with cool SST anomalies over the central Pacific and warm SST over the west Pacific and Indian Ocean, are associated with precipitation increases over Southern Africa. The regional precipitation increases are forced primarily by lower tropospheric cyclonic circulation, resulting in mid-tropospheric ascent and an increased flux of moisture into the region.

The Role of a Polar/Subtropical Jet Superposition in the May 2010 Nashville Flood

Abstract Contributions to the increased poleward moisture flux that characterized the second day of the 1–3 May Nashville, Tennessee, flood of 2010 are examined from the perspective of polar and subtropical jet superposition and its influence on the secondary ageostrophic circulation. Employing the Sawyer–Eliassen circulation equation, the analysis reveals that the poleward moisture flux attributed to the jet increased nearly 120% prior to the second day of the event in response to the superposed jet’s ageostrophic circulation, helping to further fuel the production of heavy rainfall. The full Sawyer–Eliassen circulation associated with the superposed jet is further partitioned into its geostrophic and diabatic components. The geostrophic forcing drove midtropospheric ascent that fueled the production of deep convection and the record rainfall. The diabatic component, through forcing lower-tropospheric ascent and vigorous lower-tropospheric poleward moisture flux, provided the link between the tropical moisture and the deep convective environment. Since superposed jets, by their nature, develop on the poleward edge of the tropical or subtropical air, it is suggested that such a mutually reinforcing interaction between these two component forcings of the secondary circulation may routinely characterize the involvement of superposed jet structures in high-impact weather events.

Simulation of the West African monsoon onset using the HadGEM3-RA regional climate model

The performance of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) in simulating the West African monsoon (WAM) is investigated. We focus on performance for monsoon onset timing and for rainfall totals over the June–July–August (JJA) season and on the model’s representation of the underlying dynamical processes. Experiments are driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and follow the CORDEX experimental protocol. Simulations with the HadGEM3 global model, which shares a common physical formulation with HadGEM3-RA, are used to gain insight into the causes of HadGEM3-RA simulation errors. It is found that HadGEM3-RA simulations of monsoon onset timing are realistic, with an error in mean onset date of two pentads. However, the model has a dry bias over the Sahel during JJA of 15–20 %. Analysis suggests that this is related to errors in the positioning of the Saharan heat low, which is too far south in HadGEM3-RA and associated with an insufficient northward reach of the south-westerly low-level monsoon flow and weaker moisture convergence over the Sahel. Despite these biases HadGEM3-RA’s representation of the general rainfall distribution during the WAM appears superior to that of ERA-Interim when using Global Precipitation Climatology Project or Tropical Rain Measurement Mission data as reference. This suggests that the associated dynamical features seen in HadGEM3-RA can complement the physical picture available from ERA-Interim. This approach is supported by the fact that the global HadGEM3 model generates realistic simulations of the WAM without the benefit of pseudo-observational forcing at the lateral boundaries; suggesting that the physical formulation shared with HadGEM3-RA, is able to represent the driving processes. HadGEM3-RA simulations confirm previous findings that the main rainfall peak near 10°N during June–August is maintained by a region of mid-tropospheric ascent located, latitudinally, between the cores of the African Easterly Jet and Tropical Easterly Jet that intensifies around the time of onset. This region of ascent is weaker and located further south near 5°N in the driving ERA-Interim reanalysis, for reasons that may be related to the coarser resolution or the physics of the underlying model, and this is consistent with a less realistic latitudinal rainfall profile than found in the HadGEM3-RA simulations.

Impacts of Land–Atmosphere Feedbacks on Deep, Moist Convection on the Canadian Prairies

Abstract The purpose of this study was to focus on how anomalies in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; a proxy for soil moisture) over the Canadian Prairies can condition the convective boundary layer (CBL) so as to inhibit or facilitate thunderstorm activity while also considering the role of synoptic-scale forcing. This study focused on a census agricultural region (CAR) over central Alberta for which we had observed lightning data (proxy for thunderstorms), remotely sensed NDVI data, and in situ rawinsonde data (to quantify impacts of vegetation vigor on the CBL characteristics) for 11 summers from 1999 to 2009. The authors’ data suggest that the occurrence of lightning over the study area is more likely (and is of longer duration) when storms develop in an environment in which the surface and upper-air synoptic-scale forcing are synchronized. On days when surface forcing and midtropospheric ascent are present, storms are more likely to be triggered when NDVI is much above average, compared to when NDVI is much below average. Additionally, the authors found the response of thunderstorm duration to NDVI anomalies to be asymmetric. That is, the response of lightning duration to anomalies in NDVI is marked when NDVI is below average but is not necessarily discernible when NDVI is above average. The authors propose a conceptual model, based largely on observations, that integrates all of the above findings to describe how a reduction in vegetation vigor—in response to soil moisture deficits—modulates the partitioning of available energy into sensible and latent heat fluxes at the surface, thereby modulating lifting condensation level heights, which in turn affect lightning activity.

An Interdecadal Change in Southern China Summer Rainfall around 1992/93

Abstract The present study documents a pronounced interdecadal change in summer rainfall over southern China around 1992/93 and explores the plausible reasons for this change. The summer rainfall is persistently below normal during 1980–92 and above normal during 1993–2002. Coherent changes in atmospheric circulation are identified over East Asia and the South China Sea (SCS)–western North Pacific (WNP). The increase in rainfall is accompanied by an increase in lower-level convergence, midtropospheric ascent, and upper-level divergence over southern China. The changes in lower-level winds feature two anomalous anticyclones: one over the SCS–subtropical WNP, and the other over north China–Mongolia. The outflows from the two anomalous anticyclones converge over southern China, leading to anomalous moisture convergence, enhanced ascent, and increased rainfall. The development of the northern anticyclone is related to an increase in the Tibetan Plateau snow cover in the preceding winter–spring that leads to a contrast in temperature change between the plateau and the surrounding regions. The relatively small temperature change over the plateau, coupled with increases in temperature to the west and the east, leads to an increase in surface pressure extending northward from the plateau. The development of the southern anticyclone is related to an increase in sea surface temperature in the equatorial Indian Ocean that enhances lower-level convergence and ascent. The accompanying upper-level divergent flows from the tropical Indian Ocean to the SCS–WNP lead to the development of anomalous descent and lower-level anomalous anticyclone over the SCS–WNP.

Multiscale Structure and Evolution of an Oklahoma Winter Precipitation Event

Abstract A significant winter precipitation event occurred on 8–9 March 1994 in Oklahoma. Snow accumulations greater than 30 cm (12 in.) were measured within a narrow corridor in northern Oklahoma. On the synoptic scale and mesoscale, a correspondence between large snow accumulations and 600-hPa frontogenesis was revealed; the precipitation was formed above the cold frontal surface, owing to midtropospheric ascent associated with the cross-frontal circulation in a region of elevated conditional instability. The location of such a narrow corridor of large accumulations was not, however, disclosed by any patterns in the radar reflectivity data. Indeed, during this event, an elongated maximum of snow accumulation was not associated with a persistent “band” of enhanced reflectivity and vice versa. Dual-polarization and dual-Doppler radar data allowed for a novel analysis of winter precipitation processes and structures, within the context of the larger-scale diagnosis. It was possible to identify, in order of...

The Windsor Locks, Connecticut Tornado of 3 October 1979: An Analysis of an Intermittent Severe Weather Event

Abstract On 3 October 1979 a violent F4 tornado struck without warning at Windsor Locks, Connecticut just before 1900 UTC. It was the most destructive storm ever to occur in Connecticut. Our case study of the storm was motivated by the rarity of tornadoes in Connecticut and the unfavorable time of the year for such storms in New England. The history of the storm is traced by means of synoptic and subsynoptic scale analyses. Vigorous midtropospheric ascent occurred just in advance of a cold-core cutoff vortex that was opening up due to synoptic scale deformation while moving northeastward toward southern New England. The probable destabilization mechanism was the intersection of the northeastward moving pocket of cool air aloft with a tongue of high equivalent potential temperature surface air that originated over the relatively warm ocean water and was channeled northward through the Connecticut River Valley. The convective cell that eventually became associated with the Windsor Locks tornado was detected...