Middle-income Economies Research Articles

Cities and climate change in developing countries

An increasing proportion of greenhouse gas emissions is coming from urban areas, particularly in developing countries with low- and middle-income economies. While the major challenge for transitions into climate-friendly urban areas in developed countries is the reduction of their consumption footprints, the key factor for advancing the urban climate agenda in developing countries is the link between climate change and the achievement of various Sustainable Development Goals, as these countries struggle with “old problems,” including the provision of basic services and the need to raise incomes. Thus, the contributions of the articles of this special issue explore two main aspects: the understanding of the impacts of climate change in its various dimensions, and the responses and solutions cities have adopted to tackle climate change.

Analyzing the configuration of the National Innovation System for Innovation Capability: evidence from Global Innovation Index reports

National innovation capability (NIC) is an important manifestation of economic development quality and international competitiveness. Previous studies focus mainly on the static impact of factors in the national innovation system on NIC in a given year. Research is still lacking on whether these factors have continuing, stable impacts on NIC in different economies. To fill this literature gap, this study uses fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to conduct cross-economy and cross-year comparisons and discusses how the five elements of the NIS jointly affected the NIC of different economies from 2011 to 2022. The results indicate that the necessity consistency of infrastructure for NIC shows a temporal trend. There are four paths to generating high NIC in high-income economies, but only two such paths for upper middle-income economies. The path combining human capital and research, market sophistication, and business sophistication can drive both types of economies to generate high NIC. The research results have improved the transparency of innovation paths and provided a reference for different economies to achieve sustainable development.

The relevance of post-Keynesian macroeconomics for middle-income economies

PurposeThis paper, based on the 2022 Master Class delivered at the 50th National Economic Meeting organized by ANPEC, discusses how post-Keynesian macroeconomics and New Developmentalism complement each other to understand middle-income economies' development in financial globalization. It summarizes my academic reflection about the advance in post-Keynesian thinking to develop macroeconomics for peripheral middle-income economies.Design/methodology/approachAs part of this reflection, I first bring up the idea of a developmental convention and, next, how peripheral financialization impacts the elaboration of this convention. Given the asymmetric configuration of the international financial system and the context of hierarchical currencies, I discuss the challenge of overcoming underdevelopment in peripheral economies. The post-Keynesian macroeconomics and advances in the structuralist debate provide the analytical tools to understand how peripheral economies develop virtuous or vicious growth cycles. At the end of the paper, I present some comments on the stagnation of the Brazilian economy.FindingsThe growth strategy with foreign savings does not provide the conditions for middle-income economies to operate with sufficient economic policy autonomy to promote productive transformation. To this end, a developmental convention should replace the neoliberal convention that has dominated since the 1970s.Originality/valueThe dynamics of peripheral, middle-income economies, often influenced by international liquidity flows, are a crucial area of study. This research underscores the importance of understanding these dynamics, as it forms the basis for economic policy recommendations. The paper also highlights the inadequacy of the growth strategy with foreign savings in the current configuration of the international financial system, emphasizing the need for middle-income economies to operate with greater economic policy autonomy to foster productive transformation.

The heterogeneous impacts of climate finance on energy efficiency and renewable energy production in developing countries

Climate finance (CF) is considered to be a key financial innovation to enhance energy efficiency (EE) and facilitate the pathway to energy transition (ET). However, the varied impacts of CF on EE and renewable energy production (REP) have been masked. Thus, this study examines the heterogeneous impacts of CF on EE and REP for 81 developing countries (DCs) for the period 2002–2019. The method of moments quantile regression (MMQR) approach is used to control for distributional and unobserved individual heterogeneity. We calculate EE using parametric stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Also, the effects of CF on EE and REP are investigated subject to income heterogeneity and based on Copenhagen (COP15) and Paris (COP21) climate accords. The findings revealed that DCs with lower REP benefit the most from increased CF, and the positive effects break down for countries with the largest distributions of REP. Besides, CF positively contributes to EE across all quantiles of DCs. The results further imply that the impacts of CF are income-dependent, with positive effects on the EE and REP of middle-income economies and more pronounced after the COP15 and COP21 climate accords. Several policy implications are forwarded based on the findings.

Introduction to the forum on the COVID-19 pandemic and international migrant workers: Geographies of (im)mobility and governance challenges

ABSTRACT In this forum, we focus on precarious international migrant workers and examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in four middle-income economies in the Global South: Ghana, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, and Thailand. In this way we consider varying geographies of (im)mobilities, responses, and governance. During the global struggle to cope with the pandemic, the world witnessed that the quality of governance at multiple levels played a crucial role. In these uncertain times, it is imperative that awareness, prevention, and resilience improves. Collectively, the four essays reveal a multitude of challenges. We address important issues such as the relationship between sociocultural factors and digital pandemic governance, the need to improve services and support for female migrants, the complex issue of return migration, the specific challenges associated with sudden and temporary immobility, and the increasingly prevalent status of middle-income economies in the Global South as both sending and receiving countries.

Environmental implications of migration: Worldwide insights

This study investigates the impact of migrants’ skills, employment sectors, urban planning and energy sectors efficiency on carbon emissions. Utilizing the static and dynamic methods Dynamic GMM, Spatial methods on a panel dataset covering 156 nations from 2000 to 2022. Our findings reveal that heightened geopolitical risk leads to both short and long run increases in carbon emissions and the ecological footprint. The results indicate positive impact of international migration, travel services and urbanization on CO2 emissions. The results also investigate interaction effects, revealing the amplifying effect of urban population density on the association between international migration and CO2 emissions. The disaggregated analysis shows that migrants positively impact CO2 emissions in high income, Lower Income while there is complex association in upper middle-income economies. The findings provide policymakers with valuable insights for prioritizing the adoption of renewable energy, sustainable urban planning, energy efficiency measures, sustainable tourism practices, carbon pricing mechanisms, international cooperation, and sustainable economic growth strategies that are tailored to specific country contexts.

Does Mobile Technology Help to Deepen Financial Inclusion? Evidence from South Africa

ABSTRACT Despite the huge penetration of mobile telephone in South Africa, the country lags its peers (upper middle-income economies) on some financial inclusion metrics such as bank account access and the usage of financial products. Thus, the study investigates the impact of mobile technology on financial inclusion in South Africa over the period 1980–2021, while also looking at the transmission channels. The study adopts a battery of econometric techniques such as the ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique, the fully modified OLS (FMOLS), and the Dynamic OLS (DOLS). The study finds that mobile technology does not help to deepen financial inclusion (when financial inclusion is measured by the number of commercial bank branches per 100, 000 adults). While mobile technology deepens financial inclusion (when measured by volume of credit by the financial sector/GDP). This implies that expanding the digital economy may help to deepen access to credit in South Africa. However, the results also indicate that the effect of mobile technology on financial inclusion may not be direct but through investment in education to improve the citizens’ capability and preparedness to cope with innovative technologies. The research and policy implications are discussed.

ASEAN Four’s middle income trap dilemma: evidence of the middle technology trap

In Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines are defined by the World Bank as countries that failed to overcome the "middle income trap". The four Southeast Asian countries (hereinafter referred to as the "ASEAN Four") entered the ranks of middle-income economies in the late 1970s and early 1980s and achieved rapid economic development throughout the 1980s and 1990s. However, since the early 2000s, the competitive advantages of these countries’ labor-intensive industries have started to decline, while the process of industrial transformation and technological improvement has been stagnated due to the lack of innovation resources. With limited R&D input and insufficient indigenous tech innovation, these countries’ manufacturing industry show a trend of "deindustrialization" and the "middle technology trap" phenomenon emerged. As the manufacturing sector failed to generate value-added that promotes economic growth and national income increase, ASEAN Four have so far yet to enter the high-income ranks. Drawing from the cases of ASEAN Four, this paper argues that the "middle technology trap" is a key contributing factor to the “middle income trap,” and countries fallen into the “middle income trap” often experience the "middle technology trap" as a concomitant phenomenon. The paper first introduces the industrialization process of ASEAN Four while analyzes the challenges they faced in industrial structural transformation and technology advancement. It then discusses major reasons that these countries failed to step over both the "middle technology trap" and the “middle income trap”, including limited technology spillovers from FDI, R&D investment shortages and insufficient industrial policies, low-quality education system, deficient intellectual property protection and underdeveloped regional capital markets. The paper concludes with some implications for China and discussion on potential future research on distinctions of the “middle technology trap” phenomenon between upper middle-income and lower middle-income countries.

Realizing Textbook Outcomes Following Liver Resection for Hepatic Neoplasms with Development and Validation of a Predictive Nomogram

Background‘Textbook Outcome’ (TO) represents an effort to define a standardized, composite quality benchmark based on intraoperative and postoperative endpoints. This study aimed to assess the applicability of TO as an outcome measure following liver resection for hepatic neoplasms from a low- to middle-income economy and determine its impact on long-term survival. Based on identified perioperative predictors, we developed and validated a nomogram-based scoring and risk stratification system.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed patients undergoing curative resections for hepatic neoplasms between 2012 and 2023. Rates of TO were assessed over time and factors associated with achieving a TO were evaluated. Using stepwise regression, a prediction nomogram for achieving TO was established based on perioperative risk factors.ResultsOf the 1018 consecutive patients who underwent liver resections, a TO was achieved in 64.9% (661/1018). The factor most responsible for not achieving TO was significant post-hepatectomy liver failure (22%). Realization of TO was independently associated with improved overall and disease-free survival. On logistic regression, American Society of Anesthesiologists score of 2 (p = 0.0002), perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (p = 0.011), major hepatectomy (p = 0.0006), blood loss >1500 mL (p = 0.007), and presence of lymphovascular emboli on pathology (p = 0.026) were associated with the non-realization of TO. These independent risk factors were integrated into a nomogram prediction model with the predictive efficiency for TO (area under the curve 75.21%, 95% confidence interval 70.69–79.72%).ConclusionTO is a realizable outcome measure and should be adopted. We recommend the use of the nomogram proposed as a convenient tool for patient selection and prognosticating outcomes following hepatectomy.

FDI and human capital development: a tale of two Southeast Asian economies

Middle-income economies must prioritise human capital development to ensure long-term sustainable growth and economic upgrading. While foreign direct investment (FDI) is believed to aid this endeavour, its impact on technical vocational education and training (TVET) remains understudied. This research explores the influence of FDI by multinational enterprises (MNEs) at various stages of global value chains (GVCs) on TVET graduate numbers in Vietnam and Indonesia from 2006 to 2016. Our findings reveal that greenfield FDI plays a role in shaping TVET supply, with heterogeneous effects across different GVC segments and subnational regions. Specifically, FDI in logistics, sales and marketing, and support and servicing are associated with an increase in the supply of TVET graduates in the region, whereas FDI in headquarters and production may lead to a decline in technical skills. To address these dynamics, public policies should prioritise flexible education systems capable of adapting to MNEs’ evolving skill demands. By doing so, these economies can elevate local human capital levels and avoid the stagnation often associated with middle-income traps. This research underscores the importance of aligning policy with the needs of a rapidly changing global economy to foster sustainable development.

Subjective Well-Being and Bullying Victimisation: A Cross-National Study of Adolescents in 64 Countries and Economies

Bullying is a recognised serious public problem affecting many students worldwide. Despite the well-established empirical evidence for the negative consequences of bullying on adolescents? mental and physical health and educational outcomes, little is known about the link between bullying victimisation and adolescents? subjective well-being. Moreover, empirical studies using comparative large-scale survey data are particularly scarce. This study explores this question using nationally-representative data from 329,015 adolescents across 64 high and middle-income countries and economies from the 2018 PISA survey. Two measures of subjective well-being were considered: overall life satisfaction and positive affect. Multilevel regressions were estimated at three levels (student, school, and country). Results showed that bullying victimisation was negatively and significantly related to overall life satisfaction and positive affect after controlling for a wide set of factors affecting subjective well-being. Moreover, this negative relationship was more pronounced for top performing students. Locally adapted intervention programmes are needed to tackle the issue of school bullying and foster positive school climate and student well-being. Practical and policy implications are discussed in detail.

Dissecting the digital divide: A household fixed effects approach to estimating gender gaps in digital skills of youth in low- and middle-income economies

This study investigates gender gaps in digital skills among youth (15–24 years old) in 32 low- and middle-income economies using data from UNICEF-supported and internationally comparable Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). Utilizing a household fixed effects approach, we aim to isolate gender-based disparities from household-level variations. The intra-household analysis reveals significant inequalities, with biases against young women in possessing digital skills, including the very basic ones. Supplementary analysis using a mixed-effects model, which accounts separately for within- and between-household variation, highlights that wealthier households exhibit larger gender gaps in digital skills, disadvantaging young women primarily due to a floor effect in the poorest households. The paper concludes with policy implications aimed at reducing gender gaps in digital skills.

A Systematic Study of Pyracantha crenulata Phytoconstituents for their Anti-Diabetic Activity Using Computational Techniques

Background: Diabetes mellitus is a significant medical condition with rising incidence and fatality rates. According to WHO, around 422 million individuals globally have diabetes, the majority of whom live in low and middle-income economies. Diabetes is entirely responsible for 1.5 million fatalities yearly. Researchers are concentrating on plant derivatives due to the higher toxicity of conventional allopathic medicines. Antidiabetic agents and other medications, including from plants, are significant. Pyracantha crenulata is a significant plant recognized for its various therapeutic applications. It contains many phytoconstituents that give antidiabetic efficiency. In order to investigate the antidiabetic efficacy of Pyracantha crenulata phytoconstituents, a study was conducted using PDB IDs IUOK. The research was focused on the analysis of molecular docking and ADME and toxicity studies. Objective: This study aimed to propose a mechanism for the antidiabetic activity of Pyracantha crenulata phytoconstituents based on molecular docking studies. Method: The phytoconstituents of Pyracantha crenulata were docked using the PyRx Virtual Screening software, and the ADME study was evaluated. Results: The results of molecular docking showed that many phytocosntituents of Pyracantha crenulata have higher dock scores against antidiabetic action than conventional drugs. Conclusion: Based on molecular docking study, different chemical constituents may act as potent inhibitors of diabetic proteins IUOK. By using the outcome of the research, new anti-diabetic medications could be designed.

A Simultaneous Equation Approach to Examining Linkages Between Income Inequality and Environmental Degradation in Lower Middle-Income Economies in ASEAN

A Simultaneous Equation Approach to Examining Linkages Between Income Inequality and Environmental Degradation in Lower Middle-Income Economies in ASEAN

Green Innovation Adoption in Turkish and Iranian SMEs: The Effect of Dynamic Capabilities and the Mediating Role of Absorptive Capacity

AbstractGreen innovation (GI) adoption of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) especially in middle-income economies plays a significant role to reduce negative impacts of environmental issues and to gain competitive advantage. The main objective of the present paper is to examine the mediating role of absorptive capacity (ACAP) on the relationship between dynamic capabilities (DC) and GI adoption in the context of Turkish and Iranian SMEs, two middle-income economies. For this purpose, a well-established online questionnaire is administered to 296 top executives of Turkish and Iranian SMEs operating in energy industry, a highly dynamic market. Using Hayes Process Macro Model, the results of this paper reveal that ACAP has a significant effect on GI adoption of Iranian SMEs but this effect of ACAP is insignificant in terms of Turkish SMEs. The empirical evidence obtained from the present paper also puts forward that DC positively influnce GI adoption in Turkish SMEs, however, the corresponding relationship is not significant for Iranian counterparts. For both middle-income economies, ACAP has a statistically significant mediating role on the relationship between DC and GI adoption of SMEs. Strategic alliances engagement and governmental incentives on GI investments are recommended to overcome certain barriers of SMEs including resource shortages and to improve ACAP and DC that enhance GI adoption of Turkish and Iranian SMEs in the future. As far as is known, this is the first study that compares possible antecedents of SMEs’ GI adoption in two middle-income economies.

Health Risks Associated with Tobacco Consumption in Humans: An Overview

Tobacco use remains a significant public health concern globally, with over 8 million anticipated deaths annually by 2030, despite declining rates in some high-income nations. Smoking is prevalent worldwide, particularly in developing and middle-income countries, where over 80% of smokers reside. The inhalation of tobacco substances leads to various diseases, including cancer and respiratory ailments, resulting in more deaths than AIDS, tuberculosis, and other major causes combined. Secondhand smoke exposure also poses significant health risks. The economic burden of tobacco-related deaths and diseases is substantial, especially in low- and middle-income economies, where almost 80% of tobacco-related deaths occur. Lack of awareness, societal influence, and ineffective enforcement of anti-tobacco laws contribute to widespread tobacco use. Although anti-tobacco campaigns and policies have shown some success, challenges persist, particularly in rural areas where tobacco dependence is high. In India, despite declining tobacco use attributed to awareness campaigns and increased taxes on cigarettes, certain demographics, such as middle-aged individuals, illiterates, and rural residents, continue to have high tobacco consumption rates due to inadequate implementation of anti-tobacco norms and limited access to information. Quitting smoking can significantly extend life expectancy and reduce the risk of smoking-related diseases. However, nicotine addiction poses a challenge, with only a small percentage of users successfully quitting without assistance. Professional support and cessation drugs can double the likelihood of successful quitting, and nicotine replacement therapy has shown effectiveness. Overall, there is no safe level of cigarette use, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive tobacco control efforts to mitigate the global health and economic impacts of tobacco use. This review deals with the health risks associated with tobacco consumption in humans. Keywords: Tobacco, Nicotine, Carcinogens, Cancer, Cardiovascular diseases.

Meta-analysis of the climate change-tourism demand relationship

As climate change urgency intensifies, understanding its impact on destinations and the development of adaptation strategies becomes critical for sustainable tourism. This article, through a meta-analysis of 290 climate change elasticity estimates in tourism from 34 studies, examines the influence of climate factors and tourists’ adaptive behaviours on tourism demand. It also projects the situations countries will face by 2050 under ongoing climate change scenarios. Findings suggest that low- and middle-income economies and Small Island Developing States, despite their minimal carbon contributions, will face significant tourism losses. In contrast, high-income countries might see increased travel demand and lead to more emissions. This will aggravate climatic conditions and inflict greater losses on less-developed communities. This finding exemplifies a vicious cycle of climate injustice, highlighting the disparities in climate-related social costs globally.

An overview of productivity management in Ghana

Improving productivity at the individual, enterprise, and national levels is the surest and quickest way to create wealth and enhance the competitiveness and agility of indigenous enterprises. This paper evaluates the extent to which productivity management has made positive impacts on the growth of economies and poverty alleviation. It also identifies stakeholders' roles and strategies in productivity movements in Asia, Europe, Botswana, and Ghana. Results of the study show that Ghana has relatively lower productivity indices than Asian countries. This accounts for one of the factors responsible for the slow growth rate of the Ghanaian economy and the uncompetitive nature of its indigenous enterprises. Recommendations are made to improve productivity levels in Ghana to catalyze the country's efforts towards the attainment of middle-income economy by 2015.

Assessing Real-Time Health Impacts of outdoor Air Pollution through IoT Integration

Air pollution constitutes a significant global challenge in both public health and the environment, particularly for countries undergoing industrialization and transitioning from low- to middle-income economies. This study aims to investigate the feasibility and effectiveness of a real-time air quality prediction system based on data collected from Internet of Things (IoT) sensors to help people and public institutions track and manage atmospheric pollution. The primary objective of this study was to investigate whether an IoT-based approach can provide accurate and continuous real-time air quality forecasting. The standard dataset provided by the Indian government was analyzed using regression, traditional Long-Short-Term Memory (LTSM), and bidirectional LSTM (BLSTM) models to evaluate their performance on multivariate air quality features. The results show that the proposed BLSTM model outperformed the other models in minimizing RMSE errors and avoiding overfitting.

THE IMPACT OF TRADE OPENNESS ON INCOME INEQUALITY IN THE FORMER CENTRALLY PLANNED MIDDLE–INCOME ECONOMIES

This study investigates the association between trade openness and income inequality in the former centrally planned middle–income economies over the period 1994–2019. Apart from the full sample, the EU member or candidate middle–income Balkan economies, and the middle–income CIS countries subsamples were used in estimations as benchmark. Foreign direct investment, inflation, government expenditures and gross fixed capital formation control variables are incorporated into the PMG–ARDL model used in the study. Although some individual country or a few panel studies in the literature have investigated the relationship between trade openness and income inequality, to the best of our knowledge, none have examined these issues focusing on the middle–income post-communist economies and its subgroups particularly. The PMG estimation results for the sample including the middle–income Balkan economies reveal that within 1% increase of trade openness, income inequality worsens by 0.27. We suggest these countries to strengthen their income redistribution strategies while pursuing policies that promote integration into the global market.