Meta-analysis of the climate change-tourism demand relationship

Abstract

As climate change urgency intensifies, understanding its impact on destinations and the development of adaptation strategies becomes critical for sustainable tourism. This article, through a meta-analysis of 290 climate change elasticity estimates in tourism from 34 studies, examines the influence of climate factors and tourists’ adaptive behaviours on tourism demand. It also projects the situations countries will face by 2050 under ongoing climate change scenarios. Findings suggest that low- and middle-income economies and Small Island Developing States, despite their minimal carbon contributions, will face significant tourism losses. In contrast, high-income countries might see increased travel demand and lead to more emissions. This will aggravate climatic conditions and inflict greater losses on less-developed communities. This finding exemplifies a vicious cycle of climate injustice, highlighting the disparities in climate-related social costs globally.