Mid-tropospheric Circulation Research Articles

Atlantyk Północny a klimat Europy. Mechanizmy wpływu. Część 1

The work discusses the mechanisms operating within the climate system leading to variability and changes in the atmospheric climate over Europe. The first part discusses the operation of the main factor regulating the variability of atmospheric circulation, which is the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (NA THC). The variability of NA THC, through its influence on the shaping of the mid-tropospheric circulation and the distribution of geopotential heights, determines the variability of the lower circulation, and thus the variability of climatic elements over Poland and Europe. The analysis showed that the variability of NA THC largely explains the variability of sunshine duration, air temperature and relative humidity, but does not satisfactorily explain the variability of other climatic elements.

Cold Air Outbreaks in Winter over the Continental United States and Its Possible Linkage with Arctic Sea Ice Loss

The mechanism for the paradox of global warming and successive cold winters in mid-latitudes remains controversial. In this study, the connection between Arctic sea ice (ASI) loss and frequent cold air outbreaks in eastern Continental United States (CONUS) is explored. Two distinct periods of high and low ASI (hereafter high- and low-ice phases) are identified for comparative study. It is demonstrated that cold air outbreaks occur more frequently during the low-ice phase compared to that during the high-ice phase. The polar vortex is weakened and shifted southward during the low-ice phase. Correspondingly, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH), which represents the mid-tropospheric circulation, shows a clear negative Arctic Oscillation-like pattern in the low-ice phase. Specifically, positive GPH anomalies in the Arctic region with two centers, respectively located over Greenland and the Barents Sea, significantly weaken the low-pressure system centered around the Baffin Island, and enhance Ural blocking in the low-ice phase. Meanwhile, the high ridge extending from Alaska to the west coast of North America further intensifies, while the low trough over eastern CONUS deepens. As a result, the atmospheric circulation in North America becomes more conductive to frigid Arctic air outbreaks. It is concluded that the ASI loss contributes to more cold air outbreaks in winter in eastern CONUS through the polar vortex weakening with southward displacement of the polar vortex edge, which lead to the weakening of the meridional potential vorticity gradient between the Arctic and mid-latitude and thus are conducive to the strengthening and long-term maintenance of the blocking high.

The long-term course of the annual total sunshine duration in Europe and changes in the phases of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic (1901–2018).

The current study was based on sunshine duration data from 13 European stations during 1901–2018. It was found that the variability in the annual total sunshine duration (SD) over Europe is related to the variability in the component of the surface thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic (NA THC). Positive NA THC phases (the condition of the ‘warm’ North Atlantic) correspond to the periods of increased SD (brightening), while negative phases correspond to the periods of decreased SD (dimming). These relationships remain stable and statistically significant. The mechanism of these relationships is based on the influence of weakened or enhanced heat flow from the ocean to the atmosphere on the course of the mid-tropospheric circulation processes. In periods of positive thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic (NA THC) phases, the share of long waves (macrotype W according to the Wangengejm–Girs classification) increases, with the occurrence of which the frequency of anticyclonic weather over Europe in creases, whereas in the periods of negative NA THC phases, the share of shorter waves (macrotypes E and C) increases, with the occurrence of which the frequency of cyclonic (frontal) weather over Europe increases. It is characterised by increased layer cloud cover, limiting the SD. Thus, along with changes in the thermal condition of the North Atlantic, the structure of cloud cover over Europe changes and becomes a factor regulating long-term changes in the annual total SD.

Tropical influences on European summer climate variability

Numerous studies have established a link between tropical atmospheric conditions and northern midlatitude circulation mediated by Rossby wave propagation in winter. In recent years, research has also investigated tropical to midlatitude teleconnections in northern hemisphere summer. In this paper, we examine summer connections further by imposing observed tropical conditions in climate model simulations. We examine resulting changes in the representation of seasonal mean surface climate variables and mid-troposphere circulation in the northern hemisphere summer, identifying regions where model fidelity improves following the imposition of tropical conditions. We demonstrate robust connections between the tropics and mid-latitudes on the seasonal timescale, with these connections apparent in three mid-latitude regions, namely eastern North America, central Europe and northern Siberia. These regions are shown to be impacted by wave trains originating in specific regions of the subtropics associated with patterns of upper-level convergence. The results provide a clearer picture of tropical to extratropical teleconnections that affect summer mean climate in the northern midlatitudes.

Niestacjonarność przebiegu temperatury powietrza nad obszarem Europy – zmiana reżimu termicznego w Europie w latach 1987–1989 i jej przyczyny

The study discusses changes in the average annual air temperature over Europe in the years 1931–2020. The results of the research show that in 1987–1989, there was a sudden change in the thermal regime over Europe and a discontinuity appeared in the course of this climatic element. In the years 1931–1988, despite the high inter-annual variability, the temperature trend was zero. A positive, statistically significant, temperature trend appeared after 1988. The entire warming in Europe, which can be estimated at ~2.3 deg, occurred after 1988. The discontinuity in the course was caused by an abrupt change in macro-circulation conditions in the Atlantic-Eurasian circulation sector, which manifests itself as a fundamental change in the frequency of the macrotypes of the mid-tropospheric circulation (500 hPa) according to the Wangengejm-Girs classification, causing an equally fundamental change in the weather structure. The change in macro-circulation conditions was forced by a change in the thermal state of the North Atlantic – a sharp increase in the intensity of oceanic heat transport to the north. The analysis showed that the annual variability of temperature over Europe was mainly influenced by natural processes, the variability of which explains ~65% of its variance. Radiative forcing, which is a function of anthropogenic increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, explains only 7–8% of the variability of the average annual temperature over Europe, being a secondary or tertiary factor in shaping its changes.

Meteorological Conditions of Extreme Heavy Rains over Coastal City Mumbai

Abstract The city of Mumbai, India, frequently receives extreme rainfall (>204.5 mm day−1) during the summer monsoonal period (June–September), causing flash floods and other hazards. An assessment of the meteorological conditions that lead to these rain events is carried out for 15 previous cases from 1980 to 2020. The moisture source for such rain events over Mumbai is generally an offshore trough, a midtropospheric cyclone, or a Bay of Bengal depression. The analysis shows that almost all of the extreme rain events are associated with at least two of these conditions co-occurring. The presence of a narrow zone of high sea surface temperature approximately along the latitude of Mumbai over the Arabian Sea can favor mesoscale convergence and is observed at least 3 days before the event. Anomalous wind remotely supplying copious moisture from the Bay of Bengal adds to the intensity of the rain event. The presence of midtropospheric circulation and offshore trough, along with the orographic lifting of the moisture, give a unique meteorological setup to bring about highly localized catastrophic extreme rainfall events over Mumbai. The approach adopted in this study can be utilized for other such locales to develop location-specific guidance that can aid the local forecasting and emergency response communities. Further, it also provides promise for using data-driven/machine learning–based pattern analysis for developing warning triggers. Significance Statement We have identified the meteorological conditions that lead to extreme heavy rains over Mumbai, India. They are that 1) at least two of these rain-bearing systems, offshore trough, midtropospheric circulation, and Bay of Bengal depression moving north-northwestward are concurrently present, 2) an anomalous high SST gradient is present along the same latitude as Mumbai, and 3) the Western Ghats orography favors the rainfall extreme to be highly localized over Mumbai.

Causes and course of climate change and its hydrological consequences in the Greater Poland region in 1951-2020

The paper presents effects of changes in climatic elements in the Greater Poland region (Poland), their causes and consequences for shaping the water balance of this area, copying with the most severe water deficit in Poland. The study period covers 70 years (1951–2020). The research identified an abrupt and significant change in the climate of Greater Poland, which started between 1987 and 1989, concerning not only air temperature but also a wider spectrum of climatic elements. The change in the state of the climate, which covers the entire Atlantic-Eurasian circulation sector, re-sults from a sudden change in the macro-circulation conditions in the middle troposphere (500 hPa). The reason for the change in the mid-tropospheric circulation is an equally abrupt and simultaneous change in the intensity of the ocean heat transport by the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (NA THC). Climate change observed in Greater Poland is manifested in an increase in sunshine duration (SD) and air temperature, a decrease in relative humidity, a change in the cloud structure, and an increase in the degree of sky coverage. The main, physical reason for an increase in air tempera-ture is a rapid and strong increase in SD in the warm half-years, which began after 1988, and a significant increase in the frequency of positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phases in winters. The ongoing climate change entails various effects, among which the most important is considered to be hydrological consequences. The water balance of Greater Poland is becoming increasingly unfavourable, mainly as a result of a rapid increase in field evaporation.

Observations and Simulated Mechanisms of Elevation-Dependent Warming over the Tropical Andes

Abstract Many mountain regions around the world are exposed to enhanced warming when compared to their surroundings, threatening key environmental services provided by mountains. Here we investigate this effect, known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW), in the Andes of Ecuador, using observations and simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. EDW is discernible in observations of mean and maximum temperature in the Andes of Ecuador, but large uncertainties remain due to considerable data gaps in both space and time. WRF simulations of present-day (1986–2005) and future climate (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2041–60) reveal a very distinct EDW signal, with different rates of warming on the eastern and western slopes. This EDW effect is the combined result of multiple feedback mechanisms that operate on different spatial scales. Enhanced upper-tropospheric warming projects onto surface temperature on both sides of the Andes. In addition, changes in the zonal mean midtropospheric circulation lead to enhanced subsidence and warming over the western slopes at high elevation. The increased subsidence also induces drying, reduces cloudiness, and results in enhanced net surface radiation receipts, further contributing to stronger warming. Finally, the highest elevations are also affected by the snow-albedo feedback, due to significant reductions in snow cover by the middle of the twenty-first century. While these feedbacks are more pronounced in the high-emission scenario RCP8.5, our results indicate that high elevations in Ecuador will continue to warm at enhanced rates in the twenty-first century, regardless of emission scenario. Significance Statement Mountains are often projected to experience stronger warming than their surrounding lowlands going forward, a phenomenon known as elevation-dependent warming (EDW), which can threaten high-altitude ecosystems and lead to accelerated glacier retreat. We investigate the mechanisms associated with EDW in the Andes of Ecuador using both observations and model simulations for the present and the future. A combination of factors amplify warming at mountain tops, including a stronger warming high in the atmosphere, reduced cloudiness, and a reduction of snow and ice at high elevations. The latter two factors also favor enhanced absorption of sunlight, which promotes warming. The degree to which this warming is enhanced at high elevations in the future depends on the greenhouse gas emission pathway.

Tracing the Transboundary Transport of Mercury to the Tibetan Plateau Using Atmospheric Mercury Isotopes

Deposition of atmospheric mercury (Hg) is the most important Hg source on the high-altitude Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. Herein, total gaseous Hg (TGM) at an urban and a forest site on the Tibetan Plateau was collected respectively from May 2017 to October 2018, and isotopic compositions were measured to clarify the influences of landforms and monsoons on the transboundary transport of atmospheric Hg to the Tibetan Plateau. The transboundary transported anthropogenic emissions mainly originated over Indo-Gangetic Plain and carried over the Himalayas by convective storms and mid-tropospheric circulation, contributing over 50% to the TGM at the Lhasa urban site, based on the binary mixing model of isotopes. In contrast, during the transport of TGM from South Asia with low altitude, the uptake by evergreen forest in Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon largely decreased the TGM level and shifted isotopic compositions in TGM at the Nyingchi forest site, which are located at the high-altitude end of the canyon. Our results provided direct evidence from Hg isotopes to reveal the distinct patterns of transboundary transport to the Tibetan Plateau shaped by landforms and climates, which is critical to fully understand the biogeochemical cycling of Hg in the high-altitude regions.

Climatological influence of land and atmospheric initial conditions on North America and Eurasia surface temperature and circulation in the past 57 years (1958–2014) reforecasts

This study demonstrates the potential impact of land and atmospheric initial conditions (ICs) on the mean state of land surface temperature (SKT) and mid-troposphere circulation over Eurasia and North America (NA) using the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958–2014. The land ICs and atmosphere ICs have assembled from several different data sources before and after 1979 in January initialized reforecasts (JIR). Therefore, two-time periods have defined, earlier period (1958–1978) and later period (1994–2014). The climatological difference between JIR P58-78 and P94-14 depicts enhanced cold SKT and sub-surface temperature at 0–10 cm over northern Eurasia and northeast region of NA from May to June. Model overestimates snow cover fraction from May to June in JIR P58-78 than JIR P94-14, which leads to excessive upwards-shortwave radiation in the northern latitudes. Due to cold temperature from the surface to mid-troposphere, model depicts lower geopotential heights in mid-troposphere, which leads to increase westerly winds at mid-troposphere over northern latitudes from May to June. The climatological differences between earlier and later periods of JIR from May to June are similar to differences between reforecasts initialized in winter and spring as reported by some recent studies. The climatological difference between JIR P58-78 and P94-14 depicts enhanced cooling from surface to 600 hPa over northern latitudes in January. As lead months increase, the magnitude of cold temperature decreases gradually from February to March. Most prominent centers of geopotential height from surface to mid-troposphere over northern latitude in climatological differences between earlier and later periods of JIR in January vanish in February. The different sources of ICs and the nature of land conditions before and after 1979 are main causes of large differences in JIR from May to June over northern latitudes.

Modulations of North American and European Weather Variability and Extremes by Interdecadal Variability of the Atmospheric Circulation over the North Atlantic Sector

AbstractThe dominant mode of wintertime interdecadal covariability between subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability and midtropospheric circulation over the North Atlantic sector is identified through maximum covariance analysis applied to century-long reanalysis data. This mode highlights a tendency for subseasonal temperature variability over Europe and eastern North America to be enhanced during decades when the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prevails. This interdecadal NAO is characterized by a stationary Rossby wave train that originates from the subtropical Atlantic, propagates northward into the subpolar Atlantic, and finally refracts toward Europe and the Middle East. A decadal increase in precipitation in the subtropics under the enhanced supply of heat and moisture from the Gulf Stream and its surroundings appears to act as a source for this wave train. The influence of the interdecadal NAO on subseasonal SAT variability is explained primarily by the modulated efficiency of baroclinic conversion of available potential energy from the background atmospheric flow to subseasonal eddies. The combination of enhanced subseasonal variability and low winter-mean temperature anomalies associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal NAO increases the frequency of cold extremes affecting Europe and the eastern United States.

Dynamic Diagnosis of Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in the Boreal Winter of 2018 and Its Possible Impact on Weather over North America

In the winter of 2018, a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event occurred in the Northern Hemisphere. This study performs a dynamic diagnosis on this 2018 SSW event and analyzes its possible impact on the weather over North America. The result shows that the ridge over Alaska in the mid-troposphere and the trough over the northeastern North America are the prominent tropospheric precursory signals before the occurrence of this SSW event. The signals appear 10 days before the SSW, which greatly enhances the propagation of the planetary wavenumber 2 from the troposphere to the extratropical stratosphere. The collapse process of stratospheric polar vortex indicates that this SSW is a typical vortex splitting event dominated by planetary wavenumber 2. Additionally, after the SSW onset, no reflection of the stratosphere on the tropospheric planetary waves is observed. Thus, this event can also be classified as an absorbing-type SSW event. A noticeable cold wave occurs in the northwestern North America within 10 days after the 2018 SSW. This cold wave is probably associated with the SSW-related west–east dipole, namely a ridge over Alaska and a trough over the northeastern North America in the mid-troposphere that lasted up to 10 days after the onset date. The composite analysis of the other seven SSW events with an emergence of similar mid-tropospheric circulation pattern after SSW onset date yields coincident 2-meter temperature anomalies in the northwestern North America, which confirms the above conclusion to some extent.

Assessing the Representation of Australian Regional Climate Extremes and Their Associated Atmospheric Circulation in Climate Models

AbstractWe assess the representation of multiday temperature and rainfall extremes in southeast Australia in three coupled general circulation models (GCMs) of varying resolution. We evaluate the statistics of the modeled extremes in terms of their frequency, duration, and magnitude compared to observations, and the model representation of the midtropospheric circulation (synoptic and large scale) associated with the extremes. We find that the models capture the statistics of observed heatwaves reasonably well, though some models are “too wet” to adequately capture the observed duration of dry spells but not always wet enough to capture the magnitude of extreme wet events. Despite the inability of the models to simulate all extreme event statistics, the process evaluation indicates that the onset and decay of the observed synoptic structures are well simulated in the models, including for wet and dry extremes. We also show that the large-scale wave train structures associated with the observed extremes are reasonably well simulated by the models although their broader onset and decay is not always captured in the models. The results presented here provide some context for, and confidence in, the use of the coupled GCMs in climate prediction and projection studies for regional extremes.

African Easterly Jet South: control, maintenance mechanisms and link with Southern subtropical waves

The African Easterly Jet South (AEJ-S) is an important feature of the central African mid tropospheric circulation and has been identified as a key contributor to convection over the region. This study uses 21-year (1983–2003) Reanalysis data sets of ERA-Interim, NCEP2 and MERRA2 to establish mechanisms related to AEJ-S dynamics. Results demonstrate that AEJ-S is dominated by rotational circulation and is maintained by a mid-level high that forms over the Kalahari region during September to November. Because of the role played by this high pressure system in the AEJ-S dynamics, an effort is made to understand how this anticyclone develops. We show that this mid-tropospheric high over the Kalahari region is established in response to lower tropospheric dry convection over the region from September to November. At the core of this high, anticyclonic circulation is induced and maintains AEJ-S located at the northern flank of the high. A link between AEJ-S dynamics and southern subtropical westerly waves is also revealed. It is shown that, when waves amplify over the southern subtropics, they modify lower tropospheric heating. Depending on the phase of the wave, this modifies the cross latitude temperature gradient throughout equatorial regions, therefore modulating the intensity of the jet. By clarifying the mechanisms that govern the AEJ-S, this research work contributes to insight into central Africa climate mechanisms and also suggests a link between central Africa and Southern Africa climate systems. This research work also improves the foundation of new mechanisms that help to identify suitable metrics for the evaluation of Global models over the Central Africa region.

Meridionally Extending Anomalous Wave Train over Asia During Breaks in the Indian Summer Monsoon

Anomalous interactions between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and subtropical westerlies are known to trigger breaks in the ISM on subseasonal time-scales, characterised by a pattern of suppressed rainfall over central-north India, and enhanced rainfall over the foothills of the central–eastern Himalayas (CEH). An intriguing feature during ISM breaks is the formation of a mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation anomaly extending over the subtropical and mid-latitude areas of the Asian continent. This study investigates the mechanism of the aforesaid Asian continental mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation (ACMCC) anomaly using observations and simplified model experiments. The results of our study indicate that the ACMCC during ISM breaks is part of a larger meridional wave train comprising of alternating anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies that extend poleward from the monsoon region to the Arctic. A lead–lag analysis of mid-tropospheric circulation anomalies suggests that the meridional wave-train generation is linked to latent heating (LH) anomalies over the CEH foothills, Indo-China, and the Indian landmass during ISM breaks. By conducting sensitivity experiments using a simplified global atmospheric general circulation model forced with satellite-derived three-dimensional LH, it is demonstrated that the combined effects of the enhanced LH over the CEH foothills and Indo-China and decreased LH over the Indian landmass during ISM breaks are pivotal for generating the poleward extending meridional wave train and the ACMCC anomaly. At the same time, the spatial extent of the mid-latitude cyclonic anomaly over Far-East Asia is also influenced by the anomalous LH over central–eastern China. While the present findings provide interesting insights into the role of LH anomalies during ISM breaks on the poleward extending meridional wave train, the ACMCC anomaly is found to have important ramifications on the daily rainfall extremes over the Indo-China region. It is revealed from the present analysis that the frequency of extreme rainfall occurrences over Indo-China shows a twofold increase during ISM break periods as compared to active ISM conditions.

Contrasting synoptic weather patterns between non-dust high particulate matter events and Asian dust events in Seoul, South Korea

The serious degradation of regional air quality is a critical social issue in East Asia despite continuous efforts to reduce the emission of pollutants and their precursors. To better understand high-pollution events in this region, the synoptic weather patterns associated with springtime non-dust high PM10 (High PM10) events and Asian Dust events in Seoul, South Korea, are examined for the 2001–2018 period. It is shown that the two high-pollution events accompany different atmospheric circulations. While High PM10 events are associated with weak surface cyclonic circulations over the Southeast China, Asian Dust events are characterized by strong cyclones over Northeast China. Composite weather maps show that mid-tropospheric circulation anomalies are exactly the opposite between the two events with anticyclonic anomalies over the Korean Peninsula for High PM10 events but cyclonic anomalies for Asian Dust events. The cluster analyses further reveal that High PM10 events are not determined by a single dominant weather pattern. They are associated with surface cyclonic circulations from southeastern China to the Sea of Okhotsk, anticyclonic circulations around the Korean Peninsula or their mixtures. This result is in contrast with the Asian Dust events which are primarily driven by vertically well-organized continental cyclones.

Geostrophic wind variability in the 50–60°N zone over Europe: the role of mid-troposphere atmospheric circulation macro-forms

Abstract Circulation in the mid-troposphere in moderate and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere can be characterised by the Vangenheim-Girs (VG) circulation macro-forms. The aim of the research was to analyse the VG macro-forms as a factor determining the general characteristics of the atmospheric circulation in mid-troposphere in the Euro-Atlantic region and low-troposphere airflow characteristics in the profile (zonal belt) crossing Central Europe from Ireland to Kazan in Russia (5°30’W–44°00’E). Alongside the VG macro-form calendar, ERA-INTERIM data were used. The utilised meteorological variables comprised 500hPa geopotential height, SLP and air temperature at 995 sigma level. The temporal scope of the research was 35 years (1981–2015) and the resolution was 24h (12.00 UTC). The circulation in the low-troposphere was characterised by the geostrophic wind vector characteristics directly resulting from SLP and air temperature fields. Subsequently, derived indices (e.g. wind direction stability) were used. The presented results indicate that the variability of anemological conditions at SLP in the area of 50–60°N over Europe is in direct connection with the mid-troposphere circulation features. The differences are statistically significant across nearly the entire research area. This includes the reversal of the dominant air flow direction in some areas. The greatest variability in geostrophic wind characteristics due to W, E and C VG macro-forms is revealed in the central and eastern part of the 50–60°N zone – between the southern Baltic Sea and the western border of Russia.

Short‐Term Weather Patterns Modulate Air Quality in Eastern China During 2015–2016 Winter

AbstractThe roles of anthropogenic emissions and weather conditions in air pollution over eastern China have been widely discussed but still controversial. Here we focus on the impact of the intraseasonal variability of midtropospheric weather circulations on air quality during 2015–2016 winter. We use the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data to calculate westerly wind index (WI) and meridionality in the midtroposphere and also calculate the intensity of Siberian High at the surface. The results suggest that there were lower WI, higher meridionality, and strengthened Siberian High in January 2016 compared with the conditions in December 2015. Lower WI and higher meridionality imply for wavier midtropospheric weather circulations and stronger surface northerly winds, thereby causing more southward cold fresh air advection and resulting in the lower PM2.5 concentrations over eastern China in January 2016. Sensitivity experiments conducted by the Weather Research and Forecasting Chemical model show that the intraseasonal weather variability dominantly causes lower PM2.5 concentrations in January 2016. It not only counteracts increments in PM2.5 concentrations induced by the increased emission but also reduces PM2.5 concentrations by an extra 25–100 μg/m3. We also simulate two extreme weather patterns and compare their effects on PM2.5 concentrations. Difference in these two weather patterns induces changes in PM2.5 concentrations by 50–200 μg/m3 over eastern China and the maximal change exceeding 200 μg/m3. These findings suggest that understanding the variability of the dominant midtropospheric circulation is the key to successfully forecasting short‐term air quality over eastern China in winter.

An Assessment of Surface and Atmospheric Conditions Associated with the Extreme 2014 Wildfire Season in Canada’s Northwest Territories

ABSTRACTWeather and climate are major factors influencing worldwide wildfire activity. This study assesses surface and atmospheric conditions associated with the 2014 extreme wildfires in the Northwest Territories (NWT) of Canada. Hot and dry conditions led to the NWT experiencing the most severe wildfire season in its recorded history. The season included a record number of cloud-to-ground lightning flashes and set a record for area burned. Lightning was the dominant ignition source and accounted for about 95% of the wildfires. Prolonged periods of smoke led to dramatic reductions in visibility, frequent road closures, and reduced air quality resulting in numerous health alerts. Temporal and spatial patterns of lightning characteristics in 2014, derived from Canadian Lightning Detection Network data, were different from those in other years with, for example, far more positive flashes from 0600 to 1200 utc (midnight to 6:00 am local time). The highest fraction of positive cloud-to-ground flashes (43.1%) occurred in the smoke-dominated North Slave region, which was more than in the Dehcho, South Slave, or Sahtu regions. Mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation over a large region that included the NWT was classified into the six most common summer patterns. Results showed that ridging and ridge displacements occurred more frequently during 2014 although lightning was associated with all circulation patterns. This study has advanced the understanding of the roles of weather, lightning, and mid-tropospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme wildfires in northwestern Canada.

Separate tree-ring reconstructions of spring and summer moisture in the northern and southern Great Plains

The two most severe droughts to impact the Great Plains in the twentieth century, the 1930s Dust Bowl and 1950s Drought, were the result of multiyear moisture deficits during the spring and especially the summer season. Tree-ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index indicate similar droughts in magnitude have occurred in previous centuries, but these reconstructions do not capture the potential distinct seasonal drought characteristics like those of the 1930s and 1950s. Separate tree-ring reconstructions of the spring and summer Z-index based on earlywood, latewood, and adjusted latewood width chronologies have been developed for two regions in the northern and southern Great Plains of the US. The reconstructions extend from 1651 to 1990 and 1698–1990, respectively, with instrumental data added from 1991 to 2017. The four reconstructions explain from 39 to 56% of the variance during the 1945–1990 calibration interval and are significantly correlated with independent moisture balance observations during the 1900–1944 validation period. The reconstructions reproduce similar seasonal sea-surface temperature and 500 mb geopotential height spatial correlation patterns detected with the instrumental data. The 1930s is estimated to have been the most extreme decadal summer drought to impact the two regions concurrently in the last few centuries. On average, spring moisture deficits were more severe during the multidecadal droughts of the mid- to late-nineteenth century, but the timing of drought onset and termination differed between the study regions. In the recent two decades the spring moisture balances for the two study regions have largely been opposite, and this has been one of the most extreme periods of anti-phasing in the last few centuries. Seasonal moisture reversals are not randomly distributed in time based on the reconstructed estimates and are related to sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and to mid-tropospheric circulation changes over the North Pacific–North American sector during May and June.