Northern Mid-latitudes Research Articles

Amplified summer wind stilling and land warming compound energy risks in Northern Midlatitudes

Abstract Wind energy plays a critical role in mitigating climate change and meeting growing energy demands. However, the long-term impacts of anthropogenic warming on wind resources, particularly their seasonal variations and potential compounding risks, remain understudied. Here we analyze large-ensemble climate simulations in high-emission scenarios to assess the projected changes in near-surface wind speed and their broader implications. Our analyses show robust wind changes including a decrease of wind speed (i.e., stilling) up to ~15% during the summer months in Northern Midlatitudes. This stilling is linked to amplified warming of the midlatitude land and the overlying troposphere. Despite regional and model uncertainties, robust signals of warming-induced wind stilling will likely emerge from natural climate variations in the late 21st century under the high-emission scenarios. Importantly, the summertime wind stilling coincides with a projected surge in cooling demand, and their compounding may disrupt the energy supply-demand balance earlier. These findings highlight the importance of considering the seasonal responses of wind resources and the associated climate-energy risks in a warming climate. By integrating these insights into future energy planning decisions, we can better adapt to a changing climate and ensure a reliable and resilient energy future.

Upper-tropospheric pollutants observed by MIPAS: geographic and seasonal variations

Abstract. We present a global climatology of upper-tropospheric hydrogen cyanide (HCN), carbon monoxide (CO), acetylene (C2H2), ethane (C2H6), peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), and formic acid (HCOOH) obtained from observations of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on board the Environmental Satellite (Envisat) between 2002 and 2012. At northern midlatitudes and high latitudes, the biomass burning tracer HCN, but also CO, PAN, and HCOOH, exhibit maxima during spring and/or summer and minima during winter. On the contrary, maximum northern extratropical C2H2 and C2H6 amounts were measured during winter and spring, and minimum values were measured during summer and fall. In the tropics and subtropics, enhanced amounts of all pollutants were observed during all seasons, especially widespread and up to southern midlatitudes during austral spring. Other characteristic features are eastward transport of anthropogenic C2H6 and of biogenic HCOOH from Central and North America in boreal summer, accumulation of pollutants in the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA), and enhanced C2H2 over southeastern Asia in boreal winter. Clear indication of biogenic release of HCOOH was also found above tropical South America and Africa. A global correlation analysis of the other pollutants with HCN corroborates common release by biomass burning as a source of the widespread southern hemispheric pollution during austral spring. Furthermore, high correlation with HCN points to biomass burning as a major source of tropical and subtropical C2H2 and PAN during most of the year. In the northern extratropics, there are generally low correlations with HCN during spring and early summer, indicating the influence of anthropogenic and biogenic sources. However, in August, there are stronger correlations above Siberia and boreal North America, which points to common release by boreal fires. This is confirmed by the respective enhancement ratios (ERs). The ERs measured above northeastern Africa fit well to the emission ratios of the dominant local fire type (savanna burning) for C2H2, while those for CO, C2H6, and HCOOH rather indicate tropical forest fires or additional anthropogenic or biogenic sources. The southern hemispheric ΔC2H6/ΔHCN ERs obtained during August to October are in good agreement with the emission ratio for savanna fires. The same applies for ΔC2H2/ΔHCN in August and for ΔHCN/ΔCO and ΔHCOOH/ΔHCN in October.

Recent changes in ENSO’s impacts on the summertime circumglobal teleconnection and mid-latitude extremes

The boreal summer circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) provides a primary predictability source for mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere climate anomalies and extreme events. Here, we show that the CGT’s circulation structure has been displaced westward by half a wavelength since the late 1970s, more severely impacting heatwaves and droughts over East Europe, East Asia, and southwestern North America. We present empirical and modelling evidence of the essential role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in shaping this change. Before the late 1970s, ENSO indirectly promoted CGT by modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Since 1980s, the ENSO–ISMR link has weakened, but the westward-displaced ENSO forcing has been able to directly trigger a Rossby wave response at the exit of the East Asian westerly jet, resulting in a shift of the previous CGT’s North Pacific and downstream centers westward along the westerly jet waveguide. State-of-the-art climate models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing cannot simulate these changes, suggesting that they are driven by natural variability. This work highlights the importance of studying the impacts of changing ENSO to improve seasonal prediction of mid-latitude extreme events.

Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo.

In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by about 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Niño onset fall short by about 0.2K in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is apparently caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend. Further exploring the low-cloud trend and understanding how much of it is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the current and expected future warming.

Aerosol-Induced Changes in Atmospheric and Oceanic Heat Transports in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Abstract The total poleward energy transport (PET) is set by the top of atmosphere radiation flux and is therefore sensitive to any process which can alter those fluxes, particularly in the shortwave. One example is the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols, which increase the local reflection of solar radiation back into space. The historic emission of sulfur dioxide, which peaked in the northern midlatitudes during the 1980s, has been proposed as a primary contributor to historic anomalies in cross-equatorial energy transport, as well as related processes such as a shift in the tropical rainband. In this study, we analyze simulations from the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), large ensemble and single-forcing projects to better understand the forced response of PET to historical forcings. First, analysis of the single-forcing project reveals that the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) responds in a nonlinear manner to greenhouse gas forcing in CESM2. This type of nonlinearity has been found previously in the context of the aerosol-only simulations in the CESM2 single-forcing project but may be the first identification of a similar effect in the greenhouse gas–only simulations. Second, through analysis of the full CESM2 large ensemble simulations, we find that anomalous heat transport occurred in both the atmosphere (through the mean meridional circulation and atmospheric eddies) and the oceans (through the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific sectors) due to a variety of related processes including the Hadley cells, the midlatitude storm tracks, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and the Pacific wind-driven subtropical gyre. Significance Statement In this study, we investigate how the Earth system changed the transport of energy from the tropics to the poles in response to historic pollution. We analyze a large number of climate model simulations of the recent past (1850 to present) and find that historic emissions of sulfur dioxide caused the model to transport more energy in the form of stronger ocean currents, stronger storms, and stronger prevailing winds. This is because the modeled currents in the Atlantic were too sensitive to historic pollution and transported too much warm water northward.

Vertical profiles of global tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) obtained by cloud slicing the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI)

Abstract. Routine observations of the vertical distribution of tropospheric nitrogen oxides (NOx ≡ NO + NO2) are severely lacking, despite the large influence of NOx on climate, air quality, and atmospheric oxidants. Here, we derive vertical profiles of global seasonal mean tropospheric NO2 by applying the cloud-slicing method to TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) columns of NO2 retrieved above optically thick clouds. The resultant NO2 is provided at a horizontal resolution of 1° × 1° for multiple years (June 2018 to May 2022), covering five layers of the troposphere: two layers in the upper troposphere (180–320 hPa and 320–450 hPa), two layers in the middle troposphere (450–600 hPa and 600–800 hPa), and the marine boundary layer (800 hPa to the Earth's surface). NO2 in the terrestrial boundary layer is obtained as the difference between TROPOMI tropospheric columns and the integrated column of cloud-sliced NO2 in all layers above the boundary layer. Cloud-sliced NO2 typically ranges from 20–60 pptv throughout the free troposphere, and spatial coverage ranges from > 60 % in the mid-troposphere to < 20 % in the upper troposphere and boundary layer. When both datasets are abundant and sampling coverage is commensurate, our product is similar (within 10–15 pptv) to NO2 data from NASA DC-8 aircraft campaigns. However, such instances are rare. We use cloud-sliced NO2 to critique current knowledge of the vertical distribution of global NO2, as simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, which has been updated to include peroxypropionyl nitrate (PPN) and aerosol nitrate photolysis, liberating NO2 in the lower troposphere and mid-troposphere for aerosol nitrate photolysis and in the upper troposphere for PPN. Multiyear GEOS-Chem and cloud-sliced means are compared to mitigate the influence of interannual variability. We find that for cloud-sliced NO2, interannual variability is ∼ 10 pptv over remote areas and ∼ 25 pptv over areas influenced by lightning and surface sources. The model consistently underestimates NO2 across the remote marine troposphere by ∼ 15 pptv. At the northern midlatitudes, GEOS-Chem overestimates mid-tropospheric NO2 by 20–50 pptv as NOx production per lightning flash is parameterised to be almost double that of the rest of the world. There is a critical need for in situ NO2 measurements in the tropical terrestrial troposphere to evaluate cloud-sliced NO2 there. The model and cloud-sliced NO2 discrepancies identified here need to be investigated further to ensure confident use of models to understand and interpret factors affecting the global distribution of tropospheric NOx, ozone, and other oxidants.

The Impact of Geomagnetic Storms on the Ionospheric Critical Frequency in the Northern and Southern Mid-Latitude Hemisphere Regions

In this work, the impact of different geomagnetic storm events on the plasma-sphere layer (ionosphere layer) over the northern and southern hemisphere regions was investigated during solar cycle 23. To grasp the influence of geomagnetic storms on the behavior and variation of the critical frequency parameter of the F2 ionospheric layer (foF2), five geomagnetic storms (classified as great, severe, and strong), with Disturbance storm time (Dst) values <-100 nT were chosen. Four stations located in different mid-latitude regions in northern and southern hemispheres were designated, the northern stations are: Millstone Hill (42.6° N, 288.50° W) and Rome (41.90° N, 12.50° E) and the southern stations are: Port Stanley (-51.60° S, 302.10° W) and Grahamstown (-33.30° S, 26.50° E). The findings of this study showed that during events of 16 July 2000 and 24 August 2005, the negative storms cause a noticeable reduction in the values of the foF2 parameter at the northern hemisphere stations compared to those at the southern hemisphere. These outcomes are consistent with the results of the examining the variation of D(foF2) and the electron density depletion during the tested event times at all stations except in Rome, where minor enhancements in foF2 value were observed during the August 24 2005 storm. During equinox storm events occurring on March 31 and November 6 2001, a noticeable negative impact of storms was observed across all stations. However, at Millstone Hill and Port Stanley stations, the results showed a slight positive storm impact during the October 21, 2001event.

Models and observations agree on fewer and milder midlatitude cold extremes even over recent decades of rapid Arctic warming.

An apparent increase in observed cold extremes over recent decades in the northern midlatitudes has been reported, in contrast to robust decreases predicted by climate models. This discrepancy has led to suggestions that models fail to accurately simulate changes in weather patterns caused by Arctic warming. Here, we show that the observed frequency and intensity of midlatitude cold extremes have strongly decreased since 1990 and are consistent with modeled trends. The previously reported increase in cold extremes was overestimated due to an artifact of changing data coverage. We also show that the fraction of land with observed cold extreme increases over recent decades is consistent with model internal variability on top of a near-uniform forced reduction in cold extremes across the midlatitudes. Our results provide strong evidence of a decrease in midlatitude cold extremes over recent decades and consistency between models and observations.

A new lightning scheme in the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM5.1): implementation, evaluation, and projections of lightning and fire in future climates

Abstract. Lightning is an important atmospheric process for generating reactive nitrogen, resulting in the production of tropospheric ozone, as well as igniting wildland fires, which result in potentially large emissions of many pollutants and short-lived climate forcers. Lightning is also expected to change in frequency and location with the changing climate. As such, lightning is an important component of Earth system models. Until now, the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) did not contain an interactive-lightning parameterization. The fire parameterization in CanESM5.1 was designed to use prescribed monthly climatological lightning. In this study, we have added a logistical regression lightning model that predicts lightning occurrence interactively based on three environmental variables and their interactions in CanESM5.1's atmospheric model, CanAM5.1 (Canadian Atmospheric Model), creating the capacity to interactively model lightning, allowing for future projections under different climate scenarios. The modelled lightning and resulting burned area were evaluated against satellite measurements over the historical period, and model biases were found to be acceptable. Modelled lightning had a small negative bias and excellent land–ocean ratio compared to satellite measurements. The modified version of CanESM5.1 was used to simulate two future climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5; Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) to assess how lightning and burned area change in the future. Under the higher-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), CanESM5.1 predicts almost no change to the global mean lightning flash rate by the end of the century (2081–2100 vs. 2015–2035 average). However, there are substantial regional changes to lightning – particularly over land – such as a mean increase of 6 % in the northern mid-latitudes and decrease of −8 % in the tropics. By the century's end, the change in global total burned area with prescribed climatological lightning was about 2 times greater than that with interactive lightning (42 % vs. 26 % increase, respectively). Conversely, in the northern mid-latitudes the use of interactive lightning resulted in 3 times more burned area compared to that with unchanging lightning (48 % vs. 16 % increase, respectively). These results show that the future changes to burned area are greatly dependent on a model's lightning scheme, both spatially and overall.

Inverse modeling of 2010–2022 satellite observations shows that inundation of the wet tropics drove the 2020–2022 methane surge

Atmospheric methane concentrations rose rapidly over the past decade and surged in 2020-2022 but the causes have been unclear. We find from inverse analysis of GOSAT satellite observations that emissions from the wet tropics drove the 2010-2019 increase and the subsequent 2020-2022 surge, while emissions from northern mid-latitudes decreased. The 2020-2022 surge is principally contributed by emissions in Equatorial Asia (43%) and Africa (30%). Wetlands are the major drivers of the 2020-2022 emission increases in Africa and Equatorial Asia because of tropical inundation associated with La Niña conditions, consistent with trends in the GRACE terrestrial water storage data. In contrast, emissions from major anthropogenic emitters such as the United States, Russia, and China are relatively flat over 2010-2022. Concentrations of tropospheric OH (the main methane sink) show no long-term trend over 2010-2022 but a decrease over 2020-2022 that contributed to the methane surge.

Arctic halogens reduce ozone in the northern mid-latitudes

While the dominant role of halogens in Arctic ozone loss during spring has been widely studied in the last decades, the impact of sea-ice halogens on surface ozone abundance over the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes remains unquantified. Here, we use a state-of-the-art global chemistry-climate model including polar halogens (Cl, Br, and I), which reproduces Arctic ozone seasonality, to show that Arctic sea-ice halogens reduce surface ozone in the NH mid-latitudes (47°N to 60°N) by ~11% during spring. This background ozone reduction follows the southward export of ozone-poor and halogen-rich air masses from the Arctic through polar front intrusions toward lower latitudes, reducing the springtime tropospheric ozone column within the NH mid-latitudes by ~4%. Our results also show that the present-day influence of Arctic halogens on surface ozone destruction is comparatively smaller than in preindustrial times driven by changes in the chemical interplay between anthropogenic pollution and natural halogens. We conclude that the impact of Arctic sea-ice halogens on NH mid-latitude ozone abundance should be incorporated into global models to improve the representation of ozone seasonality.

Uneven changes in air and crown temperatures associated with snowpack changes affect the phenology of overwintering cereals

Time series analysis of overwintering cereals in snowy areas has revealed several phenological patterns associated with climate changes in winter. Herein, to investigate the recent effect of climatic variations on overwintering cereals, we investigated the phenology over multiple decades at three snowy region sites with an air temperature (Tair) increase trend of 0.48–1.09 °C/decade. Our findings were as follows: heading trends differed within the same cultivar at different sites; phenology was promoted with increasing temperatures in cooler regions and decreasing snow duration in regions with heavy snow; crown temperature (Tcrown) was a more direct determinant than Tair in phenology estimation model in regions with heavy snow. A thermal gap of more than a few degrees Celsius between Tair and Tcrown, owing to the insulation effect of snowpack, affected the phenology of overwintering cereals. A shorter snow cover period promoted phenology in locations with temperatures >0 °C. Subsequently, we found that when the thermal gap was >0 °C of the growing temperature range, Tcrown directly helped determine the phenology of overwintering cereals, and irrespective of the warming trend, the periodic inflow of cold air into the northern mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and associated snow cover changes dominated Tcrown, resulting in annual phenological anomalies with a range of fluctuations of approximately 1 month. The trend of increasing Tair during spring in northern Japan is consistent with the global trend, with a pronounced trend of advancing phenology reaching >4 days/decade in a typical cooler location experiencing snowmelt in March.

Mid-Holocene climate at mid-latitudes: assessing the impact of Saharan greening

Abstract. During the first half of the Holocene (11 000 to 5000 years ago), the Northern Hemisphere experienced a strengthening of the monsoonal regime, with climate reconstructions robustly suggesting a greening of the Sahara region. Palaeoclimate archives also show that this so-called African humid period (AHP) was accompanied by changes in climate conditions at middle to high latitudes. However, inconsistencies still exist in reconstructions of the mid-Holocene (MH) climate at mid-latitudes, and model simulations provide limited support in reducing these discrepancies. In this paper, a set of simulations performed using a climate model are used to investigate the hitherto unexplored impact of Saharan greening on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation during the MH. Numerical simulations show Saharan greening has a year-round impact on the main circulation features in the Northern Hemisphere, especially during boreal summer (when the African monsoon develops). Key findings include a westward shift in the global Walker Circulation, leading to modifications in the North Atlantic jet stream in summer and the North Pacific jet stream in winter. Furthermore, Saharan greening modifies atmospheric synoptic circulation over the North Atlantic, enhancing the effect of orbital forcing on the transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation phase from predominantly positive to negative in winter and summer. Although the prescription of vegetation in the Sahara does not improve the proxy–model agreement, this study provides the first constraint on the influence of Saharan greening on northern mid-latitudes, opening new opportunities for understanding MH climate anomalies in regions such as North America and Eurasia.

Zonal Contrasts of the Tropical Pacific Climate Predicted by a Global Constraint

The zonal gradients in sea surface temperature and convective heating across the tropical Pacific play a pivotal role in setting the weather and climate patterns globally. Under global warming, the current generation of climate models predict that the zonal gradients will decrease, but the trajectory of the observed trends is the opposite. Theories supporting either of the two projections exist, but there are many relevant processes whose net effect is unclear. In this study, a global constraint – the maximum material entropy production (maxMEP) hypothesis—is considered to help close the gap. The climate system considered here is comprised of a one-layer atmosphere and surface in six regions that represent the western tropical Pacific, eastern tropical Pacific, northern and southern midlatitudes, and northern and southern polar regions. The model conserves energy but does not explicitly include dynamics. The model input is observation-based radiative parameters. The radiative effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) loading is mimicked by prescribing increases in the longwave absorptivity ϵ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\epsilon$$\\end{document}. The model solutions predict that zonal contrasts in surface temperature, convective heat flux, and surface pressure increase with increasing ϵ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\epsilon$$\\end{document}. While maxMEP solutions in general cannot provide a definite answer to the problem, these model results strengthen the possibility that the trajectory of the observed trend reflects the response to increasing GHG loading in the atmosphere.

Importance of microphysical settings for climate forcing by stratospheric SO2 injections as modeled by SOCOL-AERv2

Abstract. Solar radiation modification by a sustained deliberate source of SO2 into the stratosphere (strat-SRM) has been proposed as an option for climate intervention. Global interactive aerosol–chemistry–climate models are often used to investigate the potential cooling efficiencies and associated side effects of hypothesized strat-SRM scenarios. A recent model intercomparison study for composition–climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosol suggests that the modeled climate response to a particular assumed injection strategy depends on the type of aerosol microphysical scheme used (e.g., modal or sectional representation) alongside host model resolution and transport. Compared to short-duration volcanic SO2 emissions, the continuous SO2 injections in strat-SRM scenarios may pose a greater challenge to the numerical implementation of microphysical processes such as nucleation, condensation, and coagulation. This study explores how changing the time steps and sequencing of microphysical processes in the sectional aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2 (40 mass bins) affects model-predicted climate and ozone layer impacts considering strat-SRM by SO2 injections of 5 and 25 Tg(S) yr−1 at 20 km altitude between 30° S and 30° N. The model experiments consider the year 2040 to be the boundary conditions for ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases (GHGs). We focus on the length of the microphysical time step and the call sequence of nucleation and condensation, the two competing sink processes for gaseous H2SO4. Under stratospheric background conditions, we find no effect of the microphysical setup on the simulated aerosol properties. However, at the high sulfur loadings reached in the scenarios injecting 25 Tg(S) yr−1 of SO2 with a default microphysical time step of 6 min, changing the call sequence from the default “condensation first” to “nucleation first” leads to a massive increase in the number densities of particles in the nucleation mode (R<0.01 µm) and a small decrease in coarse-mode particles (R>1 µm). As expected, the influence of the call sequence becomes negligible when the microphysical time step is reduced to a few seconds, with the model solutions converging to a size distribution with a pronounced nucleation mode. While the main features and spatial patterns of climate forcing by SO2 injections are not strongly affected by the microphysical configuration, the absolute numbers vary considerably. For the extreme injection with 25 Tg(S) yr−1, the simulated net global radiative forcing ranges from −2.3 to −5.3 W m−2, depending on the microphysical configuration. Nucleation first shifts the size distribution towards radii better suited for solar scattering (0.3 µm <R< 0.4 µm), enhancing the intervention efficiency. The size distribution shift, however, generates more ultrafine aerosol particles, increasing the surface area density and resulting in 10 DU (Dobson units) less ozone (about 3 % of the total column) in the northern mid-latitudes and 20 DU less ozone (6 %) over the polar caps compared to the condensation first approach. Our results suggest that a reasonably short microphysical time step of 2 min or less must be applied to accurately capture the magnitude of the H2SO4 supersaturation resulting from SO2 injection scenarios or volcanic eruptions. Taken together, these results underscore how structural aspects of model representation of aerosol microphysical processes become important under conditions of elevated stratospheric sulfur in determining atmospheric chemistry and climate impacts.

Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections

Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge of the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and climate-related risks. We adopt an analysis pipeline inspired by Markov State Modelling and detect in an unsupervised manner the dominant winter mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere weather patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. The daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields are first classified in about 200 microstates. The weather dynamics are then represented on the basis of these microstates and the slowest decaying modes are identified from the spectral properties of the transition probability matrix. These modes are defined on the basis of the nonlinear dynamical processes of the system and not as tentative metastable states, as often done in Markov state analysis. When focusing on a shifting longitudinal window of 60∘, we find that the longitude-dependent estimate of the longest relaxation time is smaller where stronger baroclinic activity is found. In the Atlantic and Pacific sectors slow relaxation processes are mainly related to transitions between blocked regimes and zonal flow. We also find strong evidence of a dynamical regime associated with the simultaneous Atlantic-Pacific blocking. When the analysis is performed on a broader geographical region of the Atlantic sector, we discover that the slowest relaxation modes of the system are associated with transitions between dynamical regimes that resemble teleconnection patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation and weather regimes like the Scandinavian and Greenland blocking, yet have a much stronger dynamical foundation than classical methods based e.g. on EOF analysis. Our method clarifies that, as a result of the lack of a time-scale separation in the atmospheric variability of the mid-latitudes, there is no clear-cut way to represent the atmospheric dynamics in terms of few, well-defined modes of variability. The approach proposed here can be seamlessly applied across different regions of the globe for detecting regional modes of variability, and has a great potential for intercomparing climate models and for assessing the impact of climate change on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere.

IMK–IAA MIPAS retrieval version 8: CH4 and N2O

Abstract. Using the IMK–IAA data processor, methane and nitrous oxide distributions were retrieved from version-8 limb emission spectra recorded with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). The dataset includes measurements from the nominal, upper troposphere–lower stratosphere, middle-atmosphere, upper-atmosphere and noctilucent-cloud observation modes. The processing differs from the previous version-5 data with respect to the atmospheric state variables that are jointly retrieved along with the target gases CH4 and N2O, the treatment of the radiance offset, the selection of microwindows, the regularization, the spectroscopic data used and the treatment of horizontal variability of the atmospheric state. Besides the regular data product, a coarse-grid representation of the profiles with unity averaging kernels is available, as well as a specific research product for middle-atmosphere measurements resulting from a slightly different retrieval approach. The CH4 errors are dominated by the large spectroscopic uncertainty for line intensities, which probably is too pessimistic, and estimated to be 21 %–34 % in the altitude range 6–68 km for northern midlatitude summer day conditions. The N2O errors are 7 %–17 % below 45 km. At higher altitudes they increase strongly due to nearly vanishing N2O amounts. Analysis of the horizontal averaging kernels reveals that for both gases the horizontal resolution is sampling-limited; i.e., information is not smeared over consecutive limb scans. Zonal-mean seasonal composites of both CH4 and N2O exhibit the typical distribution of source gases with strong upwelling in the tropics and subsidence above the winter poles. Comparison with the previous data version shows several improvements: first, the vertical resolution of the retrieved CH4 (N2O) profiles has generally been significantly enhanced and varies between 2.5 (2.5) and 4 (5) km at altitudes between 10 and 60 km, with the best resolution around 30 km for both species. Secondly, the number of non-converged retrievals has been clearly reduced, and thirdly, formerly strongly oscillating profiles are now considerably smoother.

A major midlatitude hurricane in the Little Ice Age

Abstract. An unusually severe hurricane (Louisbourg Storm) struck Nova Scotia, Canada, in 1757. Historic records describing storm conditions as well as damage to ships and coastal fortifications indicate an intensity beyond any modern (post-1851) Atlantic cyclones striking the same region, yet this storm struck during a cold climate period known as the Little Ice Age (LIA). Its track and timing coincided with a British naval blockade of a French fleet at Fortress Louisbourg during the Seven Years' War (1756–1763). This provides a unique opportunity to explore growing scientific evidence of heightened storminess in the North Atlantic despite a colder climate expected to suppress hurricane intensification but which research is increasingly showing to have supported North Atlantic storms of exceptional strength. Weather attributes extracted from the logs of naval vessels scattered by the Louisbourg Storm provided multiple hourly observations recorded at different locations. Wave height and wind force estimates at ship locations were compared to extreme storm surge heights calculated for Louisbourg Harbour and a shipwreck site south of Fortress Louisbourg. Comparing these metrics to those of modern analogues that crossed the same bathymetry reflects landfall intensity consistent with a powerful major hurricane. Historical records show this storm originated as a tropical cyclone at the height of hurricane season and intensified into the northern midlatitudes along the Gulf Stream. Its intensity at landfall is consistent with established seasonal climatological models where highly baroclinic westerlies driven by autumn continental cooling encounter intensifying north-tracking tropical cyclones fuelled by sea surface temperatures that peak in autumn. Stronger seasonal contrasts from earlier and colder continental westerlies in the Little Ice Age (LIA) may have triggered explosive extratropical transition from a large hurricane resulting in a more severe strike. It suggests that tropical cyclones lasting days to weeks and the conditions that generate them are likely masked by cooler historic mean annual to multi-decadal LIA climate reconstructions.

An inverse model to correct for the effects of post-depositional processing on ice-core nitrate and its isotopes: model framework and applications at Summit, Greenland, and Dome C, Antarctica

Abstract. Comprehensive evaluation of the effects of post-depositional processing is a prerequisite for appropriately interpreting ice-core records of nitrate concentration and isotopes. In this study, we developed an inverse model that uses archived snow/ice-core nitrate signals to reconstruct primary nitrate flux (i.e., the deposition flux of nitrate to surface snow that originates from long-range transport or stratospheric input) and its isotopes (δ15N and Δ17O). The model was then applied to two polar sites, Summit, Greenland, and Dome C, Antarctica, using measured snowpack nitrate concentration and isotope profiles in the top few meters. At Summit, the model successfully reproduced the observed atmospheric δ15N(NO3-) and Δ17O(NO3-) and their seasonality. The model was also able to reasonably reproduce the observed snowpack nitrate profiles at Dome C as well as the skin layer and atmospheric δ15N(NO3-) and Δ17O(NO3-) at the annual scale. The calculated Fpri at Summit was 6.9 × 10−6 kgN m2 a−1, and the calculated Δ17O(NO3-) of Fpri is consistent with atmospheric observations in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the calculated δ15N(NO3-) of Fpri displays an opposite seasonal pattern to atmospheric observations in the northern mid-latitudes, but it is consistent with observations in two Arctic coastal sites. The calculated Fpri at Dome C varies from 1.5 to 2.2 × 10−6 kgN m−2 a−1, with δ15N(NO3-) of Fpri varying from 6.2 ‰ to 29.3 ‰ and Δ17O(NO3-) of Fpri varying from 48.8 ‰ to 52.6 ‰. The calculated Fpri at Dome C is close to the previous estimated stratospheric denitrification flux in Antarctica, and the high δ15N(NO3-) and Δ17O(NO3-) of Fpri at Dome C also point towards the dominant role of stratospheric origin of primary nitrate to Dome C.

Acceleration of daily land temperature extremes and correlations with surface energy fluxes

Assessment of climate reanalysis data for land (ECMWF Re-Analysis v5; ERA5-Land) covering the last seven decades reveals regions where extreme daily mean temperatures are rising faster than the average rate of temperature rise of the 6 months of highest background warmth. However, such extreme temperature acceleration is very heterogeneous, occurring only in some places including regions of Europe, the western part of North America, parts of southeast Asia and much of South America. An ensemble average of Earth System Models (ESMs) over the same period also shows acceleration across land areas, but this enhancement is much more spatially uniform in the models than it is for ERA5-Land. Examination of projections from now to the end of the 21st Century, with ESMs driven by the highest emissions Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenario (SSP585) of future changes to atmospheric greenhouse gases, also reveals larger warming during extreme days for most land areas. The increase in high-temperature extremes is driven by different processes depending on location. In northern mid-latitudes, a key driver is often a decrease in the evaporative fraction of the available energy, consistent with soil drying. By contrast, the acceleration of high-temperature extremes in tropical Africa is primarily due to increased available energy. These two drivers combine via the surface energy balance to equal the sensible heat flux, which we find is often strongly correlated with the areas where the acceleration of high-temperature extremes is largest.