Mid-long Term Research Articles

Abstract 3810: Establishment of an in vitro assay that phenocopies tumor response to PARP inhibitors in vivo

Abstract Poly (adenosine diphosphate-ribose) polymerase inhibitors (PARPi) have recently emerged as therapeutic options for patients with homologous recombination-deficient (HRD) breast or ovarian cancer, two heterogeneous diseases associated with high mortality rates. As shown in several clinical studies, patient response to PARPi is invariably followed by eventual mid-long term resistance and progression under treatment. The molecular processes contributing to PARPi-resistance are at present under-explored. Therefore, a huge effort is being made to better understand how to overcome resistance and to identify ad-hoc combinations with other targeted therapies to improve tumor response and extend progression-free survival. We have previously published the PARPi-response profile of a panel of 40 breast cancer (BC) patient-derived xenografts (PDXs). The models tested showed heterogeneous response to PARPi, and only partial association with the genomic status of BRCA genes, the only currently acknowledged clinical marker to select patients that can benefit from PARPi administration. Although these models are ideal preclinical tools for the evaluation of drug combinations to improve tumor response to PARPi as single agent, the use of these models for early preclinical evaluation of combination efficacy is not straightforward in reason of the limited throughput and of the ethical issue with respect of the 3Rs. The use of cellular models is still considered as a standard early preclinical test to evaluate drug response before moving to in vivo assays. However, the main concern when using in vitro models is the representativeness of the results obtained when transposed to in vivo models. In this study, we have setup an in vitro assay that recapitulates the response to PARPi observed in vivo in our BC PDXs, with particular focus on the models that show resistance to PARPi. To this aim we generated 9 cellular models from 9 BC PDX models: HBCx-2, HBCx-3, HBCx-6, HBCx-8, HBCx-9, HBCx-17, HBCx-19, HBCx-39 and T174. Two cellular models (HBCx-3, and HBCx-19) were established from ER+ BC PDX and 7 from ER- BC PDXs and two models, HBCx-8 and HBCx-17, harbor BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation, respectively. Seven out of 9 models are resistant to PARPi in vivo, with HBCx-6 PDX showing partial tumor regression and HBCx-17 PDX showing tumor stabilization upon treatment. Several different 2D-culture experimental conditions, namely different cell growth conditions, drug concentrations, duration of cell exposure to drugs, time points and readouts, have been tested to evaluate response to olaparib. The results showed that a 2D colony assay is the best experimental strategy to faithfully evaluate tumor cell sensitivity, minimizing the false positive results when compared to the in vivo data.. This cell panel will be used to identify combination of PARPi with a library of FDA-approved targeted therapy to identify the treatments to be moved forward in vivo. Citation Format: Olivier Déas, Romain Rousseau, Sophie Banis, Kathleen Flosseau, Enora Le Ven, Jean-Gabriel Judde, stefano cairo. Establishment of an in vitro assay that phenocopies tumor response to PARP inhibitors in vivo [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 3810.

A Case Study Based on Power Data for Solar and Wind Energy Assessment

The solar and wind energy are the great sources to our world because they are clear and unexhausted. In recent decades so many generation farms had been constructed rapidly all over the world. How to evaluate the investment performance and make a better planning for a long term have becoming an important issue. In this paper we discuss and analysis these questions based on actual data take Germany as a case. We discuss the solar and wind energy utilization situation, the generating electricity ratio, and investigate the rules of solar and wind generation, address an approach to adjust solar generations and wind to take advantage of them. Present a scenario of mid-long term planning in power grid, in order to make use of renewable energy, especially solar and wind sources to satisfy the demand of energy for our society development rapidly.

Mid-long term follow-up of endovascularly treated intracranial aneurysms

Aim: Surgical clipping is the gold standard treatment method for the treatment of intracranial aneurysms, but endovascular therapy has become an alternative to surgical treatment for the last 30 years. In aneurysms treated with the endovascular method, recurrence may develop due to the mechanic failure of coil. The purpose of this study is; endovascularly-treated aneurysms follow up as planed. Material and Method: The study included 149 aneurysms of 130 patients treated and controlled endovascularly between January 2004 and December 2013. 72 of the patients were women, and 58 were males. Patients were between 13 and 81 years of age and the mean age was 50.9. Patients were followed for 6 to 84 months by magnetic resonance angiography and digital subtraction angiography. Morphological results were evaluated according to the Raymond classification. Raymond 1 (total occlusion), Raymond 2 (filling of the aneurysm neck) and Raymond 3 (residual aneurysm). Results: Raymond class 1 occlusion was obtained in 116 aneurysms treated with endovascular treatment (77.9%), Raymond class 2 in 16 aneurysms (10.9%) and Raymond class 3 occlusion in 17 aneurysms (11.4%). The total recanalization rate was 22.1%. Of 33 patients with Raymond class 2 and 3, 17 were diagnosed at the 6th month. The remaining 14 patients were diagnosed at the 1st year controls and 2 patients at the 2nd year controls. Of the 33 aneurysms with remnant-recurrence, 5 were giant aneurysms (> 25 mm), 14 were large aneurysms (10-25 mm), and 14 were small aneurysms (<10 mm). Conclusion: It is important to assess the stability of follow-up treatment after endovascular treatment and to detect early of recurrence. Many studies have reported that at least two controls should be performed within the first year after endovascular treatment. Long term follow-up is an appropriate choice to perform with magnetic resonance angiography.

In-situ upgrading and enhanced recovery of heavy oil from carbonate reservoirs using nano-catalysts: Upgrading reactions analysis

Exploitation of heavy/extra heavy oil is becoming challenging as it conventionally requires injection of steam in high proportions, making it not environmentally friendly. In-situ upgrading technology (ISUT) is a novel alternative to the current heavy oil and bitumen production methods, which gives the benefits of both oil recovery and upgrading in one single stage. In this method, recovered vacuum residue (VR) from produced oil along with nano-catalyst and hydrogen will be injected in the reservoir, where upgrading reactions take place. For the first time, a comprehensive kinetic analysis of mild hydrocracking reactions inside a carbonate rock is implemented, which considerably enhances predictive simulations of the technology. With the aid of a continuous experimental setup, nano-catalyst deposition into the rock is also assessed in carbonate cores. Furthermore, a five-lumped kinetic model is developed and matched against experimental data with an average error of 6%. Significant viscosity reduction of 99.8% and API gravity increase of 8 °API are observed for the most severe condition with 35% VR conversion, while asphaltene stability criterion is met. It is recurrently omitted in most in-reservoir upgrading reports and the literature the essentially relevant information about oil stability limits. Non-catalytic conversion of heavy oils, disregarding the energy source employed, is most certain to produce unstable asphaltenes and/or coke before reaching surface transportability viscosity requirements, with additional mid-long term reservoir impairment consequences. It is included in this paper the required confirmation that the in-situ upgraded oil is fully stable when transportable viscosity values are reached.

Synthesis Load Forecasting Method Based on Artificial Immune System for Power System

Electric power load forecasting is not only the sticking point of the safely, operation of whole system, but also the key part of the economical and healthy development of electric power system. The intrinsic single models have shortage, so the synthesis forecasting model making better use of all information will be pursued. It combines those single models property to take full advantage of their information to improve the precision. The most important part of the combination forecasting model is how to confirm the weight. In AIS, antigen and antibody are the parallelism of aim function and doable result. The appetency between antigen and antibody is regarded as the matching degree between feasible result and the objective function. Because of its good property on global searching, it can find the optimal solutions, some synthetic forecasting models based on AIS are set up in this paper, which combine AIS and load forecasting. The attempter average synthetic model and power geometry average synthetical model proposed in this paper, has been applied to a certain area mid-long term load forecasting. It is showed that the synthetic forecasting model based on AIS could provide high forecasting precision.

말레이시아 수입 농·식품 유통경로 연구

The objective of this study was to investigate Malaysia’s import system and Korea’s sales channels abroad to figure out how to distribute Malaysia’s imported agricultural and food products. Considering that 61% of the Malaysian people are Muslims, halal food certification is essential. Our agricultural and food industry also needs new food product development, where Malaysia’s multi-ethnic makeup of its population, 62%ofMalay, 22%of Chinese and 7% of Indian, should be reflected as well as its localization accordingly.BR To broaden Agrifood’s export networks within Muslim regions, our government and agricultural and food industries lay the foundation for halal food markets through a country-by-country and item-by-item research on halal certification. Moreover, our government should make an effort to register the KMF (The Korean Muslim Federation) as one of official halal certification institutes by supporting to develop component analysis and its verifications accordingly and to train halal-related professionals.BR Therefore, based on mid-long term strategies, our government and its related and supporting industries should cooperate and correspond to the growth of external food markets and work out a further development of internal ones effectively, which should lead Korean food industry forward as a high value-added one.

The mid/long-term follow-up of endovascular treatment of dissecting aneurysms of the posterior cerebellar artery

Objective To investigate the safety and efficacy of endovascular treatment of dissecting aneurysms of the posterior cerebellar artery (PCA). Methods We retrospectively analyzed 19 consecutive patients with 19 dissecting aneurysms of PCA who underwent endovascular treatment at Department of Neurosurgery, Tangdu Hospital, Air Force Military Medical University between July 2012 and June 2017. Among those, 9 cases received stent-assisted coiling, 2 cases received double stents implanting and 8 cases received occlusion of parent artery. The post-intervention results were evaluated by Raymond Classification. We followed up all cases after discharge by imaging and telephone. Telephone follow-up results were about the clinical outcome and DSA results were evaluated by Raymond Classification. Results All patients in this series were treated successfully. Following initial treatment, there were 11 cases that were graded as class Ⅰ, 5 as class Ⅱ and 3 as class Ⅲ based on Raymond classification. Hemorrhagic event of aneurysmal rupture occurred in 2 cases (1 case with secondary in-stent thrombosis) during treatment and secondary cerebral infarction occurred in 1 case after treatment. All of the 3 cases recovered well at discharge. All cases were followed up for 6-28 months (mean: 13.4±3.1 months). Two patients recovered well based on telephone follow-up. Follow-up imaging results were evaluated by Raymond scale in 17 cases, which reported class Ⅰ in 13 aneurysms, class Ⅱ in 2 aneurysms. The other 2 case with recurrence received second endovascular treatment and had no more recurrence during long-term follow-up. Conclusions The endovascular treatment of dissecting aneurysms of PCA at a single center seems satisfactory and the mid-long term follow-up results are favorable. The endovascular treatment of dissecting aneurysms of PCA seems safe and feasible, which still needs to be confirmed by longer follow-up and controlled studies with larger sample size. Key words: Aneurysm, dissecting; Posterior cerebral artery; Embolization, therapeutic; Follow-up studies; Treatment outcome

Mid-long term effects of no tillage and Ca-amendment on degraded acid soils under contrasting weather conditions

Inadequate soil management such as excessive ploughing is one of the main problems affecting the sustainability of agroecosystems and may exacerbate problems in acid soils. The application of Ca-amendments to ameliorate acid soils and no tillage practices to recover degraded soils are common management strategies. However, few studies have focused on their interactive effects under conditions of variable rainfall. In this study, we assessed the changes in soil properties over a period of seven years in response to no tillage (NT) and tillage, with or without the application of a Ca-amendment (sugar beet foam and red gypsum). Our split-plot experiment, which started in 2005 was carried out in a degraded Palexerult in Southwestern Spain with an annual rainfed forage crop. The Ca-amendment increased soil pH, Ca content and ameliorated Al-toxicity down to a depth of 50 cm, even under NT, due to the relatively high solubility of the amendment. However, after seven years of experiment, soil organic matter variables were enhanced only to a soil depth of 0–5 cm: NT and the Ca-amendment increased total organic carbon by 31% and 25%, respectively, whereas particulate organic carbon was increased to a larger extent (by a factor of 2.5 and 2, respectively). The positive effect of NT on organic matter variables increased with time, whereas the beneficial effect of the Ca-amendment was stronger in the early years of the experiment. Adverse weather conditions, with either excessive precipitation in autumn-winter or scarce precipitation in spring, favoured biomass production under NT. Given that NT mitigated the adverse effects of both water excess and deficit on biomass, it constitutes a valuable tool to combine with Ca-amendment to maintain crop productivity and recover degraded acid soils. This is especially the case under the changing weather conditions of a Mediterranean climate or other climates with increasing occurrences of periods of drought and/or water excess.

MP48-01 PSEUDOCAPSULE INFILTRATION, POSITIVE SURGICAL MARGINS AND LOCAL RECURRENCE AFTER ENUCLEATIVE ROBOT-ASSISTED PARTIAL NEPHRECTOMY (RAPN) FOR RENAL CELL CARCINOMA (RCC): RESULTS AT A MEDIAN FOLLOW-UP OF 56 MONTHS

You have accessJournal of UrologyKidney Cancer: Localized: Surgical Therapy V1 Apr 2018MP48-01 PSEUDOCAPSULE INFILTRATION, POSITIVE SURGICAL MARGINS AND LOCAL RECURRENCE AFTER ENUCLEATIVE ROBOT-ASSISTED PARTIAL NEPHRECTOMY (RAPN) FOR RENAL CELL CARCINOMA (RCC): RESULTS AT A MEDIAN FOLLOW-UP OF 56 MONTHS Riccardo Campi, Fabrizio Di Maida, Andrea Mari, Giulia Bencini, Ilaria Montagnani, Simone Morselli, Andrea Cocci, Alessandro Pili, Alberto Lapini, Marco Carini, Maria Rosaria Raspollini, and Andrea Minervini Riccardo CampiRiccardo Campi More articles by this author , Fabrizio Di MaidaFabrizio Di Maida More articles by this author , Andrea MariAndrea Mari More articles by this author , Giulia BenciniGiulia Bencini More articles by this author , Ilaria MontagnaniIlaria Montagnani More articles by this author , Simone MorselliSimone Morselli More articles by this author , Andrea CocciAndrea Cocci More articles by this author , Alessandro PiliAlessandro Pili More articles by this author , Alberto LapiniAlberto Lapini More articles by this author , Marco CariniMarco Carini More articles by this author , Maria Rosaria RaspolliniMaria Rosaria Raspollini More articles by this author , and Andrea MinerviniAndrea Minervini More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.juro.2018.02.1500AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES The prognostic role of psecudocapsule (PC) infiltration and positive surgical margins for local recurrence after enucleative RAPN for RCC is still unknown. In this study we report a detailed histopathological analysis of the tumor-parenchymal interface after enucleative RAPN, validating the recently proposed i-Cap (invasion of pseudocapsule) scoring system, and assessing its prognostic value for local recurrence at mid-long term follow-up. METHODS Data from patients undergoing enucleative RAPN at our centre by expert robotic surgeons were prospectively collected from January 2011 to December 2013. A dedicated uropathologist classified the degree of PC infiltration according to our previously reported scheme (PC-, PCK+, PCK++) and retrospectively re-coded it according to the i-Cap scoring system (Figure 1A). Patients with benign tumors and follow-up < 48 months were excluded from the analyses. RESULTS One hundred twenty five patients were included. PC was absent in 3 (2.4%) cases. Histopathological data according to histotypes and i-Cap score system are shown in Figure 1B and 2A, respectively. At multivariable analysis, tumor histotype was the only indipendent predictor of i-Cap score (Figure 2B). Positive surgical margins were recorded in 3 (2.4%) patients. At a median follow up of 56 months (IQR 52-65), 3 cases of local recurrence were detected, all distant from the tumor enucleation bed. CONCLUSIONS In our series, tumor histology and pT stage were the strongest predictors of PC invasion after enucleative RAPN. However, neither PC invasion nor positive margins were associated with local recurrence within the enucleation bed, confirming the oncologic safety of this technique. Further studies are needed to validate our results assessing the prognostic role of PC invasion for different resection techniques. © 2018FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 199Issue 4SApril 2018Page: e624 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2018MetricsAuthor Information Riccardo Campi More articles by this author Fabrizio Di Maida More articles by this author Andrea Mari More articles by this author Giulia Bencini More articles by this author Ilaria Montagnani More articles by this author Simone Morselli More articles by this author Andrea Cocci More articles by this author Alessandro Pili More articles by this author Alberto Lapini More articles by this author Marco Carini More articles by this author Maria Rosaria Raspollini More articles by this author Andrea Minervini More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement Advertisement PDF downloadLoading ...

Endoscopic submucosal dissection of gastric superficial neoplastic lesions: a single Western center experience.

Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) allows "en bloc" resection of superficial gastric lesions. The aim of this study is to report "en bloc" resection rate, procedure results, post resection features, analysis of complications, and relapses at mid-long term follow-up on an Italian center case series of patients with superficial gastric neoplastic lesions treated with ESD. This is a retrospective evaluation of a prospectively collected series of patients diagnosed with gastric superficial lesions who underwent ESD between November 2007 and May 2015. The analysis included demographic, clinical, endoscopic, and histological data. In detail, the following features were analyzed: (1) "en bloc" resection rate; (2) R0, R1, and RX rate; (3) complication rate; and (4) neoplastic recurrence during follow-up. A comparison was performed between lesions treated according to standard and to extended criteria. In the analysis, therefore, 70 superficial lesions and 70 endoscopic procedures were considered.Overall, 53 (76%) procedures were performed according to the extended-ESD criteria. The remaining 17 (24%) cases were performed according to standard criteria. In 68/70 (97%) procedures "en bloc" resection was successful. Forty-four (65.6%) patients had a R0 resection, while 15 (22%) patients had a R1 and the remaining 8 (12.4%) patients were RX. Two patients (2.8%) experienced a major complication. Overall, 7 patients (10.4%) required surgery: in two cases because of local recurrence, in one case for an intraprocedural complication not amenable to endoscopic treatment, in three patients with R1 vertical margins, and in the last patient because of an aggressive pathology (i.e. signet ring cell adenocarcinoma). The mean follow-up of patients with neoplastic lesions was 36.6 ± 13.1 months. ESD for early gastric cancer is a safe and effective technique when performed by experienced Endoscopists also in Western setting. When comparing the outcomes of the ESD in patients with standard and extended indication there is no significant difference in terms of complete resection, complications and local recurrence rates. Larger Western studies are needed to clearly define the role and the outcomes of ESD in regions at low incidence for gastric neoplasia.

Indicator-based assessment of post-fire recovery dynamics using satellite NDVI time-series

Fire disturbance severely modifies ecosystem structure and functioning, and therefore predicting post-fire responses is pivotal to improve land management. Indicators that efficiently link post-fire recovery with a timely decision on landscape management can play a key role in the governance of fire risk. We describe a framework to evaluate post-fire recovery based on remotely-sensed measures of relative vegetation recovery, calculated from satellite NDVI time-series. Three indicators are proposed: the novel Cumulative Relative Recovery Index (CRRI), measuring the (mid-long term) extent and completeness of recovery; the Recovery Trend Index (RTI), measuring the steepness of the mid-term post-fire recovery trend; and the Half Recovery Time index (HRT), a measure of the short-term recovery rate. We used Random Forest (RF) models to predict the observed recovery patterns and ranked the predictive importance of several candidate explanatory factors. The performance of RF models ranged from good (CRRI, RTI) to moderate (HRT). Three sets of predictive variables consistently ranked higher: fire traits, landscape composition, and post-fire climatic conditions. The relative contribution of individual variables was different across recovery indicators. These results show that proposed indicators seem to capture different facets of the post-fire recovery process. The short-term recovery indicator (HRT) was linked to landscape composition and post-fire climate. Thus, HRT expresses the speed of initial recovery, related to differences in fire-response traits of vegetation and to climatic conditions immediately following fire. The mid-term recovery indicator (RTI) was mainly influenced by fire traits and post-fire climatic conditions. This indicator captures multiple interacting effects that shape the recovery process related to fire severity, vegetation type and post-fire conditions. Finally, the long-term recovery indicator (CRRI) was clearly more influenced by fire attributes related to severity than by vegetation type and structure or by post-fire climatic conditions. Overall, our results suggest that a combination of biotic processes (driven by plant life-history traits) and abiotic filters (e.g., post-fire climate) determine the early post-fire recovery process. Conversely, the mid to long-term recovery response (expressing its completeness) is driven by the depletion of resilience capacity and by the amount of change in vegetation structure and functioning modulated by spatial differences in fire severity. Our results strongly suggest that an indicator-based approach grounded on satellite time-series of vegetation indices can effectively cover various facets of post-fire recovery. This will improve the monitoring and prediction of post-fire recovery dynamics, with valuable applications in fire hazard management and post-fire ecosystem restoration and monitoring.

Mid-term results of an uncemented tapered femoral stem and various factors affecting survivorship

ObjectiveCLS stem is commonly used today in primary hip arthroplasty, but only a few studies have evaluated their outcome in young high demanding patients. In Indian scenario, many patients require squatting and sitting cross-legged as part of their daily activities placing excessive load on the joint. We evaluated (I) Mid-long term functional and radiological results (II) Influence of age, gender, diagnosis, stem alignment, Canal fill index (CFI) on the outcome (III) Kaplan-Meier survivorship using revision for any reason or for aseptic loosening as an endpoint. MethodsRetrospective evaluation of 64 THA in 54 patients operated between July 2000 to July 2011 using CLS stem was done. Mean follow-up was 10.3 years (5–14.9 years) with 5 patients lost to follow-up and 4 patients died. Mean age at surgery was 46.8 years (18–78 years). ResultsMean Harris hip score was 89.4 (72–100). Thigh pain was present in 4 hips which were not associated with the sizing of the stem (p = .489). Stable fixation by bony ingrowth was seen in 53 hips (96.4%) and by fibrous ingrowth in 2 cases (3.6%) with no case of loosening seen. Stress shielding was seen as Grade II in 17 hips (30.9%), Grade III in 3 hips (5.4%). Pedestal formation was seen in 9 hips (16.4%) which were statistically associated with varus alignment and CFI < 80. No stem revision was performed with stem survivorship of 100%. ConclusionThe mid-term survival rates and good clinical-radiological outcomes of CLS stem in high demanding Indian population were excellent.

Mid and long term outcomes after fixation of osteochondritis dissecans

ObjectiveTo assess the longitudinal outcomes of osteochondritis dissecans (OCD) fixation and to detect the influencing factor for the results of OCD. Methods22 OCD fixation using bioabsorbable pins were assessed Lysholm score, Tegner activity scale and KOOS4 at preoperative, postoperative short (3.0 years) and mid-long (11.9 years) term. ResultsPostoperative Lysholm score was significantly better than the preoperative time. There was no factor influencing KOOS4 at mid-long term. ConclusionOCD fixation contributes good results for a long time regardless of skeletal maturity, the size and the severity of OCD.

Mid-long term runoff forecasting model based on RS-RVM

In view of the two key problems in hydrological mid-long term runoff forecasting-the selection of key forecasting factors and the construction of forecasting models, an analysis is made on, taking Danjiangkou Reservoir as an example, the basis of preliminarily identifying the sea-air physical factors such as atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature and Southern Oscillation, et al. The rough set theory is used to establish the data decision table and reduce the factors, and the relevance vector machine method is adopted to establish the mid-long term runoff forecasting model based on reduced factor set. Meanwhile, this paper simulates and predicts the amount of runoff of the reservoir in September and October during the autumn floods from 1952 to 2008, and makes comparison with the model adopting support vector machine. The result shows that the relevance vector machine has better robustness and generalization performance. According to the standard of 20% annual variation, the simulation accuracy of September and October reaches 93.9% and 95.9%, respectively, and the accuracy of the trial forecasting is all up to standard. Moreover, this model better reflects the characteristics of ample flow period and low water period of the forecasting years.

A Case Study on Drainage Derived from Irrigation Water from a Mid-long Term Perspective

A Case Study on Drainage Derived from Irrigation Water from a Mid-long Term Perspective

A Compact ECMO System with Built-in Monitors and Mid-long Term Evaluation In Animal Experiments

A Compact ECMO System with Built-in Monitors and Mid-long Term Evaluation In Animal Experiments

Mid-Long Term Variation of Aerosol Vertical Distribution over Japan Detected by Lidars

Mid-Long Term Variation of Aerosol Vertical Distribution over Japan Detected by Lidars

Forecasting mid-long term electric energy consumption through bagging ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods

In the last decades, the world's energy consumption has increased rapidly due to fundamental changes in the industry and economy. In such terms, accurate demand forecasts are imperative for decision makers to develop an optimal strategy that includes not only risk reduction, but also the betterment of the economy and society as a whole. This paper expands the fields of application of combined Bootstrap aggregating (Bagging) and forecasting methods to the electric energy sector, a novelty in literature, in order to obtain more accurate demand forecasts. A comparative out-of-sample analysis is conducted using monthly electric energy consumption time series from different countries. The results show that the proposed methodologies substantially improve the forecast accuracy of the demand for energy end-use services in both developed and developing countries. Findings and policy implications are further discussed.

The assessment of the coastal vulnerability and exposure degree of Gran Canaria Island (Spain) with a focus on the coastal risk of Las Canteras Beach in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria

The Coastal Vulnerability and Exposure Degree (CVED) of the Gran Canaria Island and the coastal risk of Playa de Las Canteras (Las Palmas de G.C.) have been assessed by means of a GIS analysis. The evaluation of coastal vulnerability (H) has been performed by using two different levels of analysis: the first one regarding the entire Island (Coastal Vulnerability Index method - CVI), the second one regarding specifically Las Canteras Beach, selected for its socio-economic importance (Coastal Vulnerability Assessment method - CVA). The application of the CVI method, based on geologic-geomorphologic and meteomarine data easily available, has allowed the regional scale assessment of coastal vulnerability (H) along the Gran Canaria coastline and, therefore, the individuation of more critical coast stretches deserving further analysis. The application of the CVA method, based on more specific morphologic-sedimentary beach features that allow to consider both the beach retreat due to storm surge and the coastal inundation due to run-up on the beach, has provided a large scale detail on the coastal vulnerability of Las Canteras Beach. Socio-economic and damage indexes have been determined for the 15 coastal municipalities included in the study area and, by means of the resulting matrix product, the degree of exposure (Ex) along the Gran Canaria coast has been assessed. Finally, the combination of coastal vulnerability and exposure levels has allowed to obtain the Coastal Vulnerability and Exposure Degree (CVED) for the entire Island and the risk levels that characterize specifically Las Canteras Beach. Major results in terms of CVED highlight prevailing low vulnerability and exposure levels along the western coast, and overall high vulnerability and exposure levels along the eastern coast, from Las Palmas de G.C. to San Bartolome de Tirajana. The focus made on Playa de Las Canteras has allowed to identify the areas characterized by medium and high risk levels that represent approximately one third (940 m) of the entire beach and are located in its central part. The used two-level analysis approach has proved its efficiency by highlighting the degree of coastal vulnerability along the study coast and, especially, more critical coast stretches (CVI method) such as the Playa de Las Canteras that can be successfully analysed with the CVA approach allowing for a large-scale assessment of risk aspects, essential for a correct definition of priority management strategies. Results obtained with the present study, along with the awareness of the increasing phenomena of coastal erosion and marine flooding arising on the mid-long term due to the effects of global climate change, highlight the need for the competent public administrations of Gran Canaria to develop a strategic approach to coastal management and sustainable development that considers as a whole socio-economic values and natural resources, coastal vulnerability and exposure degree, and risk aspects.

Development of a New Integrated Care Organizational Model for Patients with Complex Needs in The Basque Country

Development of a New Integrated Care Organizational Model for Patients with Complex Needs in The Basque Country