Mid Century Research Articles

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP WATER REQUIREMENT UNDER MULTI - REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS DURING MID-CENTURY: A CASE STUDY OF D. I. KHAN

Climate change is a major problem which directly affects agricultural economy of a region as the crop water requirements of major crops is increased. This study was conducted to estimate evapotranspiration (ETo) and crop water requirements (CWR) of wheat and maize crops of the study area during mid (2040-2059) century under emission scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The methodology employed here involves the comparison of temperature and precipitation data projected by different GCM with the observed data. The delta change and ratio method was used to obtain the corrected value of temperature and Precipitation (PPT) for the future. The ETo calculator of Food and Agriculture Organization was used to calculate evapotranspiration. The CWR of wheat and maize crops was computed using CROPWAT 8.0. Results showed that out of sixteen GCMs, only four models i.e., bcc_csm1_1_m, gfdl_cm3, miroc5 and noresm1_m, were considered suitable for simulating the present day climate for the study area. The Ensemble average of these four selected models showed an increase in mean temperature of 2.07 oC and 2.47 oC, and an increase in PPT of 8% and 10% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Similarly, ETo showed an increase of 17% and 21% under both scenarios. Ensemble seasonal CWR of wheat crop under RCP 4.5 is projected to be increased by 10%, while under RCP 8.5 it increased by 8%. The CWR of maize crop is projected to increase by 10% and 15% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.

Patriotic natural history and sericulture in the French Enlightenment (1730–1780)

Rural practices of silk cultivation came under increasing scrutiny from French savants, state administrators and agricultural improvers during the eighteenth century. The lacklustre performance of the French sericultural industry greatly concerned state administrators at mid century, who viewed dependence on foreign supplies of raw silk as a major source of political and economic weakness. Practitioners of natural history came to champion the disciplined observation of silkworms as vital to the reform of the domestic sericultural industry. Amateur naturalists and provincial savants turned their attention to the anatomical structure and behavior of silkworms, in an attempt to codify sericultural practices that were consistent with the “natural œconomy” of these precious insects. The various techniques that constituted the rapidly expanding field of natural history – dissection, microscopic observation, experimental manipulation and classification – provided a set of tools for making the French sericultural industry materially viable in the face of stiff international competition. Encouraged and rewarded by various bodies of the royal administration, namely by the Bureau de Commerce and the Intendance de Languedoc, these investigations were configured as civic-minded and patriotic pursuits that would contribute to the regeneration of the patrie. By enhancing domestic productivity and public welfare, natural history seemed to offer state administrators a solution to the problems that racked French state and society under the ancien régime. Patriotism provided a powerful social and moral validation for the practice of scientific observation, at a time when natural history was still widely ridiculed as an anti-social pastime for the idle and the eccentric.

The Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability forArtemisia sieberiandArtemisia aucheri(Asteraceae) — a Modeling Approach

We determined the current potential distribution of Artemisia sieberi and A. aucheri, two important widespread rangeland shrub species in Iran, using bioclimatic variables with and without the addition of elevation (E) to the MaxEnt model. The impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of the Artemisia species was modeled for mid century under the projected climate change of GFDL-ESM2G (RCP2.6) model, a warmer and slightly wetter condition, and CCSM4 (RCP4.5) model, a warmer and drier condition. The results showed that annual precipitation (AP) and temperature annual range (TAR) were the most important drivers of A. aucheri distribution at a regional scale. With the addition of E to the model, we found that E and AP were the most significant factors in determining the habitat suitability of this species. The most significant factors influencing A. sieberi distribution were AP and annual mean temperature (AMT). E was not identified as the important variable influencing A. sieberi distribution when was added to the model in spite of its high correlation to AMT (|r| > 0.8), while AP was the most important, indicating that A. sieberi is less dependent on elevation than A. aucheri. A. aucheri is regarded as a high elevation species (E > 2500 m) which can be distributed in colder and wetter areas as compared to A. sieberi, a mid-elevation species (E < 2500 m). The projected climate change using both models has a much more impact on A. aucheri, potentially driving more losses and fewer gains in climatically suitable habitat of this species as compared to A. sieberi suggesting the adaptation of the later to a wider range of climatic conditions than A. aucheri. The results of the current and future distribution modeling of the Artemisia species is significant in managing susceptible habitats of these species for climate change and for habitat restoration.

Fuel cell electric vehicle as a power plant: Fully renewable integrated transport and energy system design and analysis for smart city areas

Reliable and affordable future zero emission power, heat and transport systems require efficient and versatile energy storage and distribution systems. This paper answers the question whether for city areas, solar and wind electricity together with fuel cell electric vehicles as energy generators and distributors and hydrogen as energy carrier, can provide a 100% renewable, reliable and cost effective energy system, for power, heat, and transport. A smart city area is designed and dimensioned based on European statistics. Technological and cost data is collected of all system components, using existing technologies and well-documented projections, for a Near Future and Mid Century scenario. An energy balance and cost analysis is performed. The smart city area can be balanced requiring 20% of the car fleet to be fuel cell vehicles in a Mid Century scenario. The system levelized cost in the Mid Century scenario is 0.09 €/kWh for electricity, 2.4 €/kg for hydrogen and specific energy cost for passenger cars is 0.02 €/km. These results compare favorably with other studies describing fully renewable power, heat and transport systems.

100 Years of Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Prevalence in France

Purpose: Imatinib and other rationally designed tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) has dramatically changes the fate of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients. Almost always fatal a few years ago, CML is now associated to a near-normal life expectancy for a majority of patients, provided a lifelong adherence to TKI-based treatment. This situation where CML can be regarded as a chronic disease have had mechanical consequences on the disease prevalence and overall costs supported by health care systems. We present here a fully detailed and comprehensive analysis of the French CML prevalence from 1960 to 2060.Methods: We use the cohort component methodology to evaluate the CML prevalence from French population projection and different hypothesis on age- and sex-specific incidence rate, and relative survival of CML patients. Figure 1 gives an illustration of intermediate results at different time points.Results: The CML prevalence in France, expressed in cases per 100,000 inhabitants, was estimated to be around 3 from 1960 to the 80's, 6 before the 2002, 17 in 2016, 25 in 2030 where the tendency inflects, and 30 after 2040. Considering the 100% relative survival hypothesis, a target CML prevalence were defined, the level of which will be nearly reached by 2060. Based on an annual cost of 40000 euros per patient, the cost per 100,000 inhabitants-year is then estimated to be around 700,000 euros.Figure 2 summarize results: the blue line represents the estimated CML prevalence for France. It corresponds to 10 years relative survival hypothesis as reported in the literature for the different periods and our hypothesis for the future: 5% before the 70's, 10% by the late 80's, 35% before imatinib introduction, 47% in 2002 , 80% in 2006, 84% in 2016 and 90% in 2060. The black line corresponds to the 100% relative survival hypothesis. It is the target CML prevalence, that is, the prevalence of CML if the disease have had no impact on the relative survival of affected people. Green line corresponds in relative survival observed before imatinib use and the gray line corresponds to levels of relative survival observed in the 70's. These different estimates clearly show that not only the increase in CML prevalence is attributable to the use of TKI soon after 2002 but also to populations aging as illustrated by the target CML prevalence line.Conclusion: Due to high rates in relative survival observed in CML patients after introduction of imatinib, the trajectory of the CML prevalence in France, as in other western countries, has changed. Given particular hypothesis on CML incidence rates, this trajectory will bring the CML prevalence to levels fully determined by population aging by the mid century, that is, when the proportion of the population aged 60 or more will stabilized in western countries. For France, we have estimated this level above 30 cases per 100,000 inhabitant. [Display omitted] [Display omitted] DisclosuresNo relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Cathcart Castle, Glasgow – Excavations 1980–81

Excavations on the site of the tower-house at Cathcart, demolished in 1980, produced evidence for the construction of the tower and associated barmkin, dated to the mid 15th century. No earlier structural remains were found but residual pottery suggests that the site was occupied prior to the construction of the tower. The interior of the tower was remodeled in circa 1630–40 in brickwork, an early dated example of the use of this material in Scotland, and decorated with elaborate plasterwork. The barmkin was dismantled and a new range of buildings added, also in the 17th century. Significant finds included an important clearance assemblage of local and imported ceramics, ironwork and glass from the partial demolition of the castle in the mid 18th century, deposited with assemblages of 17th-century plasterwork.

Системный подход к оценке качества речного круизного продукта

Cruise segment of the market is stable and dynamically developing part of the international tourism. This determines the relevance of the issue of cruise product quality. Determination of its components is no less important. The article discusses the issues of the cruise product quality as a multifactor model system. The author presents the main components of the cruise system, and defines its mobile element - a cruise ship. The article also examines the interaction of the cruise environment with other systems: tourism, transport, security and mega-environment. The author has developed the scheme of comprehensive cruise services quality system, which takes into account not only the traditional components: accommodation, feeding, excursions, but also elements of port services and infrastructure. The article touches on the questions of passenger accommodations standards for cruise ships, which have not been revised since mid XX century. The author suggests the need to review existing norms and standards in the design of the interior of a cruise ship, refusal of tiered cabins projects, and introduction of projects of such structural element as pool. The author presents the results of Russian consumers’ survey. Their perception of a ship’s quality and priorities are studied, and value of feeding and tour service as the most important competitive factors and elements of integrated cruise product is identified. Importance of feeding factor is consistent with studies of foreign markets consumers conducted by leading European operators and the International Association of cruise companies. The quality of excursion service depends largely on the development of inland waterways, namely the small rivers, infrastructure and shipbuilding, including small.

Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century

The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. Here we take an integrative high-resolution ensemble modeling approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all imported and local sources of water supply to Southern California. While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift towards more rainfall, reduced cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in the frequency and the intensity of both drier conditions and flooding events. The 50 year extreme daily maximum precipitation and runoff events are 1.5–6 times more likely to occur depending on the water supply basin. Simultaneously, a clear deficit in total annual runoff over mountainous snow generating regions like the Sierra Nevada is projected. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases imported water supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and significantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiring water releases from control reservoirs, which may potentially decrease water availability outside of the wet season. Lack of timely local water resource expansion coupled with projected climate changes and population increases may leave the area in extended periods of shortages.

The potential role of forest management in Swedish scenarios towards climate neutrality by mid century

Swedish climate policy targets net zero greenhouse gases (GHG) by mid-century, with road transport independent of fossil fuels by 2030, requiring far-reaching changes in the way energy is used. Forest management is expected to support carbon sequestration and provide biomass for various uses, including energy. In this paper, we combine two energy scenarios with four forest scenarios and quantify GHG balances associated with energy-use for heat, electricity, and road transport, and with forest management and production, use, and end-of-life management of various forest products, including products for export. The aggregated GHG balances are evaluated in relation to the 2-degree target and an allocated Swedish CO2 budget. The production of biofuels in the agriculture sector is considered but not analyzed in detail.The results suggest that Swedish forestry can make an important contribution by supplying forest fuels and other products while maintaining or enhancing carbon storage in vegetation, soils, and forest products. The GHG neutrality goal is not met in any of the scenarios without factoring in carbon sequestration. Measures to enhance forest productivity can increase output of forest products (including biofuels for export) and also enhance carbon sequestration. The Swedish forest sector can let Sweden reach net negative emissions, and avoid “using up” its allocated CO2 budget, thereby increasing the associated emissions space for the rest of the world.

METODE BIBEL DALAM PEMAKNAAN AL-QUR’AN (Kajian Kritis terhadap Pandangan Orientalis)

Orientalist’s attention against the Quran can be traced since the visit of Peter Venerable, from Cluny, to Toledo in the mid 12th century. He asked some western scholars to produce a series of works that will be a scientific basis for the western intellectual meeting with Islam. Orientalist’s critical study against the Quran is not limited to questioning its authenticity. The issues raised are the classic that is always a matter of the influence of Jews, Christians, Zoroastrians, and the contents of the Quran. Orintalist then snaring to a naïve assumption that the Quran is the historical product. Orientalist’s biggest mistake was to assume the Quran equal to the bible. When a critical study of the bible to prove some of its contents are not original anymore, so they assumed that a critical assessment of the Quran to prove the same thing. Though, the biblical method proved the originality of the quran. Therefore, their desire to make a critical edition, and restore the text of the Quran is closer to a fantasy rather than a scientific work

Gloriosa Regina or “Alien Queen”?: Some Reconsiderations on Anna Yaroslavna’s Queenship (r. 1050-1075)

The article questions the image that has emerged in secondary sources of Anna Yaroslavna (r. 1050- c. 1075), the Rus-born wife of King Henri I of France (d. 1060), as an “alien queen” who remained a foreigner in Capetian society. Focusing on charter evidence, it examines the ways in which Anna exercised her queenship and demonstrates that while limited evidence suggests that she maintained contact with the Orthodox culture of her homeland, she also became assimilated into her husband’s western-Christian court culture. The article thus also sheds light on relations between western and eastern Christianity in the mid eleventh century.

Optimization of Co/Mn/Br-Catalyzed Oxidation of 5-Hydroxymethylfurfural to Enhance 2,5-Furandicarboxylic Acid Yield and Minimize Substrate Burning

2,5-Furandicarboxylic acid (FDCA) is a valuable nonphthalate biomass-based plastic precursor with the potential to replace terephthalic acid (TPA) in a variety of polymer applications. In this work, the Co/Mn/Br-catalyzed semicontinuous oxidation of 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF) to FDCA has been demonstrated at temperatures lower than those employed in the traditional Mid-Century (MC) process. As HMF is more susceptible to side reactions (e.g., the overoxidation to CO and CO2), lower temperatures compared to the MC process are typically used to prevent substrate burning. However, lower temperatures afford a much reduced FDCA yield compared to that of TPA in p-xylene oxidation. Therefore, optimization of other operating variables such as catalyst composition, water concentration in the acetic acid solvent, and pressure is essential to maximize FDCA yield. Using such optimization, we show that the FDCA yield can be enhanced to 90% at a 1/0.015/0.5 molar ratio of Co, Mn, and Br, 7% (v/v) water, 30 bar (CO2/O...

Visual Archives and the Affectivity of Photography: The Self-Portraiture of Dakar based Photographer Omar Victor Diop

Photographs are not only a form of visual culture, they are also objects of material culture that elicit emotional and visceral responses from those who produce and possess them. Consider the performative self portraiture of photographer, Omar Victor Diop. Diop re-casts baroque era oil portrait paintings of Africans in Europe in a digital format to express his ambivalence about African migration. The contexts that shape Diop's work include his professional formation in advertising and corporate communications and that he is based in Senegal, a country whose economy is dependent on overseas migration. Thus I ask, is fine art like advertising and in Diop's view, how does the latter relate to migration? Diop's work draws on techniques of affect in advertising while at the same time embedding a critique of the power of affect in a consumer driven social world. In his work, the worlds of advertising and portrait photography appear as not so distant. Both present life not as it is, but as one imagines it to be. In focusing on the affectivity of photography, my work compliments recent interventions in the field of visual anthropology that have considered peoples' expressive, oral, and haptic relation to photographs past and present. This paper is drawn from my book project, Portrait Photography in Senegal, which considers the early global history of photography in Senegal, mid century studio photography, and work by recent artists that responds to the visual archive of images of and by Africans. My work engages larger issues in the humanities; to read ethnographic work is to develop empathy, to learn from the past, and to understand how meaning is created.

Projected climate change under different scenarios in central region of Punjab, India

The regional climate model viz. PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used to downscale the future climatic data for the central region of Punjab, India.The projected data for the 21st century under different scenarios was corrected by using the climate data recorded for the 1971-1990 at meteorological station of Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana (Central Region of Punjab) and baseline data derived from PRECIS model. The corrected data was then analyzed on annual, seasonal and monthly basis to quantify the changes in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall. The projected data showed increase inmaximum and minimum temperature where as an irregular trend in rainfall was observed.It was projected that maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall would increase linearly under the A1B scenario for the mid century. At the end of the century, the rise in maximum and minimum temperature in B2 scenario will continue but at slower rate than the A1B and A2 scenarios. There would be deficit of rainfall by 78 and 30 % during the winter season under the A2 and B2 scenarios of the end century.

SOPHOCLES THE KŌMŌIDOUMENOS: TWO FORGOTTEN COMIC FRAGMENTS

In his biography of Polemon, head of the Academy from 313 to 269, Diogenes Laertius comments on Polemon's fondness for Sophocles after detailing Polemon's relationship with his predecessor, Xenocrates (4.19–20): ἐῴκει δὴ ὁ Πολέμων κατὰ πάντα ἐζηλωκέναι τὸν Ξενοκράτην· καὶ ἐρασθῆναι αὐτοῦ φησιν Ἀρίστιππος ἐν τῷ τετάρτῳ Περὶ παλαιᾶς τρυφῆς. ἀεὶ γοῦν ἐμέμνητο ὁ Πολέμων αὐτοῦ, τήν τ' ἀκακίαν καὶ τὸν αὐχμὸν ἐνεδέδυτο τἀνδρὸς καὶ τὸ βάρος οἱονεὶ Δώριός τις οἰκονομία. ἦν δὲ καὶ φιλοσοφοκλῆς, καὶ μάλιστα ἐν ἐκείνοις ὅπου κατὰ τὸν κωμικὸν τὰ ποιήματα αὐτῷκύων τις ἐδόκει συμποιεῖν Μολοττικός,καὶ ἔνθα ἦν κατὰ τὸν Φρύνιχονοὐ γλύξις οὐδ' ὑπόχυτος, ἀλλὰ Πράμνιος.ἔλεγεν οὖν τὸν μὲν Ὅμηρον ἐπικὸν εἶναι Σοφοκλέα, τὸν δὲ Σοφοκλέα Ὅμηρον τραγικόν.It would seem that Polemon imitated Xenocrates in all respects. In the fourth book of On the Luxury of the Ancients, Aristippos says that he loved him. Certainly Polemon kept him in mind and, like him, wore that simple, dry dignity that is proper of the Dorian mode. He also loved Sophocles, particularly in those passages where it seemed as if, in the words of the comic poet, ‘a Molossian dog co-authored’ plays with him and where the poet was, in the words of Phrynichus, ‘neither bland nor doctored but Pramnian’. Thus he would call Homer the epic Sophocles and Sophocles the tragic Homer. The main source of Diogenes Laertius' Life of Polemon is Antigonus of Carystus, who was active in Athens and (apparently) Pergamon around the mid third century. In addition to being generally considered a reliable author, Antigonus is also chronologically close to Polemon's lifetime. He is also the source of Philodemus' History of Philosophers, a work preserved by two important papyri from Herculaneum. Philodemus, too, mentions Polemon's admiration for Sophocles, although he gives a shorter version than Diogenes Laertius: λέγεται δὲ καὶ φιλοσοφοκλῆς γενέσθαι καὶ μά || λιστα τὸ ΠΑ[.]Α[……….] | τῆς φωνῆς καὶ παρα[….] ἀποδέχεσθαι. In Dorandi's translation, Philodemus records that ‘si dice che [Polemone] fu ammiratore di Sofocle e soprattutto ne apprezzò l'audacia (del suono della lingua) e ciò che suonava duro’.

Bede's sources for his references to ‘hides’ in theEcclesiastical Historyand theHistory of the Abbots

A comprehensive analysis of Bede's references to ‘hides’ provides insights into his sources. Bede's references are of two different types, revealing two different kinds of sources, which might most simply be termed ‘charter type’ and ‘tribute type’. Examining the first set reveals that in writing the Historia Ecclesiastica and especially the Historia Abbatum, Bede had access to documentary sources, some of the language of which is probably preserved in his works. In the absence of separately surviving Northumbrian charters, these elements give hints about the nature and content of such texts. The second group, the ‘tribute type’, points to Bede's possession of a document along the lines of the ‘Tribal hidage’, probably originating in one of the periods of Northumbrian hegemony in the mid seventh century.

Near-and Long-Term Projected Changes in Extreme Weather Events in Ludhiana District of Indian Punjab

Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be derived from climate models representing possible future climate status. Agricultural productivity largely depends on the vagaries of the weather and in particular the extreme weather events. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to study near-term (up to about mid century) and long-term (end of the 21st century) projections in meteorological parameters at Ludhiana using PRECIS-model under A1B, A2 and B2 scenario. The long-term projections indicate an increase in the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall from the baseline (1971–1990) at Ludhiana under different scenarios. The numbers of days with maximum temperature of higher than 44°C are likely to rise and may go up to 1189 and 2033 days under A1B scenario in near-and long-term respectively as compared to the baseline value of 1114 days. The numbers of days with minimum temperature of less than 0°C are likely to be none as compared to baseline (692 days). However, the numbers of days with minimum temperature higher than 7°C are predicted to rise in long term A1B scenario. The days with extreme rainfall of more than 200 mm would increase to 7 days in long term over the baseline value of 0 day. The higher near-term and long-term annual, kharif, monsoon and winter rainfall are expected with exception of rabi which is projected to decline by the end of the 21st century under A2 and B2 scenarios.

Estimation of Soil Loss Under Changing Climatic Scenarios in Semi-Arid Watersheds

Spatial and temporal estimation of soil loss is very essential for the sustainable planning and management of watersheds. In the present study, an attempt was made to estimate the soil loss spatially and temporally using RUSLE from a dry semi-arid watershed (Goparajpalli in Warangal District) and a wet semi-arid watershed (Seethagondi in Adilabad District) under changing climatic scenarios using PRECIS data. In the dry semi-arid watershed, the annual rainfall varied from 390 to 1181 mm with a mean value of 735 mm and a mean erosivity of 6260 MJ mm/ha/h/y. The mean annual rainfall during the base line period (1961–1990), mid (2021–2050) and end centuries (2071–2098) in this watershed were 738, 835 and 777 mm, respectively. The mean erosivity during these periods were 5657, 9253 and 7170 MJ mm/ha/h/y and soil loss from crop land were 2.39, 4.02 and 3.14 t/ha/y, respectively. In the wet semi-arid watershed, the annual rainfall varied from 508 to 1351 mm with a mean value of 950 mm and a mean erosivity of 6789 MJ mm/ha/h/y. The mean annual rainfall during base line, mid and end centuries in this wet semi-arid watershed were 956, 1088 and 1124 mm and erosivities were 10547, 14437 and 14755 MJ mm/ha/h/y, respectively. Similarly, the soil loss from crop land during these periods were 9.18, 13.11 and 14.11 t/ha/y. Even though, the soil loss from the dry semi-arid watershed was relatively lower than the wet semi-arid watershed, it showed an increasing trend in the mid century and a decreasing trend in the end century whereas, in the wet semi-arid watershed, it showed an increasing trend in both mid and end centuries. Considerable spatial variation in the mean annual soil loss was observed in both the wet and dry semi-arid watersheds during base line period, mid and end centuries.

Destruction and Universals in William Carlos Williams’s The Wedge

This article is part of a larger study on the cultural poetics of mid-century modernism, using a series of American and German postwar examples, both literary and visual.1 My literary examples are, at the outset, a series of late modernist American poets writing before, during, and after the end of the war, the destruction of European cities, and the disclosure of the Holocaust, including T. S. Eliot's Four Quartets (1936-43), H.D.'s Trilogy (1946), Williams's Paterson (1946-51, 1958), Ezra Pound's Pisan Cantos (1948), Charles Olson's Kingfishers (1950), Robert Duncan's An Essay at War (1966), and Sylvia Plath's Lady Lazarus (1965).2 This series of mid-century modernism advances from an anticipatory wish for destruction to an anguished positing of that which succeeds it: a historically contingent demand for universals. In each of these modernist, postmodernist, humanist or antihumanist works, a wish for destruction is the prior condition for positing (or rejecting) any sort of universal.3 On this evidence, I propose: there is no universal without destruction. Critical Theory's dialectic between reason and unreason itself anticipates the historical construction of ethical universals promulgated at the Nuremberg Trials, while it makes a common caused with modernists who either negotiated these perversions or sought a way out through an invocation of universality, however imagined or represented. The poetry of mid-century modernists and what Theodor W. Adorno termed the new categorical imperative of the Nuremberg Trials connects via Critical Theory to delineate the constructedness of universals themselves.4 In an age that has flagrantly renounced the Nuremberg standards-for instance, in the detention of persons seen as without rights in Guantanamo-or that sees universals as merely the mystification of global capitalism, such a critique is timely and necessary.Anticipatory DestructionWilliam Carlos Williams, that mild-mannered physician, is my prime exemplar of an anticipatory poetics of destruction. The necessity of renewal- by means of a poetry founded on the senses and on the overturning of tradition-is thematized throughout early Williams, from Kora in Hell's negative mimesis to Spring and All and The Descent of Winter's dialectic of creation and destruction. This dialectic is central to the construction of art in Spring and All, and throughout Williams's work: decay of cathedrals / is efflorescent / through the phenomenal / growth of movie houses // whose catholicity is / progress since / destruction and creation / are simultaneous (CP1 213); modernity elicits violent change and is only comprehensible once that is recognized. In a prose section, Williams explains: word is not liberated, therefore able to communicate release from the fixities which destroy it until it is accurately tuned to the fact which giving it reality, by its own reality establishes its own freedom from the necessity of a word, thus freeing it and dynamizing it at the same time (CP1 235). Only by returning to material existence can the word be liberated from being fixated on it: poetry is the destruction of the condition of fixity by means of encounter with the material. In Williams's modernism, the necessity of destruction elevates the material and particular to the status of a universal, yielding the so much depends upon of the red wheelbarrow.The war-time publication of The Wedge produced a volume that, in its theoretical framing, objectivist techniques, and thematic disjunction, pursues the same destructive renewal as Williams's avant-garde volumes, but later in time.5 At mid century and in middle age-well-published but undervalued-Williams no longer sees the dialectic of creation and destruction as merely aesthetic but as a fact of life in history. The aesthetic is where we comprehend the creativity of destruction; destruction is the prior condition for the vitality of art. Throughout his mixed collection of atemporal lyrics and meditative verse, themes of destruction emerge out of nowhere; a feared event (and not only the war) seems to be rapidly approaching-in fact it may already have arrived and there is nothing we can do but record it. …

SANDY COASTS OF INTERIOR SEAS UNDER LEVEL RISE: ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

Modern coastal zone is an open morpholithodynamics system characterized by a set of constant and variable parameters. Estimations of these parameters allows to assess the future development of the whole system. Constant parameters are geological and geomorphologic composition of the coast and its wind-wave mode. Variables are long-period fluctuations of water level due to eustatic variations, tectonic and glacio-isostatic movements. Prediction of the evolution of the coastal zone includes the assessment of the trends of the variable parameters of the morpholithodynamics system. In this study, the above problem is analyzed on the examples of south-eastern coast of the Baltic Sea and the Russian sector of the Caspian sea. The possible rise of the Baltic Sea level by 1.0–1.5 m by the end of the XXI century will result in the further destruction of sea coasts, flooding, waterlogging and salinization of coastal areas, which will lead to negative consequences for industrial, municipal and agricultural infrastructures. In the case of the Caspian Sea, the majority of its coasts regardless of the underwater slope has transformed into lagoons due to the sea level rise in recent decades. Coastal erosion will start only when the sea level reaches the 1929 yr stage from which the sea level drop started in the mid XX century. At this stage, a noticeable change of surface slope occurs. At the majority of Caspian coasts activation of coastal erosion will occur when the sea level rise above – 26 m a.s.l.