Near-and Long-Term Projected Changes in Extreme Weather Events in Ludhiana District of Indian Punjab

Abstract

Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be derived from climate models representing possible future climate status. Agricultural productivity largely depends on the vagaries of the weather and in particular the extreme weather events. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to study near-term (up to about mid century) and long-term (end of the 21st century) projections in meteorological parameters at Ludhiana using PRECIS-model under A1B, A2 and B2 scenario. The long-term projections indicate an increase in the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall from the baseline (1971–1990) at Ludhiana under different scenarios. The numbers of days with maximum temperature of higher than 44°C are likely to rise and may go up to 1189 and 2033 days under A1B scenario in near-and long-term respectively as compared to the baseline value of 1114 days. The numbers of days with minimum temperature of less than 0°C are likely to be none as compared to baseline (692 days). However, the numbers of days with minimum temperature higher than 7°C are predicted to rise in long term A1B scenario. The days with extreme rainfall of more than 200 mm would increase to 7 days in long term over the baseline value of 0 day. The higher near-term and long-term annual, kharif, monsoon and winter rainfall are expected with exception of rabi which is projected to decline by the end of the 21st century under A2 and B2 scenarios.