Since it has the advantages of high production efficiency, no shunting effects, and the ability to arrange solder joints on narrow locations without the limitation of point distance, projection welding of nut has been widely used in the automotive industry. This paper presents a new welding quality prediction and analysis framework by using regression analysis techniques. The relationship between the welding parameters (welding time, welding current and electrode force) and the Pull-out load of the M6 welded square nut and the 1.5 mm thick pickled hot-rolled steel was obtained by multiple nonlinear regression analysis. The influence and interaction of welding parameters on the Pull-out load are discussed. Using this regression model, a better combination of process parameters can be obtained. The mechanical properties, microstructure and microhardness of welded joints were also investigated.