Metropolitan Level Research Articles

US real estate inflation prediction: Exchange rates and net foreign assets

The recent housing price inflation forecasting literature has focused on the use of domestic variables for prediction of housing price inflation. However, around 7% of all US housing sales are attributed to international buyers; a potentially important market force. Further, international finance theory finds a role for foreign savings shocks in causing the housing price bubble of the last decade. Under floating exchange rate regimes, the Dornbusch model predicts shocks to domestic or foreign economies will be reflected in exchange rates. When exchange rates are fixed, shocks are likely to affect the net foreign asset holdings. In this study, I examine the role of exchange rates returns and the net change in foreign asset holdings in improving US real estate inflation forecasts. I conduct in-sample and out-of-sample comparison of forecasting models relative to an autoregressive baseline model. I find that the inclusion of foreign sector variables can improve the US real estate inflation forecasts by up to 40%. This improvement is mostly driven by changes in the net foreign asset holdings at longer horizons. The results are robust to samples at the metropolitan level although with different gains.

Contested causes of flooding in poor urban areas in Accra, Ghana: an actor-oriented perspective

It is well known that urbanisation and climate change are likely to induce more floods in existing flood-prone African cities. Previous contributions on the causes of flooding in urban areas mostly do not consider the actors involved in adaptation and do not acknowledge the diversity of knowledge they possess. In this study, the causes of urban floods in an African city are explored from an actor-oriented perspective. The Kendall coefficient of concordance method is used to analyse interviews with household members and community leaders living in flood-prone communities as well as technocrats involved in public flood adaptation at the metropolitan level. The level of agreement on the causes of flooding is low among the actors, making the case for integrating informal actors into the formal flood adaptation structures at the metropolitan level. This will harness the diversity of knowledge on how flood risk unfolds for the purpose of local adaptation to urban floods in African cities.

On the Street During the Great Recession: Exploring the Relationship Between Foreclosures and Homelessness

ABSTRACTDuring the Great Recession, policymakers and advocates for the poor raised concerns that the foreclosure crisis, which forced millions from their homes, was causally linked to the concurrent rise in homelessness. Despite these warnings—and the widespread consequences of the economic collapse on the housing market—no national-level research has evaluated the connection between foreclosures and homelessness. In this study, I combine homelessness data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) with foreclosure data from RealtyTrac to analyze changes over time in both phenomena on the metropolitan level. I find that foreclosures within a given year are significantly correlated with homelessness in the following year net of controls for demographic, housing, and economic characteristics, regional time trends, and metropolitan area fixed effects. This relationship is strongest among single homeless individuals (compared with families) and the unsheltered population. These descriptive findings carry important implications for our understanding of the Great Recession’s consequences and demonstrate the need for expanded data collection on homeless populations, with which we can better understand whether and how foreclosure leads to homelessness.

Portfolio solutions, bulk sales of bank-owned properties, and the reemergence of racially exploitative land contracts

Since the onset of the foreclosure crisis, scholars have examined large-scale investor acquisition of mortgage-reverted properties in numerous U.S. housing markets. This work is generally framed by an interest in the massive shift from homeownership to rentership and the implications of this transition for low- and moderate-income households and neighborhoods subject to the lingering effects of the crisis. This article extends this literature by examining the national geography of contract-for-deed sales initiated by large-scale investors acquiring properties from federal foreclosure inventories. Contract-for-deed sales are historically associated with exploitative high-cost transactions targeting credit-starved communities of color, but researchers have noted their return in places hit hard by foreclosures. Drawing on a national dataset of real estate transaction records, we track the size and location of these contract-for-deed dealers' inventories. We then restrict our analysis to properties sold by Fannie Mae to known contract sellers to address the question of whether these sales were disproportionately concentrated in cities and neighborhoods with large numbers of Black inhabitants. We find race is a significant predictor of metropolitan level foreclosure sales to contract sellers and that predominantly Black neighborhoods saw a disproportionate number of foreclosures sold to contract sellers.

Section 8 Vouchers and Rent Limits: Do Small Area Fair Market Rent Limits Increase Access to Opportunity Neighborhoods? An Early Evaluation

ABSTRACTOne critique of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)’s Housing Choice Voucher program is that its maximum rent limit is set at the metropolitan level, making more expensive neighborhoods effectively off limits to households who receive rental assistance. As a result, the design of the program limits a voucher household’s access to opportunity neighborhood. In response, HUD created the Small Area Fair Market Rent (SAFMR) demonstration program, which calculates the maximum voucher rent at the zip code level so that HUD’s rent limits more closely align with local neighborhood rents. In theory, this program should improve a voucher household’s choice set and location outcomes. Looking at changes in the location of beneficiaries in the six sites that participated in the SAFMR demonstration program, we find a significant amount of regional variation in the results. Specifically, introduction of the SAFMR rent calculations results in voucher households living in higher opportunity neighborhoods in Dallas, Texas, in lower opportunity neighborhoods in Chattanooga, Tennessee, and mixed effects in other areas. These mixed results highlight some of the potential incremental benefits of the program and reinforce the importance of viewing this policy over a longer period of time, and in the context of other constraints voucher households face in accessing neighborhood opportunity.

Governance of metropolitan areas for delivery of public services in Latin America

One of the key issues at metropolitan level is the provision of public services and this paper highlights the importance of understanding the governance of public services in the context of increasing urbanization and decentralization. This paper provides a comparative analysis on metropolitan governance in Latin America by analysing specific case studies. The objective is to identify how the governance setting in metropolitan areas shapes the process anthe results of providing public services to wider population. We examine metropolitan governance by employing a 3x3x3 model as a framework for addressing key issues about urban services delivery. Bogota, Lima and Mexico City are the metropolitan areas selected. Secondly, we focus on three sectors: transport, solid waste collection and water. Finally, the analysis focuses in three aspects of governance: coordination, financial sustainability and coverage and quality. The data collection process involved field research in Bogota, Lima and Mexico City.

Barcelona / A tale of two rivers

In Barcelona, the connection between the city and its natural environment is very clear in multiple images linking the mountains to the sea. However, what is much less perceived, is the presence, and importance, of the two major rivers entrapping the city on either side. The Besòs and Llobregat rivers have long played a crucial role in the development of the city, not only for their historic importance during the industrialization period, but also for their presence as green axis, much needed for citizens, as well as for urban renewal. Today both rivers contribute to generate vast green spaces at metropolitan level. Throughout this article, we will focus on the transformation of these two rivers over the last thirty years and will examine their situation before human intervention, projects and implementations took place. Undoubtedly, the renovation of these spaces into a green belt for the metropolitan area of Barcelona have strengthened the relationship between natural spaces and urban infrastructure. Furthermore, their recovery vindicated the identity of the surrounding areas, which have always been related to water.

Location strategy in cluster networks

This article investigates the location strategies of Canadian and Chinese multisite firms in international and domestic investment decisions at the metropolitan level. By integrating research from international business studies and economic geography, we combine knowledge-based understandings of multinational corporations and industrial clusters to develop propositions regarding the location strategies of multisite firms in cluster networks. It is argued that firms from clusters are more likely to adopt knowledge strategies than firms from other areas and that they tend to choose cluster locations that are specialized in the same or similar industries to achieve their knowledge goals – both in domestic and international investment decisions. We establish and analyze a database of 3500 investment cases within and between Canada and China to test our propositions. The results show that firms in knowledge-intensive industrial environments with substantial business experience are especially inclined to direct their investments to clusters. Consistent with our emphasis of the subnational as opposed to the national scale, we find that cluster-of-origin effects are more important than country-of-origin effects in explaining firms’ investment choices in clusters. These findings support the idea that multisite firms, particularly MNEs, leverage local knowledge pools by strategically locating affiliates across clusters.

Multi-criteria decision-making for sustainable metropolitan cities assessment

The recent development of metropolitan cities, especially in Europe, requires an effective integrated management of city services, infrastructure, and communication networks at a metropolitan level. A preliminary step towards a proper organizational and management strategy of the metropolitan city is the analysis, benchmarking and optimization of the metropolitan areas through a set of indicators coherent with the overall sustainability objective of the metropolitan city. This paper proposes the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process multi-criteria decision making technique for application in the smart metropolitan city context, with the aim of analysing the sustainable development of energy, water and environmental systems, through a set of objective performance indicators. Specifically, the 35 indicators defined for the Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems Index framework are used. The application of the approach to the real case study of four metropolitan areas (Bari, Bitonto, Mola, and Molfetta) in the city of Bari (Italy) shows its usefulness for the local government in benchmarking metropolitan areas and providing decision indications on how to formulate the sustainable development strategy of the metropolitan city. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process characteristics, the results highlight that although one specific area (Mola in the considered case) is globally ranked at the first place, it is only ranked first with respect to some dimensions. Such a result has strong implications for the metropolitan city's manager who has the possibility to identify and implement targeted actions, which may be designed ad hoc to improve specific dimensions based on the current state of the city, thus maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of the actions undertaken for the sustainable development of energy, water and environmental systems of the whole metropolitan city.

Regional politics of an urban age: Can Europe\u2019s former industrial cities create a new industrial economy to combat climate change and social unravelling?

Across Europe, cities are struggling to cope with the loss of industrial jobs; decay of urban infrastructure; in-migration (most often from poorer regions); outward sprawl pressures; traffic congestion and transport bottlenecks. The environmental consequences of continuing urban development are deeply threatening to the survival of both city and countryside. Growing anti-immigrant sentiments, sluggish growth and intense inequality provoke a level of disaffection and marginalisation that threaten social cohesion, with highly divisive consequences. This article, based on a ten year study of seven European cities, argues that recovery is under way in ex-industrial cities with major reinvestment from national and European funds. Transformative deals and innovations have created new jobs and led to population regrowth after years of decline. There are hopeful signs that in different parts of Europe–North, South, East and West–a new phase of growth in core cities is emerging, based on university-civic business partnerships; reuse and remodelling of existing, devalued infrastructure; reinvestment and expansion of rail and water networks; the growth in advanced manufacturing; reduced energy use and the spread of renewable energy; innovative research and technology; city centre and neighbourhood restoration and integration. Europe’s former industrial cities are part of much bigger metropolitan areas or city regions and some benefits are spreading out from core cities to more peripheral areas, although this is often swamped by poverty and unemployment, skills mismatch and inadequate reinvestment. A complex patchwork of changes is driven by a new kind of city leadership; growing collaboration between the core and periphery of cities; central government and Europe-wide concern both to devolve more powers and reduce dependence on central funds; regional devolution and metropolitan level programmes–particularly in areas of skills, research and development, infrastructure, and umbrella services backed with cash and political enthusiasm. Cities are recovering across the world’s most urban continent by combining reuse and new inventions, which deliver more sustainable economies.

Trajectories of Affective Balance 1 Year After Traumatic Injury: Associations with Resilience, Social Support, and Mild Traumatic Brain Injury

We examined trajectories of affective balance (AB) among 488 individuals admitted to a metropolitan Level 1 trauma center for serious physical injury. AB was measured prior to hospital discharge, and at three, six, and 12 months post-discharge. Multilevel modeling (MLM) was used to investigate whether initial demographic variables, injury severity, the occurrence of a mild traumatic brain injury (TBI), self-reported resilience and social support predicted AB trajectories. Participants’ change in resilience and social support over the 12-month period were also tested as predictors. The results revealed a large amount of between-individual variation in the first year post-injury. Initial resilience, resilience change, initial social support, and social support change predicted AB 1 year later. Changes in resilience and social support predicted the linear growth in AB over time. Demographic and injury-related variables did not significantly predict AB, nor did the diagnosis of a mild TBI. Participants’ self-perceived resilience and social support scores changed substantially, for better or worse, over the 12-month period. AB was strongly associated with these changes, even when controlling for initial resilience and social support: Increases in either resilience or social support were significantly associated with increases in AB over time. The final model accounted for 33.2% of the between-individual variance in final scores and 46.9% of the variance in linear growth. These results provide additional evidence of the beneficial effects of existing levels of resilience and social support following traumatic injury, and these characteristics are better predictors of AB than injury severity, basic demographic data, and the presence of a mild head injury. Furthermore, changes that may occur in social support and self-perceived resilience are associated with significant changes in AB, and these factors should be considered in post-discharge plans to facilitate subsequent adjustment.

L’economia digitale alla prova dell’interesse collettivo

The ability of the web to be a mean of self-representation of each individual increases the problems of the traditional unions that, for a long time now, have been looking for strategies to face workers’ needs in emerging sectors.The coalitions of digital workers have been developed outside the trade unionism. These aggregations try to gain visibility especially in the public arena through dialogue with local institutions and city government.In the theoretical perspective, the occurrence of synthesis and standardization’s elements is essential to identify a collective interest. The relevant differences among workers on the socio-economical level, on the contrary, affect the possibility to place the aggregations of digital workers inside the traditional unionism.However, the difficulty in tracing collective interests outside the area of dependent work is no more justified in the theoretical perspective as much as in the logic of union representation. The analysts of social networks and industrial relations have emphasized the usefulness of a revival of representation of historical unions through an alliance including collective players of the digital economy, civil society and public opinion.The coalition experiences in progress at the metropolitan level can be favourably assessed, as they are aimed at set up a new sphere of socio-political influence for unions, by opening new spaces for collective bargaining. Social coalitions can assist the transfer and mutual exchange of information and organizational resources, with positive results in both directions.

The Role of Accessibility to Public Transport and Quality of Walking Environment on Urban Equity: The Case of Santiago de Chile

Most studies of public transport accessibility have focused on proximity to stops, walking distances or time to reach them. This approach ignores other accessibility barriers, such as the quality of the urban environment of these walks. The aim of this research is to analyze both accessibility to public transport stops and the quality of the urban walking environment, exploring fairness issues across the city in terms of these two dimensions. The proposed methodology considers the definition of two indicators: walking accessibility to public transport stops and quality of the walking environment, considering different attributes and dimensions. These indicators are later used to develop a fairness analysis at the local and metropolitan level, using Lorenz curves, Gini coefficient, and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) poverty measures. A diagnosis based on these indicators for Santiago de Chile allows us to suggest public policy priorities to improve accessibility to public transport and promote modal shift. The results show that 12 out of 34 municipalities in Santiago are deprived of one or both dimensions, not managing to achieve minimum fairness standards. Moreover, since a correlation between low income and poor access and urban space quality is detected, urban fairness across the city would benefit from centralized urban policies not depending on the budget of each administrative division.

Multi-level urban form and commuting mode share in rail station areas across the United States; a seemingly unrelated regression approach

Transit-friendly development has recently become a popular strategy to increase transit mode share in the United States. Many policies and programs have been proposed and implemented across the country to increase residential and job densities, walkability, and mixed-use development around major transit stations in order to encourage transit ridership. Using data from all rail transit stations across the United States, this paper presents an analysis of commute mode share for people who live within walking distance to rail transit with regard to the urban form at both neighborhood and regional levels. This study provides additional evidence to better understand how transit accessibility and urban design jointly aim to encourage transit use and reduce driving in rail stations areas across the U.S. and thus cope with ever-growing traffic congestion in urban areas. It is one of the first analyses to examine the relationships between urban form measured at both local/neighborhood and metropolitan levels and the commuting mode share across major transit station areas nationwide. It utilizes a Seemingly Unrelated Regression modeling method (SUR) -which is based on generalized least squares (GLS)- and estimates three primary modes of auto, transit, and walk/bike.Findings suggest that urban form at both station area (local effect) and at the whole metropolitan area (regional effect) influences commuting patterns. Factors such as population and employment densities, walkability, and transit accessibility at both local and regional levels are significantly associated with commute mode share. Job accessibility via transit in the entire region (measured by the number of jobs located within 45 min from a transit stop) is another important factor encouraging transit ridership for every-day commuting trips.

Tres tipos de comercio. Tres maneras de influenciar la esfera pública de los barrios

According to urban theory, commerce and public spaces are historically related to each other. Based on this premise, this paper analyzes a market, a shopping center and a mall. The goal of this research is to identify the key factors that turn these shopping precincts into public spaces and contribute to the public sphere in Santiago, Chile, at least within the context of the limitations associated with their private nature. To date, these three typologies have been the focus of intense debate. However, there are few studies of the public life that takes place in these spaces, especially when considering that they coexist simultaneously in the city, claiming a space within it. This research describes the physical-spatial and administrative characteristics of these three cases in order to contribute to the strengthening of public policies in urban design. Likewise, commerce is studied in relation to accessibility patterns at metropolitan level and the types of markets that aim to attract different users and promote the public nature of these spaces.

Evolution of the efficiency of metropolitan public transport areas during the financial crisis and recovery in Spain

Abstract Urban dispersion is a phenomenon that has taken place in most European urban areas since the second half of the 20th century. From the point of view of mobility, urban sprawl makes it difficult to provide a quality public transport (PT) service, thus increasing the use of private vehicles. In addition, during the financial crisis that has shaken Europe since 2007, cities have lost population whereas peri-urban areas have grown and there have also been significant economic cuts in the public sector, which has substantially affected the efficiency of PT. This study uses demographic and socioeconomic data from ten Spanish urban areas to assess the evolution of PT systems during the recession and the start of economic recovery. The analysis is carried out through the use of technical indicators (supply and demand) and economic indicators (fares and financing) at both urban and metropolitan level. Based on the calculated indicators and using a cluster analysis, groups of cities with common mobility patterns are obtained. The different patterns observed reflect the main results of different strategies in PT management. In this way we try to extract some lessons from the crisis about PT systems.

Greater Paris and its lessons for metropolitan strategic planning

A new regional development programme emerged for the Greater Paris region (Ile-de-France), in the decade from 2005 to 2015. Previously, the years from 1965 to 1970 had set guidelines for developments over four decades, including new towns, airports, a new commuter rail system (the RER network) and with a strategy to boost Paris’ financial sector and its military–industrial complex in the city’s western suburb. In recent years, a new and coherent project has emerged with the creation of large, specialized economic zones, the densification of inner suburbs and the construction of four new Metro lines to double the length of the existing subway network. However, the urban integration of office space and retail properties, together with socio-spatial inequalities, has remained unaddressed. This article proposes a critical reading of the planning process in Greater Paris and examines the new forms of strategic planning at the metropolitan level.

Revisiting Supply and Demand Indexes in Real Estate

A common definition of liquidity in real estate investment is the ability to sell property assets quickly at full value, as reflected by transaction volume. The present paper makes methodological and conceptual contributions in the study and understanding of liquidity. First, we extend the Fisher et al. (2003, 2007) methodology for the separate tracking of changes in reservation prices on the demand (potential buyers) and supply (potential sellers) sides of the asset market. We show how to apply the methodology to a repeat sales indexing framework, allowing application to typical commercial property transaction price datasets, which lack appraisal valuations or complete data regarding property characteristics. We also use a Bayesian, structural time series approach to estimate the indexes. These methodological enhancements enable much more granular supply and demand index estimation, including at the metropolitan level. Second, we propose a Liquidity Metric based on the indexes, and show that the normal liquidity dynamic in commercial property asset markets is “pro-cyclical”, that is, price and trading volume tend to move together, with demand tending to lead supply. But we also observe an “anomalous” dynamic that occurs about 25 percent of the time, in which the Liquidity Metric declines while consummated prices are still rising. This anomalous dynamic is often associated with the end of a period of rapid growth in market values.

Monitoring evolving urban cluster systems using DMSP/OLS nighttime light data: a case study of the Yangtze River Delta region, China

The assessment of the dynamic urban structure has been affected by lack of timely and accurate spatial information for a long period, which has hindered the measurements of structural continuity at the macroscale. Defense meteorological satellite program’s operational linescan system (DMSP/OLS) nighttime light (NTL) data provide an ideal source for urban information detection with a long-time span, short-time interval, and wide coverage. In this study, we extracted the physical boundaries of urban clusters from corrected NTL images and quantitatively analyzed the structure of the urban cluster system based on rank-size distribution, spatial metrics, and Mann–Kendall trend test. Two levels of urban cluster systems in the Yangtze River Delta region (YRDR) were examined. We found that (1) in the entire YRDR, the urban cluster system showed a periodic process, with a significant trend of even distribution before 2007 but an unequal growth pattern after 2007, and (2) at the metropolitan level, vast disparities exist in four metropolitan areas for the fluctuations of Pareto’s exponent, the speed of cluster expansion, and the dominance of core cluster. The results suggest that the extracted urban cluster information from NTL data effectively reflect the evolving nature of regional urbanization, which in turn can aid in the planning of cities and help achieve more sustainable regional development.

Transit-oriented Development in the metropolitan governance a comparison between the Colombian case and the South Korean experience

This research studies the process and the political decisions that were carried out in the creation of Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) in order to respond to a territorial reorganization associated to a public transport supply that resulted in a model of transit-oriented development (TOD). Contemporaneously, the paper studies the normative framework that governs the metropolitan areas in Colombia and its metropolitan public transport, as well as, it studies the structuring of the metropolitan collective public transport system of the Aburra Valley Metropolitan Area (AVMA). The aim of the research is to understand the process of territorial and transport policy decisions that were held in the SMA, which makes it an example and case of study to contextualize a reorganization of the collective public transportation system in the Colombian case, specifically in the AVMA. The objectives of the research are identifying the regulatory principles of territorial and transport planning, strategies, and instruments used for setting the policy decisions that have a binding character on the operating entities of the collective public transport system. In order to put the characteristics of the AVMA collective public transport bus system in evidence, a comparison between SMA and AVMA was developed. The implications emerged from this comparison are used to generate guidelines through three themes: a) governance; b) financial system and c) operational aspects. The guidelines hope point the reorganization of the public transportation bus system and a future transition to a model of Transport - and People - Oriented Development in the Colombian metropolitan level context.