The Future of Autonomous Vehicles: Lessons from the Literature on Technology Adoption

Abstract

AbstractThe introduction and adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs) will likely reshape the transportation system and many economic activities. The economic literature on technology adoption, based on studies in agriculture and other sectors, provides lessons on the diffusion of AVs and its social and economic impacts. We rely on the threshold model of diffusion, where heterogeneous agents make decisions pursuing their self‐interests. Applications of the threshold model point to case studies of other technologies where one can gain information and make predictions about the future of AVs. We find that private ownership of AVs may prevail after a transition period, as was the case in other technologies like computers, tractors, and conventional vehicles. With technological progress, the cost of privately owning AVs may decline. Further, there will be an increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita, there may be more vehicles on the road, and perhaps the transportation user‐base will expand to include those currently facing limited mobility. Congestion is likely to depend on the tradeoff between the expansion of VMT and increased efficiency of AVs to communicate and help regulate traffic. Furthermore, differentiation of vehicles will increase as driving time becomes freed for other activities. These trends may lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions and expansion of the transportation sector. Finally, the technology will evolve and may result in complementary innovations needing to be addressed, including the “last 10 feet” problem. It is evident that the future of the transportation system governed by AVs is most likely not going to be sustainable. This necessitates the importance of developing and enforcing rigorous policies at the metropolitan level and TNC levels to ensure a sustainable evolution of the future of transportation mobility.