Meteorological Drought Events Research Articles

Characteristics of Meteorological Drought Evolution in the Yangtze River Basin

Amid global climate change, recurrent drought events pose significant challenges to regional water resource management and the sustainability of socio-economic growth. Thus, understanding drought characteristics and regional development patterns is essential for effective drought monitoring, prediction, and the creation of robust adaptation strategies. Most prior research has analyzed drought events independently in spatial and temporal dimensions, often overlooking their dynamic nature. In this study, we employ a three-dimensional methodology that accounts for spatiotemporal continuity to identify and extract meteorological drought events based on a 3-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI3). Measured by the SPEI3 index, the incidence of drought increased in the middle part of the basin, especially in some parts of Sichuan and Yunnan province, and the frequency of drought events decreased in the upper reaches. We evaluate drought events within the Yangtze River basin from 1980 to 2016 by examining five variables: chronology, extent, severity, duration, and epicenter locations. The results show that a total of 97 persisting drought events lasting at least 3 months have been identified in Yangtze River basin. Most events have a duration between 4 and 7 months. The findings indicate that while the number of drought events in the Yangtze River basin has remained unchanged, the intensity, duration, and severity of these events have shown a slight increase from 1980 to 2016. The drought events gradually moved from the western and southeastern parts of the basin to the central region. The most severe drought event occurred between January 2011 and October 2011, with a duration of 10 months and an affected area of 0.94 million km2, impacting over fifty percent of the basin. Changes in wetness and dryness in the Yangtze River basin are closely related to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, with a positive correlation between the intensity of cold events and the probability of extreme drought. This study enhances our understanding of the dynamics and evolution of drought events in the Yangtze River basin, providing crucial insights for better managing water resources and developing effective adaptation strategies.

Severe and long-lasting meteorological drought events develop from precipitation deficits of mixed continental and oceanic origin

Drought is one of the most damaging hydroclimatic hazards, impacting environmental systems and socioeconomic sectors. Therefore, understanding the physical mechanisms that cause drought events is of critical importance. Here we investigate the influence of oceanic and continental moisture deficits on global meteorological drought events in recent decades, utilizing a Lagrangian dispersion model to track the origin of precipitation deficits leading to droughts. Additionally, meteorological drought events between 1980 and 2018 were segmented based on a three-dimension algorithm considering spatial extent, duration, and magnitude of drought events. Severe meteorological drought events exhibit mixed contribution of precipitation deficits from both continental and oceanic sources. This highlights the importance of considering both types of deficits in understanding severe meteorological droughts. Comparative analysis across time periods shows a consistent pattern in the dominant mixed contribution of precipitation deficits. There is no relevant decadal change in the mixed contributions of these deficits, which implies stability in the prevalence of oceanic and continental sources driving extreme drought events. These findings offer valuable insights into the factors shaping meteorological drought evolution.

The Propagation Characteristics of Meteorological Drought to Vegetation Drought Based on Three-Dimensional Clustering Algorithm in China

The spatiotemporal continuity characteristics of drought are the basis for analyzing its spatial migration and evolution, which is significant for mitigation and early warning of drought. The aim of this paper is to identify meteorological and vegetation drought events in China from 1982 to 2022, reveal the dynamic changes of typical drought events, and elucidate the propagation characteristics of meteorological and vegetation drought. The results showed that (1) based on a three-dimensional spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, China experienced 138 meteorological drought events and 76 vegetation drought events; (2) the severity of the meteorological drought event No. M138 (2022.03–2022.11) reached 667.58 × 104 km2·month, and the severity of the vegetation drought event No. V68 (2019.06–2020.04) reached 572.89 × 104 km2·month; (3) a total of 40 meteorological-vegetation drought event pairs had been identified, which was divided into three main types: “single”, “simple”, and “complexity”; and (4) in the typical drought event pair No. P-34, the area difference was 16.45 × 104 km2, and the severity difference was 3.89 × 104 km2. The research results can provide a new perspective for identifying the dynamic changes and propagation characteristics of drought events from a three-dimensional perspective, which is of great significance for predicting vegetation drought and protecting the ecological environment.

Increasing vulnerability of vegetation to Meteorological and Groundwater drought: A Case study in Argentina

Study RegionContinental Argentina, South America. Study FocusThis study integrates multiple data sources to analyze the response of vegetation to meteorological and groundwater drought events in Argentina. It utilizes GRACE satellite data to monitor water storage variations, the GLDAS hydrological model to track soil moisture levels, and NDVI to assess vegetation health, categorized by different vegetation types. Meteorological data facilitated the computation of drought severity using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Anomalies in groundwater storage, derived from these data, informed the calculation of the Grace Groundwater Drought Index (GGDI). A comprehensive statistical analysis was conducted to examine the impact of meteorological (SPEI) and groundwater (GGDI) droughts on various vegetation types. New Hydrological Insights for the RegionThe study reveals that from 2002 to 2022, GRACE-TWSA and GLDAS-TWSA displayed consistent trends in Argentina. Meteorological droughts, characterized by higher frequency and intensity, predominantly affect croplands and grasslands. Compared to lagged effects, the cumulative impact of droughts was found to be more significant. Shrublands demonstrated the greatest resistance to drought, whereas vegetation in humid regions showed lower drought tolerance. Notably, the duration associated with the lag effects of meteorological droughts decreased from 2.16 months in 2002–1.52 months in 2020, suggesting an increasing sensitivity of vegetation to these droughts. This underscores the urgency of developing targeted drought resilience and water resource management strategies.

Dynamic relationships and propagation characteristics between meteorological drought and vegetation drought based on a three-dimensional identification algorithm

Drought is a regional phenomenon and progressive in specific dimensions of time and space, with significant continuity and dynamic characteristics on a spatiotemporal scale. The meteorological drought acts as a driving factor for vegetation drought, and studying the response characteristics of vegetation drought to meteorological drought is crucial for comprehending the mechanisms of drought evolution. In this study, based on a three-dimensional spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, meteorological and vegetation drought events in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 1982 to 2020 were identified, and the dynamic characteristics of typical drought events were depicted, elucidating the inherent correlations and propagation features between meteorological and vegetation drought events. Additionally, according to the spatiotemporal matching criteria of drought events, the meteorological-vegetation drought event pairs were successfully matched, which can reveal the lag time between meteorological drought and vegetation drought. From a three-dimensional perspective, we revealed the dynamic propagation characteristics of meteorological and vegetation drought events, which could provide an effective way for monitoring and mitigating regional vegetation drought, restoring ecosystem functionality, and promoting sustainable development of the ecological environment.

Comparative analysis of SPI, SPEI, and RDI indices for assessing spatio-temporal variation of drought in Türkiye

AbstractThis research presents a comprehensive drought analysis using climate data obtained from 219 homogeneously distributed meteorological stations in Türkiye between 1991 and 2022. In this context, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) drought indices were used and comparative analysis was made. Türkiye. The study demonstrates that below-normal precipitation over extended periods and increasing temperatures have contributed to the increased frequency of meteorological drought events. Türkiye's topographic conditions, particularly its location in the Mediterranean basin, significantly influence drought occurrences. It is noted that over the past 20 years, Türkiye has been trending towards drier conditions, with rising temperatures reinforcing this trend. The study observes that the moderate drought class range is the most frequently recurring in the SPI, SPEI, and RDI methods utilized. Regarding atmospheric conditions affecting the climate in Türkiye, it is observed that increased drought severity stands out prominently in years when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. During these years, increased drought severity is evident in the SPI, SPEI, and RDI indices, particularly in winter and autumn, while a wide area experiences drought effects in the summer months. Long-term analyses emphasize that drought periods occur less frequently but have more prolonged impacts, attributed to variations in precipitation patterns from year to year and the influence of rising temperatures due to global climate change. The potential future increase in drought in the Mediterranean basin due to global climate change and Türkiye's vulnerability to this situation could have adverse effects on water resources, food security, energy sources, and ecosystems.

Investigating the spatial propagation patterns of meteorological drought events and underlying mechanisms using complex network theory: A case study of the Yangtze River Basin, China

The spatial propagation patterns of meteorological drought events (MDEs) and underlying mechanisms contribute to elucidating and forecasting drought evolution. In this study, gridded MDEs in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) throughout the entire year, wet season and dry season were extracted from 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) series. Event synchronization (ES) and complex networks (CN) were employed to construct the MDE synchronization networks and MDE spatial propagation networks for various periods. The former were utilized to identify MDE synchronized subregions where MDEs co-occur and co-evolve in the YRB, while the latter were used to quantify the MDE spatial propagation patterns over both the basin and its subregions. The driving mechanisms behind MDE spatial propagation were further investigated by diagnosing the concomitant drought-inducing climate systems. The findings reveal the presence of four MDE synchronized subregions during the wet season and five subregions during the entire year and dry season. These subregions exhibited distinct spatial propagation patterns of MDEs, aligning with overall findings across the YRB. Notable differences were observed between wet and dry seasons, with various subregions exhibiting distinctive spatial propagation patterns during each season. These patterns are driven by variations in the controlling atmospheric circulation systems, leading to anomalies of wind patterns and moisture distribution, ultimately resulting in deficient moisture supply. The variations of tropical sea surface thermal conditions, influences of the Tibetan Plateau and MDE self-propagation triggered by land–atmosphere feedback are considered as three primary influencing factors for MDE spatial propagation in the YRB.

Projections of meteorological drought events in the upper Kızılırmak basin under climate change scenarios

Climate change, whose negative impacts are becoming increasingly apparent as a result of human actions, intensifies the drought problems to dangerous levels. The development of local-scale drought projections is crucial to take necessary precautions for potential risks and possible effects of drought. In this study, drought analysis was conducted in the Upper Kızılırmak Basin using the standard precipitation index (SPI) method for the near future (2020–2049), mid-century (2050–2074), and late century (2075–2099). The precipitation data required for the SPI were gathered from the data sets developed for the SSP climate change scenarios of the four chosen global climate models. Precipitation data has been made more convenient for local analysis studies with the statistical downscaling method. Forecasts have been created for the temporal variation and spatial distribution of drought events. The study findings indicate that, under the SSP 2-4.5 scenario, drought-related effects of climate change will decrease until 2100. On the other hand, the number and severity of drought events, as well as the duration of dry periods, will increase until 2100 under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario. According to the SSP 5-8.5 scenario, consisting of the most pessimistic forecasts, moderate drought will last 0–60 months, severe drought will last 0–30 months, and extreme drought will last 0–20 months in different regions of the area in the late century. The spatial distribution of droughts will differ based on the SPI index and climate change scenarios. Comparison of SPI and CZI data showed that both indices are effective in meteorological drought analyses.

Evaluation of Drought in the Ken River Basin in Bundelkhand Region, India

The present study exhibits the analyses of the meteorological drought events in the Ken Basin using various indices viz., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for different time-scale and Rainfall Departure (RD) method. Precipitation data from 1990 to 2020 for six districts falling in the basin have been used to compute SPI and RD values. The computation of SPI series has been carried out for 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 9-month and 12-month time-scales. The analysis indicated that the most parts of the basin experienced drought events in the years 2007, 2015 and 2017 region during the years. However, the basin was affected partially in the other drought years. The maximum severity of drought has been recorded as -65% and -52% in the year 1997 in Mahoba and Banda districts respectively. However, the up-reach parts of the basin were not affected in the year 1997. The comparative analysis of RD and SPI exhibited a good correlation with 3-month and 6-month SPI time steps. It is found that the SPI-3 identifies the meteorological drought event appropriately followed by SPI-6.

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Meteorological Drought in Inner Mongolia Inland River Basin and Its Driving Factors

In order to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of meteorological drought and explore its driving factors, the inland river basin of Inner Mongolia (IMIRB) was taken as a typical research area, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) of various scales was calculated, and the spatio-temporal trend change characteristics of meteorological drought were analyzed combined with the modified Mann–Kendall trend test (MMK). The typical meteorological drought events were analyzed by using the three-dimensional identification method, and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and dynamic evolution law of meteorological drought were analyzed comprehensively and accurately. The driving effects of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and sunspot on meteorological drought were investigated by using the cross wavelet method. The results are as follows: (1) with the increase of SPEI time scale, the frequency of meteorological drought decreased, but the duration and intensity of drought increased; (2) the trend was greatest in spring, with the largest number of areas showing a significant downward trend in SPEI, the strongest persistence in intensity, and significant aridification characteristics; (3) summer meteorological droughts had the largest area of high intensity drought but the smallest area of high frequency areas, and winter droughts had the smallest area of high intensity drought but the largest percentage of high frequency areas; (4) the meteorological drought event that occurred from April 2017 to December 2017 was the most serious, and reached its maximum value in June 2017, which mainly experienced five processes: occurrence—intensification—attenuation—re-intensification—extinction; (5) atmospheric circulation factor, sunspot, and meteorological drought of IMIRB were correlated, and ENSO had the greatest effect on drought. This study provides effective theoretical support for IMIRB drought prevention and disaster reduction.

The Quantitative Inhibition Effects of Meteorological Drought on Sugarcane Growth Using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-CANEGRO Model in Lai-bin, China

Sugarcane is the most important cash crop for producing sugar and the most promising high-yield bioenergy crop in China. Lai-bin is a major sugarcane growing and karst area in the Guangxi Province of China. However, frequent droughts over the years have caused huge losses on sugarcane production in this region. Therefore, the daily quantitative response mechanisms of sugarcane growth to multiple meteorological drought scenarios were discovered in Lai-bin using the DSSAT−CANEGRO model. The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was developed to detect the possible scenarios of meteorological drought events over the sugarcane growth periods. The results indicate that, in general, the inhibitory effect on sugarcane growth is enhanced by the increase in the intensity and duration of meteorological drought, which involved cane yield (CY), stem height (SH), leaf area index (LAI), and evapotranspiration (ET). Additionally, a light drought at the seedling stage and a light, moderate, and severe drought at the maturity stage give a promotion effect on sugarcane growth, but its overall CY increase rate is less than 5%. The stem elongation stage is the most sensitive period of sugarcane growth to all scenarios of meteorological drought, and the CY reduction rates reached 7.12%, 16.48%, 18.80%, and 29.05%, when the plants suffered from light, moderate, severe, and extreme meteorological droughts, respectively. Alternate drought–flood scenarios presented a facilitating or an inhibiting effect on sugarcane growth during different periods, which cannot be ignored. In conclusion, the quantitative function relationships between meteorological drought and sugarcane growth are revealed by this study.

Understanding drought propagation through coupling spatiotemporal features using vine copulas: A compound drought perspective

Accurately evaluating drought impact on agriculture poses a challenge to regional food security, particularly in compound drought (i.e., meteorological and agricultural drought co-occurring) scenarios. This study presents a novel approach utilizing Vine copula for coupling spatiotemporal features to evaluate drought propagation. Three-dimensional clustering method was employed to identify meteorological and agricultural drought events, which excelled in capturing dynamic evolution characteristics (duration, area, severity, etc.) as well as integrating them into comprehensive meteorological drought intensity (IMD) and agricultural drought intensity (IAD). Through spatiotemporal matching, compound drought events were extracted from the meteorological-agricultural drought event pairs. From compound drought perspective, compound duration (CD) and compound area (CA) were devised to characterize drought propagation potential across time and space. Finally, the Vine copula method was employed to model the interdependence between four key coupling features, namely IMD, IAD, CD, and CA, and evaluate the probability of triggering agricultural drought with different intensity levels. Results showed that CD and CA can respectively characterize the temporal and spatial accumulation scale of drought propagation. At a certain IMD level, CD significantly influences the propagation probability (i.e., “stratification” phenomenon), while CA increases the probability proportionally. Probability evaluation lacking spatiotemporal information may underestimate the likelihood of drought propagation characterized by “low-IMD” but “long-CD” or “large-CA”. The four-dimensional Vine copula structure can effectively couple dependence relationships of compound drought characteristics, and exhibits reliable robustness. This research provides stakeholders accurate probabilistic evaluation under compound drought scenarios, offering new insight into drought propagation.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought events in 34 major global river basins during 1901–2021

Meteorological drought is a crucial driver of various types of droughts; thus, identifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought at the basin scale has implications for ecological and water resource security. However, differences in drought characteristics between river basins have not been clearly elucidated. In this study, we identify and compare meteorological drought events in 34 major river basins worldwide using a three-dimensional drought-clustering algorithm based on the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index on a 12-month scale from 1901 to 2021. Despite synchronous increases in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), with precipitation increasing by more than three times the PET, 47 % (16/34) of the basins showed a tendency towards drought in over half their basin areas. Drought events occurred frequently, with more than half identified as short-term droughts (lasting less than or equal to three months). Small basins had a larger drought impact area, with major drought events often originating from the basin boundaries and migrating towards the basin centre. Meteorological droughts were driven by changes in sea surface temperature (SST), especially the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or other climate indices. Anomalies in SST and atmospheric circulation caused by ENSO events may have led to altered climate patterns in different basins, resulting in drought events. These results provide important insights into the characteristics and mechanisms of meteorological droughts in different river basins worldwide.

Assessment and Prediction of Future Climate Change in the Kaidu River Basin of Xinjiang under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios

Xinjiang, located in the arid region of the northwest, is one of the areas most sensitive to global changes. The Kaidu River Basin, situated in the heart of Xinjiang, is one of the sources of China’s largest inland river—the Tarim River. The Kaidu River not only bears the responsibility for supplying water for industrial use and agricultural production and people’s daily life in the basin, but also plays a crucial role in ecological water supply to the Tarim River. Studying and analyzing the characteristics and trends of meteorological condition in the future under climate change can provide important references and a basis for a deeper understanding of changes in the hydrological process and water resources in the basin. Therefore, this paper selects seven precipitation bias correction methods and four temperature bias correction methods to adjust the precipitation and temperature output data of eight general circulation models of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) within the Kaidu River Basin. The applicability of different bias correction methods in the study area is evaluated, and based on the corrected future meteorological data and calculated extreme meteorological index, the trends of meteorological data (precipitation, temperature) in the future period (2025–2050) under four SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) in the Kaidu River Basin are analyzed. The results show that: (1) Different types of bias correction methods have different correction focus and effects; their reflections on evaluation indicators are also different. (2) In the future period (2025–2050), the annual precipitation and average temperature in the Kaidu River Basin are higher than those in the historical period (1975–2014). The average annual temperature shows an upward trend in the future, but the annual precipitation shows a downward trend in the future except for the SSP2-4.5 scenario. (3) Compared with the historical period, the extreme precipitation in the future period under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios is higher than that in the historical period, and the number of rainless days decreases. In the future, under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the probability of meteorological drought events occurring due to high temperatures in the basin may further increase, while under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the situation of high temperatures and heavy rain in the basin may continue to increase.

Probabilistic monitoring of meteorological drought impacts on water quality of major rivers in South Korea using copula models

The impacts of drought range from water supply for humans to ecosystems. Drought affects river water quality by disturbing the hydrological regime in a variety of ways, and can degrade water quality by reducing surface and groundwater availability. In particular, drought-induced low flows, reduced nutrient dilution, and extreme increases in water temperature affect various water quality parameters in streams. Furthermore, the effects of drought on stream water quality may vary from season to season and from stream segment to stream segment, which requires careful investigation. In this study, Environmental Drought Condition Index - water quality (EDCI-wq) is proposed using a bivariate copula joint probability model between meteorological drought index and river water quality. Using this, environmental drought with respect to water quality is defined, and it is confirmed that environmental drought with respect to water quality can be routinely monitored through time series analysis and mapping of the proposed EDCI-wq. In addition, in order to express the environmental drought condition more explicitly to the general public, the environmental drought condition is graded into four classes based on the EDCI-wq. Furthermore, the sensitivity of river water quality to meteorological drought was estimated using the copula joint probability model, which allowed us to identify river segments that are relatively more sensitive to meteorological drought events.

Spatiotemporal relation of satellite-based meteorological to agricultural drought in the downstream Citarum watershed, Indonesia

Jatiluhur dam, located in West Java province, is one of the most extensive reservoirs in Indonesia and is used to secure the water supply for 240,000 ha of rice fields to prevent agricultural drought in the downstream Citarum watershed. During the last two decades, several areas in the downstream Citarum watershed have been experiencing agricultural drought following meteorological drought events. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of agricultural drought and their correlation with meteorological drought occurrence by utilizing a remote sensing image processing technique. The Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) derived from MODIS and CHIRPS data were used to estimate agricultural and meteorological drought events, respectively. The results showed that the magnitude of agricultural drought in the downstream Citarum watershed was varied and related to earlier meteorological drought. The agricultural drought mainly occurred after a meteorological event with the magnitude mostly related to the magnitude of the ONI and DMI. A strong El Nino and positive IOD will cause a higher magnitude of agricultural drought. The time lag between the two drought occurrences was found to be related to the distance of the paddy fields from the main irrigation network and the proximity of the main irrigation network to the Jatiluhur Dam spillway.

Teleconnections of Atmospheric Circulations to Meteorological Drought in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin

The Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) is one of the major transboundary basins globally, facing ongoing challenges due to flood and drought disasters. Particularly in the past two decades, the basin has experienced an increased frequency of meteorological drought events, posing serious threats to the local socio-economic structures and ecological systems. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the meteorological drought characteristics in the LMRB and identify the impact and correlation of atmospheric circulation on the meteorological drought in the basin. Specifically, the different levels of meteorological drought events were defined using the Run Theory based on the seasonal and annual SPEI from 1980 to 2018. The time lag correlation between meteorological drought events and the EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), were analyzed in the LMRB. Our results indicated that, from a temporal perspective, the period from November to April of the following year was particularly prone to meteorological droughts in the basin. In terms of spatial distribution, the primary agricultural regions within the basin, including Thailand, Eastern Cambodia, and Vietnam, were highly susceptible to meteorological droughts. Further analysis revealed a teleconnection between drought events in the LMRB and atmospheric circulation factors. The sensitivity of the basin’s drought timing to its response decreased in the order of the ENSO > AO > NAO > PDO. In general, the ENSO had the most substantial influence on drought events in the basin, with the strongest response relationship, while the upper reaches of the basin displayed the most significant response to the AO; the occurrence and progression of meteorological droughts in this area synchronized with the AO. These findings enhance our understanding of drought-prone areas in the LMRB, including the meteorological factors and driving mechanisms involved. This information is valuable for effectively mitigating and managing drought risks in the region.

Projection of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Events in the Verde River Hydrographic Basin

Resumo As secas podem acarretar crise hídrica, que pode afetar a produção de alimento e causar impactos socioambientais. Esta pesquisa objetiva analisar o comportamento das secas meteorológica e hidrológica por meio do emprego de índices de seca padronizados, calculados a partir de projeções climáticas dos cenários RCP4.5 e RCP8.5. Foram utilizados os índices SPI e SPEI para secas meteorológica e o SSFI para secas hidrológica, a partir de vazões simuladas pelos modelos hidrológicos SWAT e VIC. Para o clima presente (1961a 2005) os índices SPEI e SPI apresentaram resultados semelhantes com relação a eventos extremos de seca. Para o clima futuro (2005 a 2099) o SPI apresentou resultados semelhantes de seca quando considerado os cenários RCP4.5 e RCP8.5. O SPEI apresentou resultados mais divergentes quando considerado cada cenário. No clima futuro o SSFI simulou secas extremas para os cenários, RCP4.5 e RCP8.5. Levando em consideração o comportamento dos índices de seca para uma mesma escala de tempo, a seca meteorológica pode ter influenciado a seca hidrológica, gerando redução das vazões do rio quase simultaneamente devido à pequena área da bacia considerada. Estes resultados podem ser utilizados no planejamento de políticas e estratégias que visem minimizar os impactos das secas na região.

Long-term spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought in China from a three-dimensional (longitude, latitude, time) perspective

Currently, there is an absence of an exhaustive elucidation regarding the long-term spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological droughts in China. Previous studies have predominantly fixated on the lower-dimensional (temporal or spatial) facets of drought events, overlooking critical spatiotemporal details. This paper proposes an integrated processing framework that employs a three-dimensional clustering algorithm to discern drought events and quantifies the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamic attributes of China’s meteorological droughts during 1950–2021 from a three-dimensional perspective encompassing longitude, latitude, and time, capturing comprehensive spatiotemporal information. Additionally, the cross wavelet transform is harnessed to elucidate the impact of teleconnection factors on meteorological drought. The findings underscore that prolonged and extensive meteorological drought events, characterized by heightened severity, primarily manifest during the 1950 s, 1960 s, and 2010 s in temporal, predominantly within the central and western China spatially. From 1950 onwards, the severity, duration, and affected area of meteorological droughts in China exhibit a discernible pattern of initial decline followed by escalation. Into the 2010 s, meteorological droughts became more severe and active. China's meteorological drought displays two relatively prevailing spatial migration patterns: an overarching eastward and westward migration. In the former, the most frequent migration occurs to the east and northeast during its monthly evolution, while the latter involves migration primarily towards the west, southwest, and northwest. The impact of teleconnection factors on meteorological drought shows a spatiotemporal heterogeneity, with ENSO exhibiting a relatively substantial and intricate influencer. This research unearths the latest long-term spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological drought in China, which contributes to an improved comprehension of drought patterns and behaviors.

Comprehensive propagation characteristics between paired meteorological and hydrological drought events: Insights from various underlying surfaces

Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought events is crucial for understanding drought variation mechanisms and their consequences. Most previous studies were implemented using various standardized drought indices at month scale, which were difficult to reveal the physical processes and insufficient to characterize the comprehensive propagation characteristics (e.g., propagation time, duration, and severity) from meteorological to hydrological drought events. Furthermore, the impact mechanisms of underlying surfaces on drought propagation remained unclear. This study identified the paired relationships between meteorological and hydrological drought events and investigated their comprehensive propagation characteristics at the hydrologic response unit scale using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), run theory and paired analysis. The impact of underlying surfaces (e.g., land use, soil type, and slope) on drought propagation was further assessed using the Student's t-test at the 95% confident level. The upper middle Yuanjiang River Basin in China, which is prone to drought and exhibits diverse underlying surface conditions, was selected as the study area. Results indicate that the SWAT model optimally simulates the monthly streamflow with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency being ≥0.75 and the RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio being ≤0.50. Four main propagation types are identified, i.e., one-to-one, many-to-one, one-to-many, and many-to-many, in which the first two types are the dominant ones, accounting for 86.7% and 13.3% of total paired events, respectively. More than 85% of the study area exhibits a propagation time of ≤2 months, especially in the headwater area and the right bank of Lvzhijiang River. Drought duration and severity are amplified during the propagation process in 60.8% and 60.3% of the study area, respectively. Drought propagation time, duration, and severity are mainly controlled by soil and slope, and are slightly affected by land use type. The propagation time is quite short in areas with a high soil infiltration rate and steep slope, and the drought duration and severity are amplified in areas with a low soil infiltration rate and gentle slope. This study aims to provide deep insights on propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought considering various underlying surfaces, and further provides a scientific basis for the drought propagation mechanism and for drought disaster prevention and adaptation.