Comprehensive propagation characteristics between paired meteorological and hydrological drought events: Insights from various underlying surfaces

Abstract

Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought events is crucial for understanding drought variation mechanisms and their consequences. Most previous studies were implemented using various standardized drought indices at month scale, which were difficult to reveal the physical processes and insufficient to characterize the comprehensive propagation characteristics (e.g., propagation time, duration, and severity) from meteorological to hydrological drought events. Furthermore, the impact mechanisms of underlying surfaces on drought propagation remained unclear. This study identified the paired relationships between meteorological and hydrological drought events and investigated their comprehensive propagation characteristics at the hydrologic response unit scale using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), run theory and paired analysis. The impact of underlying surfaces (e.g., land use, soil type, and slope) on drought propagation was further assessed using the Student's t-test at the 95% confident level. The upper middle Yuanjiang River Basin in China, which is prone to drought and exhibits diverse underlying surface conditions, was selected as the study area. Results indicate that the SWAT model optimally simulates the monthly streamflow with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency being ≥0.75 and the RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio being ≤0.50. Four main propagation types are identified, i.e., one-to-one, many-to-one, one-to-many, and many-to-many, in which the first two types are the dominant ones, accounting for 86.7% and 13.3% of total paired events, respectively. More than 85% of the study area exhibits a propagation time of ≤2 months, especially in the headwater area and the right bank of Lvzhijiang River. Drought duration and severity are amplified during the propagation process in 60.8% and 60.3% of the study area, respectively. Drought propagation time, duration, and severity are mainly controlled by soil and slope, and are slightly affected by land use type. The propagation time is quite short in areas with a high soil infiltration rate and steep slope, and the drought duration and severity are amplified in areas with a low soil infiltration rate and gentle slope. This study aims to provide deep insights on propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought considering various underlying surfaces, and further provides a scientific basis for the drought propagation mechanism and for drought disaster prevention and adaptation.