Sea Ice Melt Research Articles

Relative roles of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice melt on Indian summer monsoon

Relative roles of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice melt on Indian summer monsoon

Parameter sensitivity analysis of a sea ice melt pond parametrisation and its emulation using neural networks

Accurate simulation of sea ice is critical for predictions of future Arctic sea ice loss, looming climate change impacts, and more. A key feature in Arctic sea ice is the formation of melt ponds. Each year melt ponds develop on the surface of the ice and primarily via affecting the albedo, they have an enormous effect on the energy budget and climate of the Arctic. As melt ponds are subgrid scale and their evolution occurs due to a number of competing, poorly understood factors, their representation in models is parametrised.Sobol sensitivity analysis, a form of variance based global sensitivity analysis is performed on an advanced melt pond parametrisation (MPP), in Icepack, a state-of-the-art thermodynamic column sea ice model. Results show that the model is very sensitive to changing its uncertain MPP parameter values, and that these have varying influences over model predictions both spatially and temporally. Such extreme sensitivity to parameters makes MPPs a potential source of prediction error in sea-ice models, given that the (often many) parameters in MPPs are usually poorly known.Machine learning (ML) techniques have shown great potential in learning and replacing subgrid scale processes in models. Given the complexity of melt pond physics and the need for accurate parameter values in MPPs, we propose an alternative data-driven MPPs that would prioritise the accuracy of albedo predictions. In particular, we constructed MPPs based either on linear regression or on nonlinear neural networks, and investigate if they could substitute the original physics-based MPP in Icepack.Our results shown that linear regression are insufficient as emulators, whilst neural networks can learn and emulate the MPP in Icepack very reliably. Icepack with the MPPs based on neural networks only slightly deviates from the original Icepack and overall offers the same long term model behaviour.We then searched for the smallest possible emulator that achieves good performance by performing features selection based on mutual information. Results indicates that a smaller model, based only on a portion of the full set of input variables needed by the physical MPP, is also sufficient to approximate and replace the physical MPP. This smaller emulators are not only computationally faster but also easier to interpret on a physical ground.Several and diverse challenges still exist, yet this study is an encouraging first step, prior to using real data, towards the adoption of data-driven MPPs in sea-ice models.

The roles of river discharge and sea ice melting in formation of freshened surface layers in the Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian seas

Wide areas of the Siberian Arctic shelf are covered by freshened surface water layers, which are among the largest in the World Ocean. River discharge is the main freshwater source for formation of these layers; therefore, they are commonly referred to as river plumes (the Ob-Yenisei plume in the Kara Sea and the Lena plume in the Laptev and East Siberian seas). The contribution of sea ice meltwater (SIM) to the Ob-Yenisei and Lena plumes is pointed out to be small, albeit its actual volume remains unknown. In this study, we use a novel dataset of satellite-derived sea ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean during the melt period to quantify the annual volume of SIM, which was received by the Ob-Yenisei and Lena plumes during 2012–2020. We reveal that SIM is a significant source for the Lena plume providing, on average, 20% of total annual freshwater content. Moreover, the share of SIM in the Lena plume shows large inter-annual (14%–29%) variability, i.e., during certain years, SIM provides almost one-third of freshwater volume of the Lena plume. This variability is governed by inter-annual variability of ice thickness, as well as seasonal variability of sea ice melting conditions. Conversely, the contribution of SIM to the Ob-Yenisei plume is relatively low (8% on average), and its total annual share varies from 6% to 11% during the study period. This difference is mainly caused by significantly smaller area of the Ob-Yenisei plume as compared with the Lena plume. The forecasted earlier onset of ice melting in the Arctic Ocean in future decades due to climate change could decrease the contribution of SIM to the Ob-Yenisei plume, whereas its influence on the Lena plume remains unclear.

Insights into carbonate environmental conditions in the Chukchi Sea

Abstract. Healthy Arctic marine ecosystems are essential to the food security and sovereignty, culture, and wellbeing of Indigenous Peoples in the Arctic. At the same time, Arctic marine ecosystems are highly susceptible to impacts of climate change and ocean acidification. While increasing ocean and air temperatures and melting sea ice act as direct stressors on the ecosystem, they also indirectly enhance ocean acidification, accelerating the associated changes in the inorganic carbon system. Yet, much is to be learned about the current state and variability of the inorganic carbon system in remote, high-latitude oceans. Here, we present time series (2016–2020) of pH and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) from the northeast Chukchi Sea continental shelf. The Chukchi Ecosystem Observatory includes a suite of subsurface year-round moorings sited amid a biological hotspot that is characterized by high primary productivity and a rich benthic food web that in turn supports coastal Iñupiat, whales, ice seals, walrus (Odobenus rosmarus), and Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida). Our observations suggest that near-bottom waters (33 m depth, 13 m above the seafloor) are a high carbon dioxide and low pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) environment in summer and fall, when organic material from the highly productive summer remineralizes. During this time, Ωarag can be as low as 0.4. In winter, when the site was covered by sea ice, pH was <8 and Ωarag remained undersaturated under the sea ice. There were only two short seasonal periods with relatively higher pH and Ωarag, which we term ocean acidification relaxation events. In spring, high primary production from sea ice algae and phytoplankton blooms led to spikes in pH (pH > 8) and aragonite oversaturation. In late fall, strong wind-driven mixing events that delivered low-CO2 surface water to the shelf also led to events with elevated pH and Ωarag. Given the recent observations of high rates of ocean acidification and a sudden and dramatic shift of the physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystem conditions in the Chukchi Sea, it is possible that the observed extreme conditions at the Chukchi Ecosystem Observatory are deviating from the carbonate conditions to which many species are adapted.

Risk assessment of ice-class-based navigation in Arctic: a case study in the Vilkitsky Strait

Over the past four decades, the decrease in Arctic sea ice has driven significant growth in vessel traffic through the Arctic passages. A precise and quantitative sea ice risk assessment would be the cornerstone of route planning for Arctic ships. Taking the chokepoint of Arctic Northeast Passage, the Vilkitsky Strait, as an example, the temporal and spatial characteristics of ice conditions in the strait were analyzed based on simulated ice thickness and observed sea ice concentration data from 2012 to 2021. Additionally, navigation risk in the strait was assessed based on the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS). The results showed that the strait experienced 100% sea ice coverage from December to May, peaking in thickness of nearly 2 m in May, receding starting in June, and presenting ice-free passages by August and September. A significant interannual variability is evident in the timing of sea ice melting and freezing. Moreover, the average navigability of the strait was 365 days for vessels with an ice class of PC3, 72 days for PC6 and fewer than 64 days for those below B1. Remarkably, in 2013, 2014, and 2021, vessels below PC5 had less than 30 navigable days in the strait.

Contribution of satellite sea surface salinity to the estimation of liquid freshwater content in the Beaufort Sea

Abstract. The hydrography of the Arctic Ocean has experienced profound changes over the last 2 decades. The sea ice extent has declined by more than 10 % per decade, and its liquid freshwater content has increased mainly due to glaciers and sea ice melting. Further, new satellite retrievals of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Arctic might contribute to better characterizing the freshwater changes in cold regions. Ocean salinity and freshwater content are intimately related such that an increase (decrease) in one entails a decrease (increase) in the other. In this work, we evaluate the freshwater content in the Beaufort Gyre using surface salinity measurements from the satellite radiometric mission Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and TOPAZ4b reanalysis salinity at depth, estimating the freshwater content from 2011 to 2019 and validating the results with in situ measurements. The results highlight the underestimation of the freshwater content using reanalysis data in the Beaufort Sea and a clear improvement in the freshwater content estimation when adding satellite sea surface salinity measurements in the mixed layer. The improvements are significant, with up to a 70 % reduction in bias in areas near the ice melting. Our research demonstrates how remotely sensed salinity can assist us in better monitoring the changes in the Arctic freshwater content and understanding key processes related to salinity variations that cause density differences with potential to influence the global circulation system that regulates Earth's climate.

Comparison of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice spatial–temporal changes during 1979–2018

In recent years, the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice changes fluctuated significantly, and the overall trend of sea ice changes in the Arctic and Antarctic is opposite. However, studying the change characteristics and trends of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice on more sensitive sea ice parameters and on smaller time scales still has high research value and significance. The Antarctic and Arctic sea ice spatial–temporal changes are studied and compared from the aspects of sea ice concentration, sea ice extent, first-year ice extent, multi-year ice extent, melting period and freezing period based on the daily sea ice concentration data during three periods of 1979–2018, 2009–2018, and 2014–2018, in order to more comprehensively reflect the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice changes. The results are as follows: Sea ice concentration showed a decreasing trend with the maximum negative change rate of −1.771 %/year in the Arctic and an increasing trend with the maximum positive change rate of 1.007 %/year in the Antarctic, and sea ice concentration in the Arctic and Antarctic showed a decreasing trend accompanied by the decrease of latitude. The Antarctic sea ice extent increased slowly, however, there was a more obvious decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent. The Arctic sea ice melting period increased 0.1564 days/year and the freezing period decreased 0.1646 days/year, and the Antarctic melting period increased 0.0402 days/year and the freezing period decreased −0.037 days/year. First-year ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic showed a increasing trend, and multi-year ice extent showed a decreasing trend.

Isotopic signatures of snow, sea ice, and surface seawater in the central Arctic Ocean during the MOSAiC expedition

The Arctic Ocean is an exceptional environment where hydrosphere, cryosphere, and atmosphere are closely interconnected. Changes in sea-ice extent and thickness affect ocean currents, as well as moisture and heat exchange with the atmosphere. Energy and water fluxes impact the formation and melting of sea ice and snow cover. Here, we present a comprehensive statistical analysis of the stable water isotopes of various hydrological components in the central Arctic obtained during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in 2019–2020, including the understudied Arctic winter. Our dataset comprises >2200 water, snow, and ice samples. Snow had the most depleted and variable isotopic composition, with δ18O (–16.3‰) increasing consistently from surface (–22.5‰) to bottom (–9.7‰) of the snowpack, suggesting that snow metamorphism and wind-induced transport may overprint the original precipitation isotope values. In the Arctic Ocean, isotopes also help to distinguish between different sea-ice types, and whether there is a meteoric contribution. The isotopic composition and salinity of surface seawater indicated relative contributions from different freshwater sources: lower δ18O (approximately –3.0‰) and salinities were observed near the eastern Siberian shelves and towards the center of the Transpolar Drift due to river discharge. Higher δ18O (approximately –1.5‰) and salinities were associated with an Atlantic source when the RV Polarstern crossed the Gakkel Ridge into the Nansen Basin. These changes were driven mainly by the shifts within the Transpolar Drift that carried the Polarstern across the Arctic Ocean. Our isotopic analysis highlights the importance of investigating isotope fractionation effects, for example, during sea-ice formation and melting. A systematic full-year sampling for water isotopes from different components strengthens our understanding of the Arctic water cycle and provides crucial insights into the interaction between atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean and their spatio-temporal variations during MOSAiC.

Spatial distribution and diversity of the heterotrophic flagellates in the Cosmonaut Sea, Antarctic

As predators of bacteria and viruses and as food sources for microzooplankton, heterotrophic flagellates (HFs) play an important role in the marine micro-food web. Based on the global climate change’s impact on marine ecosystems, particularly sea ice melting, we analyzed the community composition and diversity of heterotrophic flagellates, focusing on the Antarctic Cosmonaut Sea. During the 36th China Antarctic research expedition (2019-2020), we collected seawater samples, subsequently analyzing HFs through IlluminaMiSeq2000 sequencing to assess community composition and diversity. Notable variations in HFs abundance were observed between the western and eastern sectors of the Cosmonaut Sea, with a distinct concentration at a 100-meter water depth. Different zones exhibited diverse indicators and dominants taxa influenced by local ocean currents. Both the northern Antarctic Peninsula and the western Cosmonaut Sea, where the Weddell Eddy and Antarctic Land Slope Current intersect, showcased marine stramenopiles as dominant HFs species. Our findings offer insights into dominant taxa, spatial distribution patterns among heterotrophic flagellates, correlations between taxa distribution and environmental factors, and the exploration of potential indicator taxa.

Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020

Abstract. Ice sheet mass loss from Antarctica is greatest in the Amundsen Sea sector, where “warm” modified Circumpolar Deep Water moves onto the continental shelf and melts and thins the bases of ice shelves hundreds of meters below the sea surface. We use nearly 1000 paired salinity and oxygen isotope analyses of seawater samples collected on seven expeditions from 1994 to 2020 to produce a time series of glacial meltwater inventory for the southeastern Amundsen Sea continental shelf. Deep water column salinity–δ18O relationships yield freshwater end-member δ18O values from -31.3±1.0‰ to -28.4±1.0‰, consistent with the isotopic composition of local glacial ice. We use a two-component meteoric water end-member approach that accounts for precipitation in the upper water column, and a pure glacial meteoric water end-member is employed for the deep water column. Meteoric water inventories are comprised of nearly pure glacial meltwater in deep shelf waters and of >74 % glacial meltwater in the upper water column. Total meteoric water inventories range from 8.1±0.7 to 9.6±0.8 m and exhibit greater interannual variability than trend over the study period, based on the available data. The relatively long residence time in the southeastern Amundsen Sea allows changes in mean meteoric water inventories to diagnose large changes in local melt rates, and improved understanding of regional circulation could produce well-constrained glacial meltwater fluxes. The two-component meteoric end-member technique improves the accuracy of the sea ice melt and meteoric fractions estimated from seawater δ18O measurements throughout the entire water column and increases the utility for the broader application of these estimates.

Release of ballast material during sea-ice melt enhances carbon export in the Arctic Ocean.

Globally, the most intense uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) occurs in the Atlantic north of 50°N, and it has been predicted that atmospheric CO2 sequestration in the Arctic Ocean will increase as a result of ice-melt and increased primary production. However, little is known about the impact of pan-Arctic sea-ice decline on carbon export processes. We investigated the potential ballasting effect of sea-ice derived material on settling aggregates and carbon export in the Fram Strait by combining 13 years of vertical flux measurements with benthic eDNA analysis, laboratory experiments, and tracked sea-ice distributions. We show that melting sea-ice in the Fram Strait releases cryogenic gypsum and terrigenous material, which ballasts sinking organic aggregates. As a result, settling velocities of aggregates increased ≤10-fold, resulting in ≤30% higher carbon export in the vicinity of the melting ice-edge. Cryogenic gypsum is formed in first-year sea-ice, which is predicted to increase as the Arctic is warming. Simultaneously, less sea-ice forms over the Arctic shelves, which is where terrigenous material is incorporated into sea-ice. Supporting this, we found that terrigenous fluxes from melting sea-ice in the Fram Strait decreased by >80% during our time-series. Our study suggests that terrigenous flux will eventually cease when enhanced sea-ice melt disrupts trans-Arctic sea-ice transport and thus, limit terrigenous-ballasted carbon flux. However, the predicted increase in Arctic primary production and gypsum formation may enhance gypsum-ballasted carbon flux and compensate for lowered terrigenous fluxes. It is thus unclear if sea-ice loss will reduce carbon export in the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic marine heatwaves forced by greenhouse gases and triggered by abrupt sea-ice melt

Since 2007, unprecedented marine heatwave events are occurring over the Arctic Ocean. Here we identify the fraction of the likelihood of Arctic marine heatwaves magnitude that is attributable to greenhouse gas forcing. Results reveal that Arctic marine heatwaves are primarily triggered by an abrupt sea-ice retreat, which coincides with the maximum downward radiative fluxes. Up to 82% of the sea surface temperature variability over the shallow Arctic marginal seas, where marine heatwaves are prone to occur, can be explained by net accumulation of seasonal surface heat flux in the ocean. Event attribution analysis demonstrates that the 103-day long 2020 event – the most intense (4 ∘C) recorded so far in the Arctic – would be exceptionally unlikely in the absence of greenhouse gas forcing in terms of both intensity and duration. Our further results imply that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, along with the expansion of first-year ice extent, moderate marine heatwaves in the Arctic will very likely persistently reoccur.

The effectiveness of legal framework of Arctic vessel-source black carbon governance.

The Arctic is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, of which vessel-source black carbon aerosols serving as a prominent catalyst for these changes. This situation is poised to worsen as sea ice melts and shipping lanes change. Rapid action aimed at mitigating short-term climate forcing factors can yield almost immediate climate benefits in the Arctic. This article provides an overview of the legal framework governing black carbon in the Arctic, considering three distinct perspectives: the global, regional, and national dimensions. These perspectives encompass global forums represented by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC), with a focus on recent developments concerning black carbon governance, notably the amendments to MARPOL Annex VI and Annex I. Regionally, forums represented by the Arctic Council and the European Union are examined. Black carbon emissions exhibit migratory characteristics, yet the primary legal responsibilities for emission reduction are concentrated within Arctic states. Therefore, this article also delves into the laws and practices of Arctic coastal states in their efforts to combat black carbon emissions, using Canada and Norway as examples. The analysis of institutional effectiveness in this article indicates that, at present, specialized legislation on black carbon is either vague or non-existent. The current Arctic ship-source black carbon governance system faces issues related to leadership ambiguity in its institutional structure, a limited scope of responsible entities, and a lack of diverse implementation measures. Simultaneously, the governance system is questioned for having weak or non-legally binding regulations at the level of legal enforcement. The article anticipates the introduction of more mandatory regulations while also encouraging the selection of non-coercive policy tools. Accordingly, this article argues that a coordinated governance system centered on IMO and the Arctic Council needs to be established. Such a framework should adopt a more inclusive approach to stimulate positive interactions between regulations, aiming to create a broader winning alliance based on the existing foundations.

The impact of sea ice melt on the evolution of surface pCO2 in a polar ocean basin

The impact of sea ice melt on the evolution of surface pCO2 in a polar ocean basin

Complexity of Arctic Ocean water isotope (δ18O, δ2H) spatial and temporal patterns revealed with machine learning

The stable isotope compositions of water (δ18O, δ2H, deuterium-excess) are important tracers that help illuminate the changing Arctic water cycle and how Arctic-sourced water can influence lower latitudes. We present simultaneous boundary layer water vapor and ocean water isotope data that were measured continuously in the western Arctic Ocean. Sea surface water isotopes varied between the shallower continental Chukchi Shelf and the deeper Chukchi Borderlands to the north. The Chukchi Borderlands surface waters were less saline than the offshore Chukchi Shelf, as the Borderlands are influenced by greater sea ice cover and contribution of sea ice melt to surface freshwater. This greater contribution of sea ice melt resulted in lower deuterium-excess (δ2H − 8*δ18O) in surface water values in the deeper Chukchi Borderlands than on the shallower Chukchi Shelf. Additionally, the sea ice melt contributions to freshwater were less prominent than river runoff, but freshwater from both sources decreased substantially below 70 m depth in the Chukchi Borderlands. Our observed water isotope values provided the foundation for producing water isotope maps (isoscapes) based on remote sensing and machine learning which incorporate parameters that can influence ocean circulation and thus water isotopes (e.g., salinity, sea surface temperature, water depth). These isoscapes suggest spatial complexity in the distribution of stable water isotopes in the Arctic, including sharp gradients in the distribution of the isotopes in seawater that were studied. These isoscapes can be improved in future iterations, for example, with the availability of more spatially continuous, remotely sensed oceanic variables or continuous ship-based measurements to use as additional predictors. As a result, the generation of these isoscapes could become a useful tool for understanding the past, present, and future Arctic water cycle in the context of the global hydrologic cycle.

Water Properties and Diffusive Convection in the Canada Basin

The aim of this study is to better understand diffusive convection (DC) and its role in the upper ocean dynamic environment and sea ice melting in the Canada Basin. Based on a moored dataset with 6737 profiles collected from August 2003 to August 2011 in the upper layer of the Canada Basin, DC between the warm and salty Atlantic Water (AW) and the colder and less salty Lower Halocline Water (LHW) were investigated. The moorings were designated at four stations: A, B, C, and D, located at the southwestern, southeastern, northeastern, and northwestern parts of the basin, respectively. During the observation period, the temperature, salinity, and depth of the AW and LHW exhibited unique temporal variations. The temperature and salinity of the AW varied among stations, with a decreasing trend from northwest to southeast, consistent with the propagation path of the AW in the Canada Basin. The temperature and salinity of the LHW were similar at all stations. The AW and LHW cores were located between depths of 320–500 m and 160–300 m, respectively, and both gradually deepened over time. Distinct DC staircase structures were observed between the AW and LHW, more pronounced at stations C and D than at stations A and B, which is speculated to be related to eddies at stations A and B during the observation period. The vertical heat fluxes through the DC staircase layer at stations C and D (FHc_C and FHc_D) were estimated using an empirical formula. FHc_C ranged from 0.05 to 0.94 W/m2, and FHc_D ranged from 0.05 to 0.6 W/m2, with the maximum probability value for both at approximately 0.2 W/m2. The effective diffusivities at these two stations (KT_C and KT_D) are similar, ranging from 2 × 10−6 to 3 × 10−5 m2/s, with the highest probability occurring at 6 × 10−6 m2/s. Both the probability density function of the heat flux and the effective diffusivity skewed towards larger values and obey a lognormal distribution, indicating turbulence intermittency of the DC staircase in the Canada Basin. These finding offers new insights into the heat transport and turbulence in the DC staircase, and then bring a deeper understanding of sea ice melting in the Canada Basin.

Radiolarian assemblages related to the ocean–ice interaction around the East Antarctic coast

Abstract. The Southern Ocean plays a central role in Earth's climate, ecology, and biogeochemical cycles. Therefore, understanding long-term changes in Southern Ocean water masses in the geologic past is essential for assessing the role of the Southern Ocean in the climate system. Radiolarian fossils are a useful tool to reconstruct the water masses of the Southern Ocean. However, the radiolarian assemblages in the high latitudes of the Southern Ocean (south of the polar front (PF)) are still poorly understood. In this paper, we report the radiolarian assemblages in surface marine sediment and plankton tow samples collected from the high latitudes south of the PF. In the surface sediments, four factors (named F1–F4) of the radiolarian assemblages were identified using Q-mode factor analysis, which are related to different water masses and hydrological conditions. F1 is related to the surface waters south of the southern boundary (SB) of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which are cooled by melting sea ice and ice sheets. F2 is associated with water masses north of the SB. A comparison with the vertical distribution of the radiolarian assemblages in plankton tow samples indicates that characteristic species are associated with the Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and surface waters north of the SB. F3 is associated with modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW). The radiolarian assemblage of F4 does not seem specifically related to any of the water mass here analyzed. However, the species in this assemblage are typically dwells within ice shelf and/or sea ice edge environments. Radiolarian assemblages here identified and associated with water masses, and ice edge environments are useful to reconstruct the environment south of the PF in the geologic past.

An effect of a snow cover on solar heating and melting of lake or sea ice

Solar radiative heating and melting of lake and sea ice is a geophysical problem that has attracted the attention of researchers for many years. This problem is important in connection with the current global change of the climate. Physical and computational models of the process are suggested in the paper. Analytical solutions for the transfer of solar radiation in light-scattering snow cover and ice are combined with numerical calculations of heat transfer in a multilayer system. The thermal boundary conditions take into account convective heat losses to the ambient air and radiative cooling in the mid-infrared window of transparency of the cloudless atmosphere. The study begins with an anomalous spring melting of ice on the large high-mountain lakes of Tibet. It was found that a thick ice layer not covered with snow starts to melt at the ice-water interface due to volumetric solar heating of ice. The results of the calculations are in good agreement with the field observations. The computational analysis showed a dramatic change in the process when the ice is covered with snow. A qualitative change in the physical picture of the process occurs when the snow cover thickness increases to 20–30 cm. In this case, the snow melting precedes ice melting and water ponds are formed on the ice surface. This is typical for the Arctic Sea in polar summer. Known experimental data are used to estimate the melting of sea ice under the melt pond. Positive or negative feedback related to the specific optical and thermal properties of snow, ice, and water are discussed.

Important Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Interannual Variability of the Boreal Autumn East Siberian–Beaufort Sea Ice

Abstract The East Siberia–Beaufort Sea (EsCB) sea ice during boreal autumn has recently been reported to play important roles in the climate over Eurasia and North America. The EsCB sea ice exhibits remarkable year-to-year fluctuations in autumn (August–October), the season in which its minimum extent usually occurs. However, the physical driver of the autumn EsCB sea ice interannual variability remains unclear, impeding the seasonal prediction of local sea ice. Here we find that the autumn EsCB sea ice variability is largely driven by the preceding summer (May–July) dipolar atmospheric anomalies over the North Atlantic, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. During the negative NAO-like phase, the circumpolar anticyclonic anomalies tend to transport the warm air from Greenland toward the EsCB region, which triggers rapid sea ice melt there. The associated EsCB sea ice anomalies can be maintained or even intensified by the local sea ice–albedo positive feedback until autumn. Therefore, the abnormal signals of Arctic sea ice tend to show significant persistence in summer and autumn. The influence of the summer NAO-like atmospheric circulation on the ensuing autumn EsCB sea ice can be realistically reproduced in the historical simulation of the E3SM-1-0 model, supporting our findings based on the observation. This lagged relationship provides a promising pathway for skillful seasonal prediction of the EsCB sea ice and its related climatic impacts.

Seasonal Variations and Spatial Patterns of Arctic Cloud Changes in Association with Sea Ice Loss during 1950–2019 in ERA5

Abstract The dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms that link retreating sea ice to increased Arctic cloud amount and cloud water content are unclear. Using the fifth generation of the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5), the long-term changes between years 1950–79 and 1990–2019 in Arctic clouds are estimated along with their relationship to sea ice loss. A comparison of ERA5 to CERES satellite cloud fractions reveals that ERA5 simulates the seasonal cycle, variations, and changes of cloud fraction well over water surfaces during 2001–20. This suggests that ERA5 may reliably represent the cloud response to sea ice loss because melting sea ice exposes more water surfaces in the Arctic. Increases in ERA5 Arctic cloud fraction and water content are largest during October–March from ∼950 to 700 hPa over areas with significant (≥15%) sea ice loss. Further, regions with significant sea ice loss experience higher convective available potential energy (∼2–2.75 J kg−1), planetary boundary layer height (∼120–200 m), and near-surface specific humidity (∼0.25–0.40 g kg−1) and a greater reduction of the lower-tropospheric temperature inversion (∼3°–4°C) than regions with small (<15%) sea ice loss in autumn and winter. Areas with significant sea ice loss also show strengthened upward motion between 1000 and 700 hPa, enhanced horizontal convergence (divergence) of air, and decreased (increased) relative humidity from 1000 to 950 hPa (950–700 hPa) during the cold season. Analyses of moisture divergence, evaporation minus precipitation, and meridional moisture flux fields suggest that increased local surface water fluxes, rather than atmospheric motions, provide a key source of moisture for increased Arctic clouds over newly exposed water surfaces during October–March. Significance Statement Sea ice loss has been shown to be a primary contributor to Arctic warming. Despite the evidence linking large sea ice retreat to Arctic warming, some studies have suggested that enhanced downwelling longwave radiation associated with increased clouds and water vapor is the primary reason for Arctic amplification. However, it is unclear how sea ice loss is linked to changes in clouds and water vapor in the Arctic. Here, we investigate the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and changes in clouds using the ERA5 dataset. Improved knowledge of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and changes in clouds will help further our understanding of the role of the cloud feedback in Arctic warming.