Parameter sensitivity analysis of a sea ice melt pond parametrisation and its emulation using neural networks

Abstract

Accurate simulation of sea ice is critical for predictions of future Arctic sea ice loss, looming climate change impacts, and more. A key feature in Arctic sea ice is the formation of melt ponds. Each year melt ponds develop on the surface of the ice and primarily via affecting the albedo, they have an enormous effect on the energy budget and climate of the Arctic. As melt ponds are subgrid scale and their evolution occurs due to a number of competing, poorly understood factors, their representation in models is parametrised.Sobol sensitivity analysis, a form of variance based global sensitivity analysis is performed on an advanced melt pond parametrisation (MPP), in Icepack, a state-of-the-art thermodynamic column sea ice model. Results show that the model is very sensitive to changing its uncertain MPP parameter values, and that these have varying influences over model predictions both spatially and temporally. Such extreme sensitivity to parameters makes MPPs a potential source of prediction error in sea-ice model, given that the (often many) parameters in MPPs are usually poorly known.Machine learning (ML) techniques have shown great potential in learning and replacing subgrid scale processes in models. Given the complexity of melt pond physics and the need for accurate parameter values in MPPs, we propose an alternative data-driven MPPs that would prioritise the accuracy of albedo predictions. In particular, we constructed MPPs based either on linear regression or on nonlinear neural networks, and investigate if they could substitute the original physics-based MPP in Icepack.Our results shown that linear regression are insufficient as emulators, whilst neural networks can learn and emulate the MPP in Icepack very reliably. Icepack with the MPPs based on neural networks only slightly deviates from the original Icepack and overall offers the same long term model behaviour.We then searched for the smallest possible emulator that achieves good performance by performing features selection based on mutual information. Results indicates that a smaller model, based only on a portion of the full set of input variables needed by the physical MPP, is also sufficient to approximate and replace the physical MPP. This smaller emulators are not only computationally faster but also easier to interpret on a physical ground.Several and diverse challenges still exist, yet this study is an encouraging first step, prior to using real data, toward the adoption of data-driven MPPs in sea-ice models.