Glacier Melt Rates Research Articles

Sensitivity of mountain glacier mass balance to changes in bare-ice albedo

ABSTRACTAlbedo is an important parameter in the energy balance of bare-ice surfaces and modulates glacier melt rates. The prolongation of the ablation period enforces the albedo feedback and highlights the need for profound knowledge on impacts of bare-ice albedo on glacier mass balance. In this study, we assess the mass balance sensitivity of 12 Swiss glaciers with abundant long-term in-situ data on changes in bare-ice albedo. We use pixel-based bare-ice albedo derived from Landsat 8. A distributed mass-balance model is applied to the period 1997–2016 and experiments are performed to assess the impact of albedo changes on glacier mass balance. Our results indicate that glacier-wide mass-balance sensitivities to changes in bare-ice albedo correlate strongly with mean annual mass balances (r2= 0.81). Large alpine glaciers react more sensitively to bare-ice albedo changes due to their ablation areas being situated at lower elevations. We find average sensitivities of glacier-wide mass balance of −0.14 m w.e. a−1per 0.1 albedo decrease. Although this value is considerably smaller than sensitivity to air temperature change, we stress the importance of the enhanced albedo feedback that will be amplified due to atmospheric warming and a suspected darkening of glacier surface in the near future.

Sensitivity of glacier runoff projections to baseline climate data in the Indus River basin

Quantifying the contribution of glacier runoff to water resources is particularly important in regions such High Mountain Asia, where glaciers provide a large percentage of seasonal river discharge and support large populations downstream. In remote areas, direct field measurements of glacier melt rates are difficult to acquire and rarely observed, so hydro-glaciological modeling and remote sensing approaches are needed. Here we present estimates of glacier melt contribution to the Upper Indus watershed over the last 40 years using a suite of seven reanalysis climate datasets that have previously been used in hydrological models for this region, a temperature-index melt model and > 29,000 km2 of ice cover. In particular, we address the uncertainty in estimates of meltwater flux that is introduced by the baseline climate dataset chosen, by comparing the results derived from each. Mean annual glacier melt contribution varies from 8 km3 yr-1 and 169 km3 yr-1, or between 4-78% of the total annual runoff in the Indus, depending on temperature dataset applied. Under projected scenarios of an additional 2-4°C of regional warming by 2100 AD, we find annual meltwater fluxes vary by >200% depending on the baseline climate dataset used and, importantly, span a range of positive and negative trends. Despite significant differences between climate datasets and the resulting spread in meltwater fluxes, the spatial pattern of melt is highly correlated and statistically robust across all datasets. This allows us to conclude with confidence that fewer than 10% of the >20,000 glaciers in the watershed contribute more than 80% of the total glacier runoff to the Indus. These are primarily large, low elevation glaciers in the Karakoram and Hindu Kush. Additional field observations to ground-truth modeled climate data will go far to reduce the uncertainty highlighted here and we suggest that efforts be focused on those glaciers identified to be most significant to water resources.

“Peer Review is Melting Our Glaciers”: What Led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to Go Astray?

An error in the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which wrongly predicted the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers by 2035, fueled doubts about the authority, honesty and rigor of the IPCC as a leading institution in climate science and, correspondingly, raised questions about whether global warming is anything more than a hoax put forward by environmentalists. The late and confusing reaction of the IPCC to these allegations only worsened the matter. By comparing assessment reports issued by the IPCC, this paper asks the question: ‘Why, despite extensive peer review, did the Himalayan glacier melting rate error get published?’ I chronicle exactly what happened (Sect. 3), consider why it happened as it did (Sect. 4), and show how these answers require us to rethink the concept of ‘peer review’ in scientific practice. I also identify several future directions for peer review (Sect. 5) if it wants to stay ahead of the game, bearing in mind the forthcoming IPCC Assessment Reports.

Imaging spectroscopy to assess the composition of ice surface materials and their impact on glacier mass balance

Glacier surfaces are not only composed of ice or snow but are heterogeneous mixtures of different materials. The occurrence and dynamics of light-absorbing impurities affect ice surface characteristics and strongly influence glacier melt processes. However, our understanding of the spatial distribution of impurities and their impact on ice surface characteristics and the glacier's energy budget is still limited. We use imaging spectroscopy in combination with in-situ experiments to assess the composition of ice surface materials and their respective impact on surface albedo and glacier melt rates. Spectroscopy data were acquired in August 2013 using the Airborne Prism EXperiment (APEX) imaging spectrometer and were used to map the abundances of six predominant surface materials on Glacier de la Plaine Morte, Swiss Alps. A pixel-based classification revealed that about 10% of the ice surface is covered with snow, water or debris. The remaining 90% of the surface can be divided into three types of glacier ice, namely ~7% dirty ice, ~43% pure ice and ~39% bright ice. Spatially distributed spectral albedo derived from APEX reflectance data in combination with in-situ multi-angular spectroscopic measurements was used to analyse albedo patterns present on the glacier surface. About 85% of all pixels exhibit a low albedo between 0.1 and 0.4 (mean albedo 0.29±0.12), indicating that Glacier de la Plaine Morte is covered with a significant amount of light-absorbing impurities, resulting in a strong ice-albedo feedback during the ablation season. Using a pixel-based albedo map instead of a constant albedo for ice (0.34) as input for a mass balance model revealed that the glacier-wide total ablation remained similar (10% difference). However, the large local variations in mass balance can only be reproduced using the pixel-based albedo derived from APEX, emphasizing the need to quantify spatial albedo differences as an important input for glacier mass balance models.

Reconstruction of glacier fluctuations in the East Sayan, Baikalsky and Kodar Ridges (East Siberia, Russia) during the last 210 years based on high-resolution geochemical proxies from proglacial lake bottom sediments

We have presented results of study of bottom sediments of the proglacial lakes enriched with meltwater of Peretolchin Glacier (the East Sayan Ridge), Chersky Glacier (the Baikalsky Ridge) and glaciers of the Kodar Ridge. Bottom sediments formed from the end of the Little Ice Age to 2013 were investigated with time resolution in year-season, using X-ray fluorescence with synchrotron radiation and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Depth–age models of the cores were estimated from year laminate layers, using 210Pb and 137Cs chronology. Intense glacier thawing was calculated from the amount of clastic matter supplied by glacier meltwater into proglacial lakes. A high content of some elements was closely associated with clastic material (e.g. Rb, Zr, Nb, Y or Th) in bottom sediments, and most likely these elements affected the intensity of glacier melting. We have defined three periods in significant increase of glacier flow/melting during the last 210 years. The first period (ca. 1800–1890), supply of suspended material by meltwater into Lake Ekhoy (the East Sayan Ridge) and Lake Preobrazhenskoe (the Kodar Ridge), was not intense until 1850 and 1875, respectively. However, the rate of meltwater supply into Lake Izumrudnoe (the Baikalsky Ridge) was high during the Little Ice Age, and it is likely attributed to local moisture from Lake Baikal. The regional glacier water balances were most likely positive during the second period (ca. 1890–1940). The third period (ca. 1940–till present) was characterised by moderate melting rate of glaciers located on the Kodar and Baikalsky Ridges, in contrast to Peretolchin Glacier that demonstrated the highest rate of melting and changes in outlines during this period.

Microbial diversity on Icelandic glaciers and ice caps.

Algae are important primary colonizers of snow and glacial ice, but hitherto little is known about their ecology on Iceland's glaciers and ice caps. Due do the close proximity of active volcanoes delivering large amounts of ash and dust, they are special ecosystems. This study provides the first investigation of the presence and diversity of microbial communities on all major Icelandic glaciers and ice caps over a 3 year period. Using high-throughput sequencing of the small subunit ribosomal RNA genes (16S and 18S), we assessed the snow community structure and complemented these analyses with a comprehensive suite of physical-, geo-, and biochemical characterizations of the aqueous and solid components contained in snow and ice samples. Our data reveal that a limited number of snow algal taxa (Chloromonas polyptera, Raphidonema sempervirens and two uncultured Chlamydomonadaceae) support a rich community comprising of other micro-eukaryotes, bacteria and archaea. Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes were the dominant bacterial phyla. Archaea were also detected in sites where snow algae dominated and they mainly belong to the Nitrososphaerales, which are known as important ammonia oxidizers. Multivariate analyses indicated no relationships between nutrient data and microbial community structure. However, the aqueous geochemical simulations suggest that the microbial communities were not nutrient limited because of the equilibrium of snow with the nutrient-rich and fast dissolving volcanic ash. Increasing algal secondary carotenoid contents in the last stages of the melt seasons have previously been associated with a decrease in surface albedo, which in turn could potentially have an impact on the melt rates of Icelandic glaciers.

The value of multiple data set calibration versus model complexity for improving the performance of hydrological models in mountain catchments

AbstractThe assessment of snow, glacier, and rainfall runoff contribution to discharge in mountain streams is of major importance for an adequate water resource management. Such contributions can be estimated via hydrological models, provided that the modeling adequately accounts for snow and glacier melt, as well as rainfall runoff. We present a multiple data set calibration approach to estimate runoff composition using hydrological models with three levels of complexity. For this purpose, the code of the conceptual runoff model HBV‐light was enhanced to allow calibration and validation of simulations against glacier mass balances, satellite‐derived snow cover area and measured discharge. Three levels of complexity of the model were applied to glacierized catchments in Switzerland, ranging from 39 to 103 km2. The results indicate that all three observational data sets are reproduced adequately by the model, allowing an accurate estimation of the runoff composition in the three mountain streams. However, calibration against only runoff leads to unrealistic snow and glacier melt rates. Based on these results, we recommend using all three observational data sets in order to constrain model parameters and compute snow, glacier, and rain contributions. Finally, based on the comparison of model performance of different complexities, we postulate that the availability and use of different data sets to calibrate hydrological models might be more important than model complexity to achieve realistic estimations of runoff composition.

Evaluation of glacier changes in high‐mountain Asia based on 10 year GRACE RL05 models

AbstractIn this paper, 10 years of time‐variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Release 05 have been used to evaluate the glacier melting rate in high‐mountain Asia (HMA) using a new computing scheme, i.e., the Space Domain Inverse method. We find that in HMA area, there are three different kinds of signal sources that should be treated together. The two generally accepted sources, glacier melting and India underground water depletion, are estimated to change at the rate of −35.0 ± 5.8 Gt/yr (0.09 mm/yr sea level rising) and −30.6 ± 5.0 Gt/yr, respectively. The third source is the remarkable positive signal (+30 Gt/yr) in the inner Tibetan Plateau, which is challenging to explain. Further, we have found that there is a 5 year undulation in Pamir and Karakoram, which can explain the controversies of the previous studies on the glacier melting rate here. This 5 year signal can be explained by the influence of Arctic Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Future runoff from a partly glacierized watershed in Central Switzerland: A two-model approach

We present a comprehensive hydrological modeling study in the drainage area of a hydropower reservoir in central Switzerland. To investigate the response of this 95km2 alpine watershed to a changing climate, we used both a conceptual and a physically based hydrological model approach. The multi-model approach enabled detailed insights into the uncertainties associated with model projections of future runoff based on climate scenarios. Both hydrological models consistently predicted changes of the seasonal runoff dynamics, including the timing of snowmelt and peak-flow in summer as well as the future spread between high and low flow years. However the models disagreed regarding the evolution of glacier melt rates thus leading to a considerable difference in predicted annual runoff figures. The findings suggest that snow-glacier feedbacks require particular attention when predicting future runoff from glacio-nival watersheds.

Quantitative evaluation of different hydrological modelling approaches in a partly glacierized Swiss watershed

AbstractMountain water resources management often requires hydrological models that need to handle both snow and ice melt. In this study, we compared two different model types for a partly glacierized watershed in central Switzerland: (1) an energy‐balance model primarily designed for snow simulations; and (2) a temperature‐index model developed for glacier simulations. The models were forced with data extrapolated from long‐term measurement records to mimic the typical input data situation for climate change assessments. By using different methods to distribute precipitation, we also assessed how various snow cover patterns influenced the modelled runoff.The energy‐balance model provided accurate discharge estimations during periods dominated by snow melt, but dropped in performance during the glacier ablation season. The glacier melt rates were sensitive to the modelled snow cover patterns and to the parameterization of turbulent heat fluxes. In contrast, the temperature‐index model poorly reproduced snow melt runoff, but provided accurate discharge estimations during the periods dominated by glacier ablation, almost independently of the method used to distribute precipitation. Apparently, the calibration of this model compensated for the inaccurate precipitation input with biased parameters.Our results show that accurate estimates of snow cover patterns are needed either to correctly constrain the melt parameters of the temperature‐index model or to ensure appropriate glacier surface albedos required by the energy‐balance model. Thus, particularly when only distant meteorological stations are available, carefully selected input data and efficient extrapolation methods of meteorological variables improve the reliability of runoff simulations in high alpine watersheds. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Distribution of debris thickness and its effect on ice melt at Hailuogou glacier, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using in situ surveys and ASTER imagery

AbstractDebris cover is widely present in glacier ablation areas of the Tibetan Plateau, and its spatial distribution greatly affects glacier melt rates. High-resolution in situ measurements of debris thickness on Hailuogou glacier, Mount Gongga, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, show pronounced inhomogeneous debris distribution. An analysis of transverse and longitudinal profiles indicates that the ground-surveyed debris thicknesses and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER)-derived thermal resistances of debris layers correlate strongly over the entire ablation area. Across- and along-glacier patterns of ASTER-derived thermal resistance correspond well with spatial patterns of debris thickness, which may reflect large-scale variations in the extent and thickness of the debris cover. The ice melt rate variability over the ablation area simulated by a surface energy-balance model that considered thermal resistance of the debris layer indicates clearly the crucial role of debris and its spatial continuity in modifying the spatial characteristics of melt rates. Because of the inhomogeneous distribution of debris thickness, about 67% of the ablation area on Hailuogou glacier has undergone accelerated melting, whereas about 19% of the ablation area has experienced inhibited melting, and the sub-debris melt rate equals the bare-ice melt rate in only 14% of the ablation area.

An advancing glacier in a recessive ice regime: Berlingske Bræ, North-West Greenland

Greenland is receiving unprecedented international attention, both in scientific and political circles. Characterised by a central ice sheet up to 3.4 km thick (Inland Ice), numerous ice caps and hundreds of outlet glaciers debouching into the surrounding oceans, Greenland supports the second largest ice mass in the world. Analysis of glacier movements, melt rates and ice loss to the sea, provide data with which to assess mass balance changes and thereby predict global sealevel rise. Thus Greenland plays a central role in the current worldwide debate on climate change. Present-day dynamic ice loss is invariably advertised by the fast moving glaciers of western Greenland with their spectacular calf ice production, such as the ice streams around Disko Bugt reviewed by Weidick & Bennike (2007). This tends to overshadow ice stability and expansion seen in the form of stationary and advancing glaciers elsewhere in Greenland (MODIS 2009). While the seawards acceleration of glacier flow and retreat in frontal positions can be readily attributed to a shift in atmospheric and oceanic conditions (global warming), the same explanation can hardly be used for glaciers with contrasting movement histories.

Response of glacial-lake outburst floods to climate change in the Yarkant River basin on northern slope of Karakoram Mountains, China

Based on the glacial flood events and climate change in the Yarkant River basin during the past 50 years, the study investigated the long-term change of temperature and precipitation, the characteristics of glacial floods, the origin of sudden flood release, the suggested flood mechanism of glacial lakes and the relationship between glacial floods and climate change. Results showed that there was an obvious increase in the temperature of the basin since 1987. Specifically in the mountainous area, the significantly increasing temperature in the summer and autumn seasons accelerated the melting rate of glaciers and caused glacial-lake burst. Sudden flood release occurred frequently. The frequency of glacial-lake outburst floods was 0.4 times/a during the period 1959–1986 and increased to 0.7 times/a during 1997–2006. Peak discharge also increased. There were seven floods with peak discharge over 4000 m 3/s from 1959–2006, and three occurred after 1997. The increasing frequency and magnitude of glacial outburst floods mirrored the effect of climate warming on glaciers.

The Influence of Air Temperature Inversions on Snowmelt and Glacier Mass Balance Simulations, Ammassalik Island, Southeast Greenland

Abstract In many applications, a realistic description of air temperature inversions is essential for accurate snow and glacier ice melt, and glacier mass-balance simulations. A physically based snow evolution modeling system (SnowModel) was used to simulate 8 yr (1998/99–2005/06) of snow accumulation and snow and glacier ice ablation from numerous small coastal marginal glaciers on the SW part of Ammassalik Island in SE Greenland. These glaciers are regularly influenced by inversions and sea breezes associated with the adjacent relatively low temperature and frequently ice-choked fjords and ocean. To account for the influence of these inversions on the spatiotemporal variation of air temperature and snow and glacier melt rates, temperature inversion routines were added to MircoMet, the meteorological distribution submodel used in SnowModel. The inversions were observed and modeled to occur during 84% of the simulation period. Modeled inversions were defined not to occur during days with strong winds and high precipitation rates because of the potential of inversion breakup. Field observations showed inversions to extend from sea level to approximately 300 m MSL, and this inversion level was prescribed in the model simulations. Simulations with and without the inversion routines were compared. The inversion model produced air temperature distributions with warmer lower-elevation areas and cooler higher-elevation areas than without inversion routines because of the use of cold sea-breeze-based temperature data from underneath the inversion. This yielded an up to 2 weeks earlier snowmelt in the lower areas and up to 1–3 weeks later snowmelt in the higher-elevation areas of the simulation domain. Averaged mean annual modeled surface mass balance for all glaciers (mainly located above the inversion layer) was −720 ± 620 mm w.eq. yr−1 (w.eq. is water equivalent) for inversion simulations, and −880 ± 620 mm w.eq. yr−1 without the inversion routines, a difference of 160 mm w.eq. yr−1. The annual glacier loss for the two simulations was 50.7 × 106 and 64.4 × 106 m3 yr−1 for all glaciers—a difference of ∼21%. The average equilibrium line altitude (ELA) for all glaciers in the simulation domain was located at 875 and 900 m MSL for simulations with or without inversion routines, respectively.

An energy-balance model for debris-covered glaciers including heat conduction through the debris layer

AbstractExtensive covers of supraglacial debris are often present in glacier ablation areas, and it is essential to assess exactly how the debris affects glacier melt rates. This paper presents a physically based energy-balance model for the surface of a debris-covered glacier. The model is driven by meteorological variables, and was developed using data collected at Miage glacier, Italy, during the ablation seasons of 2005, 2006 and 2007. The debris surface temperature is numerically estimated by considering the balance of heat fluxes at the air/debris interface, and heat conduction through the debris is calculated in order to estimate melt rates at the debris/ice interface. The predicted hourly debris surface temperatures and debris internal temperatures provide a good fit to temperatures measured on rock-covered Miage glacier (r2 >0.94) and the tephra-covered glacier on Villarrica volcano, Chile (r2 >0.82). The model can also be used to reproduce observed changes in melt rates below debris layers of varying types and thicknesses, an important consideration for the overall mass balance of debris-covered glaciers.

A box model of circulation and melting in ice shelf caverns

A simple box model of the circulation into and inside the ocean cavern beneath an ice shelf is used to estimate the melt rates of Antarctic glaciers and ice shelves. The model uses simplified cavern geometries and includes a coarse parameterization of the overturning circulation and vertical mixing. The melting/freezing physics at the ice shelf/ocean interface are those usually implemented in high-resolution circulation models of ice shelf caverns. The model is driven by the thermohaline inflow conditions and coupling to the heat and freshwater exchanges at the sea surface in front of the cavern. We tune the model for Pine Island Glacier and then apply it to six other major caverns. The dependence of the melting rate on thermohaline conditions at the ice shelf front is investigated for this set of caverns, including sensitivity studies, alternative parameterizations, and warming scenarios. An analytical relation between the melting rate and the inflow temperature is derived for a particular model version, showing a quadratic dependence of basal melting on small values of the temperature of the inflow, which changes to a linear dependence for larger values. The model predicts melting at all ice shelf bases in agreement with observations, ranging from below a meter per year for Ronne Ice Shelf to about 25 m/year for the Pine Island Glacier. In a warming scenario with a one-degree increase of the inflow temperature, the latter glacier responds with a 1.4-fold increase of the melting rate. Other caverns respond by more than a tenfold increase, as, e.g., Ronne Ice Shelf. The model is suitable for use as a simple fast module izn coarse large-scale ocean models.

Generating and Synthesizing Paleoclimate Data to Assess Arctic Climate Change: PAGES Working Group Meeting: Arctic Climate During the Last 2 Millennia; Boulder, Colorado, 8 March 2008

Climate change in the Arctic is amplified by albedo feedbacks involving snow and ice. Between the nineteenth and 21st centuries, warming in the Arctic was very likely double that for the globe (see Impacts of a Warming Arctic, Cambridge University Press, 2004). This trend appears to have further accelerated during the past decade as evidenced by both the dramatic decrease of summer sea ice cover and increased melt rates of glaciers. The limited instrumental record covering only the past ˜50 years severely limits our understanding of multidecadal and centennial spatial and temporal variability.

Glacier mass balance variability in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru and its relationship with climate and the large-scale circulation

A 41-year-long reconstructed annual mean glacier mass balance record from the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, was investigated for its climate sensitivity toward temperature, humidity and precipitation, and its links with the large-scale atmospheric circulation. On interannual timescales precipitation variability appears to be the main driver for glacier mass balance fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca. This is corroborated by an analysis of the relationship between mass balance variations and local- to regional-scale precipitation variability. Temperature tends to enhance precipitation in driving the mass balance signal, as dry years are often characterized by warm conditions, while wet years usually coincide with cold anomalies. In some years, however, warm and wet or cold and dry conditions coincide, under which circumstances temperature minimizes or even neutralizes the effects of precipitation. Surface energy balance studies have shown that changes in atmospheric humidity significantly affect the melt rates of tropical glaciers, but the lack of long and high-quality in-situ measurements precludes a detailed quantitative assessment of its role on interannual timescales in the Cordillera Blanca. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific exert the dominant large-scale forcing on interannual time scales, leading to negative mass balance anomalies during El Niño and above average mass balance during La Niña episodes. In general the teleconnection mechanism linking ENSO with glacier mass balance is similar to what has previously been described for the Bolivian Altiplano region. Changes in the upper-tropospheric zonal flow aloft associated with ENSO conditions determine the amount of snowfall during the wet season and thereby significantly affect the glacier mass balance. Because this teleconnection mechanism is spatially unstable and oscillates latitudinally along the subtropical Andes, it affects the Cordillera Blanca in most, but not all years. The relationship between ENSO and glacier mass balance is therefore characterized by occasional ‘break downs’, more common since the mid-1970's, when El Niño years with above average mass balance and La Niña events with negative mass balance have been observed.

Mountain expeditions: minimising the impact

Mountains of the world are the prime sources of glaciers and scenic beauty. However, for the last two decades biotic pressure due to expeditions, trekking, tourism and transhumance practices by the shepherds is continuously increasing in these areas. Practices like indiscriminate throwing of wastes, leaving behind self generated wastes and emission of poisonous gases from unattended wastes, cutting of trees like Rhododendron spp. (for fuelwood), introduction of hybrid sheep to replace indigenous ones, extraction of invaluable and endangered medicinal plants, reduction in wildlife because of illegal hunting and poaching (for meat, skin and medicine) adversely affect the expedition areas. The study conducted in one of the expeditions to the Pindari Valley of Indian Himalayas shows that 60.68% nonbiodegradable waste problem can be resolved by reuse (39.34%) and recycling (21.34%). But all the wastes need to be brought back by the visitors from expedition/trekking areas to the road heads for easy transportation to places where it can be re-used, recycled or new products discovered with innovative recovery initiatives. Also, public involvement in minimising the adverse eco-impacts is a must. Under such high biotic pressure, problem of solid waste, high melting rate of glaciers, a rational use of scarce local resources is urgently needed.

Mass balance and streamflow variability at Place Glacier, Canada, in relation to recent climate fluctuations

AbstractAlthough a great deal of research has focused on the hydrologic effects of climate variability and change, relatively little research has examined the effects on streamflow of interactions between climate variability and change and resulting glacier response. Place Glacier, in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada, has been monitored for mass balance since 1965, and a stream gauge was operated just below the glacier terminus from 1969 to 1989. This paper presents analyses of the mass balance history and streamflow variations in relation to recorded climatic variability.Place Glacier's winter and net balances are correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Summer balance is positively correlated with summer temperature and negatively with the preceding winter balance, which enhances the effects of changes in winter balance on net balance. The well‐documented post‐1976 shift from the PDO cold phase to the present warm phase initiated a significant and persistent period of more negative net balance and terminal retreat. A reconstruction of net balance extending back to the 1890s, based on a regression with winter precipitation and summer temperature, displays decadal‐scale fluctuations consistent with the PDO. Summer streamflow responded to interannual variations in winter snow accumulation and summer temperatures, which control the rate of rise of the glacier snowline and melt rates. After accounting for these influences via regression analysis, August streamflow displayed a negative trend in total runoff. Examination of air photographs and the reconstructed mass balance history suggest that significant firn depletion had occurred prior to 1965, such that the dominant effect of glacier changes was a reduction in ice area, resulting in decreased meltwater production. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.