Medium-term Perspective Research Articles

Effects of modernization and medium term perspectives on water and energy use in irrigation districts

Effects of modernization and medium term perspectives on water and energy use in irrigation districts

High intraspecific ability to adjust both carbon uptake and allocation under light and nutrient reduction in Halimium halimifolium L.

The allocation of recently assimilated carbon (C) by plants depends on developmental stage and on environmental factors, but the underlying mechanisms are still a matter of debate. In the present study, we investigated the regulation of C uptake and allocation and their adjustments during plant growth. We induced different allocation strategies in the Mediterranean shrub Halimium halimifolium L. by a reduction of light (Low L treatment) and nutrient availability (Low N treatment) and analyzed allocation parameters as well as morphological and physiological traits for 15 months. Further, we conducted a 13CO2 pulse-labeling and followed the way of recently assimilated carbon to eight different tissue classes and respiration for 13 days. The plant responses were remarkably distinct in our study, with mainly morphological/physiological adaptions in case of light reduction and adjustment of C allocation in case of nutrient reduction. The transport of recently assimilated C to the root system was enhanced in amount (c. 200%) and velocity under nutrient limited conditions compared to control plants. Despite the 57% light reduction the total biomass production was not affected in the Low L treatment. The plants probably compensated light reduction by an improvement of their ability to fix C. Thus, our results support the concept that photosynthesis is, at least in a medium term perspective, influenced by the C demand of the plant and not exclusively by environmental factors. Finally, our results indicate that growing heterotrophic tissues strongly reduce the C reflux from storage and structural C pools and therefore enhance the fraction of recent assimilates allocated to respiration. We propose that this interruption of the C reflux from storage and structural C pools could be a regulation mechanism for C translocation in plants.

The Right to Education in Minority Languages in Bosnia And Herzegovina: The Case of Roma Minority

The Roma right to education is guaranteed in the constitution of BiH with the same right to have education in the Romani language as well. Although evidence from research and studies conducted by state and non state institution provides data that firstly Roma enrolement in the educational system is very low and secondly Romani language is almost not learned in any school of the country. This situation fells the domestic provisions of the right of education in the language of different citizens of the country and the international standards that the BiH have ratified and incorporated in its domestic legal provisions. This problem has been a concern for almost 10 years, handled from state institutional mechanisms prespective and non governmental organizations. Policy strategy have been proposed and mechanisms have been deployed in order to foreseen the situation but evidence provides that positive shift toward this issue is very low and with less projection for the future. This policy paper provides a policy solution on short to medium term perspective proposing “Encouraging greater Roma participation in primary, lower secondary and post-compulsory education”. In order to deal with policy proposal I argue for this following recomendations: 1).Supporting enrolement of Roma children, creating more facilitative process of enrolment of pupils. 2).Creation of special classes within the school rather special school –3).Budgetary Fund for Roma Education .4) Romani classes goal –. Creating tertiary education curricula in order to have specialists to teach Romai in primary or secondary schools. DOI: 10.5901/ajis.2015.v4n2p441

La vivienda en la Costa del Sol occidental

En las ultimas décadas, la vivienda secundaria experimenta un llamativo crecimiento en la Costa del Sol Occidental. Las perspectivas a corto y medio plazo hacen esperar el sostenimiento e incluso intensificación del fenómeno. Varios factores explican esta creciente demanda, entre ellos destacan las inmejorables condiciones de la oferta en comparación con otras áreas turísticas mediterráneas, y cuestiones como la generación de comportamientos sociales diferentes al tradicional modelo de familia, que repercuten en el mayor consumo de vivienda.

Premises and Convergent Factors of Regional Development

In article are considered approaches to the overcoming problem resolution of regional inequality, the accruing territorial differentiation and disintegration, which becomes the primary factor, which is slowing down social and economic development of the country. The main factors promoting regional convergence development in the instable world and domestic economy conditions, adverse external environment, economic sanctions of the western countries are investigated. The relevance of forming of the convergent strategy development of regions directed at overcoming of territorial disintegration and a regional inequality is proved. The essence and a role of convergence of social and economic systems are revealed; hypotheses of convergence and divergence are investigated. The conclusion that strategy of convergent development can play consolidating and stabilizing factor role, means of ensuring of social and economic stability, increase of competitiveness and economic safety in regions in medium-term and long-term perspectives is drawn. Based on the analysis of essence, the principle, types and the main mechanisms of convergence are revealed and characterized; a set of the managerial measures promoting the convergent development of the Russian regions is defined. It is proved that the main premises, convergence regions engines in modern conditions are transport and construction, which promote most mobility of major factors of production, attraction of qualitative labor power, increase of investment appeal of the region. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n3s4p191

Impact of Climate Change on the Phenological Development of Winter Wheat, Sugar Beet and Winter Oilseed Rape in Lower Saxony, Germany

There is a general agreement that climate change, in the medium and long term perspective, may affect agricultural crops. As part of the KLIFF project (’Klimafolgenforschung in Niedersachsen‘, consequences of climatic change in Lower Saxony), the impact of climatic changes on the main crops grown in Lower Saxony (Germany) were analyzed with regard to the potential risks of plant diseases. However, climate does not only affect pathogens and diseases directly, but also the phenological development of the crop plants. In the following paper, the consequences of an increase in temperature in the medium (2020–2050) and long (2070–2100) term perspective on the appearance of the main phe-nological stages of wheat, sugar beet and winter oilseed rape were analyzed. In this study, three simulation models were involved that predict the appearance of phenological stages using the date of sowing of the crop and the forecasted temperatures from the climate model REMO-UBA (high resolution regional climate model data) as input data. The results of the simulations for the 3 crops show that an earlier appearance of the phenological stages in both the medium and long term simulation is to be expected. Model calculations indicate a particular shift to an earlier mean appearance of phenological stages of 0.14, 0.13 and 0.44 days year−1 (mean trend of the regression analysis for the period 1970–2100) for winter wheat, sugar beet and winter oilseed rape, respectively. Such shifts may have significant consequences for the coincidence of susceptible stages of the crop and infective stages of pathogens and may thus cause decreases, increases or balance shifts in the relative importance of individual pathogens in the future, besides the direct climate change effects on diseases. A comparison of the results of this study with available literature data shows, for example, negative consequences for wheat due to the increased risk of infection by leaf rust, tan spot and septoria leaf spot while the risk of infection of powdery mildew remains unchanged. Cercospora leaf spot on sugar beet may appear at an earlier stage of development of the plant, while the risk of Sclerotinia infection for winter oilseed rape is reduced. The advance in phenological stages of crops addressed in this study could have a positive effect on crop yield; however, this effect can be reduced due to the increased risk of diseases, particularly for wheat and sugar beet.

Development of a Photosynthetic Microbial Electrochemical Cell (PMEC) Reactor Coupled with Dark Fermentation of Organic Wastes: Medium Term Perspectives

In this article the concept, the materials and the exploitation potential of a photosynthetic microbial electrochemical cell for the production of hydrogen driven by solar power are investigated. In a photosynthetic microbial electrochemical cell, which is based on photosynthetic microorganisms confined to an anode and heterotrophic bacteria confined to a cathode, water is split by bacteria hosted in the anode bioactive film. The generated electrons are conveyed through external “bio-appendages” developed by the bacteria to transparent nano-pillars made of indium tin oxide (ITO), Fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO) or other conducting materials, and then transferred to the cathode. On the other hand, the generated protons diffuse to the cathode via a polymer electrolyte membrane, where they are reduced by the electrons by heterotrophic bacteria growing attached to a similar pillared structure as that envisaged for the anode and supplemented with a specific low cost substrate (e.g., organic waste, anaerobic digestion outlet). The generated oxygen is released to the atmosphere or stored, while the produced pure hydrogen leaves the electrode through the porous layers. In addition, the integration of the photosynthetic microbial electrochemical cell system with dark fermentation as acidogenic step of anaerobic digester, which is able to produce additional H2, and the use of microbial fuel cell, feed with the residues of dark fermentation (mainly volatile fatty acids), to produce the necessary extra-bias for the photosynthetic microbial electrochemical cell is here analyzed to reveal the potential benefits to this novel integrated technology.

Трансатлантические отношения во внешней политике Германии

Relations between Germany, the US and NATO today are the core of transatlantic links. After the Cold War and the reunification of Germany, NATO has lost its former importance to Germany which was not a "frontline state" anymore. The EU acquired a greater importance for German politicians applying both for certain political independence and for establishing of a broad partnership with Russia and China. The task of the European Union Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) development has been regarded by Berlin as a necessary component of the NATO's transformation into a “balanced Euro-American alliance”, and the realization of this project as the most important prerequisite for a more independent foreign policy. Germany’s refusal to support the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 led to the first serious crisis in US Germany relations. At the same time, there was no radical break of the deeply rooted Atlanticism tradition in German policy. It was Angela Merkel as a new head of the German government (2005) who managed to smooth largely disagreements in relations with the United States. Atlanticism remains one of the fundamental foreign policy elements for any German government, mostly because Berlin’s hope for deepening of the European integration and transition to the EU CFSP seems unrealistic in the foreseeable future. However, there is still a fundamental basis of disagreements emerged in the transatlantic relationship (reduction of a military threat weakening Berlin’s dependence from Washington, and the growing influence of Germany in the European Union). According to the federal government's opinion, Germany's contribution to the NATO military component should not be in increasing, but in optimizing of military expenses. However, taking into account the incipient signs of the crisis overcoming in the EU, and still a tough situation around Ukraine, it seems that in the medium-term perspective one should expect further enhancing of Germany’s participation in NATO military activities and, therefore, a growth in its military expenses. In Berlin, there is a wide support for the idea of the European army. However, most experts agree that it can be implemented only when the EU develops the Common Foreign and Defense Policy to a certain extent. The US Germany espionage scandals following one after another since 2013 have seriously undermined the traditional German trust to the United States as a reliable partner. However, under the impact of the Ukrainian conflict, the value of military-political dimension of Germany’s transatlantic relations and its dependence on the US and NATO security guarantees increased. At the same time, Washington expects from Berlin as a recognized European leader a more active policy toward Russia and in respect of some other international issues. In the current international political situation, the desire to expand political influence in the world and achieve a greater autonomy claimed by German leaders seems to Berlin only possible in the context of transatlantic relations strengthening and solidarity within the NATO the only military-political organization of the West which is able to ensure the collective defense for its members against the external threats. However, it is important to take into consideration that not only the value of the United States and NATO for Germany, but also the role of Germany in the North Atlantic Alliance as a “representative of European interests” has increased. The role of Germany as a mediator in establishing the West–Russia relations remains equally important.

The Consequences of the Imposition of Restrictions on Pork Imports in 2014 and the Import Substitution Prospects for Russia's Domestic Pig Farming Sector

The short-term consequences of the bans imposed in 2014 on pork imports into Russia from the countries that used to be major suppliers of meat to this country are as follows: an altered geography of import supplies, rising prices on the pork market and related markets, and plummeting consumer demand for meat and meat products. At the same time, the medium-term perspective offers some favorable opportunities for turning the domestic pig farming sector into the main source of import substitution. The present course towards boosting import substitution is fraught with the risk of overinvestment into that sector with the resulting market oversaturation, while the rate of return on investment in the sector is too low to ensure loan repayment.

Analysis of the dynamics and structure of expenses in Russia’s oil and gas complex over the 2000–2011 period and forecasts until 2020

The authors of this study analyze trends in operating and capital expenses in Russia’s oil and gas sector in 2000–2011 using available statistical data and give their forecast estimates for the industry in the medium-term perspective.

Effects of modernization and medium term perspectives on water and energy use in irrigation districts

Increasing of water use efficiency has been a key strategy for dealing with water scarcity in semiarid countries. In Spain modernization of irrigation schemes has consisted in the substitution of old open channels systems by pressurized networks. However, this improvement has represented a significant increase in water costs, mainly due to the higher energy requirements.Five irrigation districts of Andalusia, Southern Spain, have been analyzed using performance indicators, before and after the improvement actions. Results indicate an average reduction in water diverted for irrigation of 23%, but water costs increased in 52%. Consequently, farmers are migrating to more profitable crops, such as citrus, with higher water requirements. Furthermore, managers’ predictions about the cropping patterns for the 2020s suggest that the area devoted to citrus production will increase by 12%, implying even higher potential maximum irrigation water demand. Hence, farmers will have to adapt to a future scenario by using deficit irrigation and other water saving technologies. Consequently, the vulnerability of the irrigated agriculture to the typical droughts of the Mediterranean climate may increase.

Fiscal consolidations and public debt in Europe

The objective of this paper is to gain insights into the relationship between deficit-reducing policies and the evolution of the debt/GDP ratio. We consider past events of fiscal consolidation in a selected group of EU countries and check what is the associated change of the debt/GDP ratio both from a short- and medium-term perspective. In the analysis, we also differentiate between tax-based and savings-based fiscal consolidations and the pre-Euro and Euro periods. Our results point towards a positive short-term effect, while the medium-term effect turns out to be negative. Savings-based fiscal consolidations result to be less negative on the DGR evolution than tax-based ones. The Euro’s introduction seems not to have altered significantly the relationship studied.

Trend Change(s) in Coastal Management Plans: the integration of short and medium term perspectives in the spatial planning process

Alves, F.L., Sousa, L.P., Esteves, T.C., Oliveira, E.R., Antunes, I.C., Fernandes, M.L., Carvalho, L., Barroso, S., Pereira, M., 2014. Trend Change(s) in Coastal Management Plans: the integration of short and medium term perspectives in the spatial planning process. In: Green, A.N. and Cooper, J.A.G. (eds.), Proceedings 13th International Coastal Symposium (Durban, South Africa), Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 70, pp. 437–442, ISSN 0749-0208.Spatial planning can be seen as an interdisciplinary science that ensures sustainable development and land use, since it integrates policy, social, cultural, economic and environmental management issues. Marine and coastal spatial planning is particularly challenging due to their vulnerable, dynamic and complex nature and to the problems associated with sea level rise, erosion processes and land-use pressures in the coastal zone. Coastal erosion, flooding and shoreline retreat are serious problems along the coast of mainland Portugal. By using an innovative approach of coastal zone spatial planning, this study developed an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan for the Portuguese central region (stretch Ovar - Marinha Grande), where alternative planning policies to the previous ones were suggested. The study revealed that socio-economic analysis and the identification and valuation of ecosystems services and land use need to be incorporated in spatial planning to support decision-making favouring sustainable development. According to these approaches the Coastal Plan was developed considering three environmental scenarios to respond to the coastal erosion trends, based on a development model for the coastal region. In addition, the scenarios consider the public investments constraints (national budget) expected in the next decade and the short and medium term of the Plan. This Plan is differentiated from the previous by attempting to lessen further coastal erosion through the integration of different jurisdictions, legislations and directive measures and applying them to the terrain. This strategy shows itself as relevant to promote further forward-thinking Plans for other Portuguese coastal areas.

Contribution of microfinance to economic growth: Transmission channel and the ways to test it

Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) play a major role in economic growth in developed and developing countries. For example, in the European Union, SMEs contribute to over 99% of all enterprises and more than 100 million jobs, representing 67% of private sector employment. In the Lodz Metropolitan Area (LMA) SMEs play a decisive role in economic development and their economic condition translates into the condition of the sub-region. Hence, the main objective of the paper is the assessment of SMEs operations in the LMA by the identification of development factors and barriers to economic activity. The paper uses the results of a direct study of the group of 171 small and medium sized enterprises conducted in 2012. We applied various statistical tools useful in processing data from questionnaires, e.g. cross-sectional analysis, averages, variation coefficients, Cramer’s V, and internal consistency coefficient Cronbach’s alpha. The paper goes on to discuss the competitiveness of goods and services produced by companies included in the study by making reference to theories of sources of competitive advantage. Its important part will be devoted to the assessment of SMEs operating conditions taking account of 30 factors that facilitate or hamper business activity. The analysis will also cover enterprises’ opinions on selling opportunities in a medium-term perspective. These opinions will be presented in various cross-sectional studies.

Capacity Mechanisms on Central European Electricity Markets: Effects on Consumers, Producers and Technologies Until 2033

The reduced attractiveness of investments in reliable power plants under conditions of liberalized markets and the transition towards renewable energies has brought a discussion on capacity policies to Europe. We use a partial equilibrium model to compare important effects of three basic policies. A strategic reserve policy and a capacity market policy with administratively set capacity targets, and the obligation of generators to hold certificates of reliable capacities in relation to their supply. We find important differences of policies for consumers and producers that are depending on existing power plant structure and the elasticity of demand particularly in the medium term perspective until the year 2023. In the longer term until 2033 the results differ less pronounced. However, for the German case we demonstrate the potential to effectively reduce the burden on the economy to achieve a prescribed target through the implementation of a capacity certificate system.

Empowerment of Self Help Groups (SHGs) towards Microenterprise Development

The main thrust of micro finance, in medium and long term perspectives, should be to empower the SHG members to enable them to undertake income generating microenterprises on a viable and sustainable basis. The paper aims at examining empirically the determinants of empowerment of SHGs as micro finance clients to microenterprise investors and problems faced by them in this transition as well as in undertaking microenterprises on a viable and sustainable basis. For this purpose, an attempt is made in this paper to construct a consolidated empowerment index of SHGs based on the level of institutional and financial performance of the SHGs of different promoters studied in different districts and determine the relative importance of various determinant factors by using correlation matrix and regression model.

Multiannual budgetary frameworks – Polish experiences

According to the conclusions resulting from the review of the quality of public fi nances carried out by the OECD, the introduction of medium-term perspective in budgetary planning enhances the ability of the government, the Ministry of Finance in particular, to design and maintain a sustainable fi scal path. Activities (public interventions) that are implemented by the public sector are in most cases of a multiannual nature. Strategies and development programs, including public investments and the process to consolidate and restructure public fi nances, are of multiannual character. The effects of activities and their physical results are often delayed in time from the moment of their planning and rarely close during a single fi scal year. The EU Council Directive on requirements for budgetary frameworks of the Member States (hereinafter: the Directive) imposes an obligation to base budget planning on a credible and effective medium-term budgetary framework with at least a three-year perspective. In compliance to the Directive, the mediumterm framework includes multiannual targets for defi cit and debt, expenditure and revenue forecasts, description of activities, as well as the assessment of impact of the adopted medium-term framework for multiannual stability of public fi nances. Every subsequent annual budget law should be consistent with the medium-term budgetary framework. The gist of this approach can be found in the actions taken by individual countries around the world. According to the data available at the end of 2012, some

(The Macroeconomic Effects of International Risks on Korean Economy in a Medium-Term Perspective)

(The Macroeconomic Effects of International Risks on Korean Economy in a Medium-Term Perspective)

Romania and the EMU Enlargement - The Illusions of Real Convergence

As an effect of the “no opt-out” clause, Romania is facing, rather soon, the Euro adoption challenge along with all its implications, an aim that has become rather challenging given the recent evolutions in Greece, Ireland or Portugal. Apart from foreseeing the future of the Euro-Zone, serious questions are being raised around the real convergence process and its contribution to the actual crises. The lack of convergence from the OCA criteria point of view is more and more envisaged as the missing puzzle piece in a functional monetary union system. This paper wishes to accomplish a brief evaluation of Romania’s real convergence to the Euro-Zone. But this is not the only issue raised here. Apart from that, in accurately quantifying real convergence we must focus on the most expressive and suitable set of indicators for the real convergence, as literature has not yet imposed a single set as universal or at least as generally agreed upon. In assessing real convergence as a certain aim for Romania on a medium term perspective, this paper envisages the Optimal Currency Area theory.Convergent evolution may be influenced by several factors which show the evolution of main disparities in compared economies. Taking this into account we shall also compute the variation coefficient of the GDP per capita or the σ-convergence as an expression of the dispersion of this indicator.

Of Waste and Media: The Italian Newspapers’ Coverage of the 2008 Waste Emergency in Naples and its Consequences on Local Public Opinion in Turin

Public participation and consensual decision-making on the part of all stakeholders (e.g. political institutions and local communities) are presently two of the most shared leitmotifs in determining plants locations. Far from assuming deterministic perspectives, a key role is played by the media, whose narrative influence can drive the negotiation strategies between citizens and promoters towards different outcomes. No matter what tag is applied on local controversies and conflicts associated to these projects (i.e. NIMBY, BANANA, LULU, and so on and so forth) research studies that specifically focus on the active role of the media are still few, and this is especially the case in Italy. As a part of an on-going 5-year research study on the social impact of the incinerator currently under construction in Turin, Italy, this paper is mostly concerned with the 2008 Italian newspaper coverage of the waste emergency in Naples. Secondly, data from the mass media analysis are cross-tabulated with those coming from a longitudinal survey and various focus groups, giving empirical evidence of the effects of press coverage on public opinion towards technology. Some parts of the contents have been mentioned earlier in a brief editorial (Tipaldo 2012), but here are accompanied by a broader empirical documentation. The work demonstrates a highly emphatic and dramatized communication has been employed by Italian newspapers to describe the Naples' waste emergency as a new Chernobyl, the sole solution of which would be incineration with energy recovery. Alternate solutions to incineration were given short shrift and limited space in press coverage. By making the local emergency in Naples a sort of Hirschman's catalytic event nation-wide, the media strongly influenced public opinion from a short term perspective, inducing people (particularly those of low cultural profile) to agree with a waste-to-energy philosophy. Hence, the strong rise of positive attitudes towards the incineration plant in Turin between 2007 and 2008. With that coverage losing its intensity after the second half of 2008, a general sense of uncertainty, possibly due to a crowding-out effect, is detected among interviewees in the 2009 wave, whereas a sharp reversal of trend towards more critical positions is clearly evident from the latest 2011 data. Thus, in a medium-term perspective, forms of communication strongly affected by sensationalism, alarmism and oversimplification, beyond the relevant ethical implications, do not appear to give any ROI (Return On Investments) in delicate and controversial technoscientific issues, but may be counterproductive for everyone: end-users, institutions, industry stakeholders and media reputation.