The Yangtze River Midstream Urban Agglomeration is a pivotal economic zone in China. Over the past 35 years, climate change has increased ecosystem vulnerability and instability in this area. Therefore, assessing landscape ecological risk (LER) is vital for this region. This study analyzed LER variations from 1985 to 2020 using statistical methods and landscape indices, and forecasted LER changes from 2025 to 2050 with multi-model meteorological data. Results show the following: (1) LER indices have decreased over the last 35 years, with a notable shift from high-risk to medium-risk areas. High LER areas remained concentrated in low-elevation, densely urbanized central regions, indicating severe ecological damage compared to high-elevation areas. (2) Climate change significantly impacts the LER index, with temperature exerting a stronger influence than precipitation. Overall, LER decreases with rising temperatures and precipitation, though some cities exhibit opposite trends. (3) Future multi-Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios suggest a general decrease in LER with increased temperature and decreased precipitation, predominantly resulting in low- and medium-risk zones. High LER areas will persist in low-elevation zones, particularly in the southern and central plains. Given the high LER in the plains, the timely governmental regulation and control measures are essential for ensuring ecologically sustainable development.
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