Flood risk transfer analysis based on the “Source-Sink” theory and its impact on ecological environment: A case study of the Poyang Lake Basin, China

Abstract

Driven by climate change, the frequent occurrence of regional destructive floods poses a grave threat to socio-economic systems and ecological environments. Previous flood risk studies have disregarded risk transfer within a region, resulting in inadequate flood risk assessment and ineffective disaster prevention and mitigation outcomes. Therefore, this study introduced the “Source-Sink” theory into flood disaster field to constructing flood risk transfer model. Flood risk assessment and transfer was conducted in the Poyang Lake Basin, China, where the impacts of the initial and transfer statuses on ecosystem service values were quantified. The results showed that the flood risk in the Poyang Lake Basin was relatively low, with high spatial distribution characteristics in the central-north areas but low in the surrounding areas. High-risk zones were mainly distributed southwest of the Poyang Lake. The lower-risk zones exhibited a contiguous distribution and were surrounded by higher-risk zones. Following the completion of the flood risk transfer, high-risk zones increased significantly; but there were a few zones where the risk was transferred to other zones, thereby lowering their risks. Flood risk transfer occurs primarily in low- and medium-risk zones, with high-risk zones being the most important growth targets. The change in risk transfer was most evident in the area surrounding Poyang Lake, while that in the Upper Gan River Basin was lower and less sensitive to the transfer effect. Accounting for flood disaster risk, the ecosystem service values of the Poyang Lake Basin decreased by 8.18 %, with the most significant impacts observed in the surrounding environment and southwest Poyang Lake. After the completion of the flood risk transfer, the ecosystem service value in the Poyang Lake Basin declined by 24.66 %. This study provides a reference point for flood risk management and sustainable regional development that account for risk transfer.