Mean Population Growth Rate Research Articles

A demographic survey of the Davis Strait polar bear subpopulation using physical and genetic capture‐recapture‐recovery sampling

AbstractConducting assessments to understand the effects of changing environmental conditions on polar bear (Ursus maritimus) demography has become increasingly important to inform management and conservation. Here, we combined physical (2005–2007) and genetic (2017–2018) mark‐recapture with harvest recovery data (2005–2018) to estimate demographic rates of the Davis Strait polar bear subpopulation and examine the possible effects of climate, dynamic ice habitat, and prey resources on survival. Large sample sizes (e.g., 2,513 marked animals) allowed us to estimate temporal variation in annual survival rates using multistate mark‐recapture‐recovery models. We did not detect statistically significant effects of climate, ice habitat, and prey during the 13‐year study. Estimated total abundance in 2006 was 2,190, credible interval (CRI) [1,954, 2,454] and 1,944, CRI [1,593, 2,366] in 2018. Geometric mean population growth rate (0.99, 95% CRI [0.97, 1.01]) indicated the subpopulation may have declined slightly between 2006 and 2018. However, we did not detect a declining trend in survival or substantial change in reproductive metrics over this period. Given forecasts of major environmental change we emphasize the need to review monitoring programs for this subpopulation.

Effects of salinity on survival, reproductive performance, population growth, and life stage composition in the calanoid copepod Acartia bilobata

Copepods are a critical live prey item for most marine finfish larvae in the natural environment. The calanoid copepod belonging to species Acartia is a potential live food for the larval rearing of marine finfishes because of their higher productivity and tolerance to wide range of salinities. The present study was conducted to determine the effect of salinity on production parameters to standardize the optimal salinity for Acartia bilobata culture. For selecting the optimal salinity range, the adult copepods were exposed to abrupt salinity change from 30 g L−1 to ten salinity levels, including 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 45 g L−1 and their survival estimated after 24 h. Further, the effect of salinity (15, 20,25,30, and 35 g L−1) on egg production, hatching success and population growth were studied. Following sudden salinity change, A. bilobata could tolerate a wide range of salinities from 15 to 35 g L−1, and no copepod survived below 10 g L−1 and above 35 g L−1. Average daily egg production was significantly higher at 25 and 30 g L−1 (32 ± 1 and 34 ± 2 eggs female−1 day−1). A remarkably low egg hatching success was recorded at 15 g L−1 salinity; however, all other tested salinities showed similar egg hatching success. Different salinity levels did not affect the sex ratio of A. bilobata. A significantly higher total population number (1539 ± 75) and intrinsic population growth rate (0.50 ± 0.00) was observed at 30 g L−1, followed by 25 g L−1 salinity. The lowest mean population (518 ± 19) and population growth rate (0.39 ± 0.00) were recorded at 15 g L−1 salinity. The study results suggested that 25–30 g L−1 is the optimal salinity range to achieve maximal production of A. bilobata.

Range-Wide Population Projections for Northern Red-Bellied Cooters (Pseudemys rubriventris)

Northern Red-Bellied Cooters (Pseudemys rubriventris) have a disjunct distribution with a relictual population in southeastern Massachusetts and a larger range across the mid-Atlantic United States. The relictual population is currently listed with protections under the U.S. Endangered Species Act but the status of the population in the remainder of the species' range has not been assessed, and there is concern that it may be at risk of extinction without protection. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service requires scientific information of the species' status to inform conservation decisions. There is little empirical information available from P. rubriventris populations and, furthermore, the majority of what exists comes from the disjunct northern subpopulation. To fill data gaps in the species' life history and reduce geographic bias, we supplement available data from P. rubriventris with demographic rate estimates from other Pseudemys species to parameterize an age-structured population projection model. Our estimate of mean population growth rate was 0.987 (0.92–1.04), indicating that P. rubriventris populations may be in decline. However, there was considerable uncertainty in our results, with 35% of projections resulting in stable or increasing populations. Additional uncertainty about parameter values, geographic variation, and current threats limit the assessment. We discuss the merits and limitations of our population projection modeling (PPM) approach where other analytical methods are precluded by lack of available data.

An automated work-flow for pinniped surveys: A new tool for monitoring population dynamics

Detecting changes in population trends depends on the accuracy of estimated mean population growth rates and thus the quality of input data. However, monitoring wildlife populations poses economic and logistic challenges especially in complex and remote habitats. Declines in wildlife populations can remain undetected for years unless effective monitoring techniques are developed, guiding appropriate management actions. We developed an automated survey workflow using unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) to quantify the number and size of individual animals, using the well-studied Scandinavian harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) as a model species. We compared ground-based counts using telescopes with manual flights, using a zoom photo/video, and pre-programmed flights producing orthomosaic photo maps. We used machine learning to identify and count both pups and older seals and we present a new method for measuring body size automatically. We evaluate the population’s reproductive success using drone data, historical counts and predictions from a Leslie matrix population model. The most accurate and time-efficient results were achieved by performing pre-programmed flights where individual seals are identified by machine learning and their body sizes are measured automatically. The accuracy of the machine learning detector was 95–97% and the classification error was 4.6 ± 2.9 for pups and 3.1 ± 2.1 for older seals during good light conditions. There was a clear distinction between the body sizes of pups and older seals during breeding time. We estimated 320 pups in the breeding season 2021 with the drone, which is well beyond the expected number, based on historical data on pup production. The new high quality data from the drone survey confirms earlier indications of a deteriorating reproductive rate in this important harbour seal colony. We show that aerial drones and machine learning are powerful tools for monitoring wildlife in inaccessible areas which can be used to assess annual recruitment and seasonal variations in body condition.

Interaction of traffic intensity and habitat features shape invasion dynamics of an invasive alien species (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in a regional road network

Road corridors are important conduits for plant invasions, and an understanding of the underlying mechanisms is necessary for efficient management of invasive alien species in road networks. Previous studies identified road type with different traffic volumes as a key driver of seed dispersal and abundance of alien plants along roads. However, how the intensity of traffic interacts with the habitat features of roadsides in shaping invasion processes is not sufficiently understood. To elucidate these interactions, we analyzed the population dynamics of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a common non-indigenous annual species in Europe and other continents, in a regional road network in Germany. Over a period of five years, we recorded plant densities at roadsides along four types of road corridors, subject to different intensities of traffic, and with a total length of about 300 km. We also classified roadsides in regard to habitat features (disturbance, shade). This allowed us to determine corridor- and habitat-specific mean population growth rates and spatial-temporal shifts in roadside plant abundances at the regional scale. Our results show that both traffic intensity and roadside habitat features significantly affect the population dynamics of ragweed. The combination of high traffic intensity and high disturbance intensity led to the highest mean population growth whereas population growth in less suitable habitats (e.g. shaded roadsides) declined with decreasing traffic intensity. We conclude that high traffic facilitates ragweed invasion along roads, likely due to continued seed dispersal, and can compensate partly for less suitable habitat features (i.e. shade) that decrease population growth along less trafficked roads. As a practical implication, management efforts to decline ragweed invasions within road networks (e.g. by repeated mowing) should be prioritized along high trafficked roads, and roadside with disturbed, open habitats should be reduced as far as possible, e.g. by establishing grassland from the regional species pool.

Density Dependence and Adult Survival Drive Dynamics in Two High Elevation Amphibian Populations

Amphibian conservation has progressed from the identification of declines to mitigation, but efforts are hampered by the lack of nuanced information about the effects of environmental characteristics and stressors on mechanistic processes of population regulation. Challenges include a paucity of long-term data and scant information about the relative roles of extrinsic (e.g., weather) and intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) factors. We used a Bayesian formulation of an open population capture-recapture model and >30 years of data to examine intrinsic and extrinsic factors regulating two adult boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) populations. We modelled population growth rate and apparent survival directly, assessed their temporal variability, and derived estimates of recruitment. Populations were relatively stable (geometric mean population growth rate >1) and regulated by negative density dependence (i.e., higher population sizes reduced population growth rate). In the smaller population, density dependence also acted on adult survival. In the larger population, higher population growth was associated with warmer autumns. Survival estimates ranged from 0.30–0.87, per-capita recruitment was <1 in most years, and mean seniority probability was >0.50, suggesting adult survival is more important to population growth than recruitment. Our analysis indicates density dependence is a primary driver of population dynamics for P. maculata adults.

Abundance, survival and population growth of killer whales Orcinus orca at subantarctic Marion Island

Killer whales, Orcinus orca, are a cosmopolitan species with large ecological and demographic variation across populations. Population‐specific demographic studies are, therefore, crucial in accurately assessing the status and trends of local killer whale populations. Such studies require long‐term datasets and remain scarce, particularly in the Southern Ocean where detailed population specific studies have only been conducted at a single archipelago – Îles Crozet. Here, we analysed 12 years of capture–recapture data (comprising nearly 90 000 identification photographs taken from 2006 to 2018) of killer whales at subantarctic Marion Island (46°54′S, 37°45′E) to estimate the abundance, survival and growth rate of this population. Demographic parameters were estimated using multistate capture recapture models, and Pradel Survival‐Lambda and POPAN single‐state models implemented in the program MARK. Annual survival probability (0.98 [95% CI: 0.96–0.99]) was constant over time, and no important differences between sexes and age‐classes (calves, juveniles, adults) were found. This estimate of survival suggests a life expectancy of approximately 48 years. Realised mean population growth rate (λ) was 1.012 (0.987–1.037) with an estimated population size of 54 (54–60) individuals and a mean calving rate of 0.13 (0.06–0.20) calves born per year per reproductive female. The survival and reproduction rates of killer whales at Marion Island are similar to those of killer whale populations in the eastern North Pacific, Norway and Îles Crozet. However, subtle differences in survival and reproduction rates are present. These are likely the result of local differences in resource abundances, historical impacts on social structure and/or stressors. Also, the presence and scale of fisheries (legal and illegal) in the area may provide opportunities for direct interactions with fishing activities impacting survival and reproduction rates.

Sea ice predicts long-term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range-wide multiscale analysis.

Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range-wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., "prevailing" environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year-to-year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year-to-year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short-term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short- and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.

A dynamic energy budget–integral projection model (DEB-IPM) to predict population-level dynamics based on individual data: a case study using the small and rapidly reproducing species Engraulis japonicus — RETRACTED

The coupling of a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model with an integral projection model (IPM; i.e. generating a DEB-IPM) is a promising new method to predict the population-level dynamics of species based on individuals. In a single framework, the DEB component provides links to the individual-level physiological processes, and the IPM component provides an alternative way to investigate ecological changes in quantitative life history characteristics and population dynamics. In this paper we present a DEB-IPM to analyse a Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) population in Chinese seas. The coupled model describes the dynamics of a population of individuals, where each individual follows an energy budget. Primary model parameters (e.g. energy conductance, ὺ; allocation coefficient, κ; and volume-specific somatic maintenance, [ṗM]) were estimated. The mean population growth rate (rp) was calculated to be 3.4year–1. The predicted demographic rates (e.g. growth, survival and reproduction) were well within observed ranges, and fit within average recorded values, and captured known seasonal trends. DEB-IPMs could be a useful tool to capture the dynamics of biodiversity amidst global environmental changes.

Possible effects of ingested lead gunshot on populations of ducks wintering in the UK

Although the use of lead ammunition for shooting wildfowl and/or over listed wetlands in the UK has been banned, c. 70% of ducks shot in England (the only UK country with compliance monitoring) are still shot with lead and the proportion of ducks found dead with signs of lead poisoning from ingested gunshot has not declined significantly since the ban. However, there is little quantitative evidence of the impacts of additional mortality from lead poisoning on duck populations. For the eight duck species that winter in freshwater habitats in the UK, we found that inter‐specific variation in mean population growth rate during the period 1990/1991 to 2013/2014 was significantly negatively correlated with two independent measures of the prevalence of ingested lead gunshot in the UK and Europe. This relationship was found for a wide range of different periods over which population growth was estimated, and also for annual growth rates in the period 1966/1967 to 2013/2014, derived from smoothed population trajectories. These findings support the hypothesis that ingested lead gunshot might affect population trend. An alternative hypothesis, that migratory short‐stopping driven by climate change affected trends in numbers of ducks wintering in the UK, was not supported by simple or partial correlation results. The possible impact of ingested lead gunshot on the Common Pochard Aythya ferina, a species listed as globally threatened, is of special concern.

Demography of an apex predator at the edge of its range: impacts of changing sea ice on polar bears in Hudson Bay.

Changes in the abundance and distribution of wildlife populations are common consequences of historic and contemporary climate change. Some Arctic marine mammals, such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), may be particularly vulnerable to such changes due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We evaluated the impacts of environmental variation on demographic rates for the Western Hudson Bay (WH), polar bear subpopulation from 1984 to 2011 using live-recapture and dead-recovery data in a Bayesian implementation of multistate capture-recapture models. We found that survival of female polar bears was related to the annual timing of sea ice break-up and formation. Using estimated vital rates (e.g., survival and reproduction) in matrix projection models, we calculated the growth rate of the WH subpopulation and projected population responses under different environmental scenarios while accounting for parametric uncertainty, temporal variation, and demographic stochasticity. Our analysis suggested a long-term decline in the number of bears from 1185 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]=993-1411) in 1987 to 806 (95% BCI=653-984) in 2011. In the last 10yr of the study, the number of bears appeared stable due to temporary stability in sea ice conditions (mean population growth rate for the period 2001-2010=1.02, 95% BCI=0.98-1.06). Looking forward, we estimated long-term growth rates for the WH subpopulation of ~1.02 (95% BCI=1.00-1.05) and 0.97 (95% BCI=0.92-1.01) under hypothetical high and low sea ice conditions, respectively. Our findings support previous evidence for a demographic linkage between sea ice conditions and polar bear population dynamics. Furthermore, we present a robust framework for sensitivity analysis with respect to continued climate change (e.g., to inform scenario planning) and for evaluating the combined effects of climate change and management actions on the status of wildlife populations.

Biological trait analysis and stability of lambda-cyhalothrin resistance in the house fly, Musca domestica L. (Diptera: Muscidae).

House flies, Musca domestica L., (Diptera: Muscidae), are pests of poultry and have the ability to develop resistance to insecticides. To design a strategy for resistance management, life history traits based on laboratory observations were established for lambda-cyhalothrin-resistant, susceptible and reciprocal crosses of M. domestica strains. Bioassay results showed that the lambda-cyhalothrin-selected strain developed a resistance ratio of 98.34 compared to its susceptible strain. The lambda-cyhalothrin-selected strain had a relative fitness of 0.26 and lower fecundity, hatchability, lower number of next generation larvae, and net reproductive rate compared with its susceptible strain. Mean population growth rates, such as intrinsic rate of population increase, and biotic potential were lower for the lambda-cyhalothrin-selected strain compared to its susceptible strain. Resistance to lambda-cyhalothrin, indoxacarb, and abamectin was unstable while resistance to bifenthrin and methomyl was stable in the lambda-cyhalothrin-selected strain of M. domestica. Development of resistance can cost considerable fitness for the lambda-cyhalothrin-selected strain. The present study provided useful information for making potential management strategies to delay resistance development in M. domestica.

Life history and dynamics of a platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) population: four decades of mark-recapture surveys.

Knowledge of the life-history and population dynamics of Australia’s iconic and evolutionarily distinct platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) remains poor. We marked-recaptured 812 unique platypuses (total 1,622 captures), over four decades (1973–2014) in the Shoalhaven River, Australia. Strong sex-age differences were observed in life-history, including morphology and longevity. Apparent survival of adult females (Φ = 0.76) were higher than adult males (Φ = 0.57), as in juveniles: females Φ = 0.27, males Φ = 0.13. Females were highly likely to remain in the same pool (adult: P = 0.85, juvenile: P = 0.88), while residency rates were lower for males (adult: P = 0.74, juvenile: P = 0.46). We combined survival, movement and life-histories to develop population viability models and test the impact of a range of life-history parameters. While using estimated apparent survival produced unviable populations (mean population growth rate r = −0.23, extinction within 20 years), considering residency rates to adjust survival estimates, indicated more stable populations (r = 0.004, p = 0.04 of 100-year extinction). Further sensitivity analyses highlighted adult female survival and overall success of dispersal as most affecting viability. Findings provide robust life-history and viability estimates for a difficult study species. These could support developing large-scale population dynamics models required to underpin a much needed national risk assessment for the platypus, already declining in parts of its current distribution.

A combined inverse method and multivariate approach for exploring population trends of Florida manatees

AbstractGiven the expense and time required to monitor marine mammal populations effectively, approaches that fully exploit the resulting data certainly are warranted. We employed a two‐step modeling approach to estimate key demographic parameters, including immigration, from aerial surveys of manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in the Northwest management unit of Florida. Abundances of adults and calves were predicted by multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) models, after accounting for heterogeneous detection rates caused by variable environmental conditions. The resulting predictions were incorporated into a stage‐structured, deterministic model that used an inverse method to estimate parameters with and without immigration. The model without immigration estimated mean survival probabilities of 0.966, 0.923, and 0.794 for adults, subadults and calves, respectively, with a per capita reproductive rate of 0.135. These parameter estimates yielded an overall mean population growth rate of approximately 1.037, which is comparable to rates from mark‐recapture studies. When we added an immigration term that accounted for the greater slope in adult counts since 1999, as identified by the MARS model, the estimated per capita reproductive rate was 0.122, with survival probabilities for adults, subadults and calves of 0.926, 0.920, and 0.833, respectively. These rates were coupled with an estimated mean winter immigration rate corresponding to roughly 5.2% of the adult and subadult population. In this latter scenario, the number of manatees in the core population of the Northwest management unit was predicted to remain constant, with a population growth rate near one, and additional manatees counted during aerial surveys were deemed to be immigrants. While further studies could certainly expound on the potential effects of migrants on population indices, we present this first published immigration estimate for wintering manatees in northwest Florida.

Mechanism, stability and fitness cost of resistance to pyriproxyfen in the house fly, Musca domestica L. (Diptera: Muscidae)

Pyriproxyfen, a bio-rational insecticide, used worldwide for the management of many insect pests including the house fly, Musca domestica. To devise a retrospective resistance management strategy, biological parameters of pyriproxyfen resistant (Pyri-SEL), unselected (UNSEL), Cross1 and Cross2M. domestica strains were studied in the laboratory. Additionally, the stability and mechanism of resistance was also investigated. After 30 generations of pyriproxyfen selection, a field-collected strain developed 206-fold resistance compared with susceptible strain. Synergists such as piperonyl butoxide and S,S,S-tributylphosphorotrithioate did not alter the LC50 values, suggesting another cause of target site resistance to pyriproxyfen in the Pyri-SEL strain. The resistance to all tested insecticides was unstable in Pyri-SEL strain. The relative fitness of 0.51 with lower fecundity, hatchability, lower number of next generation larvae, reduced mean population growth rate and net reproductive rate were observed in the Pyri-SEL strain compared with the UNSEL strain. The cost of fitness associated with pyriproxyfen resistance was evident in Pyri-SEL strain. The present study provides useful information for making pro-active resistance management strategies to delay resistance development.

Managing wolves (Canis lupus) to recover threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Alberta

Across Canada, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788)) populations are declining because of human-induced changes to food webs that are resulting in apparent competition-induced increases in predator-caused caribou mortality. We tested the hypothesis that wolf (Canis lupus L., 1758) population reduction could reverse declines in a woodland caribou population following a BACI (before-after-control-impact) design conducted over a 12-year period in west-central Alberta, Canada. We monitored annual survival for 172 adult female caribou and calf recruitment from 2000 through 2012 and conducted a provincial government delivered wolf population reduction program annually during the winters of 2005–2006 to 2012 (inclusive) in an area centered on the Little Smoky range. Wolf removal translated to a 4.6% increase in mean population growth rate of the Little Smoky population mostly through improvements in calf recruitment. In contrast, the Red Rock Prairie Creek control population exhibited a 4.7% decline. Although the wolf population reduction program appeared to stabilize the Little Smoky population, it did not lead to population increase, however, with λ remaining approximately equal to 1. Therefore, we recommend, if required, predation management be combined with effective habitat conservation and long-term planning to effect the recovery of species, such as woodland caribou, which are declining as a result of habitat-mediated apparent competition.

Cross-resistance, stability, and fitness cost of resistance to imidacloprid in Musca domestica L., (Diptera: Muscidae).

Imidacloprid, a neonicotinoid insecticide, has been used frequently for the management of Musca domestica L., (Diptera: Muscidae) worldwide. To design the strategy for resistance management, life history traits were established for imidacloprid-resistant, susceptible counterpart, and reciprocal crosses M. domestica strains based on laboratory observations. Bioassay results showed that the imidacloprid-selected strain developed a resistance ratio of 106-fold to imidacloprid, 19-fold to nitenpyram, 29-fold to chlorpyrifos, and 3.8-fold to cypermethrin compared to that of the susceptible counterpart strain. The imidacloprid-selected strain showed very low cross-resistance against nitenpyram and cypermethrin and a lack of cross-resistance to chlorpyrifos. Resistance to imidacloprid, nitenpyram, and chlorpyrifos was unstable, while resistance to cypermethrin was stable in Imida-SEL strain of M. domestica. The imidacloprid-selected strain had a relative fitness of 0.61 and lower fecundity, hatchability, number of next-generation larvae, and net reproductive rate compared with the susceptible counterpart strain. Mean population growth rates, such as intrinsic rate of population increase and biotic potential, were lower for the imidacloprid-selected strain compared with the susceptible counterpart strain. Development of resistance can cost considerable fitness for the imidacloprid-selected strain. The present study provided useful information for making potential management strategies to overcome development of resistance.

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Linking indices for biodiversity monitoring to extinction risk theory.

Biodiversity indices often combine data from different species when used in monitoring programs. Heuristic properties can suggest preferred indices, but we lack objective ways to discriminate between indices with similar heuristics. Biodiversity indices can be evaluated by determining how well they reflect management objectives that a monitoring program aims to support. For example, the Convention on Biological Diversity requires reporting about extinction rates, so simple indices that reflect extinction risk would be valuable. We developed 3 biodiversity indices that are based on simple models of population viability that relate extinction risk to abundance. We based the first index on the geometric mean abundance of species and the second on a more general power mean. In a third index, we integrated the geometric mean abundance and trend. These indices require the same data as previous indices, but they also relate directly to extinction risk. Field data for butterflies and woodland plants and experimental studies of protozoan communities show that the indices correlate with local extinction rates. Applying the index based on the geometric mean to global data on changes in avian abundance suggested that the average extinction probability of birds has increased approximately 1% from 1970 to 2009.Conectando Índices para el Monitoreo de la Biodiversidad con la Teoría de Riesgo de ExtinciónResumenLos índices de biodiversidad combinan frecuentemente los datos de diferentes especies cuando se usan en los programas de monitoreo. Las propiedades heurísticas pueden sugerir índices preferidos, pero carecemos de medios objetivos para discriminar a los índices con propiedades heurísticas similares. Los índices de biodiversidad pueden evaluarse al determinar qué tan bien reflejan los objetivos de manejo que un programa de monitoreo busca apoyar. Por ejemplo, la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica requiere reportar las tasas de extinción, así que los índices que reflejan el riesgo de extinción serían valiosos. Desarrollamos 3 índices de biodiversidad que se basan en modelos sencillos de viabilidad de población y que relacionan el riesgo de extinción con la abundancia. Basamos el primer índice en la media geométrica de la abundancia de especies, y el segundo en una media de poder más general. En el tercer índice integramos la media geométrica y la tendencia. Estos índices requieren los mismos datos que índices previos, pero también se relacionan directamente con el riesgo de extinción. La información de campo sobre mariposas y plantas de bosque, y los estudios experimentales de comunidades protozoarias, muestran que los índices se correlacionan con las tasas locales de extinción. Al aplicar el índice basado en la media geométrica sobre los datos globales de los cambios en la abundancia de aves, sugirió que la probabilidad de extinción promedio de aves ha incrementado aproximadamente 1% desde 1970 hasta 2009.Palabras ClaveÍndice de biodiversidad, media geométrica, medida de la biodiversidad, riesgo de extinción

Effect of emamectin benzoate on life history traits and relative fitness of Spodoptera litura (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Emamectin benzoate, a semisynthetic bioinsecticide, has been used frequently for the management of lepidopteran pests of cotton worldwide. To assess the resistance risk and design strategy for resistance management, life history traits were established for emamectin benzoate-resistant, unselected and susceptible S. litura strains based on the laboratory observations. Bioassay results showed that the emamectin benzoate-selected strain developed a resistance ratio of 911-fold compared with that of the susceptible strain. The emamectin-selected strain had a relative fitness of 0.37 and lower prepupal and pupal weights, prolonged larval duration and development time, lower fecundity and hatchability compared with the susceptible strain. Mean population growth rates, such as intrinsic rate of population increase and biotic potential, were lower for the emamectin-selected strain compared with the susceptible strain. Development of resistance can cost considerable fitness for the emamectin-selected strain. The present study provided useful information for determining potential management strategies to overcome development of resistance.