Maximum Summer Temperatures Research Articles

Spatiotemporal Change of Net Primary Productivity and Its Response to Climate Change in Temperate Grasslands of China.

The temperate grasslands in China play a vital part in regulating regional carbon cycle and climate change. Net primary productivity (NPP) is a crucial index that reflects ecological function of plants and the carbon sequestration capacity of grassland ecosystem. Climate change can affect NPP by changing vegetation growth, but the effects of climate change on the NPP of China’s temperate grasslands remain unclear. Based on MODIS data and monthly climate data during 2000–2020, this study explored the spatiotemporal changes in grassland NPP and its response to climate change in temperate grasslands of China. We found that the annual NPP over the entire China’s temperate grasslands increased significantly by 4.0 gC/m2/year from 2000 to 2020. The annual NPP showed increasing trends for all the different grassland vegetation types, with the smallest increase for temperate desert steppe (2.2 gC/m2/year) and the largest increase for temperate meadow (5.4 gC/m2/year). The correlation results showed that increased annual precipitation had a positive relationship with the NPP of temperate grasslands. Increased summer and autumn precipitation could increase grassland NPP, particularly for the temperate meadow. With regard to the effects of temperatures, increased temperature, particularly the summer maximum temperature, could decrease annual NPP. However, increased spring minimum temperature could increase the NPP of temperate desert steppe. In addition, this study found, for the first time, an asymmetric relationship between summer nighttime and daytime warming and the NPP of temperate meadow. Specifically, nighttime warming can increase NPP, while daytime warming can reduce NPP in temperate meadow. Our results highlight the importance of including seasonal climate conditions in assessing the vegetation productivity for different grassland types of temperate grasslands and predicting the influences of future climate change on temperate grassland ecosystems.

National‐scale predictions of plant assemblages via community distribution models: Leveraging published data to guide future surveys

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to create maps of expected species incidence, often using citizen science (CS) occurrence data as inputs. Environmental policy is informed by knowledge of community distributions, but there have been fewer attempts to utilise the potential of community distribution models (CDMs) to predict these. Many countries have vegetation community classification systems which include phytosociological information on individual species. Within Great Britain, the National Vegetation Classification (NVC) is the primary standard for vegetation communities, and while maps have been produced at regional scales, cost‐effective techniques are required for national scales. Published NVC occurrence records of 22 upland NVC communities in England and Wales were used as observed occurrences (presence‐only data). Predictors for the CDMs were enhanced vegetation index (EVI), elevation, slope, aspect, temperature and rainfall. Five modelling methods were investigated: generalised linear models (GLMs), support vector machines (SVMs), random forests (RFs), maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and maximum likelihood (MaxLike). Model quality was assessed via bootstrapping via area under the curve (AUC), true skill statistic (TSS) and Kappa index. There were only small differences in the accuracy of the models (median TSS model accuracy 0.742; range 0.280 to 0.873) with RF models the best overall CDM method. Across all NVC communities, summer and winter maximum temperatures and annual rainfall were the most important predictor variables. NVCs with spatially disjunct distributions in both lowlands and uplands, or that responded to localised management or environmental conditions, were poorly predicted. Synthesis and applications. Vegetation communities can be reliably predicted at large spatial scales using CDMs from extant datasets. Management practitioners can use community‐level predictions to design targeted field surveys for individual species typically associated with specific communities. Most existing CS survey schemes focus on species rather than communities. Hence future development of new CS schemes similar to the National Plant Monitoring Scheme (NPMS), that aligns with the NVC, will enable CS data to generate up‐to‐date maps of both communities and species.

Extreme heat events in the Iberia Peninsula from extreme value mixture modeling of ERA5-Land air temperature

Extreme summer temperatures in the Iberia Peninsula are analyzed from ERA5-Land reanalysis data based on an extreme value mixture model combining a Normal distribution for the bulk distribution (i.e. for the non-extreme values) and a Generalized Pareto Distribution for the extremes in the upper tail. This approach allows to treat the threshold of temperature exceedances as being one of model parameters rather than fixed a priori, enabling to take into account its corresponding uncertainty. Extreme value mixture models are estimated individually for each location, and the analysis is performed separately for two distinct periods, namely from 1981 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2019, respectively. The results show significant differences in the extreme value mixture models for the two periods, and in their corresponding 20-year return levels. The mean of the bulk distribution of summer maximum temperature increases significantly, particularly in Eastern Iberia. The largest differences in the tails of the data distribution between the two periods occur in the eastern Mediterranean area, and are characterized by a significant increase in the threshold for temperature exceedances and in their corresponding return levels.

A model of cross-sectional growth of Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation in Hunan province with climate effects

Objective: The influence of climate on forest stands cannot be ignored, but most of the previous forest stand growth models were constructed under the presumption of invariant climate and could not estimate the stand growth under climate change. The model was constructed to provide a theoretical basis for forest operators to take reasonable management measures for fir under the influence of climate. Methods: Based on the survey data of 638 cedar plantation plots in Hunan Province, the optimal base model was selected from four biologically significant alternative stand basal area models, and the significant climate factors without serious covariance were selected by multiple stepwise regression analysis. The optimal form of random effects was determined, and then a model with climatic effects was constructed for the cross-sectional growth of fir plantations. Results: Richards formula is the optimal form of the basic model of stand basal area growth. The coefficient of adjustment was 0.8355; the average summer maximum temperature and the water vapor loss in Hargreaves climate affected the maximum and rate of fir stand stand growth respectively, and were negatively correlated with the stand growth. The adjusted coefficient of determination of the fir stand area break model with climate effects was 0.8921, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 3.0792, and the mean relative error absolute value (MARE) was 9.9011; compared with the optimal base model, improved by 6.77%, RMSE decreased by 19.04%, and MARE decreased by 15.95%. Conclusion: The construction of the stand cross-sectional area model with climate effects indicates that climate has a significant influence on stand growth, which supports the rationality of considering climate factors in the growth model, and it is important for the regional stand growth harvest and management of cedar while improving the accuracy and applicability of the model.

Climate and ungulate browsing impair regeneration dynamics in spruce-fir-beech forests in the French Alps

Key messageDifferent components of water balance and temperature reduce density and height growth of saplings of Picea abies (L.) H. Karst (Norway spruce), Abies alba Mill. (silver fir) and Fagus sylvatica L. (European beech) in mixed uneven-aged forests in the French Alps and Jura mountains. Ungulate browsing is an additional pressure on fir and beech that could jeopardise the renewal of these species in the future.ContextThe uncertainty in tree recruitment rates raises questions about the factors affecting regeneration processes in forests. Factors such as climate, light, competition and ungulate browsing pressure may play an important role in determining regeneration, forest structures and thus future forest composition.AimsThe objective of this study was to quantify sapling densities and height increments of spruce, fir and beech and to identify dominant environmental variables influencing them in mixed uneven-aged forests in the French Alps and Jura mountains.MethodsSapling height increment and density were recorded in 152 plots, and non-linear mixed models were obtained to establish relations between them and environmental factors known to affect regeneration, namely altitude, slope, aspect, canopy openness, soil characteristics, temperature, precipitation and ungulate browsing.ResultsRegeneration density, varying from 0 to 7 saplings per m 2, decreased with sapling height and was also negatively affected for spruce by PET, but positively for fir by precipitation and for beech by mean annual soil water content. Height increment reached up to 50 cm annually, increasing with sapling height and canopy openness and decreasing under high maximum summer temperatures for spruce and beech. The statistical effect of different environmental variables varied slightly among species but trends were quite similar. Additionally, ungulate browsing was high, with fir being the most intensely browsed, followed closely by beech, while spruce was rarely browsed.ConclusionsAll these results suggest that more temperature warming and a decrease in water availability could negatively impact sapling growth and density in the three species, with possible reduction of forest renewal fluxes. The observed increase of ungulate populations leading to increased browsing could be particularly detrimental to fir saplings.

Daytime and nighttime temperatures exert different effects on vegetation net primary productivity of marshes in the western Songnen Plain

The western Songnen Plain has a large area of marshes that are able to modulate the regional carbon cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) is an important ecological indicator of carbon storage within the marsh ecosystems. Although climate change could have significantly changed marsh vegetation NPP during the past decades, the spatiotemporal variation in marsh vegetation NPP and how climate change affects marsh vegetation NPP remain unclear in the western Songnen Plain. In this paper, we assessed the spatiotemporal variation in the NPP of marshes at the western Songnen Plain and evaluated its response to climate change from 2000 to 2020. The NPP of marshes over the western Songnen Plain increased significantly at a rate of 5.69 g C/m2/a during 2000 to 2020, with an average value of about 273.62 g C/m2/a. The largest increase of the NPP of marshes was mainly distributed in the northwest part of the Songnen Plain. Correlation analysis results showed that the increased precipitation in summer and autumn could enhance the NPP of marsh vegetation. By contrast, the increase of mean temperature in summer reduced the NPP of marshes. In addition, we first found the asymmetric impacts of summer minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) on marsh vegetation NPP. Notably, the increase in summer Tmax could significantly reduce NPP, while the increase in Tmin could increase NPP. Under the background of global asymmetric warming of daytime and nighttime temperatures, more attention should be paid to the different effects of Tmax and Tmin on marsh NPP in the western Sonegnen Plain. The findings of this study can provide theoretical guidance for ecological protection and the adaptive management of marsh vegetation at the western Songnen Plain.

Multivariate Bias‐Correction of High‐Resolution Regional Climate Change Simulations for West Africa: Performance and Climate Change Implications

AbstractA multivariate bias correction based on N‐dimensional probability density function transform (MBCn) technique is applied to four different high‐resolution regional climate change simulations and key meteorological variables, namely precipitation, mean near‐surface air temperature, near‐surface maximum air temperature, near‐surface minimum air temperature, surface downwelling solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed. The impact of bias‐correction on the historical (1980–2005) period, the inter‐variable relationships, and the measures of spatio‐temporal consistency are investigated. The focus is on the discrepancies between the original and the bias‐corrected results over five agro‐ecological zones. We also evaluate relevant indices for agricultural applications such as climate extreme indices, under current and future (2020–2050) climate change conditions based on the RCP4.5. Results show that MBCn successfully corrects the seasonal biases in spatial patterns and intensities for all variables, their intervariable correlation, and the distributions of most of the analyzed variables. Relatively large bias reductions during the historical period give indication of possible benefits of MBCn when applied to future scenarios. Although the four regional climate models do not agree on the same positive/negative sign of the change of the seven climate variables for all grid points, the model ensemble mean shows a statistically significant change in rainfall, relative humidity in the Northern zone and wind speed in the Coastal zone of West Africa and increasing maximum summer temperature up to 2°C in the Sahara.

Tradeoffs between leaf cooling and hydraulic safety in a dominant arid land riparian tree species.

Leaf carbon gain optimization in hot environments requires balancing leaf thermoregulation with avoiding excessive water loss via transpiration and hydraulic failure. The tradeoffs between leaf thermoregulation and transpirational water loss can determine the ecological consequences of heat waves that are increasing in frequency and intensity. We evaluated leaf thermoregulation strategies in warm-(>40°C maximum summer temperature) and cool-adapted (<40°C maximum summer temperature) genotypes of the foundation tree species, Populus fremontii, using a common garden near the mid-elevational point of its distribution. We measured leaf temperatures and assessed three modes of leaf thermoregulation: leaf morphology, midday canopy stomatal conductance and stomatal sensitivity to vapour pressure deficit. Data were used to parameterize a leaf energy balance model to estimate contrasts in midday leaf temperature in warm- and cool-adapted genotypes. Warm-adapted genotypes had 39% smaller leaves and 38% higher midday stomatal conductance, reflecting a 3.8°C cooler mean leaf temperature than cool-adapted genotypes. Leaf temperatures modelled over the warmest months were on average 1.1°C cooler in warm- relative to cool-adapted genotypes. Results show that plants adapted to warm environments are predisposed to tightly regulate leaf temperatures during heat waves, potentially at an increased risk of hydraulic failure.

Projections of changes in maximum air temperature and hot days in Poland

AbstractThe aim of the study was to determine changes in maximum air temperature (Tmax) in summer, and occurrence of hot days in the period 1966–2020, as well as to forecast the direction and rate of changes in near and far future. The research showed an increase in Tmax in the summer season. In the analysed period, the changes intensified over the last 20 years, as suggested by, among others, the occurrence of the 10 warmest years in the study period, mostly after 2000. According to model projections, an increase in Tmax will be recorded both in the near and far future. The consequence of the current increase in Tmax has been an increase in the frequency of hot days. Further increase in the number of hot days in Poland is projected for the upcoming decades. The smallest changes are projected for areas with most intensive changes in Tmax, and the largest in areas with moderate changes in the Tmax.

Thermal conductivity contrast effect of organic soils and its environmental implications

Thermal conduction control is important for retarding permafrost degradation and mitigating of frost geohazards. Similar to a thermodiode, high thermal conductivity contrast (HTCC) materials can serve as good thermal insulators. A preferred HTCC material for ground cooling is larger in thermal resistance in summer and smaller in winter. Because of contrasting thermal conductivity under frozen and thawed states, organic soil is blessed with such a property. This study quantified and reported the HTCC effects on a range of soil organic matter concentrations (SOMC) and soil moisture saturation degree (SMSD). Using the COMSOL, influences of different SOMC and SMSD on ground temperatures were simulated and compared with laboratory-measured properties. Simulation results demonstrated that with constant SMSD at 20% throughout the year, the thermal insulation effect was strengthened with increasing SOMC. A better insulating effect was judged by lower annual amplitudes and smaller depths of zero annual amplitude of ground temperatures. In case of low SMSD in summer (20%) and high SMSD in winter (60–80%), the HTCC effect of soil is enhanced with increasing SOMC. This enhancement was evidenced by increased thermal offsets and decreased maximum summer and average near-surface soil temperatures. With constant SOMC and increasing SMSD, the rising HTCC effect gradually cools the ground. An integral analysis indicates that the higher the SOMC and SMSD in winter, the larger the thermal offset and the lower the ground temperature, i.e., the greater the HTCC effect of organic soil. This study may provide geocryological bases for engineering and environmental applications in cold regions.

Simulation of mean monthly maximum temperature in summer of northern region, Thailand using INMCM4.0 model

Project aims to simulate Mean Monthly Maximum Temperature (Tasmax) in summer of Northern, Thailand (2020-2030) using INMCM4.0 Model. Observation data of historical period were gathered from 14 Meteorological Department of Thailand, used to compare to Simulation data of same period to verify the model. Quantile Mapping (QM) was the best statistical downscaling method to predict future Tasmax with the lowest of %MPAE and MAE at 5.29% and ?1.85 oC. Tasmax values were presented in form of map by kriging method then trend changes were calculated by Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen?s slope. The results illustrated that the highest Tasmax was found around left-bottom of the region then fading in the next area to the top. Tasmax was gradually rising from February to May with the most range in hot (35.0 - 39.9?C) and very hot range (&gt;40?C). Moreover, trend analysis indicated that the trend of February, March, April, and summer period were fluctuated and obviously increased at +0.111, +0.130, +0.121, and +0.063?C per year while it was at -0.007?C per year for May with the lowest and highest Tasmax values at 28.8 and 41.5?C. This can confirm that the region would have global warming issues in the future.

Macroinvertebrate and diatom community responses to thermal alterations below water supply reservoirs

AbstractRiver impoundments have transformed river ecosystems globally due to the modification of various abiotic and biotic factors. This study provides rare evidence quantifying how water supply reservoirs alter water temperature regimes and its effects on macroinvertebrate and diatom communities over a 4‐year period. We obtained near‐continuous water temperature measurements upstream and downstream of three reservoirs and analysed thermal variables in association with macroinvertebrate and diatom community indices (including taxonomic richness, proportion of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera taxa [%EPT] and diatom ecological guilds). Reservoirs typically decreased downstream thermal variability, with reduced summer temperatures and increased winter temperatures, and a delayed timing of annual temperature extremes. Marked differences in thermal regime modifications between reservoirs were observed, including evidence of inter‐annual variation associated with inter‐basin water transfers downstream of one reservoir. Biomonitoring indices showed associations with thermal indices that differed between site types (regulated versus non‐regulated) and seasons (spring vs. autumn). Various macroinvertebrate and diatom indices capturing community diversity elements and sensitivities to different environmental pressures were associated with higher maximum summer temperatures and lower minimum winter temperatures, suggesting ecological effects of reduced thermal variation downstream of reservoirs. Different ecological responses to thermal indices were observed between seasons, likely due to organism life‐cycle effects and intra‐annual thermal variations. Contrasting macroinvertebrate and diatom communities were observed between regulated and non‐regulated sites, which may be driven by differences in the thermal regime and other abiotic factors at regulated sites, including nutrient, sediment and flow regimes. Long‐term continuous water temperature monitoring of both multiple regulated and non‐regulated river systems is necessary to better understand the environmental and ecological effects of river impoundments. Given the extent to which river impoundment has modified stream temperatures globally, the inclusion of thermal regime data in environmental flow studies alongside hydrological information may guide the implementation of mitigation measures on impounded waterbodies.

Yield and qualitative and biochemical characteristics of saffron (Crocus sativus L.) cultivated in different soil, water, and climate conditions

Saffron is highly valued for its unique aroma, taste, color, and medicinal properties. Iran is one of the most important saffron-producing countries. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of climatic and environmental characteristics of six sites (Shirvan, Faruj, Zavareh, Torbat-e Heydarieh, Ghayen, and Birjand) on the yield and qualitative, and biochemical characteristics of saffron. The studied sites were considered as treatments. The obtained data were analyzed based on a nested design, where the village within the site was considered an experimental error, and the farm within the village within each site was considered a sampling error. The Torbat-e Heydarieh treatment with altitudes of ~1323.3 m produced the maximum saffron flower yield (0.83 g m2), stigma yield (0.098 g m2), safranal content (15.8%), picrocrocin content (30.6%), and crocins content (69.3%). Evidently that the low maximum summer temperature in the area is one of the reasons for its superiority. The correlation analysis between traits shows that the maximum summer temperature had a significant negative correlation with saffron flower yield, stigma yield, and picrocrocin and crocin content. Results showed the highest total flavonoid and phenol content and DPPH activity related to Shirvan and Faruj. Although the results showed that selenium could increase the quantitative and qualitative yield of saffron, this requires further studies to confirm it. Based on the findings, it is concluded that I) qualitative and quantitative characteristics of saffron are strongly controlled by the environmental and climatic conditions and II) Razavi Khorasan province had a significant advantage in terms of flower and stigma yield and safranal, picrocrocin and crocin content of saffron and North Khorasan province in terms of biochemical characteristics.

Canicular summer 2021 in south-west Romania in the context of climate change.

The particularly hot summer of 2021 occurred after the third Mediterranean winter registered in Oltenia. Although the winter was warm, being the third warmest winter in descending order of the seasonal average, the spring of 2021 was cold not only in Oltenia, even in the Northern Hemisphere being considered one of the coldest springs. This weather remained until 15.VI, then on 22.VI began the first heat wave of summer 2021. During the summer of 2021 there were 6 heat waves that had several peaks. (19) with intensities frequently exceeding 38,0°C. The summer maximum temperature was 41.1°C recorded on 1.VIII.2021 in Calafat. The drought and heat wave were intense, and the total duration of the heat waves was 50 days (54.3% of summer days). The particularly hot summer of 2021 was recorded in atypical conditions with neutral Southern Oscillation (ENSO). All spring crops were severely affected. The paper analyses the climatic conditions in the summer of 2021 in Oltenia and climate variability.

Temperature and relative humidity trends in the northernmost region of South Africa, 1950–2016

The northernmost Limpopo Province is located in one of the warmest regions of South Africa, where the agricultural sector is prone to heat stress. The aim of this study was to explore air temperature and relative humidity trends for the region, which have implications for agricultural adaptation and management (amongst other sectors). In particular, we investigated seasonal, annual and decadal scale air temperature and relative humidity changes for the period 1950–2016. Positive temperature trends were recorded for this period, averaging +0.02 °C/year, with the strongest changes observed in mean maximum summer temperatures (+0.03 °C/year). Interannual temperature variability also increased over time, especially for the period 2010–2016, which presents probability densities of &lt;50% for minimum temperatures. Positive relative humidity trends (+0.06%/year) were also recorded for the period 1980–2016, but proved to be the least predictable weather parameter, with probability densities of &lt;0.5% across seasons for the study period. Considering the substantial interannual variability in temperature and relative humidity, there is clear increased risk for the agricultural sector, particularly for small-scale farmers who generally have limited capacity to adapt. Climate science focusing on the southern African region should continue to establish the impact of climate change and variability on specific small-scale farming systems and enterprises, with recommendations for strategic adaptation based on up-to-date evidence.Significance: Heat indices have increased, and variability in temperature and relative humidity has substantially increased over recent decades. Changes in air temperature and relative humidity have direct and/or indirect negative effects on sectors such as agriculture, leading to reduced productivity. The small-scale farming sector, which contributes significantly to national food security in developing countries, is the production system most exposed and vulnerable to observed changes/extremes in temperature and relative humidity. There is an urgent need to build capacity of small-scale farmers for appropriate adaptation to observed changes in climate based on up-to-date evidence.

Performance of RegCM4.5 in Simulating the Regional Climate of Western Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China

The western Tianshan Mountains region in China has a complex topography where basins, mountains and glaciers co-exist. It is of great significance to study the sensitivity of meteorological factors in this region to different parameterization schemes of climate models. In this paper, the regional climate model RegCM4.5 is used to simulate the meteorological factor (mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation and wind speed) occurring in the western Tianshan Mountains region from 2012 to 2016, so as to investigate the effects of different cumulus convective schemes (Grell, Tiedtke and Emanuel), including land cumulus convective schemes (LCCs) and ocean convective schemes (OCCs) on annual and seasonal simulations of meteorological factor by using the schemes of RUN1 (Grell for LCC and Tiedtke for OCC), RUN2 (Tiedtke for LCC and Emanuel for OCC), RUN3 (Grell for LCC and Emanuel for OCC) and ENS (the ensemble of RUN1, RUN2 and RUN3). The results show that the simulations of annual and seasonal meteorological factors are not significantly sensitive to the combination of LCCs and OCCs. In the annual simulations, RUN2 scheme has the best simulation performance for the maximum, average and minimum temperatures. However, other schemes of precipitation simulation outperform RUN2 scheme, and there is no difference among the four schemes for wind speed simulation. In the seasonal simulations, RUN2 scheme still performs well in the simulation of the average, maximum and minimum temperatures for four seasons, except for the simulation of the average temperature in spring and summer. For the simulation of the maximum temperature in summer, RUN2 scheme performs the same as ENS. For the simulation of other seasons, different meteorological factors have different performances in four seasons. Overall, the results show that different combinations of cumulus convection schemes can improve the simulation performance of meteorological factors in the western Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang.

Thermal performance of ETICS, energy activated with PCM and PV

Installing photo-voltaic (PV) panels on building façades is a growing tendency that helps to achieve both newly built and renovated nearly zero energy buildings. A novel approach to building active facades is to use a phase change material (PCM) behind the flexible PV. The PCM stabilises the PV’s temperature which can lead to an increase in energy production and cuts down the temperature peaks to avoid damage. In this study, the thermal performance of an En-ActivETICS wall was modelled in three different locations across Europe. The model was validated against on-site temperature measurements. The efficiency of the PV was calculated and an optimal PCM thickness and melting temperature were selected. The results show that annual energy production of the PV panel could increase between 2% (in Lodz) to 5% (in Madrid) using a 40mm-thick PCM. The optimal PCM melting temperatures for a certain climate should be chosen as 0 to 10 degrees below maximum air temperature in summer. The maximum peak PV temperatures could be reduced by ca. 20 K (from ∼90 to ∼70°C). Reasonable way to fix the stainless steel casing to the wall would be with four stainless steel anchor bolts – that gives 78% or 93% efficiency in case of EPS or PIR thermal insulation, respectively.

Climate Change in the Hydrometeorological Parameters of the Black and Azov Seas (1980\u20132020)

To study the nature of climate change in the hydrometeorological parameters of the Black and Azov Seas—surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST), ice cover, and sea level—under conditions of ongoing global warming, we used reanalyses and remote sensing data, as well as information from known publications of recent years. It was found that against an increase in SAT over the Black–Azov Sea region (+0.053°C/year in 1980–2020) and SST of the Black Sea (+0.052°C/year in 1982–2020), the values of these parameters in the 2000s differ significantly from those in the 1980s–1990s: the maximum average monthly summer and minimum average monthly winter temperatures have increased, as well as the number of mild winters. The average annual SST of the Black Sea, which practically did not exceed 15°C in the 1980s–early 1990s, has exceeded 16°C in most cases since 2010 (maximum 16.71°C in 2018). In the 2010s, the average monthly winter minima, with the exception of the winters of 2011/2012 and 2016/2017, did not fall below 8°С. A consequence of the increase in winter temperatures was a decrease in the ice concentration in the Sea of Azov (the trend of the mean monthly concentration is –1.2%/10 years). From about 2004–2010 in the Black Sea and since 2004 in the Sea of Azov, the tendency towards increase in their levels (on average) has been replaced by a slight decrease, so that the average positive trends for the period 1993–2020 (+0.32 ± 0.16 cm/year in the Black Sea and +0.21 ± 0.05 cm/year in the Sea of Azov) were approximately 2.5 times less than in 1993–2012. The reason for this decrease in levels (on average) in the last 10–15 years was apparently a decrease in the incoming part of the freshwater balance of both seas, which is indirectly confirmed by the observed increase in salinity of their waters.

Major environmental factors and traits of invasive alien plants determine their spatial distribution: a case study in Korea

BackgroundAs trade increases, the influx of various alien species and their spread to new regions are prevalent, making them a general problem globally. Anthropogenic activities and climate change have led to alien species becoming distributed beyond their native range. As a result, alien species can be easily found anywhere, with the density of individuals varying across locations. The prevalent distribution of alien species adversely affects invaded ecosystems; thus, strategic management plans must be established to control them effectively. To this end, this study evaluated hotspots and cold-spots in the degree of distribution of invasive alien plant species, and major environmental factors related to hot spots were identified. We analyzed 10,287 distribution points of 126 species of alien plant species collected through a national survey of alien species using the hierarchical model of species communities (HMSC) framework.ResultsThe explanatory and fourfold cross-validation predictive power of the model were 0.91 and 0.75 as area under the curve (AUC) values, respectively. Hotspots of invasive plants were found in the Seoul metropolitan area, Daegu metropolitan city, Chungcheongbuk-do Province, southwest shore, and Jeju Island. Hotspots were generally found where the highest maximum summer temperature, winter precipitation, and road density were observed. In contrast, seasonality in temperature, annual temperature range, precipitation during summer, and distance to rivers and the sea were negatively correlated to hotspots. The model showed that functional traits accounted for 55% of the variance explained by environmental factors. Species with a higher specific leaf area were found where temperature seasonality was low. Taller species were associated with a larger annual temperature range. Heavier seed mass was associated with a maximum summer temperature > 29 °C.ConclusionsThis study showed that hotspots contained 2.1 times more alien plants on average than cold-spots. Hotspots of invasive plants tended to appear under less stressful climate conditions, such as low fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. In addition, disturbance by anthropogenic factors and water flow positively affected hotspots. These results were consistent with previous reports on the ruderal and competitive strategies of invasive plants, not the stress-tolerant strategy. Our results supported that the functional traits of alien plants are closely related to the ecological strategies of plants by shaping the response of species to various environmental filters. Therefore, to control alien plants effectively, the occurrence of disturbed sites where alien plants can grow in large quantities should be minimized, and the waterfront of rivers must be managed.

Вплив змін клімату на насадження сосни звичайної: стан, проблеми, виклики

It is proved that since the beginning of the XIX century. the degradation of pine stands is enormous on all continents. In Ukraine, according to the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine, the average annual temperature since the beginning of the 20th century has increased by more than 2 °C, including 1.2 °C over the past 30 years. In recent years, the number of days with maximum summer temperatures above 35 °C and 40 °C has almost doubled in extreme weather. In most of the territory of Ukraine, there is already a tendency towards an increase in drought, increased fire hazard, recurrence of years during which plantations will experience water stress, damage by pests, as well as degradation of forest ecosystems as a whole as a result of an increase in forest areas. number and duration of hot periods. It was found that dendrochronological methods are used to study the relationship between climate change and pine radial increment. The main methods for studying radial increment are taking cores at a height of 1.3 meters from two opposite radii in order to prevent the influence of random factors on radial increment. The annual ring width is determined using dendrochronological instruments with automatic data recording. The data on the values of annual rings are processed according to the programs of the International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). To synchronize the series with the establishment of the calendar year for the formation of each annual increment, the specialized COFECHA program is used. It has been established that the growth of scots pine is limited by the humidification of the climate and the presence of sufficient moisture in the soil, however, in the presence of extreme temperatures, the negative tendency towards drying out of plantations persists.