Projections of changes in maximum air temperature and hot days in Poland

Abstract

AbstractThe aim of the study was to determine changes in maximum air temperature (Tmax) in summer, and occurrence of hot days in the period 1966–2020, as well as to forecast the direction and rate of changes in near and far future. The research showed an increase in Tmax in the summer season. In the analysed period, the changes intensified over the last 20 years, as suggested by, among others, the occurrence of the 10 warmest years in the study period, mostly after 2000. According to model projections, an increase in Tmax will be recorded both in the near and far future. The consequence of the current increase in Tmax has been an increase in the frequency of hot days. Further increase in the number of hot days in Poland is projected for the upcoming decades. The smallest changes are projected for areas with most intensive changes in Tmax, and the largest in areas with moderate changes in the Tmax.