Tephra Mass Research Articles

Scenario-based probabilistic hazard assessment for explosive events at the San Salvador volcanic complex, El Salvador

We present a scenario-based, probabilistic hazard assessment for the San Salvador volcanic complex (SSVC), a volcanic field located in the vicinity of San Salvador that includes the El Boquerón stratovolcano and 25 monogenetic vents. We define a set of likely eruption scenarios for tephra fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). The eruption scenarios range from violent Strombolian eruptions with a significant uncertainty in source position to sub-Plinian and Plinian activity fed from the central cone. The adopted methodology is mainly based on numerical modeling using Tephra2 (adopting the software TephraProb) to study tephra fallout and the branching box model and the branching energy cone model (adopting the programs BoxMapProb 2.0 and ECMapProb 2.0) to describe inertial and frictional PDCs, respectively. Despite the dominant W-WSW-trending winds, numerical results show that Plinian eruptions at El Boquerón volcano are able to deposit thick tephra layers in the metropolitan area of San Salvador city, likely reaching mass loads of the order of 100 kg/m2 (conditional probability of 50%). The simulated sub-Plinian events highlight the seasonal influence of wind patterns. In fact, the conditional probability of significant tephra sedimentation in San Salvador city is strongly reduced when eruptions occur during the rainy season. Numerical modeling of violent Strombolian eruptions is performed considering uncertainty in vent position. Results show that the conditional probability of depositing tephra mass loads higher than 10 kg/m2 at a given point reaches a maximum value of ∼7% on the NW flank of the volcano, at about 8 km from the central crater. On the other hand, very low conditional probabilities (<1%) are obtained for San Salvador city for any relevant threshold (10 kg/m2 or more) of tephra mass load during violent Strombolian events. Regarding PDCs, results show that those produced during large-scale Plinian eruptions are able to invade significant areas of the volcano surroundings, including San Salvador city. PDCs generated from the partial collapse of a sub-Plinian eruption column exhibit maximum inundation probabilities on the N, W and S flanks of the volcano. Cerro El Picacho exerts a significant shield effect on the propagation of these PDCs, with low inundation probabilities for San Salvador city (<3%). Finally, coupling published vent opening probability maps and numerical modeling of small-scale PDCs yields maximum inundation probabilities on the NW flank of the volcano, reaching maximum conditional probabilities of the order of ∼10% and values of about 5% near the village of Nuevo Sitio del Niño.

Uncertainty Quantification of Eruption Source Parameters Estimated From Tephra Fall Deposits

AbstractUncertainty quantification (UQ) in eruption source parameters, like tephra volume, plume height, and umbrella cloud radius, is a challenge for volcano scientists because tephra deposits are often sparsely sampled due to burial, erosion, and related factors. We find that UQ is improved by coupling an advection‐diffusion model with two Bayesian inversion approaches: (a) a robust but computationally expensive Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation algorithm, and (b) a more approximate but inexpensive parameter estimation algorithm combined with first‐order, second‐moment uncertainty estimation. We apply the two inversion methods to one sparsely sampled tephra fall unit from the 2070 BP El Misti (Peru) eruption and obtain: Tephra mass 0.78–1.4 × 1011 kg; umbrella cloud radius 4.5–16.5 km, and plume height 8–35 km (95% confidence intervals). These broad ranges demonstrate the significance of UQ for eruption classification based on mapped deposits, which has implications for hazard management.

Eruption type probability and eruption source parameters at Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha volcanoes (Ecuador) with uncertainty quantification

Future occurrence of explosive eruptive activity at Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha volcanoes, Ecuador, is assessed probabilistically, utilizing expert elicitation. Eight eruption types were considered for each volcano. Type event probabilities were evaluated for the next eruption at each volcano and for at least one of each type within the next 100 years. For each type, we elicited relevant eruption source parameters (duration, average plume height, and total tephra mass). We investigated the robustness of these elicited evaluations by deriving probability uncertainties using three expert scoring methods. For Cotopaxi, we considered both rhyolitic and andesitic magmas. Elicitation findings indicate that the most probable next eruption type is an andesitic hydrovolcanic/ash-emission (~ 26–44% median probability), which has also the highest median probability of recurring over the next 100 years. However, for the next eruption at Cotopaxi, the average joint probabilities for sub-Plinian or Plinian type eruption is of order 30–40%—a significant chance of a violent explosive event. It is inferred that any Cotopaxi rhyolitic eruption could involve a longer duration and greater erupted mass than an andesitic event, likely producing a prolonged emergency. For Guagua Pichincha, future eruption types are expected to be andesitic/dacitic, and a vulcanian event is judged most probable for the next eruption (median probability ~40–55%); this type is expected to be most frequent over the next 100 years, too. However, there is a substantial probability (possibly >40% in average) that the next eruption could be sub-Plinian or Plinian, with all that implies for hazard levels.

A real-time tephra fallout rate model by a small-compact X-band Multi-Parameter radar

Real-time monitoring of volcanic tephra fallout rate is an important factor to predict ash plume dispersion and to mitigate risk to air traffic. Ground-based weather radar has been one of the fundamental instruments to detect the plume and derive eruptive source parameters, such as the tephra fallout rate. The current work presents the use of two small and compact X-band Multi-Parameter (X-MP) radars for a new tephra fallout rate model development and the technical aspects of the system in Sinabung and Merapi Volcanoes. The new model estimates the tephra fallout rate using two radar parameters: the specific differential phase shift parameter and the reflectivity intensity factor. Total cumulated mass estimated from the radar-based tephra fallout rate model from the radar is compared with the plume height model and an empirical radar-based model. A volcanic eruptive index (VEI)-2 of Sinabung generated a plume exceeding 15 km, resulting in a maximum tephra fallout rate of 0.58 kg m−2 h−1 and a total tephra mass of 51 × 106 kg. The VEI 1 of Sinabung caused a plume height of 2.5 km, resulting in a maximum tephra fallout rate of 0.3 kg m−2 h−1 and a total cumulated tephra of 9 × 106 kg. In the last case, a VEI 1 eruption of Mt. Merapi produces a 6 km plume, resulting in a maximum tephra fallout rate of 0.28 kg m−2 h−1 and a total cumulated tephra of 35 × 106 kg. The sector range height indicator scan-mode strategy in the VEI 2 eruption of Mt. Sinabung ran at six degrees azimuth angles capturing only a partial volume of the plume. Thus, the total mass was only 22% of the result from the empirical plume height model, even though the plume height was assumed to be equally the same with the maximum height scanned of radar at 7 km. In contrast, the volumetric scan by a plan position indicator strategy gave a total cumulated tephra mass, that matches better to the result of the empirical plume height model at 65–92%. Based on these results and the ability of the X-MP radar to capture the volcanic plume at the same reported onset time, we can confirm the importance of an X-MP radar for real-time tephra fallout monitoring during an eruption.

Tephra Mass Eruption Rate From Ground-Based X-Band and L-Band Microwave Radars During the November 23, 2013, Etna Paroxysm

The morning of November 23, 2013, a lava fountain formed from the New South-East Crater (NSEC) of Mt. Etna (Italy), one of the most active volcanoes in Europe. The explosive activity was observed from two ground-based radars, the X-band polarimetric scanning and the L-band Doppler fixed-pointing, as well as from a thermal-infrared camera. Taking advantage of the capability of the microwave radars to probe the volcanic plume and extending the volcanic ash radar retrieval (VARR) methodology, we estimate the mass eruption rate (MER) using three main techniques, namely surface-flux approach (SFA), mass continuity-based approach (MCA), and top-plume approach (TPA), as well as provide a quantitative evaluation of their uncertainty. Estimated exit velocities are between 160 and 230 m/s in the paroxysmal phase. The intercomparison between the SFA, MCA, and TPA methods, in terms of retrieved MER, shows a fairly good consistency with values up to $2.4\times 10^{6}$ kg/s. The estimated total erupted mass (TEM) is $3.8\times 10^{9}$ , $3.9\times 10^{9}$ , and $4.7\times 10^{9}$ kg for SFA with L-band, X-band, and thermal-infrared camera, respectively. Estimated TEM is between $1.7\times 10^{9}$ kg and $4.3\times 10^{9}$ for TPA methods and $3.9\times 10^{9}$ kg for the MCA technique. The SFA, MCA, and TPA results for TEM are in fairly good agreement with independent evaluations derived from ground collection of tephra deposit and estimated to be between $1.3\,\,\pm \,\,1.1\times 10^{9}$ and $5.7\times 10^{9}$ kg. This article shows that complementary strategies of ground-based remote sensing systems can provide an accurate real-time monitoring of a volcanic explosive activity.

Mass Eruption Rates of Tephra Plumes During the 2011–2015 Lava Fountain Paroxysms at Mt. Etna From Doppler Radar Retrievals

Real-time estimation of eruptive source parameters during explosive volcanic eruptions is a major challenge in terms of hazard evaluation and risk assessment as these inputs are essential for tephra dispersal models to forecast the impact of ash plumes and tephra deposits. In this aim, taking advantage of the 23.5 cm wavelength Doppler radar (VOLDORAD 2B) monitoring Etna volcano, we analyzed 47 paroxysms produced between 2011 and 2015, characterized by lava fountains generating tephra plumes that reached up to 15 km a.s.l. Range gating of the radar beam allows the identification of the active summit craters in real-time, no matter the meteorological conditions. The radar echoes help to mark (i) the onset of the paroxysm when unstable lava fountains, taking over Strombolian activity, continuously supply the developing tephra plume, then (ii) the transition to stable fountains (climax), and (iii) the end of the climax, therefore providing paroxysm durations. We developed a new methodology to retrieve in real-time a Mass Eruption Rate (MER) proxy from the radar echo power and maximum Doppler velocity measured near the emission source. The increase in MER proxies is found to precede by several minutes the time variations of plume heights inferred from visible and X-Band radar imagery. A calibration of the MER proxy against ascent models based on observed plume heights leads to radar-derived climax MER from 2.96 × 104 to 3.26 × 106 kg s−1. The Total Erupted Mass (TEM) of tephra was computed by integrating over beam volumes and paroxysm duration, allowing quantitative comparisons of the relative amounts of emitted tephra among the different paroxysms. When the climactic phase can be identified, it is found to frequently release 76% of the TEM. Calibrated TEMs are found to be larger than those retrieved by satellite and X-band radar observations, deposit analyses, ground-based infrared imagery, or dispersion modeling. Our methodology, potentially applicable to every Doppler radar, provides mass load parameters that represent a powerful all-weather tool for the quantitative monitoring and real-time hazard assessment of tephra plumes at Etna or any other volcano with radar monitoring.

Multisatellite Multisensor Observations of a Sub-Plinian Volcanic Eruption: The 2015 Calbuco Explosive Event in Chile

A-train satellite data, acquired during the Calbuco volcano (Chile) sub-Plinian eruption in April 2015, are discussed to explore the complementarity of spaceborne observations in the microwave (MW), thermal infrared (TIR), and visible wavelengths for both near-source plume and distal ash clouds. The analysis shows that TIR-based detection techniques are not suitable near the volcanic vent where rising convective columns are associated with large optical depths. Detection and parametric estimates of near-source tephra mass loading and plume height from MW radiometric data, available 69 min after the eruption onset, are proposed. Results indicate a maximum plume altitude of about 21 km above the sea level and an ash mass of $3.65 \times 10^{10}$ kg, in agreement with mass values obtained from empirical formulas, but less than proximal–distal mass deposit of $1.86 \times 10^{11}$ kg. This discrepancy may be explained by extrapolating Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder-based estimates to 6 h, thus obtaining a total mass of about $1.90 \times 10^{11}$ kg. Distal volcanic cloud retrievals are derived from TIR imagery and results show a good agreement between Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) retrievals of total mass taking into account the overpass time shift. If only the overlapping pixels between MODIS and VIIRS are considered, the respective estimates are $1.90 \times 10^{9}$ kg and $1.80 \times 10^{9}$ kg. TIR radiometric estimates of distal ash cloud height and mass loadings are also compared with Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations lidar retrievals. For low-to-medium optically thick ash cloud, average Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization-derived mass loading is about 0.8 g/m2 against 0.4 g/m2 from VIIRS and 1.4 g/m2 from MODIS.

Distribution and mass of tephra-fall deposits from volcanic eruptions of Sakurajima Volcano based on posteruption surveys

We estimate the total mass of ash fall deposits for individual eruptions of Sakurajima Volcano, southwest Japan based on distribution maps of the tephra fallout. Five ash-sampling campaigns were performed between 2011 and 2015, during which time Sakurajima continued to emit ash from frequent Vulcanian explosions. During each survey, between 29 and 53 ash samplers were installed in a zone 2.2–43 km downwind of the source crater. Total masses of erupted tephra were estimated using several empirical methods based on the relationship between the area surrounded by a given isopleth and the thickness of ash fall within each isopleth. We obtained 70–40,520 t (4.7 × 10−8–2.7 × 10−5-km3 DRE) as the minimum estimated mass of erupted materials for each eruption period. The minimum erupted mass of tephra produced during the recorded events was calculated as being 890–5140 t (5.9 × 10−7–3.6 × 10−6-km3 DRE). This calculation was based on the total mass of tephra collected during any one eruptive period and the number of eruptions during that period. These values may thus also include the contribution of continuous weak ash emissions before and after prominent eruptions. We analyzed the meteorological effects on ash fall distribution patterns and concluded that the width of distribution area of an ash fall is strongly controlled by the near-ground wind speed. The direction of the isopleth axis for larger masses is affected by the local wind direction at ground level. Furthermore, the wind direction influences the direction of the isopleth axes more at higher altitude. While a second maximum of ash fall can appear, the influence of rain might only affect the finer particles in distal areas.

The opening subplinian phase of the Hekla 1991 eruption: properties of the tephra fall deposit

The 1991 Hekla eruption started on 17th of January with an intense 50-min-long explosive phase that transitioned into fire fountain activity lasting for 2 days. The eruptive plume rose to maximum height in about 10 min and the total mass of tephra deposited from the opening phase was 8.6 × 109 kg (VEI 3 event). The principal axis of tephra fall is to the NNE of Hekla and grain-size analysis reveals a systematic decrease in grain-size away from source. Majority of sample sites show typically unimodal grain-size distributions, although a few have bimodal distributions where the secondary mode is a subtle finer peak. The calculated total grain-size distribution (TGSD) is bimodal, with a coarse primary peak (−3.5 to −2.5 φ) and a subordinate fine peak (2.5 to 3.5 φ). The coarse peak is lapilli-dominated and was deposited within the first 25 km of transport, whereas the fine peak is coarse-ash-dominated and fits well with the modal grain-size of samples deposited >65 km from Hekla. Ascent rate of the magma and conditions for vesiculation in the shallow conduit became increasingly uniform with time through the 1991 opening phase.

Volcanic ash leaching as a means of tracing the environmental impact of the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption, Iceland.

The Grímsvötn volcanic eruption, from 21 to 28 May, 2011, was the largest eruption of the Grímsvötn Volcanic System since 1873, with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of magnitude 4. The main geochemical features of the potential environmental impact of the volcanic ash-water interaction were determined using two different leaching methods as proxies (batch and vertical flow-through column experiments). Ash consists of glass with minor amounts of plagioclase, clinopyroxene, diopside, olivine and iron sulphide; this latter mineral phase is very rare in juvenile ash. Ash grain morphology and size reflect the intense interaction of magma and water during eruption. Batch and column leaching tests in deionised water indicate that Na, K, Ca, Mg, Si, Cl, S and F had the highest potential geochemical fluxes to the environment. Release of various elements from volcanic ash took place immediately through dissolution of soluble salts from the ash surface. Element solubilities of Grímsvötn ash regarding bulk ash composition were <1%. Combining the element solubilities and the total estimated mass of tephra (7.29 × 10(14)g), the total inputs of environmentally important elements were estimated to be 8.91 × 10(9)g Ca, 7.02 × 10(9)g S, 1.10 × 10(9)g Cl, 9.91 × 10(8)g Mg, 9.91 × 10(8)g Fe and 1.45 × 10(8)g P The potential environmental problems were mainly associated with the release of F (5.19 × 10(9)g).

Stratigraphy and physical parameters of the Plinian phase of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption

The Campanian Ignimbrite eruption (39 ka) was the most powerful eruptive event of the Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy). This event coincided with the onset of a cold climatic phase and the Paleolithic transition from Neanderthals to modern humans. The eruption started with a sustained column that emplaced a widespread pyroclastic fall deposit covering an area >4000 km2 within the 15 cm isopach. For the first time, we present the complete longitudinal variation from the coarse and 10-m-thick proximal (down to 15 km) sequence, through the well-stratified pumice lapilli deposit in medial areas (30−80 km), to the distal tephra (hundreds to thousands of kilometers distant). The Plinian pumice fall deposit shows a strong lateral heterogeneity due to variations in stratification, grading, and abundance of components. All Campanian Ignimbrite fall layers display Plinian dispersal. Variation of grain size with stratigraphic height suggests that the convective plume was far from steady state. Initially, the plume dispersed 1.3 km3 of tephra toward the ENE (N75°E) from a height of 29 km (layer A). A gradual increase in intensity resulted in inverse grading of layer B. Column height increased from 26 to 37 km at a vertical velocity of 3.6 m/s. It had a main dispersal axis to the east (N97°E) and a secondary lobe to the southeast (N137°E). During this phase, a maximum volume of 1.73 km3 of tephra was emplaced. Accessory lithics concentrated in layer C are possibly due to vent clearing after partial blockage of the vent. The 33-km-high column dispersed ejecta to the east (N95°E), with only 0.2 km3 of tephra erupted during this phase. During the successive gradual decline in eruption intensity (column height decreased from 38 to 32 km at a velocity of 4.2 m/s), a normally graded layer (D) with a volume of 1 km3 accumulated to the east (N95°E). The sustained column phase ended with a pulsating and partially collapsing column that reached 23 km in height and dispersed 1.1 km3 of a stratified and lithic-rich succession (layer E) to the southeast (N112°E). If we include the distal co-Plinian deposit, a total volume of 7.8 km3 (dense rock equivalent [DRE]) of magma was released (containing 0.09 km3 of accessory lithics). Tephra mass for the single layers is on the order of 1011 kg, and the total mass is ∼2 × 1012 kg (2 × 1013 kg including the co-Plinian ash). Mass discharge rates ranged from 0.9 to 6.7 × 108 kg/s. The calculated magnitude of the sustained column phase is 6.3. The duration of the Plinian phase of this eruption, based on the ratio of two parameters, erupted mass divided by discharge rate, is estimated to have been ∼20 h (including co-Plinian ash). This study shows that Plinian deposits are not always homogeneous and, as for pyroclastic current deposits, can show an articulate architecture. Only the complete reconstruction of vertical and lateral variations in components, stratification, and grading might provide insights into the temporal and spatial evolution of the sustained plume.

Near-source Doppler radar monitoring of tephra plumes at Etna

Over the last twenty years Mount Etna has produced more than one hundred explosive events ranging from light ash emissions to violent sub-plinian eruptions. Significant hazards arise from tephra plumes which directly threaten air traffic, and generate fallout affecting surrounding towns and infrastructures. We describe the first radar system, named VOLDORAD 2B, fully integrated into a volcano instrumental network dedicated to the continuous near-source monitoring of tephra emissions from Etna's summit craters. This 23.5cm wavelength pulsed Doppler radar is operated in collaboration between the Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (OPGC) and the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) since 2009. Probed volumes inside the fixed, northward-pointing conical beam total about 1.5km in length, covering the summit craters which produced all recent tephra plumes. The backscattered power, related to the amount of particles crossing the beam, and particle along-beam velocities are recorded every 0.23s, providing a proxy for the tephra mass eruption rate. Radar raw data are transmitted in real-time to the volcano monitoring center of INGV-OE in Catania and are used to automatically release alerts at onset and end of eruptive events. Processed radar parameters are also made available from the VOLDORAD database online (http://voldorad.opgc.fr/). In addition to eruptive crater discrimination by range gating, relative variations of eruption intensity can be tracked, including through overcast weather when other optical or infrared methods may fail to provide information. Short-lived dense ash emissions can be detected as illustrated for weak ash plumes from the Bocca Nuova and New South East craters in 2010. The comparison with thermal images suggests that the front mushroom of individual ash plumes holds the largest particles (coarse ash and small lapilli) and concentrations at least within the first hundred meters. For these short-lived ash plumes, the highest particle mass flux seems to occur typically within the first 10s. We also analyze data from the first lava fountain generating an ash and lapilli plume on 12 January 2011 that initiated a series of 25 paroxysmal episodes of the New South East Crater until April 2012. We illustrate the pulsating behavior of the lava fountain and show that vertical velocities reached 250ms−1 (with brief peaks exceeding 300ms−1), leading to mean and maximum tephra fluxes (DRE) of 185 and 318m3s−1 (with peaks exceeding 380m3s−1) respectively, and a total volume of pyroclasts emitted during the lava fountain phase of 1.3×106m3. Finally, we discuss capacities and limits of the instrument, along with future work aimed at providing source term inputs to tephra dispersal models in order to improve hazard assessment and risk mitigation at Etna.

Influence of volcanic tephra on photovoltaic (PV)-modules: an experimental study with application to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Iceland

Large volcanic eruptions may lead to significant tephra dispersion, crossing borders and affecting distant and industrial societies in various ways. While the effects of volcanic ash clouds on the aviation industry have been recognized, damaging effects on the photovoltaic energy sector are poorly investigated. Here we describe the influence of volcanic tephra deposition on photovoltaic (PV) modules that we experimentally analyzed and evaluated. A systematic set of experiments was conducted under controlled conditions using an artificial light source and measuring the electrical power generated from the PV-modules with the aim to determine the dependency of the amount of tephra covering a module and its subsequent loss in power production (measured in voltage and current) as well as the influence of the tephra grain size. We find that a mass of fine tephra has a stronger influence on the PV-modules power generation than the same mass of coarser particles. An application to the fine-grained 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption in Iceland and the resulting ash-cloud reveals that the power produced by PV-modules in continental Europe might have been affected significantly. Deposits were thick enough to cause complete failures of PV-modules up to a distance of about 300 km downwind. Although this distance is largely over the ocean in this particular case, our results imply that similar and larger eruptions of other volcanoes elsewhere might harm commercial or private energy production at distances of hundreds to thousands of kilometers from the volcano. Given that volcanic eruptions are frequent and the fact that the PV-industry is growing rapidly, negative impacts are expected in the future, requiring close tephra dispersion monitoring and PV-maintenance strategies.

Dynamics and tephra dispersal of Violent Strombolian eruptions at Vesuvius: insights from field data, wind reconstruction and numerical simulation of the 1906 event

Mt. Vesuvius is one of the most studied volcanoes in the world and its proximity to an extremely populated area makes it also one of the most threatening. Violent Strombolian (VS) events have occurred in the most recent history of the volcano, and they are the type most likely to occur in case of reactivation of the volcano in the near future. In order to investigate the dynamics and hazard of this type of eruption, we performed new field and laboratory work and numerical simulations of plume dynamics, fallout and tephra dispersal associated with such eruptions. Attention was specifically focused on the 1906 eruption, a recent and well-studied VS event. Based on new field analyses and historical observations, we reconstructed the temporal evolution of eruption source conditions during the event. The reconstructed explosive phase of the eruption is inferred to have been 8 days long and characterized by two distinct stages: a former short and intense period with sustained convective plume fed by powerful lava fountains (20 h) followed by a prolonged and less intense period of ash emission (172 h). The total grain-size distributions for both phases, used as inputs to the model, were obtained by field work and laboratory analyses. Based on these new volcanological data and reconstruction of wind field direction and intensity, partially derived from historical sources, the 1906 event was numerically simulated and results compared to deposit distributions. The modelling outcomes for the ash emission phase provide a better agreement with the measured tephra mass load for a simulation run in which ash aggregation (described by the models of Cornell et al. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 17:89–109, 1983, and Biass et al. Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 14:2265–2287, 2014) is specifically taken into account, confirming the importance of this process during tephra dispersal. The aggregation model that best fits the simulated results to the measured ground loadings has 80 % of particles Φ ≥ 4 that aggregate uniformly in the range Φ = −1 to 3. Two additional simulations of a VS event were carried out by using meteorological data of two specific periods to exemplify weather’s potential on impacts of such eruptions, particularly tephra loading, on the surrounding areas. The model outcomes clearly highlight the major effects of differences in local meteorology on plume dynamics and ash dispersal and the key role of wind shear in determining the cumulative thickness of ground deposits. Results also show that, due to the long duration of this kind of eruption and the large variability in zonal winds at this latitude, ash dispersal and fallout from VS events at Vesuvius represent a probable hazard for all of the territory near Vesuvius, including the city of Naples, where cumulative tephra loadings might reach critical thresholds for roof collapse and infrastructure damage.

Sigmoidal particle density distribution in a subplinian scoria fall deposit

A general expression to describe particle density distribution in tephra fall deposits is essential to improve fallout tephra mass determination and numerical modelling of tephra dispersion. To obtain particle density distributions in tephra fall deposits, we performed high-resolution componentry and particle density analyses on samples from the 2006 subplinian eruption of Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador. Six componentry classes, including pumice and scoria, have been identified in our sample collection. We determined the class of 300 clasts in each 0.5ϕ fractions from −4.5ϕ to 3.5ϕ and carried out water pycnometry density measurements on selected size fractions. Results indicate that the mean particle density increases with ϕ up to a plateau of ~2.6 g/cm3 for clasts finer than 1.5ϕ. The density of scoria and pumice increases between −3 and 1ϕ, while dense particle density is sub-constant with grainsize. We show that the mean particle density μ of the vesicular fractions is a function of grainsize i (ϕ scale) given by a sigmoidal law: $$ \mu (i)={{{K+\beta }} \left/ {{\left( {1+\alpha {e^{-ri }}} \right)}} \right.} $$ , where K, β, α and r are constants. These sigmoidal distributions can be used to determine accurately the load of each componentry class and should be applicable to many tephra deposits and for modelling purposes.

Novel inversion approach to constrain plume sedimentation from tephra deposit data: Application to the 17 June 1996 eruption of Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

We introduce a new inversion approach to constrain eruption source parameters and the distribution of tephra sedimentation from a weak plume. Our model is parameterized as a set of point sources along the plume base, whose trajectory is constrained by satellite and photographic images. Each point source releases tephra that is dispersed according to an advection‐diffusion equation. This dispersion process is expressed as a system of linear equations with nonlinear dependence on diffusivity and wind speed. We employ inversion techniques to estimate the tephra mass released by each point source as well as diffusivity, stabilizing the inversion by regularization. We apply our method to the Ruapehu eruption on 17 June, 1996 in New Zealand, which was characterized by a strongly wind‐advected plume that can be studied via tephra isomass measurements and particle size distributions at 119 locations. We demonstrate that the approach is feasible by performing analyses with real and synthetic data at a single grain size, and gain insight into the effects of data gaps, presence of noise, and nonlinear parameters on the inversion results. The best fit value of diffusivity yields tephra fallout that decreases steadily with distance to vent, and the predicted deposit is a good fit to the field measurements. This study illustrates the potential of a direct inversion approach to constrain diffusivity, as well as to recover the tephra fallout, without assuming a physical model for mass transport inside the plume.

Monitoring of the plume from the basaltic phreatomagmatic 2004 Grímsvötn eruption—application of weather radar and comparison with plume models

The Grimsvotn eruption in November 2004 belongs to a class of small- to medium-sized phreatomagmatic eruptions which are common in Iceland. The eruption lasted 6 days, but the main phase, producing most of the 0.02 km3 of magma erupted, was visible for 33 h on the C-band weather radar of the Icelandic Meteorological Office located in Keflavik, 260 km to the west of the volcano. The plume rose to 8–12 km high over sea level during 33 h. The long distance between radar and source severely reduces the accuracy of the plume height determinations, causing 3.5-km steps in recorded heights. Moreover, an apparent height overestimate of ~1.5 km in the uncorrected radar records occurs, possibly caused by wave ducting or super-refraction in the atmosphere. The stepping and the height overestimate can be partly overcome by averaging the plume heights and by applying a height adjustment based on direct aircraft measurements. Adjusted weather radar data on plume height are used to estimate the total mass erupted using empirical plume models mostly based on magmatic eruptions and to compare it with detailed in situ measurements of the mass of erupted tephra. The errors arising because of the large radar plume distance limit the applicability of the data for detailed comparisons. However, the results indicate that the models overestimate the mass erupted by a factor of three to four. This supports theoretical models indicating that high steam content of phreatomagmatic (wet) plumes enhances their height compared to dry plumes.

Validating Subglacial Volcanic Eruption Using Ground-Based C-Band Radar Imagery

The main phase of the moderately sized November 2004 eruption of the Grímsvötn volcano, located in the center of the 8100 km <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> Vatnajökull glacier, was monitored by the Icelandic Meteorological Office C-band weather radar in Keflavík, 260 km west of the volcano. The eruption plume reached a height of 6-10 km relative to the vent. The distribution of the most distal tephra was measured in the autumn of 2004, while the deposition on the glacier was mapped in the summers of 2005 and 2006. The tephra formed a well-defined layer on the glacier in the region north and northeast of the craters. The total mass of the tephra layer is quantitatively compared with the retrieved values, obtained from an improved version of the volcanic ash radar retrieval (VARR) algorithm. VARR was statistically calibrated with ground-based ash size distribution samples, taken at Vatnajökull, and by taking into account both antenna beam occlusion and wind-driven plume advection. The latter was implemented by using a space-time image phase-based cross-correlation technique. Accuracy of the weather radar records was also reviewed, noting that a large variability in the plume height estimation may be obtained using different approaches. The comparisons suggest that, at least for this subglacial eruption, the surface tephra mass, estimated by using the VARR inversion approach, is in a fairly good agreement with in situ measurements in terms of spatial extension, distribution, and amount.

Evaluation of Redoubt Volcano's sulfur dioxide emissions by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

The 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska, provided a rare opportunity to compare satellite measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2) by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) with airborne SO2 measurements by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). Herein we: (1) compare OMI and airborne SO2 column density values for Redoubt's tropospheric plume, (2) calculate daily SO2 masses from Mount Redoubt for the first three months of the eruption, (3) develop simple methods to convert daily measured SO2 masses into emission rates to allow satellite data to be directly integrated with the airborne SO2 emissions dataset, (4) calculate cumulative SO2 emissions from the eruption, and (5) evaluate OMI as a monitoring tool for high-latitude degassing volcanoes. A linear correlation (R2~0.75) is observed between OMI and airborne SO2 column densities. OMI daily SO2 masses for the sample period ranged from ~60.1kt on 24 March to below detection limit, with an average daily SO2 mass of ~6.7kt. The highest SO2 emissions were observed during the initial part of the explosive phase and the emissions exhibited an overall decreasing trend with time. OMI SO2 emission rates were derived using three methods and compared to airborne measurements. This comparison yields a linear correlation (R2~0.82) with OMI-derived emission rates consistently lower than airborne measurements. The comparison results suggest that OMI's detection limit for high latitude, springtime conditions varies from ~2000 to 4000t/d. Cumulative SO2 masses calculated from daily OMI data for the sample period are estimated to range from 542 to 615kt, with approximately half of this SO2 produced during the explosive phase of the eruption. These cumulative masses are similar in magnitude to those estimated for the 1989–90 Redoubt eruption. Strong correlations between daily OMI SO2 mass and both tephra mass and acoustic energy during the explosive phase of the eruption suggest that OMI data may be used to infer relative eruption size and explosivity. Further, when used in conjunction with complementary datasets, OMI daily SO2 masses may be used to help distinguish explosive from effusive activity and identify changes in lava extrusion rates. The results of this study suggest that OMI is a useful volcano monitoring tool to complement airborne measurements, capture explosive SO2 emissions, and provide high temporal resolution SO2 emissions data that can be used with interdisciplinary datasets to illuminate volcanic processes.

Monitoring Subglacial Volcanic Eruption Using Ground-Based C-Band Radar Imagery

The main phase of the moderately sized November 2004 eruption of the Grimsvotn volcano, located in the center of the 8100 km2 Vatnajokull glacier, was monitored by the Icelandic Meteorological Office C-band weather radar in Keflavik, 260 km west of the volcano. The eruption plume reached a height of 6-10 km relative to the vent. The distribution of the most distal tephra was measured in the autumn of 2004, while the deposition on the glacier was mapped in the summers of 2005 and 2006. The tephra formed a well-defined layer on the glacier in the region north and northeast of the craters. The total mass of the tephra layer is quantitatively compared with the retrieved values, obtained from an improved version of the volcanic ash radar retrieval (VARR) algorithm. VARR was statistically calibrated with ground-based ash size distribution samples, taken at Vatnajokull, and by taking into account both antenna beam occlusion and wind-driven plume advection. The latter was implemented by using a space-time image phase-based cross-correlation technique. Accuracy of the weather radar records was also reviewed, noting that a large variability in the plume height estimation may be obtained using different approaches. The comparisons suggest that, at least for this subglacial eruption, the surface tephra mass, estimated by using the VARR inversion approach, is in a fairly good agreement with in situ measurements in terms of spatial extension, distribution, and amount.