Ice Mass Research Articles

Mapping Ice Buried by the 1875 and 1961 Tephra of Askja Volcano, Northern Iceland Using Ground‐Penetrating Radar: Implications for Askja Caldera as a Geophysical Testbed for In Situ Resource Utilization

AbstractEruptions of the Askja Volcano in Northern Iceland in 1875 and 1961 blanketed the caldera with rhyolitic and basaltic tephra deposits, respectively, which preserved layers of seasonal snowpack as massive ice. Askja serves as an operational and geophysical analog to test ground‐penetrating radar field and analysis techniques for in situ resource utilization objectives relevant to the martian and lunar environments. We conducted ground‐penetrating radar surveys at center frequencies of 200, 400, and 900 MHz to map the thickness and extent of tephra deposits and underlying massive ice at three caldera sites. We identified up to 1 m of tephra preserving up to 4.4 m of massive ice. We measured the real dielectric permittivity of the overlying tephra and the total attenuation at each frequency of the tephra and ice. A key objective of our investigation was to determine if attenuation (or loss) could be used as an additional diagnostic signature of massive ice preserved at depth when compared to ice‐free stratigraphy. Loss rates of the ice‐rich subsurface decrease with increasing ice thickness relative to the overburden, which may constitute a possible signature. Attenuation also increased with increasing frequency. The tephra, ice, and other volcanic deposits at each of our three caldera sites and the ice‐free, pumice‐mantled 1961 Vikrahraun lava flow exhibited consistently low loss rates at all frequencies. This result highlights the ambiguity associated with identifying the unique signature of ice within low‐loss stratigraphies, a possible challenge for its identification in the martian or lunar subsurface using radar.

FIRST DIRECT RADIOCARBON DATING (22–27 CAL KA BP) OF MASSIVE ICE AT THE MECHIGMEN AND LAVRENTIYA BAYS COAST, EASTERN CHUKOTKA

ABSTRACTThe Eastern Chukotka is considered a unique permafrost region where massive ice bodies are widespread. However, the origin and age of these ice formations are often discussed. The age of the massive ice of Chukotka was established for the first time using AMS 14C dating. It was revealed that three massive ice bodies on the coast of Mechigmen Bay were formed at the end of the Late Pleistocene: a) near the Akkani site, 21,612 to 22,147 cal BP; b) near the Lavrentiya settlement, 27,553 cal BP; and c) near the Lavrentiya settlement, 22,193 cal BP. Stable isotope values in the studied massive ice vary in a rather wide range by about 10‰ for δ18O values (from –14.8‰ to –24.5‰) and about 75‰ for the δ2H values (from –116‰ to –191‰). The studied massive ice bodies are of intrasedimental genesis and formed epigenetically during the final stage of MIS2 (22–27 cal ka BP).

CloudSat Observations Show Enhanced Moisture Transport Events Increase Snowfall Rate and Frequency Over Antarctic Ice Sheet Basins

AbstractElevated moisture transport over the Antarctic ice sheet can increase snowfall and ice mass. Previous studies used ground‐based observations, reanalysis products, and atmospheric models to evaluate the relationship between extreme moisture transport and snowfall properties. Here, we build on previous studies by combining reanalysis and CloudSat radar snowfall retrievals to examine impacts of extreme moisture intrusions on changes in snowfall frequency and intensity over glacier basins on the Antarctic ice sheet. We examine the impacts of enhanced moisture transport events on snowfall frequency and intensity over two different regions on the Antarctic ice sheet: the Amery Ice Shelf of East Antarctica and the Thwaites and Pine Island glacier basins of West Antarctica. We determine when the median integrated water vapor transport from reanalysis exceeds the 95th percentile within the glacier basins of interest to define enhanced moisture transport events. We then use CloudSat radar snowfall retrievals to evaluate differences between snowfall frequency and intensity during enhanced water vapor transport events compared to the seasonal means for 2007–2010. We find that enhanced moisture transport events over the Amery Ice Shelf and Thwaites and Pine Island glacier basins coincide with higher snowfall frequency and intensity. These enhanced moisture transport events have the potential to alter surface mass balance within glacier basins, with implications for future rates of sea level rise.

Sea ice cover in the Copernicus Arctic Regional Reanalysis

Abstract. The Copernicus Arctic Regional Reanalysis (CARRA) is a novel regional high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis product that covers a considerable part of the European Arctic including substantial amounts of ice-covered areas. Sea ice in CARRA is modelled by means of a one-dimensional thermodynamic sea ice parameterisation scheme, which also explicitly resolves the evolution of the snow layer over sea ice. In the present study, we assess the representation of sea ice cover in CARRA and validate it against a wide set of satellite products and observations from ice mass balance buoys. We show that CARRA adequately represents general interannual trends towards thinner and warmer ice in the Arctic. Compared to ERA5, sea ice in CARRA shows a reduced warm bias in the ice surface temperature. The strongest improvement was observed for winter months over the central Arctic and the Greenland and Barents seas where a 4.91 °C median ice surface temperature error in ERA5 is reduced to 1.88 °C in CARRA on average. Over Baffin Bay, intercomparisons suggest the presence of a cold winter-time ice surface temperature bias in CARRA. No improvement over ERA5 was found in the ice surface albedo with spring-time errors in CARRA being up to 0.08 higher on average than those in ERA5 when computed against the CLARA-A2 satellite retrieval product. Summer-time ice surface albedos are comparable in CARRA and ERA5. Sea ice thickness and snow depth in CARRA adequately resolve the annual cycle of sea ice cover in the Arctic and bring added value compared to ERA5. However, limitations of CARRA indicate potential benefits of utilising more advanced approaches for representing sea ice cover in next-generation reanalyses.

Snow thermal conductivity and conductive flux in the Central Arctic: Estimates from observations and implications for models

During the Arctic winter, the conductive heat flux through the sea ice and snow balances the radiative and turbulent heat fluxes at the surface. Snow on sea ice is a thermal insulator that reduces the magnitude of the conductive flux. The thermal conductivity of snow, that is, how readily energy is conducted, is known to vary significantly in time and space from observations, but most forecast and climate models use a constant value. This work begins with a demonstration of the importance of snow thermal conductivity in a regional coupled forecast model. Varying snow thermal conductivity impacts the magnitudes of all surface fluxes, not just conduction, and their responses to atmospheric forcing. Given the importance of snow thermal conductivity in models, we use observations from sea ice mass balance buoys installed during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition to derive the profiles of thermal conductivity, density, and conductive flux. From 13 sites, median snow thermal conductivity ranges from 0.33 W m−1 K−1 to 0.47 W m−1 K−1 with a median from all data of 0.39 W m−1 K−1 from October to February. In terms of surface energy budget closure, estimated conductive fluxes are generally smaller than the net atmospheric flux by as much as 20 W m−2, but the average residual during winter is −6 W m−2, which is within the uncertainties. The spatial variability of conductive heat flux is highest during clear and cold time periods. Higher surface temperature, which often occurs during cloudy conditions, and thicker snowpacks reduce temporal and spatial variability. These relationships are compared between observations and the coupled forecast model, emphasizing both the importance and challenge of describing thermodynamic parameters of snow cover for modeling the Arctic as a coupled system.

Grain growth of ice doped with soluble impurities

Abstract. The grain size of polycrystalline ice affects key parameters related to the dynamics of ice masses, such as the rheological and dielectric properties of terrestrial ice as well as the ice shells of icy satellites. To investigate the effect of soluble impurities on the grain-growth kinetics of polycrystalline ice, we conducted annealing experiments on polycrystalline ice samples doped with different concentrations of KCl (10−2, 10−3, 10−4 and 10−5 mol L−1) or MgSO4 (10−2 and 10−5 mol L−1). Samples were annealed for a maximum of 100 h at a hydrostatic confining pressure of 20 MPa (corresponding to a depth of about 2 km) and different constant temperatures of 268, 263, 258 and 253 K (corresponding to −5, −10, −15 and −20 °C, respectively). After each experiment, images of a polished sample surface were obtained using an optical microscope equipped with a cold stage. With grain boundaries detected, grains were reconstructed from the images, and an average grain size was determined for each sample. Normal grain growth occurred in all samples. Grain-size data are interpreted using the following grain-growth model: dn-d0n=kt (d: grain size; d0: starting grain size; n: grain-growth exponent; k: growth constant; t: duration). Values of the best-fit grain-growth exponent, n, for all samples range from 2.6 to 6.2, with an average value of 4.7. Pure ice exhibits 3.1 ⩽n⩽ 4.6, with an average value of 3.8. Above the eutectic point, soluble impurities enhance grain growth, as a melt phase is formed, and it could provide a fast diffusion pathway. Below the eutectic point, soluble impurities impede grain growth probably via the formation of salt hydrates that could pin the grain boundaries. Close to the eutectic point, the grain growth of doped ice is similar to pure ice. Natural ice is impure, often containing air bubbles and soluble impurities, and is usually subjected to a hydrostatic pressure. Our data set will provide new insights into the evolution of grain size within and the dynamics of natural ice masses.

Effects of Andrade and Burgers rheologies on glacial isostatic adjustment modeling in Antarctica

Variations in ice mass deform the Earth and modify its gravity field, a process known as Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). GIA in Antarctica remains poorly constrained due to the cumulative effect of past and present ice-mass changes, the unknown history of the past ice-mass change, and the uncertainties on the mechanical properties of the Earth. This paper investigates the effect of using Andrade and Burgers viscoelastic rheologies, rather than the commonly used Maxwell rheology, to model GIA-induced deformation in Antarctica. The Love number and Green's function formalism are used to compute the radial surface displacements and the gravity changes induced by the past and present ice-mass changes. We consider an Earth model whose elastic properties and radial structure are averaged from the Preliminary Reference Earth Model and two viscosity profiles to account for the recently published results on the present ice-mass changes. Using the three rheological laws affects the temporal response of the Earth differently, leading to smaller discrepancies than those induced by the two viscosity structures. The differences are the largest between Maxwell and Burgers rheologies during the 100–1000 years following the beginning of the surface-mass change. Results show that using the Andrade and Burgers rheologies allows the Earth to respond on decennial to centennial time scales, up to 10 m more than Maxwell. Considering only the recent ice-mass changes, the deformation rates derived from Burgers and Andrade rheologies are several times larger than those estimated by Maxwell rheology.

Retroceso del glaciar del Carihuairazo y sus implicaciones en la comunidad de Cunucyacu

The retreat of glaciers is a reality throughout the Andes Mountain range, especially in low-altitude mountains. One of these cases is the loss of the remaining ice mass in Carihuairazo (Tungurahua, Ecuador), which in recent years has experienced a considerable retreat. This research aims to characterize the retreat of this glacier and its implications for the nearby community (Cunucyacu) through the application of a multi-source methodology, which includes the collection of glacier aerial photographs, data from nearby meteorological stations, the use of global climate reanalysis data, interviews with community members, and mountaineers who work and frequent the area. To characterize the glacier’s mass evolution, a hydroglaciological model was applied, using input data from meteorological series, and its parameters were calibrated with the photographic record of the glacier’s outline. The results show a glacier loss of 99% of its surface in 1956 (0.34 ) by 2021. The model successfully simulates the glacier area variation over 67 years, revealing a continuous decrease since 1978, with short periods of recovery and equilibrium, where temperature is the variable that best explains the glacier’s retreat. However, the model fails to consider the effect of external factors, such as the eruption of the Tungurahua volcano that could enhance the glacier retreat. The Carihuairazo glacier is in a situation of inevitable disappearance, highlighting the vulnerabilities of communities facing this phenomenon as a consequence of climate change.

18-years of high-Alpine rock wall monitoring using terrestrial laser scanning at the Tour Ronde east face, Mont-Blanc massif

Since the end of the 20th century, each decade has been warmer than the previous one in the European Alps. As a consequence, Alpine rock walls are generally facing high rockfall activity, likely due to permafrost degradation. We use a unique terrestrial laser scanning derived rockfall catalog over 18 years (2005–2022) compared with photographs (1859–2022) to quantify the evolution of the east face of Tour Ronde (3440–3792 m a.s.l.) in the Mont-Blanc massif (western European Alps) that is permafrost-affected. Overall, 210 rockfalls were identified, from 1 to 15 500 m3. Forty-five events were >100 m3 while cumulated volume of events <10 m3 represents <1% of the fallen rocks. The rockfall magnitude-frequency distribution of the overall inventory follows a power law, with a mean exponent b of 0.44 ± 0.03, characterizing a high contribution of large rockfalls. The depth of failure ranges from a few centimeters to more than 20 m while 95% of the rockfalls depth is <5 m, highlighting the role of the active layer. The mean rock wall erosion rate is 18.3 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 for the 2005–2022 period and ranks in the top range of reported values in the Alps. It has greatly increased between the periods 2006–2014 and 2016–2022, probably in relation to a series of summer heat waves. The exceptional erosion rate of 2015 is driven by one large rockfall in August. Since 2006, an ice apron that covered 16 100 m2 has now almost vanished, and the surface of the glacier du Géant at the rock wall foot has lowered by several tens of meters. The retreat of these two ice masses contributed to the rock wall instability as more than 35% of the rockfall volume detached from the deglaciated surfaces.

Coevolving edge rounding and shape of glacial erratics: the case of Shap granite, UK

Abstract. The size distributions and the shapes of detrital rock clasts can shed light on the environmental history of the clast assemblages and the processes responsible for clast comminution. For example, mechanical fracture due to the stresses imposed on a basal rock surface by a body of flowing glacial ice releases initial “parent” shapes of large blocks of rock from an outcrop, which then are modified by the mechanics of abrasion and fracture during subglacial transport. The latter processes produce subsequent generations of shapes, possibly distinct in form from the parent blocks. A complete understanding of both the processes responsible for block shape changes and the trends in shape adjustment with time and distance away from the source outcrop is lacking. Field data on edge rounding and shape changes of Shap granite blocks (dispersed by Devensian ice eastwards from the outcrop) are used herein to explore the systematic changes in block form with distance from the outcrop. The degree of edge rounding for individual blocks increases in a punctuated fashion with the distance from the outcrop as blocks fracture repeatedly to introduce new fresh unrounded edges. In contrast, block shape is conservative, with parent blocks fracturing to produce self-similar “child” shapes with distance. Measured block shapes evolve in accord with two well-known models for block fracture mechanics – (1) stochastic and (2) silver ratio models – towards one or the other of these two attractor states. Progressive reduction in block size, in accord with fracture mechanics, reflects the fact that most blocks were transported at the sole of the ice mass and were subject to the compressive and tensile forces of the ice acting on the stoss surfaces of blocks lying against a bedrock or till surface. The interpretations might apply to a range of homogeneous hard rock lithologies.

Rock and ice avalanche-generated catastrophic debris flow at Chamoli, 7 February 2021: New insights from the geomorphic perspective

Within mountainous landscapes neighboring glaciers, slope instabilities and consequent catastrophic mass flows are vital processes on Earth's surface, which have been of increasing interest for decades. These events commonly exhibit large volume, high velocity, and high mobility. Recently, a catastrophic debris flow occurred in India on 7 February 2021, which unfortunately claimed 70 lives and left 134 people missing. The failed mass comprises 80 % rock debris and 20 % glacier ice. Our remote sedimentological investigation of remnant deposition shows clear evidence of wet granular flow in upper Ronti Gad valley, which doesn't support the previous interpretation of immediate melting of the failed 20 % ice mass during the falling and impacting process. We further utilized the superelevation phenomenon to back-calculate the velocity downstream of the impact zone, and estimated the peak discharge, which is verified by field-documented data. Our results revealed an initial waning trend of rock and ice mass flow. As it entered the narrow valley of the lower Ronti Gad River, the extensive material erosion resulted in three-fold flow enlargement, which gave rise to a maximal peak discharge of up to 48–54 × 104 m3/s. The transition from granular flow to debris flow occurred in the 2-km-long channel downstream of the Ronti Gad-Rishigangga confluence. The sediment deposition of 4.8 × 104 m3 and the incorporation of stream water in this zone have dominated the rheologic transition. We inferred that the intense erosion of erodible sediment due to topographic constraint plays an essential role in maintaining the mobility of the flow. Therefore, the effect of glacier ice meltwater on high mobility may be overestimated. As long as the granular flow can access the stream water in major rivers, flow transformation can easily happen because of sufficient water supply in the channel. The valley morphology in the proglacial region is commonly featured by the shift from an upstream U-shaped valley carved by glacier erosion into a downstream fluvial-erosion-dominated V-shaped valley. This geomorphic setting of glaciated tributary favors the long-distance run-out of rock and ice avalanche.

Temperature and salinity in the Bohai Sea landfast ice: Observations and modelling

Temperature and salinity are essential thermodynamic properties of sea ice. A 40-day long field campaign was carried out in winter 2020/2021 in the northern Bohai Sea in the landfast sea ice to investigate the seasonal sea ice temperature and salinity evolution. Ice thickness was measured routinely. A thermistor string was used to measure the ice temperature. Ice samples were collected for salinity by coring (Sco) and crumbing (Scr) methods. The mean vertical values of Sco and Scr were 4.8–5.8 psu and 8.3–13.8 psu, respectively. In cold ice, Sco and Scr were very close to each other. When ice temperature increased to −5 °C, Sco and Scr tended to differ from each other, and the difference was at largest at ice bottom. The brine volume fraction (BVF) ranged between 0.03 and 0.21 for Sco and 0.03 and 0.32 for Scr. The growth of ice reached a maximum of 3.7 cm/day in very cold conditions, while the average growth rate was 0.8 cm/day comparable to other seasonally ice-covered seas. A numerical sea ice thermodynamic model was applied to simulate the ice thickness with particular attention to the effect of Sco and Scr on the ice mass balance. The modeled overall ice growth rate was 0.7 cm/day and agreed well with the observations but during cold periods the simulation was biased down (1.1 cm/day); a possible reason is underestimation of the thermal conductivity in the model. The modeled ice thickness differed by 3 cm when using Sco and Scr as the input salinity profiles indicating that salinity has a minor impact on sea ice mass balance during mid-winter.

Modeling a Century of Change: Kangerlussuaq Glacier's Mass Loss From 1933 to 2021

AbstractKangerlussuaq Glacier (KG) is a major contributor to central‐eastern Greenland mass loss, but existing estimates of its mass balance over the last century are inconsistent, and specific drivers of change remain poorly understood. We present a novel approach that combines numerical modeling and a 1933–2021 climate forcing to reconstruct its mass balance over the past century. The model's final state aligns remarkably well with present‐day observations. The model reveals a total ice mass loss of 285 Gt over the past century, equivalent to 0.68 mm global sea level rise, 51% of which occurred since 2003 alone. Dynamic thinning from ice front retreat is responsible for 88% of mass change since 1933, with short‐term ice front variations having minimal impact on centennial mass loss. Compared to earlier studies, our findings suggest that KG lost 59% (or 301 Gt) less mass over the century than previously thought.

Ice plate deformation and cracking revealed by an in situ-distributed acoustic sensing array

Abstract. Studying seismic sources and wave propagation in ice plates can provide valuable insights into understanding various processes, such as ice structure dynamics, migration, fracture mechanics and mass balance. However, the harsh environment makes it difficult to conduct in situ dense seismic observations. Consequently, our understanding of the dynamic changes within the ice sheet remains insufficient. We conducted a seismic experiment using a distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) array on a frozen lake, exciting water vibrations through underwater airgun shots. By employing an artificial intelligence method, we were able to detect seismic events that include both high-frequency icequakes and low-frequency events. The icequakes clustered along ice fractures and their activity correlated with local temperature variations. The waveforms of low-frequency events exhibit characteristics of flexural-gravity waves, which offers insights into the properties of the ice plate. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of an DAS array as an in situ dense seismic network for investigating the internal failure process and dynamic deformation of ice plates such as the ice shelf, which may contribute to an enhanced comprehension and prediction of ice shelf disintegration.

Globally consistent estimates of high-resolution Antarctic ice mass balance and spatially resolved glacial isostatic adjustment

Abstract. A detailed understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) responds to a warming climate is needed because it will most likely increase the rate of global mean sea level rise. Time-variable satellite gravimetry, realized by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions, is directly sensitive to AIS mass changes. However, gravimetric mass balances are subject to two major limitations. First, the usual correction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effect by modelling results is a dominant source of uncertainty. Second, satellite gravimetry allows for a resolution of a few hundred kilometres only, which is insufficient to thoroughly explore causes of AIS imbalance. We have overcome both limitations by the first global inversion of data from GRACE and GRACE-FO, satellite altimetry (CryoSat-2), regional climate modelling (RACMO2), and firn densification modelling (IMAU-FDM). The inversion spatially resolves GIA in Antarctica independently from GIA modelling jointly with changes of ice mass and firn air content at 50 km resolution. We find an AIS mass balance of −144 ± 27 Gt a−1 from January 2011 to December 2020. This estimate is the same, within uncertainties, as the statistical analysis of 23 different mass balances evaluated in the Ice sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE; Otosaka et al., 2023b). The co-estimated GIA corresponds to an integrated mass effect of 86 ± 21 Gt a−1 over Antarctica, and it fits better with global navigation satellite system (GNSS) results than other GIA predictions. From propagating covariances to integrals, we find a correlation coefficient of −0.97 between the AIS mass balance and the GIA estimate. Sensitivity tests with alternative input data sets lead to results within assessed uncertainties.

Global and regional ocean mass budget closure since 2003

In recent sea level studies, discrepancies have arisen in ocean mass observations obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its successor, GRACE Follow-On, with GRACE estimates consistently appearing lower than density-corrected ocean volume observations since 2015. These disparities have raised concerns about potential systematic biases in sea-level observations, with significant implications for our understanding of this essential climate variable. Here, we reconstruct the global and regional ocean mass change through models of ice and water mass changes on land and find that it closely aligns with both GRACE and density-corrected ocean volume observations after implementing recent adjustments to the wet troposphere correction and halosteric sea level. While natural variability in terrestrial water storage is important on interannual timescales, we find that the net increase in ocean mass over 20 years can be almost entirely attributed to ice wastage and human management of water resources.

Impact of the combination and replacement of SLR-based low-degree gravity field coefficients in GRACE solutions

GRACE and GRACE Follow-On (FO) missions provide time-variable gravity field models of unprecedented quality that allow for the hydrological, oceanic, and ice mass change studies on a global scale. However, the very low-degree coefficients derived from GRACE and GRACE-FO are of inferior quality due to thermal effects acting on satellites and malfunctioning of the onboard accelerometers. Therefore, C20 and C30 coefficients describing the Earth’s oblateness and the pear shape of the Earth, respectively, are being replaced by values derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) in the standard GRACE solutions. This study assesses the impact of the replacement of low-degree gravity field coefficients in GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions by SLR data on the trend and seasonal signals of ice mass changes in Greenland and Antarctica. We found that the replacement of the low-degree gravity field coefficients changes the estimates of trends by 4, 8, and 22 Gt/year in Greenland, West, and East Antarctica, respectively, depending on the source of SLR coefficients and period for which the coefficients are replaced. In SLR and GRACE solutions, all coefficients of the same order and the same parity of degrees are strongly correlated. Therefore, replacing only two selected coefficients may lead to a biased solution. Thus, we propose to combine GRACE with SLR solutions up to a degree and order 10 × 10 to properly consider the sensitivity of each of the techniques to gravity field coefficients, instead of replacing two coefficients from SLR in GRACE solutions. The combined solution reduces the residual trend of post-glacial rebound from 1.2 to 0.9 Gt/year and from − 57.8 to − 57.0 Gt/year in Scandinavia and South Canada, respectively, when compared to GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions with the replacement of coefficients. The SLR-GRACE combination reduces the noise in the GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions by 8%, from 38 to 35 Gt, in the Fennoscandia region. In the periods when GRACE is at the end of its mission and observations are disrupted, the weights adjust the contribution from SLR and GRACE based on relative ratio of variances from each techniques. Thus, the combined solutions are more consistent with independent geophysical models of glacial isostatic adjustment, and the combinations are affected by smaller noise than the standard GRACE solutions and properly account for different sensitivities of SLR and GRACE techniques to low-degree time-variable gravity field coefficients.

Abrupt Holocene ice loss due to thinning and ungrounding in the Weddell Sea Embayment

The extent of grounded ice and buttressing by the Ronne Ice Shelf, which provides resistance to the outflow of ice streams, moderate West Antarctic Ice Sheet stability. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the ice sheet advanced and was grounded near the Weddell Sea continental shelf break. The timing of subsequent ice sheet retreat and the relative roles of ice shelf buttressing and grounding line changes remain unresolved. Here we use an ice core record from grounded ice at Skytrain Ice Rise to constrain the timing and speed of early Holocene ice sheet retreat. Measured δ18O and total air content suggest that the surface elevation of Skytrain Ice Rise decreased by about 450 m between 8.2 and 8.0 kyr before 1950 ce (±0.13 kyr). We attribute this elevation change to dynamic thinning due to flow changes induced by the ungrounding of ice in the area. Ice core sodium concentrations suggest that the ice front of this ungrounded ice shelf then retreated about 270 km (±30 km) from 7.7 to 7.3 kyr before 1950 ce. These centennial-scale changes demonstrate how quickly ice mass can be lost from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet due to changes in grounded ice without extensive ice shelf calving. Our findings both support and temporally constrain ice sheet models that exhibit rapid ice loss in the Weddell Sea sector in the early Holocene.

A Theory for the Balance between Warm Rain and Ice Crystal Processes of Precipitation in Mixed-Phase Clouds

Abstract Mixed-phase clouds contain both supercooled cloud liquid and ice crystals. In principle, precipitation may be initiated either by the liquid phase or by the ice phase. Ice crystals may grow by vapor diffusion to become snow (“ice crystal process”), forming “cold” precipitation. Equally, cloud droplets, when large enough, coalesce to form “warm” precipitation by the “warm rain process.” Warm rain could be supercooled and freeze as “warm” graupel. In the present paper, a new simplified theoretical analysis is provided to examine the microphysical system consisting of three species of hydrometeor, namely, cloud liquid, “cold ice” (crystals, snow), and “warm rain” (frozen or supercooled). This is obtained by nondimensionalizing and simplifying the evolution equations for the mass of each species. Analytical formulas are given for equilibria. Feedback analysis shows that the sign of the feedback is linked to the abundance of precipitation, with a neutral surface in the 3D phase space. The system’s precipitation amount explodes while in the initial unstable regime, crossing the neutral surface and approaching the equilibrium point that is a stable attractor. Positive and negative feedbacks are elucidated. In a standard case, the cold ice mass is about 1000 times larger than the warm rain mass. To illustrate the physical behavior of the theory, sensitivity tests are performed with respect to environmental conditions (e.g., aerosol, updraft speed) and microphysical parameters (e.g., riming and sedimentation rates for cold ice). Cold ice prevails, especially in fast ascent, due to its low bulk density, favoring slow sedimentation and a wide cross-sectional area for riming. Significance Statement The theory elucidates how the ice phase can prevail in the precipitation from any mixed-phase clouds with supercooled cloud liquid and crystals. The ice phase radically suppresses cloud liquid by riming when active and “wins” the competition against coalescence. This prevalence of ice is shown to arise from the low bulk density of snow. The cloud is viewed as a system of negative and positive feedbacks that prevail in realms of stability and instability in a 3D phase space.

Ion geochemistry of massive ice at Yamal Peninsula: Bovanenkovo, Erkutayakha and Mordyyakha

Ion geochemistry of massive ice at Yamal Peninsula: Bovanenkovo, Erkutayakha and Mordyyakha