Market Factors Research Articles

The chatbot as a communicative, marketing and business success factor: empirical analysis

The chatbot as a communicative, marketing and business success factor: empirical analysis

ECHO-GL: Earnings Calls-Driven Heterogeneous Graph Learning for Stock Movement Prediction

Stock movement prediction serves an important role in quantitative trading. Despite advances in existing models that enhance stock movement prediction by incorporating stock relations, these prediction models face two limitations, i.e., constructing either insufficient or static stock relations, which fail to effectively capture the complex dynamic stock relations because such complex dynamic stock relations are influenced by various factors in the ever-changing financial market. To tackle the above limitations, we propose a novel stock movement prediction model ECHO-GL based on stock relations derived from earnings calls. ECHO-GL not only constructs comprehensive stock relations by exploiting the rich semantic information in the earnings calls but also captures the movement signals between related stocks based on multimodal and heterogeneous graph learning. Moreover, ECHO-GL customizes learnable stock stochastic processes based on the post earnings announcement drift (PEAD) phenomenon to generate the temporal stock price trajectory, which can be easily plugged into any investment strategy with different time horizons to meet investment demands. Extensive experiments on two financial datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of ECHO-GL on stock price movement prediction tasks together with high prediction accuracy and trading profitability.

An Emotion-based Explanation for Bitcoin’s High-frequency Price Crash Risk

ABSTRACT We characterize the high-frequency price crash risk of Bitcoin. Using advanced text-mining techniques, we quantify emotional factors in the cryptocurrency market and investigate whether the proliferation of emotions in the cryptocurrency profession predicts the frequent occurrence of instant market crashes. We find that the cross-sectional dispersion of a catalogue of emotions is positively associated with high-frequency crash risk in the cryptocurrency market. These results are more salient for negative emotions. Differences in negative emotions may increase conflicts within a profession, resulting in idiosyncratic market outcomes.

The influence of market and institutional factors on ESG rating disagreement

AbstractThe lack of convergence between rating agencies in the assessment of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) aspects of companies leads to the so‐called ESG rating disagreement. Although this phenomenon causes confusion and uncertainty among investors, it is still little investigated. Previous research has only focused on some determinants of the disagreement, mainly related to nonfinancial disclosure and corporate aspects, while broader determinants remain unexplored. This study aims to fill this gap by analysing the effects of market value, industry sensitivity, and institutional context on disagreement between two different rating providers. To achieve this goal, a cross‐sectional analysis was conducted for 1809 companies from the S&P 1200 Global Index. The results show that companies with a better market rating, belonging to critical sectors and located in countries with a better institutional environment, have a lower level of ESG disagreement.

Exploring trends and determinants of basic childhood vaccination coverage: Empirical evidence over 41 years.

Vaccination is widely considered to be one of the most important prevention measures as a health strategy. This paper examines trends in basic childhood vaccination coverage and which country and time-dependent determinants may have influenced childhood immunization rates (1-dose BCG, 1- and 3-dose DTP (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis), 1-dose measles, and 3-dose polio) between 1980 and 2020 across 94 countries. We identify economic, inequality, demographic, health, education, labor market, environmental, and political stability factors of immunization. To do this, we use data from the annual WHO and United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) coverage estimates. The empirical analysis consists of generalized estimating equation models to assess relationships between immunization rates and socioeconomic factors. Additionally, we follow the Barro and Sala-i-Martín approach to identify conditional convergence. Our findings show the strongest positive statistically significant association between immunization rates and GDP per capita, as well as births attended by skilled health staff. Moreover, our research demonstrates conditional convergence, indicating that countries converge towards different steady states. The present study brings new insights to investigating the determinants of childhood vaccination coverage and provides significant implications for health policies.

A Microstructure Study of Indian Corporate Bond Market: A Review

This Review study explores various dimensions of the Indian capital market, encompassing both equity and bond markets. It delves into the influence of equity market factors, macroeconomic variables, and corporate bond market growth on the overall financial landscape. The relationship between equity market returns, equity market volatility (VIX), and the rupee-dollar exchange rate on bond yields. They highlight that increasing volatility in the equity market leads to a higher demand for fixed income securities, subsequently reducing bond returns. The underscores the significance of a robust corporate bond market for financial system stability, credit availability, and mitigating corporate sector crises. It reviews the growth of the Indian corporate bond market and its implications for monetary, fiscal, and economic variables. The results indicate that a comprehensive corporate bond market does not exhibit a significant positive or negative association with these variables. However, GDP emerges as a crucial factor for India's bond market development, particularly in terms of foreign participants. Lastly, the influence of macroeconomic variables on the Indian corporate bond market over a 23-year period. They reveal a significant correlation between corporate bond market issuance and foreign exchange reserves. Through multiple regression analysis, they found that all selected variables, except GDP and trade openness, significantly explain the volumes of corporate bonds. Collectively, their findings contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the interplay between equity market dynamics, corporate bond market growth, and macroeconomic factors in the Indian capital market. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers and investors, aiding in informed decision-making regarding investment strategies, market stability, and economic growth.

Local rental market dynamics and homelessness rates among unaccompanied youths, single adults, and people in families

ABSTRACT This study examines how local rental market factors differentially influence community-level homelessness rates among unaccompanied youths, single adults, and people in families with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s point-in-time estimates in January 2020, right before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States. The results from seemingly unrelated regressions for 270 metropolitan Continua of Care suggest that higher community-level rental vacancy rates were associated with lower homelessness rates among people in families but not among single adults and unaccompanied youths. Further, higher community-level crowded rates in rental units were associated with higher homelessness rates among single adults and unaccompanied youths but not among people in families. These findings suggest the differential association between rental market dynamics and homelessness among the homeless subgroups should inform subgroup-specific policy interventions and investment strategies.

Structural changes in contagion channels: the impact of COVID-19 on the Italian electricity market

AbstractOperating on electricity markets requires accurately identifying, quantifying, and measuring risk coupled with their corresponding return: this appears as a crucial point, particularly during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the present paper is twofold. First, we propose a novel econometric approach to identifying relevant market factors that capture several elements of the risk transmission mechanism inherent in energy systems. The proposed model extends Bayesian graphical models with change points to a multiple-layer set-up. Multilayer graphs encompass the two relevant channels of shock transmission: volatility and price contagion effects. The choice of these two layers seems natural because electricity prices and their spiky nature, coupled with inherent volatility, constitute essential influential elements for market players to maximize their profits. The change-point specification allows for detecting relevant changes in the electricity market. Second, we apply the proposed econometric framework to the Italian zonal markets analyzing the effects of returns and volatility contagion in several periods detected by the model. The last time intervals identified by the change-point methodology overlap the COVID-19 pandemic period. The model captures relevant abrupt changes in prices and volatility in the zonal electricity market and provides new evidence of interconnections in the zones of the Italian market related to the risk alone, price process alone, and risk versus price process relationship and their interactions.

The Market Dynamics of Collective Ignorance and Spiraling Risk

Abstract In some markets, offerings become riskier over time as producers introduce new versions that are made more affordable by increasing their risk. Existing theories suggest consumers adopt riskier versions either because they become more risk tolerant or they trade higher risk for lower price—both of which presume consumers know the risks. We reveal a third explanation: evolving market dynamics that increasingly encourage consumer inattention to risk and produce “collective ignorance.” We identify factors of collective inattention and propose a three-stage model of development of collective ignorance by analyzing the case of risk buildup in the Hungarian mortgage market. Data include archival materials and interviews with borrowers, lenders, and regulators. Initially, producers offer low-risk products, and social, cultural, and institutional factors encourage attention to risk. Consumers attentive to and capable of assessing risk become early adopters. Over time, increasing adoption and changes in market factors divert consumers’ attention from risk, shifting it to price. Under insufficient regulation, risk escalates: producers repeatedly cut price by offering increasingly risky products, while rising collective ignorance leads even risk-averse consumers to adopt them. We offer theoretical contributions to research on the social construction of risk, the attitude–behavior gap, and neoliberal responsibilization.

Predicting New York Housing Prices: A Machine Learning Approach Incorporating School, Living facilities and Real Estate Market Factors

This study aims to predict housing prices in New York by utilizing machine learning methods that incorporate factors such as schools, living facilities, and the real estate market. This paper collected extensive data, including metrics on school quality, assessments of living facility convenience, and real estate market data. Employing a regression-based machine learning algorithm, the study incorporated these factors into a predictive model. Through training and testing the model, this study discovered that school quantity and the convenience of living facilities significantly impact housing prices. The predictive model demonstrated good accuracy and predictive capability on the test set, validating the effectiveness of this approach. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for real estate market participants, policymakers, and investors to better understand and forecast housing price trends in New York.

Influence of Investor Behavior on Investment Choices among Equity Fund Managers of Listed Firms at Nairobi Securities Exchange-Kenya

Purpose: This study sought to determine how market factors influence investment decisions in Nairobi Securities Exchange-Kenya. The study would offer valuable contributions from both a theoretical and practical standpoint where it contributes to the general understanding of the drivers of investment in the Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya.
 Methodology: The study adopted positivism philosophy because the study variables were based on facts derived from the empirical literature review and the theoretical premises discussed in chapter two. Its results are quantitative and explain the relationship between the variables quantitatively. This research used a descriptive research design that allows a researcher to get adequate data from a small population cost-effectively and easily by use of a questionnaire as the research instrument. It is the structure, or the blueprint of research that directs the process of research from the formulation of the research questions and hypotheses to reporting on the research findings Krishnan, (2015). Primary data was collected using standard questionnaires with both closed and open-ended questions. Cronbach’s Alpha Test was used to test the internal consistency reliability of measurements. Data was obtained from the unit trusts and pension funds in Nairobi County. The study was conducted during the 2010- 2019 period. This study adopted a census of all fund managers the Nairobi Securities Exchange that have been actively trading for the period starting 2010-2019. The target population for this study was 129 fund managers hence a census of all equity fund managers at the NSE. Quantitative data was coded to facilitate analysis using Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS 23). The study performed tests on statistical assumptions such as test of regression assumptions and statistics used. This included tests of reliability, normality, autocorrelation, panel root test, cointegration, linearity, independence, heteroscedasticity, and multicollinearity. Data was extracted from the financial statements and NSE handbooks, Excel program was used to calculate ratios relevant to the study variables. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the study variables; group behavior, accounting information, firm characteristics, and market factors of fund managers at NSE.
 Findings: The study concluded that more attention should be focused on firm characteristics to achieve the best investment choices.
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The study was guided by finance theories that acted as its base that supported the empirical literature review which included Resource Based Theory (RBT), agency theory, herding theory and prospect theory. More attention should be paid to the predictors in the order of the magnitude of their effect on investment decision-making.

Energy price shocks and stock market volatility in an energy-importing country

We examine volatility dynamics in the Korean market using heterogeneous autoregressive models with exogenous covariates. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine War have caused substantial fluctuations in energy prices. We assess how these energy shocks affect stock market-implied volatility in Korea, a representative energy-importing country. During the pre-pandemic period, domestic and U.S. market factors affect Korea's volatility dynamics, whereas crude oil and natural gas futures prices have little explanatory power for these dynamics. In contrast, during the pandemic (war), oil (natural gas) futures prices become the key explanatory variable, and other market factors lose their explanatory power.

Shift-Share Method in Assessing the Interrelation of Employment Dynamics in Cities and Regions

Purpose of the study. The aim of the study is to analyze the dynamics of employment in major cities of the Russian Federation, including megacities, in the context of rapid innovative development, complex demographic situation, and instability of external migration flows. The research focuses on identifying factors at various levels that affect employment, with an emphasis on the interconnections of cities and regions in the hierarchical “city-region” system. Materials and methods. The paper explores the shift-share method (SSM), which allows decomposing changes in employment with highlighting the influence of the overall dynamics of the regional labor market, industry characteristics, and competitive factors of cities. A multilevel analysis using this method aims to assess the structural-dynamic links of the hierarchically interconnected “city-region” system. The research uses municipal statistics data from 81 cities of the Russian Federation for the period from 2017 to 2021. Based on the concept of sectoral division of the economy, taking into account the functional features of the included industries, the structural-dynamic employment indexes in cities were analyzed across four economic sectors. Results. The application of the SSM method yielded results that allow for a detailed examination of employment dynamics in major cities. The analysis includes the influence of the overall dynamics of the regional labor market, industry characteristics, and competitive factors of cities. The research validates the effectiveness of the shift-share method for the preliminary analysis of employment dynamics in cities with the aim of specifying the significance of the impact on it by industrial and sectoral factors at regional and local levels and their prioritization for further analysis and the development of recommendations for urban economic management. Conclusion. The study highlights the importance of analyzing employment in the context of the urban economy, especially under conditions of rapid innovative development and demographic challenges. The SSM method appears to be an effective tool for preliminary examination of employment dynamics, identifying key factors, and developing management strategies aimed at improving the economic development of Russia’s major cities.

Research on the Effect of Marketization Reform on the Price of Aviation Kerosene in China

The development of the aviation industry relies heavily on stable kerosene prices, and price fluctuations have an impact on its economic sustainability. To explore the effect of China’ s implementation of market-oriented reform of aviation kerosene prices, our study aims to evaluate the dynamic correlation between China’s aviation kerosene prices and Singapore’s CIF price, supply and demand, domestic economic development level and other market-oriented factors. To this end, in this paper, monthly data from 2006 to 2019 were selected for the variables mentioned above and, based on multiple econometric techniques, the influence of market factors on the price of aviation kerosene in China was studied. The empirical results confirm that the current Chinese aviation kerosene price has a significant linking effect with the CIF price of Singapore’s imports and is affected by the level of domestic demand. China’s aviation kerosene price is more affected by international oil and gas market factors relative to fundamental factors in the domestic market. The long- and short-term Granger causality test results also show that the market-oriented reform of China’s aviation kerosene field is beginning to take effect. Finally, the article discusses and puts forward suggestions for promoting China’s market-oriented price reform for refined oil products and the sustainable development of the aviation industry.

Relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Initiatives and Brand Loyalty in Emerging Markets

Purpose: The aim of the study was to assess the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives and brand loyalty in emerging markets. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: The relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) initiatives and brand loyalty in emerging markets is a complex interplay of various factors. Studies suggest that CSR initiatives positively influence brand loyalty in these markets, as consumers tend to perceive socially responsible companies more favorably and are more likely to develop strong emotional connections with such brands. However, the effectiveness of CSR initiatives in building brand loyalty can vary depending on the specific context of the emerging market, including cultural, economic, and regulatory factors. Moreover, the authenticity and transparency of CSR efforts play a crucial role in shaping consumer perceptions and trust towards the brand. Companies that genuinely integrate CSR into their business strategies and demonstrate tangible social and environmental impact are more likely to enjoy long-term loyalty from consumers in emerging markets. Additionally, engaging in community development programs and addressing local societal needs can further enhance brand loyalty by fostering a sense of goodwill and reciprocity among consumers. Implications to Theory, Practice and Policy: Stakeholder theory, social identity theory and institutional theory may be use to anchor future studies on assessing the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives and brand loyalty in emerging markets. Develop CSR initiatives that are tailored to the socio-economic, cultural, and regional contexts of specific emerging markets, aligning them with the prevalent concerns and values of local consumers to enhance brand loyalty. Implement policies that incentivize and encourage businesses operating in emerging markets to adopt CSR practices, recognizing the potential of CSR initiatives to drive brand loyalty while contributing to positive social and environmental outcomes.

An hedonic evaluation of the impacts of vertical coordination on business performance amongst apple producers in Morocco

We present an econometric analysis of the marketing of apples in Morocco that investigates the relationship between vertical coordination arrangements and the prices of apples for farmers. In this study, the hedonic method is used to evaluate the vertical coordination of apple fruit chains by analyzing the marginal implicit price of different product characteristics. We examine the variables influencing apple prices for farmers, comprising intrinsic factors related to the farm's characteristics and quality attributes such as fruit variety and fruit diameter. Additionally, we consider extrinsic variables associated with marketing factors, including vertical coordination systems, payment terms, seasonality of sale, cold storage, and geographical origin. Based on a nationally representative survey of 190 apple growers in the southeast of Morocco, an empirical analysis is conducted. Results highlight the pivotal role of apple growers' experience in elevating farm-level prices, indicating a deeper understanding of market dynamics. Significant price variations are tied to quality attributes, notably a 19.2% premium for larger apples (75–85 mm diameter), indicating market preference. The economic analysis underscores the influence of apple varieties, with Golden commanding a 16.4% higher price, indicating heightened consumer demand. Additionally, the study found that marketing factors, vertical coordination models, payment terms, seasonality of sale, cold storage, and geographical origin also have a positive impact on apple prices. Furthermore, vertical coordination models positively impact apple and prices provide producers with guidance for effective supply chain coordination. These insights, extending beyond theory, serve as a roadmap for policymakers to support the agricultural sector. Equipped with knowledge of business performance, farmers can implement targeted measures to enhance the marketing value of their agricultural products, fostering resilience and profitability in the Moroccan apple sector.

Does Location Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Stadium Location and Attendance at National Women’s Soccer League Matches

This study examines the impact of stadium locations on attendance in the National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL). We develop a match-level attendance model incorporating control variables such as market factors and consumer preferences to assess attendance for NWSL games. Our results indicate that attendance drops the further an NWSL stadium is from the city center. Specifically, the coefficients suggest an inverse relationship between attendance at NWSL matches and the distance to the city center, indicating that for every mile further an NWSL team was from the city center, attendance declined by about 6.6%. Our findings show that some of the perceived differences in demand for women’s soccer may be due to infrastructural inequalities such as stadium locations. Therefore, one way to boost demand and attendance in professional women’s sport, specifically soccer, is to move away from suburban stadiums and toward downtown locations.

Regional disparities, dynamic evolution, and spatial spillover effects of urban-rural carbon emission inequality in China

ObjectiveThis study recalculates the carbon emissions of urban and rural residents in China, analyzing the dynamic evolution trends of urban and rural carbon emissions. It explores the spatial spillover effects centered around the inequality in carbon emissions between urban and rural areas.MethodsThe study calculates the carbon emissions of urban and rural residents in each province based on the IPCC method. Non-parametric kernel density estimation is employed to depict the dynamic evolution characteristics of national, urban, and rural carbon emissions. The Theil Index is used to measure the disparities in urban and rural carbon emissions in major strategic regions, further applying the Theil Index to evaluate the inequality of urban and rural carbon emissions across provinces. This helps identify the driving factors affecting the inequality of urban and rural carbon emissions and their spatio-temporal effects.FindingCarbon emissions from urban and rural residents in China present a divergent development pattern. Urban emissions have increased, with inter-provincial disparities widening; rural emissions tend to stabilize, with slight growth in inter-provincial gaps. The overall inequality of carbon emissions in various regions of China experiences a three-phase journey of rise, decline, and stabilization. Urban inequality first increases then decreases, while rural inequality gradually lessens, showing clear regional and urban-rural differences. Market and government factors significantly impact the inequality of urban and rural carbon emissions. The development of the digital economy aids in reducing inequality and generates significant spatial spillover effects. The relationship between economic development level and carbon emission inequality is U-shaped. Industrial structure optimization can reduce urban-rural inequality, but its spatial spillover effect is not significant. Government intervention has limited effects, while environmental regulations may increase inequality. Opening up to the outside world helps reduce inequality, and the impact of population density is complex.

Community-level predictors of doubled-up homelessness

ABSTRACT Existing research has examined the community-level factors associated with sheltered and unsheltered homelessness in the United States, generally finding that housing, labor market, and social safety net factors have significant associations with geographic variation in homelessness. Some definitions of homelessness include doubling up, defined as staying with others because of housing loss or economic hardship. We examine the community correlates of doubled-up homelessness across metropolitan areas using a measure that draws on American Community Survey microdata. We present evidence that area median rent and unemployment are positively associated with rates of doubling up among the population in or near poverty, and that income inequality and unemployment are positively associated with rates of doubling up in the total population. In contrast to recent studies of sheltered and unsheltered homelessness, we find a negative relationship between access to cash public assistance and doubling up rates within both the total population and those who are low income.

Elucidating the challenges to Bumiputera entrepreneurs’ participation in the domestic furniture and wood products market in Malaysia

The limited market share and growth of Bumiputera entrepreneurs in domestic furniture and wood product industry in Malaysia remains a long-standing challenge. Therefore, a study to examine the market factors that contribute to the failure to thrive among Bumiputera entrepreneurs, registered with the Malaysian Timber Industry Board, was conducted. The results revealed that most of the respondents were micro- and small-sized enterprises, with sales focused on the domestic and contract markets. They were mostly producing sofa and kitchen cabinets, made to order, and sold in domestic markets within the vicinity. The respondents also indicated that the major challenges that impeded their ability to penetrate and capture market share include the limited production volume, lack of product diversity, limited government contract, and inter-ethnicity business collaboration. The Chi-square and Pearson Product Moment Correlation tests found that the significant challenges were only the limited production volume due to small company size, lack of product diversity, and the limited inter-ethnicity business collaboration among Bumiputera entrepreneurs. Therefore, policymakers should take heed that despite the many years of targeted and affirmative assistance to expand the domestic market share of Bumiputera entrepreneurs, the results remain poor, and inevitably, a new approach to Bumiputera entrepreneurs’ development must be adopted.