Market Research Bureau Research Articles

The significance of financial expectations in predicting consumer expenditures: a quarterly analysis

This paper examines how variables which describe the expectations of consumers can contribute to the explanation of observed expenditure patterns and how measured series of such expectations can be used in a forecasting model to improve the prediction of short-term consumer expenditures. The expectations data are based on the British Market Research Bureau's Financial Expectations Survey and the respective series that are derived are tested in correlation and regression exercises against quarterly aggregate consumer expenditure series. The exercise finds that the information contained in these financial expectations has significant value for predicting expenditures in the period 1 to 12 months ahead. The forecasting models based on the expectational data generally perform as well as those based on conventional economic variables and the leading indicator properties of the expectations, combined with their rapid availability, enhance their value as a potential source of forecasting information.

The Law of Elections and Business Interest Groups in Britain

R ECENT WRITINGS by British political scientists have stressed the role of pressure groups as a third force to the already well-described and well-known duality of party and government.1 There has been an increasing amount of material in print which details various aspects of this vast phenomenon. As yet, much of the research has scarcely uncovered the salient features of this subject. In part, this has been occasioned by the scarcity of available sources especially on this side of the Atlantic. Whatever materials are available, are by no means widely disseminated or sufficiently detailed to allow any semblance of comprehensive study. However, the increase in scholarly materials from British writers promises to provide some remedy for the present deficiencies while underscoring developments in British politics within the last decade, particularly the emergence of extra-party interest groups defying party and government. This has been most true of those organized business interests whose existence was, and still is, threatened by the nationalization program of the Labour party. The election of 1950 is most noteworthy in this respect. Recently, certain charges, first voiced in 1949 and partially answered by the courts in 1952, asserting the illegality of certain types of pressure group behavior, have been renewed in connection with the forthcoming general election. These charges have been occasioned by a public opinion survey on attitudes toward nationalization sponsored by various firms of the steel industry. This survey was directed by Mr. Colin Hurry and was implemented by the British Market Research Bureau. It involved some two million questionnaires localized in 127 marginal constituencies.2 As they were in 1949, these charges have been raised by the Labour party in the press and in Parliament, and question the legality of political propaganda originating from pressure groups with regard to the British law of elections. The exploration of this question is the major concern of the following discussion. The conclusions derived should lead to further questions as to (a) the role of pressure groups in the political processes of the United Kingdom; and (b) the nature of the British political process in general. Mr. Hurry's project is in some respects an extension and a refinement of techniques used by various companies in the period 1949-51. Methodologically speaking, there is a great deal of similarity between this undertaking and that of the insurance companies in 1949, although the latter was on a lesser scale. Hurry's attempt goes beyond a mere survey of attitudes. Rather, the suggestion

Readings in Market Research.

Journal Article Readings in Market Research Get access Readings in Market Research. A selection of papers by British authors. (London: British Market Research Bureau, 1956. Pp. ix + 235. 35s.)Modern Market Research. A guide for business executives. By M. K. Adler. (London: Crosby Lockwood, 1956. Pp. 158. 15s.) Margaret Hall Margaret Hall Somerville College, Oxford Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 67, Issue 266, 1 June 1957, Pages 317–319, https://doi.org/10.2307/2227801 Published: 01 June 1957

An Experimental Comparison between Coders

1 This experiment was planned and discussed at all stages by the Survey Research Unit Committee, the members of which were Mr. T. Cauter, Dr. H. Durant, Mr. B. P. Emmett, Mr. L. Moss and Mr. D. H. Pickard, together with the members of the Division of Research Techniques of the London School of Economics. The professional organisations taking part in the experiment were the Audience Research Department of the British Broadcasting Corporation, the British Institute of Public Opinion, the British Market Research Bureau, and Research Services Ltd. We wish to thank the members of these organisations for their cooperation, and the members of the Committee for their helpful discussions of earlier drafts of this paper. Thanks are due also to Miss A. I. Harris of the Government Social Survey for suggesting suitable questions.